Autumn Equinox Mock

[*ochocincos*]

Today is the Autumn Equinox a.k.a. the first day of Fall. Woohoo for it officially being Fall (even though it feels like Summer)!
This mock is indeed early. I'm aware that players will move up and down. This is based on some projected rounds I've seen.
This mock also factors in offseason cuts, re-signings, and acquisitions in FA.

Enjoy!

2018 Cap space = $18 mill

Cut:
Andy Dalton - Save $13.9 mill
Michael Johnson - Save $5 mill
Adam Jones - Save $6 mill (or remove Dennard's option and save $8.5 million)
Brandon LaFell - save $4 mill
---------------
+$29 mill
$18+29= $47 mill

Re-sign:
Huber - $3 mill
Harris - $1 mill
Chris Smith - $2 mill
---------------
$47-6 = $41 mill

Add:
Weston Richburg, C NYG - $9 mill
Nate Solder, LT NE - $14 mill (Or sign Andre Smith again if going cheap)
--------------------
$41-23 = $18 mill
+ ~$10 mill rollover from 2017 = $28 mill reserve for draft picks, extensions for Dunlap and Atkins, etc.

2018 draft:
EDIT - I predict the Bengals end up with 5-6 wins and pick in the 5-10 range.

1) Connor Williams, OT Texas (6'6", 320 lb) - Williams just suffered a MCL and PCL strain early this season, plus be suffered a meniscus tear that needed surgery, but the good news is he suffered no significant ligament damage and should be healthy well ahead of the draft.
Williams is a mauler and has the ability to play both OT spots. If the Bengals pick up Solder, Williams should be a very, very good plug-and-play RT. If the Bengals instead get a cheaper OT (maybe re-sign Andre Smith), Williams has all the tools to become a franchise LT. Unlike Ogbuehi, Williams is not all potential either. VOch Lombardi's film session on Williams and other OTs - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZfpV6qjZHA

2) Luke Falk, QB Washington St (6'4", 225 lb) - If the Bengals miss out on Sam Darnold, I'm taking a QB with accuracy, poise, pocket awareness, and production. Falk is also a guy with great touch that has an underrated arm. He'll be skipped over for some bigger arm guys like Josh Allen or Mason Rudolph, and Lamar Jackson may also go ahead of him due to his rushing ability, but I believe Falk will be a better NFL QB than all of those QBs. He reminds me of Derek Carr. Watch this film session video by Voch Lombardi - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=93lJ6wPMa3M
I'm also confident Falk could be available because there haven't been five QBs taken in the 1st round this millenium.

3) Troy Fumagalli, TE Wisconsin (6'6", 248 lb) - Fumagalli is a well-rounded TE that would fit well with the Bengals. He is an especially good blocker, which this Bengals team needs to succeed. A bonus is that Fumagalli also has experience being a lead blocker, so he could also make Hewitt expendable if the Bengals wanted/needed to save another $2 mill each season over 2018 and 2019.

3 comp for Zeitler) Josey Jewell, LB Iowa (6'2", 236 lb) - Modern day ILB that can do a little bit of everything. Coaches will like his over 300 total tackles, 17 TFL, 7.5 sacks, 4 INTs, and 17 PBUs to date. Between Burfict, Vigil, Rey, and Evans, Jewell wouldn't be forced into action right away.

4) Da'Shawn Hand, DL Alabama (6'4", 288 lb) - By cutting MJ to allow Willis to start and free up some cash, the Bengals could use another base DE. Hand has experience all over the DL and could play that Gilberry role of base DE and interior pass rusher. He could even potentially be groomed as Atkins' replacement if Atkins leaves in FA after 2018.

5) Godwin Igwebuike, S Northwestern (6'0", 212 lb) - Well-rounded, versatile safety that can tackle, stuff the run, and defend the pass. Might be a PS candidate in 2018 and promote in 2019 when Derron Smith hits FA.

