2018 Cap Space

[*ochocincos*]

I know it's the offseason before the 2017 season and the Bengals still have ~$18 million in cap space left, but I think it's important to look at next year's cap space to get an idea of what will happen with the roster.

According to Spotrac, the estimated minimum cap for 2018 is expected to be $168 mill.
The Bengals have ~$150 mill already locked for 2018 and that's without any extension to Burfict, Eifert, Minter, Bodine, Hill, or Clarke.
That is very little to work with given about $10-12 mill will be reserved for the draft and injuries.

Spotrac has also calculated estimate contract averages for Eifert and Burfict based on similar contracts across the NFL:
Burfict - $10.1 million average
Eifert - $9.2 million average

With the amount of cap space available for 2018, it could be very difficult to extend both, even with some up-front money from the remaining 2017 cap.

However, it's worth noting the following big contracts for players entering their final year in 2018:
Brandon LaFell - $4 million, $0 dead cap (save $4 million if cut)
Adam Jones - $6.666 million, $666k dead cap (save $6 million if cut)
Darqueze Dennard - $8.5 million 5th year option (save that if cut before the option kicks in next offseason)
Michael Johnson - $6.125 million, $1.125 million dead cap (save $5 million if cut)

I think that we could see at least two of the four above dropped in order to free up some cap money for the upcoming 2018 FAs specifically Burfict.
I would predict LaFell and Jones as the highest chance based on the high draft picks from the previous two years.
I can also see MJ cut if Clarke and/or Willis really come on by the end of 2017.

Last, I think next year is a strong year for OL and we could see two OL selected within the first three rounds. Based on the performance of Ogbuehi/Fisher, that could be two interior OL or one OT and one G/C.

What do you think happens next year cap-wise?

[BengalChris]

(06-04-2017, 01:53 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I know it's the offseason before the 2017 season and the Bengals still have ~$18 million in cap space left, but I think it's important to look at next year's cap space to get an idea of what will happen with the roster.

According to Spotrac, the estimated minimum cap for 2018 is expected to be $168 mill.
The Bengals have ~$150 mill already locked for 2018 and that's without any extension to Burfict, Eifert, Minter, Bodine, Hill, or Clarke.
That is very little to work with given about $10-12 mill will be reserved for the draft and injuries.

Spotrac has also calculated estimate contract averages for Eifert and Burfict based on similar contracts across the NFL:
Burfict - $10.1 million average
Eifert - $9.2 million average

With the amount of cap space available for 2018, it could be very difficult to extend both, even with some up-front money from the remaining 2017 cap.

However, it's worth noting the following big contracts for players entering their final year in 2018:
Brandon LaFell - $4 million, $0 dead cap (save $4 million if cut)
Adam Jones - $6.666 million, $666k dead cap (save $6 million if cut)
Darqueze Dennard - $8.5 million 5th year option (save that if cut before the option kicks in next offseason)
Michael Johnson - $6.125 million, $1.125 million dead cap (save $5 million if cut)

I think that we could see at least two of the four above dropped in order to free up some cap money for the upcoming 2018 FAs specifically Burfict.
I would predict LaFell and Jones as the highest chance based on the high draft picks from the previous two years.
I can also see MJ cut if Clarke and/or Willis really come on by the end of 2017.

Last, I think next year is a strong year for OL and we could see two OL selected within the first three rounds. Based on the performance of Ogbuehi/Fisher, that could be two interior OL or one OT and one G/C.

What do you think happens next year cap-wise?

That $18M can be rolled over to next year, which will easy this some. The team could front load a contract extension for Burfict or Eifert or both and use up some of the $18M from this year.

Michael Johnson and LaFell are the prime candidates to be cut if they end 2017 on the bench.

[SunsetBengal]

If they have the money right now, why not get Burfict extended, now? Show him some appreciation, give him an extra chunk of money for this season, as well as lock him in for an additional 3 years.

[magikod]

(06-04-2017, 04:04 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: If they have the money right now, why not get Burfict extended, now?  Show him some appreciation, give him an extra chunk of money for this season, as well as lock him in for an additional 3 years.

i agree

then work on eifert next season if he stays healthy

[Au165]

I think it's funny they take a wait and see approach in Eifert because of injuries but fail to mention Vontaze hasn't played a full 16 game season since 2013. Vontaze has arguably a more severe injury history as the concussion thing only gets worse and the micro fracture is still a time bomb, more of a question of when not if it goes.

