Finally some life showing in Dennard.

[*SHRacerX*]

(08-17-2017, 12:25 AM)mikey6866 Wrote: Dennards career looks alot like Dre K.  Message board whopping boy.  Hes never really been healthy and hasnt really gotten his shot, much like Dre K early in his career.  I still have faith in Dennard.  Think hes gonna open alot of eyes this year if he can finally stay healthy.

They need quality depth, no doubt, but his contract next year would be pretty pricey...Adam Jones won't be able to play forever, but he has the savvy to be a decent slot corner in addition to playing outside.  I think Dennard is woefully miscast in the slot.  He has never looked comfortable there, and when he was covering Evans (very well given zero pass rush) he was lined up as the outside CB.  That is his natural spot.  

With Dre extended long term, and WJIII looking every bit like the real deal, Dennard would be relegated to the backup role.  Josh Shaw is a better option in the slot.  Russell is making a strong bid to be the backup and they like Benewhatshisname pretty well, also.  

Dennard will have to look really good in order to get a fifth year as a backup CB because that will be a heck of a paycheck.  

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(08-17-2017, 04:52 AM)wolfkaosaun Wrote: That's not true at all. 1st round picks are picked to be improvements and help better your team.

Since 2012's Draft Class, there has been 44 Pro-Bowl players drafted in the 1st round.

That's 44 players out of 159 players (NE lost their 1st round pick in 2016).
Which includes: RGIII, Cordarelle Patterson, Todd Gurley, and Eric Reid

Teams know they aren't going to get amazing players all the time. Sometimes they fill needs and what works best for their system rather than best player overall. That's why there's players that haven't been voted to the Pro Bowl or All-Pro that are still being productive.

IE: Tannehill, Zeitler, Cooks, Matthews, and Mariota.

I'm not saying there won't be stars in the 1st, because clearly they are. But teams go into the draft knowing the 1st round isn't fully of All-Pro studs. Teams do use 1st round picks for solid starters because it's better to have a solid player than a hole on your team.

Nothing is certain in the NFL.

Yes, 44 out of 159 picks (27.67%) and in that same time span, there were:
-15 Pro-Bowl players drafted in the 2nd round out of 157 picks. (9.55%)
-9 Pro-Bowl players drafted in the 3rd round out of 173 picks. (5.20%)

So 44 is a HUGE number when put in perspective. If your team is going to completely neglect getting better in FA, you NEED to hit on draft picks fairly consistently. So yes, a guy who only becomes a solid starter after 5 years is a bust as a first round pick. There's a lot of busts in the draft. It's just when people try to put it on your team's players, suddenly it's time to get defensive. There's people still trying to say Andre Smith wasn't a bust after being picked 9th overall and producing exactly 1 good season and 2 mediocre ones in 7 years.


By the way.. since 2012 the Bengals have:
-1 Pro Bowler in the 1st round out of 6 picks. (16.67%)
-0 Pro Bowlers in the 2nd round out of 6 picks. (0.00%)
-0 Pro Bowlers in the 3rd round out of 7 picks. (0.00%)

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(08-17-2017, 12:31 AM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Naw, Dre K was making big plays back in 2014.  He has since developed into a regular.  Dennard, on the other hand, has never really amounted to much.  However, it may not be all his fault.  Aside from the injuries, he's been miscast in the slot role, when he exclusively played boundary corner in college.

My thoughts exactly.

[mikey6866]

(08-17-2017, 03:02 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I said they're both busts *as first round picks*.

Nobody uses first round picks to get "solid starters" 5 years later. If Kirkpatrick was a 4th or 5th round pick, he would have been a great pick. He wasn't. He was the 17th overall pick in the draft, and it took him 5 years to become a solid starter. That's a bust. The same way that a guy who is taken in the 7th round and does nothing but be a decent special teamer for 3-4 years before exiting the league is not a bust, because that's a good return on a 7th round pick.

That's not to say Kirkpatrick can't have a good career as a decent starter from now on. It just means when we look back on the draft history, it was a bad decision to use the 17th overall pick on him because 1st round picks need to be stars, not take 5 years to become solid starters.

Granted, Dennard might be a bust regardless of 1st, 2nd, or 3rd round status. He's shown less in his first three years than Kirkpatrick did.

I didnt realize you considered 1st round busts as non pro bowl players.  We have a completely different gage of what would label a guy as a bust.  Whats your opinion of Zeitler?  By your definition of 1st round bust he would fit the bill since he developed into a solid starter and is now the highest paid g in the league.  He did get playing time quicker than Kirkpatrick where there was less competition and he was healthier, but he has never made a pro bowl.  He is a solid, not elite player.  There are only a handful of stars in the 1st round of every draft with the exception of a few great draft classes.  Labeling one of the better corners in the league a bust because he was drafted in the 1st round seems a little crazy to me.  He didnt become a full time starter until year 4 (number of factors went into that..you can debate that all day but it will never change the fact that once he got his opportunity he has taken advantage and developed into a solid player.)   Dennard is now coming into his 4th year.  I will wait to pass judgement on him until he sees some more time on the field.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(08-17-2017, 04:47 PM)mikey6866 Wrote:
I didnt realize you considered 1st round busts as non pro bowl players.  We have a completely different gage of what would label a guy as a bust.  Whats your opinion of Zeitler?  By your definition of 1st round bust he would fit the bill since he developed into a solid starter and is now the highest paid g in the league.  He did get playing time quicker than Kirkpatrick where there was less competition and he was healthier, but he has never made a pro bowl.  He is a solid, not elite player.  There are only a handful of stars in the 1st round of every draft with the exception of a few great draft classes.  Labeling one of the better corners in the league a bust because he was drafted in the 1st round seems a little crazy to me.  He didnt become a full time starter until year 4 (number of factors went into that..you can debate that all day but it will never change the fact that once he got his opportunity he has taken advantage and developed into a solid player.)   Dennard is now coming into his 4th year.  I will wait to pass judgement on him until he sees some more time on the field.

