Next Gen Stats Aggressiveness %

[Whatever]

(02-25-2021, 09:17 AM)Au165 Wrote: The stat is a bit misleading but also a good sign for a rookie. Here is the thing, rookies tend to be "scared" to throw into tight windows in the NFL because they don't want to make a mistake. That isn't always a bad thing though because there are plenty of tight windows in the NFL you can't throw into that they just haven't figured out yet. On the other hand, as QB's get more experience they learn where those windows are and they know when to take the check down versus trying to make what is called a "drive throw" into a tight window. You will see a lot of those vets there throw a lot more check-downs and screens which obviously aren't going to be "aggressive" but they are the right plays, and some of that comes back to the scheme as well.

Now I am not saying Burrow had guys running free all day, you can always use better weapons, but I can go back and find plenty of guys who were running free that wouldn't have been tight-window throws he could have taken but chose to be more aggressive into a tougher throw. That fearlessness is a good thing because he is learning by doing and it will help him progress a lot more quickly than being too scared to make the throw. Interestingly enough, I was just listening to one of the draft guys I follow talk about this being Trevor Lawrence's greatest attribute. He is not scared to throw into tight windows and expects his receiver to make the play that needs to be made.

Coming full circle, you have to give your receivers time to uncover. If you are instantly moved off your spot at snap you can't let them uncover and you have to go ahead and chuck it up. There is a lot of complexity here so I wouldn't say it supports or disproves anything but it is nice to see a rookie QB taking his shots and not being scared of mistakes.

A couple of things to point out are that Brandon Allen was 7th in Aggressiveness at over 19%.  When you look at teams that had multiple QB's with enough attempts to qualify, you notice trends with teams that also have deficiencies at the skill positions.  Tua and Fitzmagic are both up over 20% for the Dolphins as are Trubisky and Foles for the Bears(who have nothing besides Robinson).  Both players trending that high indicates a lack of open targets, although Burrow obviously trended significantly higher due to his willingness to stick it in to tight windows.  Another big sticking point is Dalton was 5th in Aggressiveness in '19 at 20.8% and I don't think anyone will try to argue that Andy Dalton is an extremely aggressive QB.  In '18 he was at 17.3%(AJ injured mid year) and in '17 with a healthy AJ and crap OL he was at 16.5%.  Interestingly, he was at 17.9% in '16 when we still had Whit and Zeitler, but lost AJ for a big chunk of the year.  His Aggressiveness trended up or down based on the quality of his weapons, not so much the quality of his OL.  Also interesting is the fact that he was down to 15% this year in Dallas throwing to Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and CeeDee Lamb.  

OL play doesn't seem to appreciably affect a WR's separation stat.  For example, Boyd had a 2.8 yards/separation in '16 when we still had Whit and Zeitler.  He was 2.7 this year, 2.6 in '19, and 2.9 in '18(he didn't qualify in '17 due to his benching and not receiving enough targets.  It also tends point against the scheme argument due to Boyd having played in 3 different offenses during that time.