[*ochocincos*]

(06-04-2017, 08:49 PM)Au165 Wrote: I think it's funny they take a wait and see approach in Eifert because of injuries but fail to mention Vontaze hasn't played a full 16 game season since 2013. Vontaze has arguably a more severe injury history as the concussion thing only gets worse and the micro fracture is still a time bomb, more of a question of when not if it goes.

You're right in that Burfict hasn't played a full 16 game season since 2013. However, there are valid reasons that that was the case.
Obviously in 2014 he suffered his knee injury five games in and had to get the microfracture surgery, so he was out the rest of the season. It's obviously a very lengthy recovery time, so Burfict was placed on PUP to start the 2015 season. However, he returned after the minimum games missed (six) and played the remainder of the 2015 season. He only played 11 games last year, but he had to miss three games due to suspension, not because of injury. Only two games were missed from injury (concussion, missed last two games).

Eifert has suffered multiple concussions too, so the concussion thing is a wash between both.

There's also no guarantee that the microfracture surgery is a "ticking time bomb". Sure, there have been multiple athletes who have not been able to really have any career after the surgery (most notably Greg Oden) but there have been plenty others who have (Steve Yzerman, John Stockton, Jason Kidd, Amare Stoudemire). In the NFL, Hall of Famer Bruce Smith played six more seasons following microfracture surgery. Both Burfict and Clowney had the surgery in 2014 but came back to play double digit games the following two seasons. So while there is obviously that risk of not fully regaining your pre-surgery abilities, you can't yet determine how long a player will be able to play on said surgery or how effective he/she will be post-surgery.

At this point, Burfict has not shown signs of issues with said surgically-repaired knee, so I say he deserves a 4-year contract extension that would make him a Bengal until he's 31.

I think the thing with Eifert is it always seems like it's one injury after another. If it's not a concussion, it's an ankle. If not that, it's his back. Yada yada yada. And it's felt more like he's been out at more critical moments. I still would like to see Eifert stay healthy for a 10-game stretch and perform well during that stretch. We've already seen that with Burfict the past two years. We haven't seen it with Eifert since his injury against the Steelers in 2015.

[Au165]

(06-05-2017, 10:44 AM)ochocincos Wrote: You're right in that Burfict hasn't played a full 16 game season since 2013. However, there are valid reasons that that was the case.
Obviously in 2014 he suffered his knee injury five games in and had to get the microfracture surgery, so he was out the rest of the season. It's obviously a very lengthy recovery time, so Burfict was placed on PUP to start the 2015 season. However, he returned after the minimum games missed (six) and played the remainder of the 2015 season. He only played 11 games last year, but he had to miss three games due to suspension, not because of injury. Only two games were missed from injury (concussion, missed last two games).

Eifert has suffered multiple concussions too, so the concussion thing is a wash between both.

There's also no guarantee that the microfracture surgery is a "ticking time bomb". Sure, there have been multiple athletes who have not been able to really have any career after the surgery (most notably Greg Oden) but there have been plenty others who have (Steve Yzerman, John Stockton, Jason Kidd, Amare Stoudemire). In the NFL, Hall of Famer Bruce Smith played six more seasons following microfracture surgery. Both Burfict and Clowney had the surgery in 2014 but came back to play double digit games the following two seasons. So while there is obviously that risk of not fully regaining your pre-surgery abilities, you can't yet determine how long a player will be able to play on said surgery or how effective he/she will be post-surgery.

At this point, Burfict has not shown signs of issues with said surgically-repaired knee, so I say he deserves a 4-year contract extension that would make him a Bengal until he's 31.

I think the thing with Eifert is it always seems like it's one injury after another. If it's not a concussion, it's an ankle. If not that, it's his back. Yada yada yada. And it's felt more like he's been out at more critical moments. I still would like to see Eifert stay healthy for a 10-game stretch and perform well during that stretch. We've already seen that with Burfict the past two years. We haven't seen it with Eifert since his injury against the Steelers in 2015.

