Insider information: Things I think I know heading in to the first day of the draft

[Bengalbug]

Bengals are in a good spot at 9 no matter what.

Even if the bengals are blowing smoke with this hoping someone trades up for Ross, that means there is a high probability of an elite prospect falling. I'm going to go on the law of averages and say a qb gets picked before us. Also if Ross goes before us, and mcaffrey to the panthers has legs than someone great will fall.

If however everything goes according to the expert rankings, which it rarely does, the bengals have the pick of the litter of the next 20 or so prospects. I can't find a scenario like last year happening where the bengals are left wondering how the hell that just happened.

[Whatever]

(04-26-2017, 12:01 PM)Au165 Wrote: I am not sure who Rivers is. First name? I am not a fan of Kamara. I think it is a case where they are putting too much value in potential over production.

Edit: Never mind you mean Derek Rivers. I'd rather grab one of the more polished guys in the 2nd.

I agree on Kamara. I can understand people not wanting Mixon, but Kamara has character flags of his own and nowhere near the talent or production.  

[pulses]

(04-26-2017, 12:28 PM)Whatever Wrote: I agree on Kamara. I can understand people not wanting Mixon, but Kamara has character flags of his own and nowhere near the talent or production.  

Kamara was splitting time with another RB last year thats why his numbers were not outstanding but still very good. Rivers has huge upside with speed and strength to match. I can't find the link but I was reading last night where they like Willis but are not in love with him. That tells me they probably will not take him in the 2nd or 3rd round and will take another DE instead.

[Au165]

(04-26-2017, 12:31 PM)pulses Wrote: Kamara was splitting time with another RB last year thats why his numbers were not outstanding but still very good. Rivers has huge upside with speed and strength to match. I can't find the link but I was reading last night where they like Willis but are not in love with him. That tells me they probably will not take him in the 2nd or 3rd round and will take another DE instead.

My question is why couldn't the guy seize the spot as the "lead" back. If your a fringe first round guy you better be the no questions top guy on your own team. That is why I have a problem with Kamara.

[pulses]

(04-26-2017, 12:35 PM)Au165 Wrote: My question is why couldn't the guy seize the spot as the "lead" back. If your a fringe first round guy you better be the no questions top guy on your own team. That is why I have a problem with Kamara.

O J Howard wasnt the top guy on his team but he is a top 10 talent....so your argument on that isnt valid. His draft stock is based off talent and his ceiling and he can do it all.

[Au165]

(04-26-2017, 12:40 PM)pulses Wrote: O J Howard wasnt the top guy on his team but he is a top 10 talent....so your argument on that isnt valid. His draft stock is based off talent and his ceiling and he can do it all.

Actually it's very valid. OJ Howard wasn't the top TE on his team? I get various positions can be featured differently, I can't get behind guys at the same position. Kamara basically split carries down the middle with another back. This is actually one of the reasons I think Samaje Perine is possibly a great steal.

[lostpoet2]

(04-26-2017, 12:20 PM)yang Wrote: Daniel Jeremiah's NFL mock yesterday had Ross going in the 2nd.  Most have him going at 18. He might be all that and a bag of nickels too, but I still don't see him at 9.  Hopefully we can trade back and nab him.    

The problem there is we have 11 picks and all them will not make the team.  We need more quality than quantity.   Perhaps using multiple picks to move back up?

This is exactly what we should do.  There are various trade calculators online, but here is a quick one I found:
http://www.calculatorsoup.com/calculators/games/draft-pick-value.php

Let's say that Arizona wants to jump up to 9 because they are in love with drafting Mahomes as a developmental QB: We could swap #9 as well as our first 6th round pick with Arizona for #13 and their 3rd rounder (#77).  I would much rather pick up an extra 3rd rounder in order to move back 4 slots and still grab the best receiver on the board.

[pulses]

(04-26-2017, 12:47 PM)Au165 Wrote: Actually it's very valid. OJ Howard wasn't the top TE on his team? I get various positions can be featured differently, I can't get behind guys at the same position. Kamara basically split carries down the middle with another back. This is actually one of the reasons I think Samaje Perine is possibly a great steal.

Perine wasnt the best back on his team either LOL

[Au165]

(04-26-2017, 12:57 PM)pulses Wrote: Perine wasnt the best back on his team either LOL

Exactly and he isn't a fringe first round guy. See there is something called value. Kamara has it too, but not as a fringe 1st rounder. Everyone in the draft has value at certain spots Perine in the mid 3rd to 4th has better value than Kamara close to the 1st for two guys who neither were the top guys on their teams.

[pulses]

(04-26-2017, 12:58 PM)Au165 Wrote: Exactly and he isn't a fringe first round guy. See there is something called value. Kamara has it too, but not as a fringe 1st rounder. Everyone in the draft has value at certain spots Perine in the mid 3rd to 4th has better value than Kamara close to the 1st for two guys who neither were the top guys on their teams.

Kamara is not a fringe 1st rounder. He is listed as a 2-3 in most places I have saw. PLenty of value there. I get it you dont like Kamara and that is fine but the dude is loaded with talent and he is the kinda RB we need not another 240lb back.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

Great post SHRacerX. Sound and astute observations. I am all for John Ross at 9, sure, would i rather trade down
and grab the man? Of course but you have to take the guy you like and this guy would really open up the Offense
if he can stay healthy. You cannot teach speed and this guy is not just speed.