I didn't realize I ever said anywhere that they had to be Pro Bowlers, or they're a bust.

What I DID say was that 1st round picks can't take 5 years to develop into a "solid starter" and not be considered a bust.

Would you trade a 1st round pick in 2012 for a 1st round pick in 2016? Because that's essentially what they did with Kirkpatrick taking 5 years to turn into a solid starter. Nobody wants that with their first round pick. You want stars, or barring that, immediate impact starters. Even 2nd year impact starters are acceptable depending on the position. Anything less than that is a miss.

Just like the Jags consider Reggie Nelson a bust. He turned out to be a great player for the Bengals and the Raiders, but the Jags used a 1st round pick on him and got a bad return from it. Bust =/= bad career. It just means the guy was not worth his pick.

- - - - - - - -

Dennard is heading into his fourth year, he played over 30% of the defensive snaps last year. If that's not enough time to pass judgement on if he was a good 1st round pick or not, then that alone is proof enough that it was a bad 1st round pick. Good 1st round picks don't take 4 years to MAYBE be able to judge if it was a good pick or not.

[Essex Johnson]

(08-17-2017, 05:40 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I didn't realize I ever said anywhere that they had to be Pro Bowlers, or they're a bust.

What I DID say was that 1st round picks can't take 5 years to develop into a "solid starter" and not be considered a bust.

Would you trade a 1st round pick in 2012 for a 1st round pick in 2016? Because that's essentially what they did with Kirkpatrick taking 5 years to turn into a solid starter. Nobody wants that with their first round pick. You want stars, or barring that, immediate impact starters. Even 2nd year impact starters are acceptable depending on the position. Anything less than that is a miss.

Just like the Jags consider Reggie Nelson a bust. He turned out to be a great player for the Bengals and the Raiders, but the Jags used a 1st round pick on him and got a bad return from it. Bust =/= bad career. It just means the guy was not worth his pick.

- - - - - - - -

Dennard is heading into his fourth year, he played over 30% of the defensive snaps last year. If that's not enough time to pass judgement on if he was a good 1st round pick or not, then that alone is proof enough that it was a bad 1st round pick. Good 1st round picks don't take 4 years to MAYBE be able to judge if it was a good pick or not.

The last two years have been solid years for Dre.. injuries always play a role in draft picks.. you can go through every team and find players that are picked high that have had less snaps due to injuries.. hell numerous 1/2 round picks are out of football in their 5th year.

I don't consider either a bust.. injuries have held both back... no surprise when Dre finally got healthy he performed.. I am hopping Dennard is finally in the same spot.. i believe this is his first camp that he went injury free and no surprise the rumor is it was a solid camp for him... stay healthy Dennard and perform...

[*SHRacerX*]

(08-17-2017, 03:16 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: By the way.. since 2012 the Bengals have:
-1 Pro Bowler in the 1st round out of 6 picks. (16.67%)
-0 Pro Bowlers in the 2nd round out of 6 picks. (0.00%)
-0 Pro Bowlers in the 3rd round out of 7 picks. (0.00%)

Ouch, but isn't a small part of that due to the fact that, like some other good teams, a lot of the rookies are almost red-shirted their rookie season?

It is a painful stat, nonetheless...

[Murdock2420]

(08-19-2017, 09:42 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: Ouch, but isn't a small part of that due to the fact that, like some other good teams, a lot of the rookies are almost red-shirted their rookie season?

It is a painful stat, nonetheless...

That and the Bengals have gotten into this bad habit lately of drafting injured guys and rehabbing them or just the dumb luck (WJIII) of having their top pick get hurt. 

Of course I don't care if Dennard or Dre or any of the top picks become Pro-Bowlers (Stupid popularity contest like the Hall of Shame in Canton) all I want to see is solid play at their position that translates to the team getting W's.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(08-19-2017, 09:42 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: Ouch, but isn't a small part of that due to the fact that, like some other good teams, a lot of the rookies are almost red-shirted their rookie season?

It is a painful stat, nonetheless...

Cowboys since 2012:
-3 Pro Bowlers in 1st round out of 5 picks (60.00%)^
-0 Pro Bowlers in the 2nd round out of 4 picks. (0.00%)
-0 Pro Bowlers in the 3rd round out of 5 picks. (0.00%)

- - - - -
Packers since 2012:
-1 Pro Bowler in the 1st round out of 5 picks (20.00%)
-2 Pro Bowlers in the 2nd round out of 6 picks (33.67%)^
-0 Pro Bowlers in the 3rd round out of 4 picks. (0.00%)

- - - - -
Patriots since 2012:
-2 Pro Bowlers in the 1st round out of 4 picks (50.00%)^
-1 Pro Bowler in the 2nd round out of 6 picks (16.67%) ^
-0 Pro Bowlers in the 3rd round out of 7 picks (0.00%)

- - - - -
Broncos since 2012:
-0 Pro Bowlers in the 1st round out of 4 picks (0.00%)
-0 Pro Bowlers in the 2nd round out of 6 picks (0.00%)
-0 Pro Bowlers in the 3rd round out of 5 picks (0.00%)

- - - - -
(^ denotes a % higher than league average in that round)

...And then I got tired of looking them up. Either way, all those teams were much more successful than the Bengals (while using less picks), with the exception of Denver, who was heavily involved in Free Agency to mask their recent drafting woes. (Less requirement to hit on draft picks when you're bringing in Peyton Manning, Emmanuel Sanders, Aqib Talib, Louis Vasquez, Evan Mathis, DeMarcus Ware, and TJ Ward.)