All true. My point though is that for some weird reason no one is asking Burfict to play a healthy year before talking contract. You can say with Eiffert it seems like one thing after another, but for Burfict it has been for the last couple years too. The concussion thing isn't a wash because Burfict literally hits people with his head multiple times every game, it is not a requisite of Eifert's game to hit someone with his head every game. Not saying either should have to play a year first or not, just saying it is weird that Burfict's lengthy injury history is being somewhat ignored in this discussion.

My personal opinion though is both need to be resigned, and in both cases there should be some incentive tied to games played.

[Shake n Blake]

Most of the guys you mention are cheap, won't get raises (the only time we have to worry about a player eating up more cap space is if he gets a raise) and you also have to consider that the salary cap will likely go up again next year. IMO, there's currently little to worry about and we're in very good shape going into next year. We probably could've spent $8-10 million more in free agency and still would've been okay.

Plus as you mention, several big salaries will likely be dumped next year. Pacman, LaFell and Michael Johnson are likely candidates that would save upwards of almost $15 million. If they part with Dennard, that's 23 million. Add in rollover, and we're likely looking at $40+ million in cap space again, with only Burfict and Eifert to worry about. Both players that most teams will likely avoid due to cost/risk ratio.

[Au165]

(06-05-2017, 01:07 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Most of the guys you mention are cheap, won't get raises (the only time we have to worry about a player eating up more cap space is if he gets a raise) and you also have to consider that the salary cap will likely go up again next year. IMO, there's currently little to worry about and we're in very good shape going into next year. We probably could've spent $8-10 million more in free agency and still would've been okay.

Plus as you mention, several big salaries will likely be dumped next year. Pacman, LaFell and Michael Johnson are likely candidates that would save upwards of almost $15 million. If they part with Dennard, that's 23 million.

I agree. I think Pacman LaFell and Johnson all are cut next year, so we will have some cap from those guys.

[BengalChris]

(06-05-2017, 01:07 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Most of the guys you mention are cheap, won't get raises (the only time we have to worry about a player eating up more cap space is if he gets a raise) and you also have to consider that the salary cap will likely go up again next year. IMO, there's currently little to worry about and we're in very good shape going into next year. We probably could've spent $8-10 million more in free agency and still would've been okay.

Plus as you mention, several big salaries will likely be dumped next year. Pacman, LaFell and Michael Johnson are likely candidates that would save upwards of almost $15 million. If they part with Dennard, that's 23 million. Add in rollover, and we're likely looking at $40+ million in cap space again, with only Burfict and Eifert to worry about. Both players that most teams will likely avoid due to cost/risk ratio.

I have to agree completely. The team is pretty good at having around $40M to spend.

Then, of course, there's the annual Hobson article saying how we really only have $18M or $19M to spend. Of course we always seem to end up with extra at the end that can be rolled over.

With regards to Burfict and Eifert I more or less expect the team to make low offers to both sighting their number of games missed due to injury as the reason. We had around $40M this year and failed to make decent offers to our best two free agents.

[*ochocincos*]

(06-05-2017, 01:07 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Most of the guys you mention are cheap, won't get raises (the only time we have to worry about a player eating up more cap space is if he gets a raise) and you also have to consider that the salary cap will likely go up again next year. IMO, there's currently little to worry about and we're in very good shape going into next year. We probably could've spent $8-10 million more in free agency and still would've been okay.

Plus as you mention, several big salaries will likely be dumped next year. Pacman, LaFell and Michael Johnson are likely candidates that would save upwards of almost $15 million. If they part with Dennard, that's 23 million. Add in rollover, and we're likely looking at $40+ million in cap space again, with only Burfict and Eifert to worry about. Both players that most teams will likely avoid due to cost/risk ratio.

You may be right about the guys outside of Burfict, Eifert, and Minter will be cheap, but we see plenty of players get at least some kind of decent bump in salary once they come off their rookie deals. Most of us probably thought the Bengals overpaid TJ Johnson to stick around for 2 year, $3.5 million. I don't think it's unreasonable to think the Bengals could overpay Russell Bodine or Will Clarke even to remain a Bengal. Bodine is making nearly $2 million now (19th highest C), so I wouldn't be shocked to see the Bengals extend him for $3 mill a year which would make him a top 15 C in the league cap-hit wise (although I hope they don't). Kevin Minter was signed to a one-year deal at $4.25 mill so if he plays well, he'll likely command $5+ mill a year from someone next year. I don't see the Bengals keeping both Burfict and Minter if Burfict gets $8+ mill a year.