Ross just sets up Defenders and takes off, he is as smooth as silk. The comparison to Antonio Brown i think is a
good one. Adding a player like this will completely open up the middle of the field and take pressure off of the QB
and the running game. As you say SHR, backs those Safeties up.

Slant routes to this guy could go all the way he is so fast.

[Au165]

(04-26-2017, 01:01 PM)pulses Wrote: Kamara is not a fringe 1st rounder. He is listed as a 2-3 in most places I have saw. PLenty of value there. I get it you dont like Kamara and that is fine but the dude is loaded with talent and he is the kinda RB we need not another 240lb back.

I have seen him going in the 1st or as some here say to us at 41. I believe both of those positions are way too high. If we are talking late 2nd to 3rd I could see it. As for the 240 pound comment you are missing a bigger picture about how we deploy backs. We are going to platoon meaning someone to compliment Gio makes more sense then someone who is similar.

[Speedy Thomas]

Lap agrees with you, SH. John Ross. Apparently they are satisfied with medical issues.

[masterpanthera_t]

(04-25-2017, 09:08 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: Here is what I have learned.  


That's all I've got, folks.  Here's to a draft that we look back on and remember as the one that started the Championship run!!!

Thanks for the updates SHRacerX, but sincerely I hope you're blowing smoke up our posterior.  I say that with respect!  It makes me paranoid to see that the Bengals would be giving out so much info on their draft thoughts to someone on the outside.  This combined with Lapham being allowed in to see the board and knowing that he would talk about it a day or two in advance just doesn't strike me as very smart on the Bengals' part because I'm sure some teams have wised up to this by now.  I hope all this is a smokescreen done on purpose by the Bengals, but I am afraid not, since Lap has been predicting Bengals 1st round picks correctly (or pretty close) for the last few years.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-26-2017, 02:20 PM)masterpanthera_t Wrote: Thanks for the updates SHRacerX, but sincerely I hope you're blowing smoke up our posterior.  I say that with respect!  It makes me paranoid to see that the Bengals would be giving out so much info on their draft thoughts to someone on the outside.  This combined with Lapham being allowed in to see the board and knowing that he would talk about it a day or two in advance just doesn't strike me as very smart on the Bengals' part because I'm sure some teams have wised up to this by now.  I hope all this is a smokescreen done on purpose by the Bengals, but I am afraid not, since Lap has been predicting Bengals 1st round picks correctly (or pretty close) for the last few years.

True, leaks are never a good thing lol

[yang]

(04-26-2017, 11:54 AM)Au165 Wrote: Foreman was one of the most productive backs in college this year. He has a very good size to speed ratio and, contrary to what some believe, has the power to pick up the tough yards. The thing you have to like about him is he is a true one cut back, he sees a hole and attacks it, past the line of scrimmage he has deceptive wiggle for a bigger back. If we got him in the 3rd or later I would be pumped.

So he is Jeremy Hill?  When I watch film he looks like that only slower and I didn't even see him break that many tackles.  3rd round?  Okay.  But why?  I jut don't see a big improvement if any.  Just my two cents.

[yang]

(04-26-2017, 12:19 PM)Au165 Wrote: Peter King is dead set on us taking Hasson Reddick and it scares the shit out of me. I think the guy could be good, but I am not sure he is going to play MLB in a 4-3. If we plan to move Burfict to MLB maybe it works, but as a MLB Reddick at 9 would seriously bother me.

Yeah, I agree that would be horrible!!  I don't get the love for this guy either.   

And really, rather than Ross at 9 I would rather have Samuel in the 2nd.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-26-2017, 02:44 PM)yang Wrote: So he is Jeremy Hill?  When I watch film he looks like that only slower and I didn't even see him break that many tackles.  3rd round?  Okay.  But why?  I jut don't see a big improvement if any.  Just my two cents.

Foreman was extremely fast on his forty at his Pro-Day, i cannot remember the exact time but it was crazy fast for his size.

As far as i have seen the downers on Foreman is his ability to pick up the blitz and the fact he wasn't asked to catch the ball much at Texas.

[Au165]

(04-26-2017, 02:44 PM)yang Wrote: So he is Jeremy Hill?  When I watch film he looks like that only slower and I didn't even see him break that many tackles.  3rd round?  Okay.  But why?  I jut don't see a big improvement if any.  Just my two cents.

Every bigger back isn't Jeremy Hill. If you say he is Jeremy Hill as a rookie I could see the similarities as they both hit the hole hard and can move with some agility after they get past the LOS. If you say he is Jeremy Hill right now I completely disagree. As for the speed he is much faster than Hill was coming out. His speed to weight ratio based on his 40 is one of the best in the last decade for a HB.

He has a lot of similarities to Jordan Howard who dropped in the draft last year (didn't do much in passing game at IU), but ended up as probably the second best back out of the class last year behind Zeek.

[*SHRacerX*]

(04-26-2017, 12:19 PM)Au165 Wrote: Peter King is dead set on us taking Hasson Reddick and it scares the shit out of me. I think the guy could be good, but I am not sure he is going to play MLB in a 4-3. If we plan to move Burfict to MLB maybe it works, but as a MLB Reddick at 9 would seriously bother me.

I can tell you that I was shocked that the Bengals took Vigil in the 3rd round last year, as Billings was still available.  They see the LB position in nickel 70% of the time, so you are going to have one of them off the field already.  I can't see them choosing Reddick.