5 comp for Whit) Deatrick Nichols, CB USF (5'10", 190 lb) - Depth CB to replace either Jones or Dennard on the roster, whichever is let go. Nichols is underrated due to his size and playing at USF, but he'd be a quality backup CB. He's had 4 INTs each seaason 2015-2016 and 49+ total tackles each of those seasons as well.

6) Daniel Carlson, K Auburn (6'4", 223 lb) - Carlson hasn't gotten off to a good start so far this year (5/8) but he's been consistently a very good K in his previous 3 years. He has the leg to hit mid-50's FGs and has never missed an XP. His college career FG% is 81.3%, just slightly under Zane Gonzalez's mark of 82.8%, and everyone wanted him over Elliott (77.9% college career).

7) LJ Scott, RB Michigan St (6'1", 230 lb) - The Bengals will need another bruiser to replace Jeremy Hill when he likely leaves in FA next year. Scott is a between-the-tackles runner who should be able to replace him adequately.

[thillan]

Love the breakdown on this, especially the bold moves you made for cuts!

What's your thoughts on the concern of head injury history with Falk?

[Hammerstripes]

No thanks on Connor Williams. I've seen a few games and he has been beaten like a drum.

The way this season is going, I think we are definitely going to pick in the top 5. If that's the case, we need a QB.

[*ochocincos*]

(09-25-2017, 10:33 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: No thanks on Connor Williams. I've seen a few games and he has been beaten like a drum.

The way this season is going, I think we are definitely going to pick in the top 5. If that's the case, we need a QB.

Fine, replace Williams with McGlinchey.

Who is your QB of choice after Darnold? What if that guy is gone?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[*ochocincos*]

(09-25-2017, 09:02 PM)thillan Wrote: Love the breakdown on this, especially the bold moves you made for cuts!

What's your thoughts on the concern of head injury history with Falk?

I'm not too concerned with the head injury. It happened two weeks ago and he's played very well in both games since then. If it becomes a lingering problem by the time of the draft, then yea I would have pause.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Hammerstripes]

(09-25-2017, 10:45 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Fine, replace Williams with McGlinchey.

Who is your QB of choice after Darnold? What if that guy is gone?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I'm actually not a Darnold guy at this point.  I'd much rather have Josh Rosen from UCLA.  

He takes some chances, but that is somethign that I would welcome with AJ on the field.  It seems like Dalton is always airmailing the ball out of bounds.  With our defense, he can afford to take a few chances with AJ.

Now, if we are sitting at #5 and it looks like a QB that we want might go ahead of use, we need to use some of these comp picks and move up a couple spots and get somebody.

[*ochocincos*]

(09-27-2017, 12:45 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: I'm actually not a Darnold guy at this point.  I'd much rather have Josh Rosen from UCLA.  

He takes some chances, but that is somethign that I would welcome with AJ on the field.  It seems like Dalton is always airmailing the ball out of bounds.  With our defense, he can afford to take a few chances with AJ.

Now, if we are sitting at #5 and it looks like a QB that we want might go ahead of use, we need to use some of these comp picks and move up a couple spots and get somebody.

I didn't much for Josh Rosen previously because of his lower completion percentage in college compared to some other QBs. I like QBs who have 65% or higher at least in their final year in college. Rosen's first two years were 59-60%. I was really worried about his accuracy, as I've read the same concerns in some scouting reports.

From watching some film on Rosen though, his receivers did drop a lot of passes. This year he's at 65% but I'll be keeping an eye on him to see if that holds up.

I'd be fine with either Darnold, Rosen, or Falk. I will be irritated if Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson are picked by the Bengals. I don't think they will succeed in the NFL.
Mason Rudolph may be ok, but from the few games I've watched of him, he didn't feel pressure well. Plus, I get worried Rudolph is a clone of Brandon Weeden.

Also, I disagree with Dalton not taking chances downfield. He's actually thrown a decent number of interceptions when trying to force it to AJ Green downfield.