You're right, the salary cap is likely to go up. Spotrac has it expected to increase by $1 million from 2017 to 2018. That's likely very low given the cap has increased by about $12 million each of the past two years.

With the Bengals expecting three comp picks next year (3rd for Zeitler, 5th for Whitworth, and a 6-7 for Peko I think?) and the depth at WR and CB, I think Jones and LaFell will be cut barring some big injury or just terrible performance from the other players at the positions. I think MJ could be gone if the Bengals were to get some solid production from the other DEs, but I expect he's definitely a lower chance to drop over LaFell and Jones because WR and CB have 1st round picks waiting in the wings whereas DE does not. I don't see the Bengals walking away from both Jones and Dennard, just one for 2018. I think whichever one they keep will need to have a very good 2018 to deserve another contract for 2019+. I think a CB and DE will be drafted next year to fill potential losses from Jones/Dennard and Clarke/MJ. I don't think a WR should be taken (at least not until round 6-7) since the Bengals are already talking about seven WRs. Dropping LaFell next year would bring the count back to the normal six.

[THE PISTONS]

(06-04-2017, 05:29 PM)magikod Wrote: i agree

then work on eifert next season if he stays healthy

Eifert is awesome when he's healthy...but I'd have trouble giving him a $45 million contract over 5 years with his injury history.

Even if he stays healthy this year...he's banged up too much to sign long-term.

[J24]

I imagine the Bengals will have close to or over 50 Million in cap space if you include cuts and roll over. I only​ see us signing Vontaz this August so our cap should not hurt to much.

[XenoMorph]

(06-04-2017, 01:53 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Adam Jones - $6.666 million, $666k dead cap (save $6 million if cut)

[lostpoet2]

Would it be possible to structure a contract on a per game basis, or perhaps partially guaranteed and the rest a games-played bonus? If this is possible, Eifert could get a contract that paid him $3 million per year plus $450-500k for each game played, so that he could earn a total of $10-11 million if he plays all 16 games but only $7-ish if he is hurt half the season?

[SunsetBengal]

(06-07-2017, 07:31 PM)lostpoet2 Wrote: Would it be possible to structure a contract on a per game basis, or perhaps partially guaranteed and the rest a games-played bonus?  If this is possible, Eifert could get a contract that paid him $3 million per year plus $450-500k for each game played, so that he could earn a total of $10-11 million if he plays all 16 games but only $7-ish if he is hurt half the season?

Check out the thread that asks Are there ways of getting around the Salary Cap.  There are some pretty good posts in there, that answer your question better than I can.

This one:  http://thebengalsboard.com/Thread-Are-There-Ways-Around-The-Salary-Cap

[jfkbengals]

(06-07-2017, 07:31 PM)lostpoet2 Wrote: Would it be possible to structure a contract on a per game basis, or perhaps partially guaranteed and the rest a games-played bonus?  If this is possible, Eifert could get a contract that paid him $3 million per year plus $450-500k for each game played, so that he could earn a total of $10-11 million if he plays all 16 games but only $7-ish if he is hurt half the season?

Of course, but that doesn't circumvent the salary cap.  Likely to be earned incentives are applied to the cap at the start of the season, while remaining incentives will officially be applied after they are attained.  They can cause cap violations with the league if the room is not available.

[XenoMorph]

(06-07-2017, 07:31 PM)lostpoet2 Wrote: Would it be possible to structure a contract on a per game basis, or perhaps partially guaranteed and the rest a games-played bonus?  If this is possible, Eifert could get a contract that paid him $3 million per year plus $450-500k for each game played, so that he could earn a total of $10-11 million if he plays all 16 games but only $7-ish if he is hurt half the season?

you could possibly there are incentive laden contracts  but you have to keep any amount he can earn that season available on the cap space.

So in your example if his base deal is 3 mil...      And he could earn up to 11  we would have to keep 8 mil available just incase he hits all those marks.


You could have him sign a base deal of 1 mil per year and give a huge signing bonus...  or roster bonus