Bengals can create more cap space in 2021, by extending players this week.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(12-31-2020, 04:32 PM)fredtoast Wrote: What the hell are "ephemeral non-stats"?

Lawson is good at getting pressure/knocking down the QB.  Stats prove it.  Pressuring and/or knocking down the QB effects a QBs passing efficiency.  Again stats prove this.

(12-31-2020, 04:34 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: As has been pointed out to you by others, there are more than just sacks used to evaluate the disruptiveness of a pass rusher.  Lawson is among the top in hurries and QB hits, that qualifies his effectiveness.  If this were a different season, where we were also getting a good interior push, his sack total would likely be much higher.

The man has put together a good year on an injury riddled and identity struggling defense.  I agree with not franchise tagging him.  However, he's worth keeping around, and I sincerely hope that the team is able to work out a fair deal for him.

(12-31-2020, 05:24 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I definitely understand your point that he needs to "get home" more, but there's a difference between a 5-sack guy who only gets like 20 pressures and Lawson, who has over 40 pressures.

Carlos Dunlap got paid $13.5 mill APY and only hit double-digit sacks one season in his entire career.
So yes, Lawson is going to get paid rather well from some team who believes he'll turn all those pressures into more sacks.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-pff-data-study-how-hits-coverage-sacks-and-other-pressure-affect-nfl-offenses

The problem is that "qb hits" encompass both a guy who hits a QB while he is throwing and also a guy who hits a QB after he's thrown and they are vastly different results. Meanwhile pressures are good, but only compared to no pressure.

You hurry/pressure a QB and it only drops from 60% to 57.5%. You hit a QB after he's thrown and it only drops from 60% to 52.7%.

You sack a QB and it drops from 60% to 20%.

From an EPA standpoint, you need to hit a QB after he's thrown MORE than 9 times to equal a sack. Hurrying a QB without a hit doesn't even register on the EPA. So you need to hit a QB after he's thrown 93.5 times in order to equal 10 sacks from an EPA standpoint. Even hitting a QB while he's in his throwing motion is still only 1/2 of a sack's worth in EPA.

Dunlap got paid, but he was both healthy and an active tackler. He brought more to the table than just pass rush. Carl Lawson has 47 solo tackles in 50 games, Dunlap had 40 solo tackles in 2014 alone. Lawson's worth is almost exclusively in pass rush, and he can't finish those plays and make them truly valuable. He didn't even have a single forced fumble in 3 years before this year and he has 0 career passes defensed, so he doesn't contribute anything there either.

If he wasn't wearing black and orange, people on this board would be much less hyped about the idea of paying a 5 sack pressure DE who doesn't tackle, deflect passes, or force many turnovers, and has extensive injury red flags.