[Hammerstripes]

(09-27-2017, 01:25 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I didn't much for Josh Rosen previously because of his lower completion percentage in college compared to some other QBs. I like QBs who have 65% or higher at least in their final year in college. Rosen's first two years were 59-60%. I was really worried about his accuracy, as I've read the same concerns in some scouting reports.

From watching some film on Rosen though, his receivers did drop a lot of passes. This year he's at 65% but I'll be keeping an eye on him to see if that holds up.

I'd be fine with either Darnold, Rosen, or Falk. I will be irritated if Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson are picked by the Bengals. I don't think they will succeed in the NFL.
Mason Rudolph may be ok, but from the few games I've watched of him, he didn't feel pressure well. Plus, I get worried Rudolph is a clone of Brandon Weeden.

Also, I disagree with Dalton not taking chances downfield. He's actually thrown a decent number of interceptions when trying to force it to AJ Green downfield.

I'm not just talking about downfield chances.  Look at the Green Bay game, how many times did Dalton site there and then just dump the ball away?

The one thing that I love about Rosen is that he stepped in as a freshman and was one of the better QBs in college.  The stage wasn't too big for him.  He's taken a pretty crappy UCLA team and made them competitive.

I will shoot my TV if Josh Allen is taken in Round 1 or 2.  He's simply not ready.

I wouldn't mind Lamar Jackson, but I don't like him nearly as much as Darnold and Rosen

[*ochocincos*]

(09-27-2017, 02:32 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: I'm not just talking about downfield chances.  Look at the Green Bay game, how many times did Dalton site there and then just dump the ball away?

The one thing that I love about Rosen is that he stepped in as a freshman and was one of the better QBs in college.  The stage wasn't too big for him.  He's taken a pretty crappy UCLA team and made them competitive.

I will shoot my TV if Josh Allen is taken in Round 1 or 2.  He's simply not ready.

I wouldn't mind Lamar Jackson, but I don't like him nearly as much as Darnold and Rosen

Sam Darnold did the same, but better IMO.
USC before Darnold went 8-6 (6-3 in conf play).
USC with true freshman Darnold went 10-3 including a 9 game winning streak, won the PAC 12 and Rose Bowl.
USC is also still undefeated this year at 4-0.

Meanwhile, UCLA went from a 10-3 team in 2014 to 8-5 in 2015 with freshman Rosen.
Then in 2016, sophomore Rosen led UCLA to 3-5 before being out for the remainder of the season.
And is Rosen really making them competitive again this year? They are 2-2 with Rosen under center.

I'm not saying Rosen is bad, I'm just saying his impact on the overall success of the team may not be as high as you indicate.

[J24]

1.)Why release Andy when we can easily trade him for at least a low round 1?
2.) drafting a LB that early is stupid for this team considering we have two pretty good ones in Virgil and Burfict. Also we have two good backups in Evans and Rey. We play Nickle what 70% already we don't need to draft a bench player.
3.) Just no to a college Tackle right now they very rarely work out let's draft a DE like Key or Hubbard. Guys we know can play and fit our standards.

[*ochocincos*]

(10-02-2017, 12:36 AM)Jakeypoo Wrote: 1.)Why release Andy when we can easily trade him for at least a low round 1?
2.) drafting a LB that early is stupid for this team considering we have two pretty good ones in Virgil and Burfict. Also we have two good backups in Evans and Rey. We play Nickle what 70% already we don't need to draft a bench player.
3.) Just no to a college Tackle right now they very rarely work out let's draft a DE  like Key or Hubbard. Guys we know can play and fit our standards.

1) You can't assume you'll find a trade partner. If so, great, then do it. But I didn't go on that assumption.
2) I don't consider a LB with a 3rd round comp pick being that early. And I don't know where you think Vigil is some great player already, as he's not (yet).
3) That's your opinion, but I don't see the Bengals going DE in Round 1 with Dunlap still on the team. Yes, he's entering a contract year next year, but there should be plenty of cap room to extend him, especially if certain cuts are made to declining veterans. The Bengals also invested a 3rd and 4th round pick in Willis and Lawson. Last, the Bengals haven't gone first round DL since Justin Smith 16 years ago. Just my opinion, but the likelihood of Bengals going DL in the first round is extremely low.

