NFL Draft: A Scientific Approach

[impactplaya]

(01-29-2021, 06:42 PM)psychdoctor Wrote: This post is not for everyone; but I am asking for you input.  

As casual fans and aspiring fantasy GM, sometimes we try to improve team via FA, draft, and coaching changes; but at close inspection, it seems more complicated.  

I was thinking if we were to use a scientific approach to improve team performance, maybe we can identify ways or variables that would lead the Bengals to a championship season; at least in theory.    

Let's say there are 4 independent variables; two are static (unchangeable) and two are dynamic (changeable).  The independent variable is what influences outcome.  Therefore, the 4 IV would be:

Team Organization (ownership, money spent, training facilities) unfortunately this is static,  
Coaching (play calls, schemas, best-fit use of players) dynamic,
Team Composition  (chemistry, formal role usage, team fit, team leaders) dynamic, and
Talent, this is static.  

I have Talent separate because talent is a stable construct and is considered innate whereas team comp is dynamic and changes.  It would seem to draft the best talent works best.  Would you add to any of the IV?  


The problem I am having is at the dependent variable.  The dependent variable could be game outcome or wins. The problem of using "wins" as a dependent variable is other factors influence game outcome like weather, chance, injuries, and officials.   Also, winning the Superbowl is viewed as the ultimate goal but winning the Superbowl rarely occurs for most teams so maybe not the best measure.  The Mike Brown "being competitive" doesn't work because you cannot measure a competitive variable with consistency.  What does "competitive" mean?  Does it mean losing close games?  So are wins the best way to measure team's progress?  Is talent more important than meeting team needs in the draft?  

Also, I am Curious; what percent (%) do you place on team needs vs. Talent when you conduct Mock Draft Simulation?  


Some would consider a draft pick a "homerun" if the BPA is at team's highest need.  But what if it is a weak draft at team need?  Shouldn't you just select the best talent?

The NFL.is a bottom.line business. You either win or lose.
If you can win at a .640 clip you have a good chance to make the playoffs.
You don't get points for almost wins or moral victories.
The numbers support that Zac will never be  able to win consistantly at the NFL level. 
 When I conduct mock drafts I usually ready for need in the 
1st 3-rds. Then after that I draft best player available outside
Of QB in the next 4 RDs