[J24]

(10-02-2017, 09:41 AM)ochocincos Wrote: 1) You can't assume you'll find a trade partner. If so, great, then do it. But I didn't go on that assumption.
2) I don't consider a LB with a 3rd round comp pick being that early. And I don't know where you think Vigil is some great player already, as he's not (yet).
3) That's your opinion, but I don't see the Bengals going DE in Round 1 with Dunlap still on the team. Yes, he's entering a contract year next year, but there should be plenty of cap room to extend him, especially if certain cuts are made to declining veterans. The Bengals also invested a 3rd and 4th round pick in Willis and Lawson. Last, the Bengals haven't gone first round DL since Justin Smith 16 years ago. Just my opinion, but the likelihood of Bengals going DL in the first round is extremely low.

1.) I assume it because he is a good QB and their teams that would be interested in it.
2.) Virgil is a 3 down player and has been a good player for us. There is no need to draft a guy who would play just 30%or 40%  of the time.
3.) Dunlap Will be 29 and entering his final year of his contract. It is time for the Bengals to draft a DE in the First. Offensive lineman are not that easy to find and take a while to develop. The Bengals should fill that need in free agency or via trade the. Through the draft.

[*ochocincos*]

(10-02-2017, 04:08 PM)Jakeypoo Wrote: 1.) I assume it because he is a good QB and their teams that would be interested in it.
2.) Virgil is a 3 down player and has been a good player for us. There is no need to draft a guy who would play just 30%or 40%  of the time.
3.) Dunlap Will be 29 and entering his final year of his contract. It is time for the Bengals to draft a DE in the First. Offensive lineman are not that easy to find and take a while to develop. The Bengals should fill that need in free agency or via trade the. Through the draft.

If I'm going DE and DT that I think could replace Dunlap and Atkins, I like Christian Wilkins (DT Clemson) in Round 1 and Duke Ejiofor (DE Wake Forest) in Round 2.

What team do you think would trade a first round pick or early second rounder for Dalton to also allow the Bengals to also get a QB in the top 40?

[J24]

(10-02-2017, 05:04 PM)ochocincos Wrote: If I'm going DE and DT that I think could replace Dunlap and Atkins, I like Christian Wilkins (DT Clemson) in Round 1 and Duke Ejiofor (DE Wake Forest) in Round 2.

What team do you think would trade a first round pick or early second rounder for Dalton to also allow the Bengals to also get a QB in the top 40?

Redskins, Cardinals, Vikings, Jaguars, and  Browns all would be serious listeners I would think. Also would add Pittsburgh to the list if Ben retires. 

[Jpoore]

I'd rather have jt Barrett than falk. Looks horrible. That need to be a rt. And replace Williams with Adams.

[*ochocincos*]

(10-06-2017, 08:12 PM)Jpoore Wrote: I'd rather have jt Barrett than falk. Looks horrible. That need to be a rt. And replace Williams with Adams.

Explain how Falk "looks horrible" because he didn't look horrible from what I've seen in the games I've watched and his stats would say otherwise anyway...
In six games this year, Falk has thrown for 2000 yards, 19 TDs, and just 2 INT with a 71.8% completion percentage.
2016: 4468 yards, 38 TDs, 11 INT with a 70% completion percentage.
2015: 4561 yards, 38 TDs, 8 INT, 69.4% completion percentage.
2014: 1859 yards, 13 TDs, 7 INT, 64.2% completion percentage.

I think it's more that you want a mobile QB and Luke Falk is not that. He's a methodical QB that goes through his reads.
You also really like Barrett because you are a big Ohio St fan. We found that out last year.
Barrett is not going to be any kind of decent QB in the NFL.

EDIT - If you want to replace Williams with McGlinchey or Trey Adams, fine. Pick your favorite OT prospect. No objections there.

[Jpoore]

(10-09-2017, 09:40 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Explain how Falk "looks horrible" because he didn't look horrible from what I've seen in the games I've watched and his stats would say otherwise anyway...
In six games this year, Falk has thrown for 2000 yards, 19 TDs, and just 2 INT with a 71.8% completion percentage.
2016: 4468 yards, 38 TDs, 11 INT with a 70% completion percentage.
2015: 4561 yards, 38 TDs, 8 INT, 69.4% completion percentage.
2014: 1859 yards, 13 TDs, 7 INT, 64.2% completion percentage.

I think it's more that you want a mobile QB and Luke Falk is not that. He's a methodical QB that goes through his reads.
You also really like Barrett because you are a big Ohio St fan. We found that out last year.
Barrett is not going to be any kind of decent QB in the NFL.

EDIT - If you want to replace Williams with McGlinchey or Trey Adams, fine. Pick your favorite OT prospect. No objections there.

See we disagree. Barrett takes care of the ball. He has a great arm. But it's more about value for me. Fall in high 1st? Or Barrett in high 4th? And jt doesn't throw picks. And yeah I have Adams in a tier of his own as far as the goes. And while I'm a huge osu fan I don't think I'm letting hat come in on play with Barrett.

[*ochocincos*]

(10-11-2017, 12:10 AM)Jpoore Wrote: See we disagree. Barrett takes care of the ball. He has a great arm. But it's more about value for me. Fall in high 1st? Or Barrett in high 4th? And jt doesn't throw picks. And yeah I have Adams in a tier of his own as far as the goes. And while I'm a huge osu fan I don't think I'm letting hat come in on play with Barrett.

Taking any QB is always going to be a risk (especially outside of the first round) because they are considered so critical to the success of the team.
I would only consider Barrett if I thought he could be the next Russell Wilson or Dak Prescott. Those two guys btw were also mid-round picks. Hardly anyone expected them to become good NFL QBs. They ended up working out, but it's extremely rare for a non-first round QB to actually be a good starting QB in the NFL.

I don't put JT Barrett on the same level as those guys when they came out of college. Barrett has never been quite the passer that both Wilson and Prescott were in college. With that said, he's on pace for his best statistical season, so he might be worth consideration for draft. I'd like to see how he does against the better Big 10 opponents first.
EDIT - He was not good against Oklahoma this year nor the last three games last year, so I don't have confidence he can win against the tougher competition consistently enough.

[Hammerstripes]

(09-29-2017, 09:43 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Sam Darnold did the same, but better IMO.
USC before Darnold went 8-6 (6-3 in conf play).
USC with true freshman Darnold went 10-3 including a 9 game winning streak, won the PAC 12 and Rose Bowl.
USC is also still undefeated this year at 4-0.

Meanwhile, UCLA went from a 10-3 team in 2014 to 8-5 in 2015 with freshman Rosen.
Then in 2016, sophomore Rosen led UCLA to 3-5 before being out for the remainder of the season.
And is Rosen really making them competitive again this year? They are 2-2 with Rosen under center.

I'm not saying Rosen is bad, I'm just saying his impact on the overall success of the team may not be as high as you indicate.

Huge difference in talent at USC vs. UCLA - especially at WR.

One thing that really worries me about Darnold - scouts are calling him the 1-read wonder.  He goes to his first read and if it's not open, he doesn't go the next.  That's a huge issue.

[*ochocincos*]

(10-11-2017, 12:07 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: Huge difference in talent at USC vs. UCLA - especially at WR.

One thing that really worries me about Darnold - scouts are calling him the 1-read wonder.  He goes to his first read and if it's not open, he doesn't go the next.  That's a huge issue.

IIRC people were concerned with the same issue with Mariota. He's been a quality QB though since entering the NFL. Because of that, I think the concern on Darnold might be less come draft day.