Interesting Bengals fact during playoff years in ML era

[*ochocincos*]

I just looked it up, and for every year the Bengals have gone to the playoffs since Marvin Lewis arrived, they have had their top RB have over 1100 total yards from scrimmage.

2005: Rudi Johnson 1548 yards (1458 ruYd, 90 recYd)
2009: Cedric Benson 1362 yards (1251 ruYd, 111 recYd)
2011: Cedric Benson 1149 yards (1067 ruYd, 82 recYd)
2012: BenJarvus Green-Ellis 1198 yards (1094 ruYd, 104 recYd)
2013: Giovani Bernard 1209 yards (695 ruYd, 514 recYd)
2014: Jeremy Hill = 1339 yards (1124 ruYd, 215 recYd)
2015: Giovani Bernard = 1202 yards (730 ruYd, 472 recYd)

While there have been seasons when the Bengals have had a RB get more than 1100 total yards and not make the playoffs, they have never had their top statistical RB have less than 1100 yards and still make the playoffs during the Marvin Lewis era.

What this also indicates is that the Bengals had a good enough offensive line in those playoff years to help said RBs achieve those yardage totals. That is a very important factor to note.

The projected total yardage of the Bengals' RBs for 2017 determined by multiplying their current stats by four since we're 1/4 the way through the season:
Bernard = 892 yards
Mixon = 856 yards
Jeremy Hill = 392 yards

What this tells me: If the Bengals hope to make the playoffs this year, they need to do the necessary to get their RBs more productive. If one of the Bengals RBs does surpass 1100 total yards from scrimmage, it will likely be (at least partially) contributed to an improvement in the performance of the OL throughout the year. If no RB does, it will likely be primarily caused from terrible OL performance, and therefore also highly likely that the Bengals fall short of the playoffs.

Thoughts on this statistical trend?

[THE PISTONS]

Makes sense. Having a good running game takes pressure off of the QB to try to make plays which can cause interceptions. It also rests the defense.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(10-05-2017, 01:37 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I just looked it up, and for every year the Bengals have gone to the playoffs since Marvin Lewis arrived, they have had their top RB have over 1100 total yards from scrimmage.

2005: Rudi Johnson 1548 yards (1458 ruYd, 90 recYd)
2009: Cedric Benson 1362 yards (1251 ruYd, 111 recYd)
2011: Cedric Benson 1149 yards (1067 ruYd, 82 recYd)
2012: BenJarvus Green-Ellis 1198 yards (1094 ruYd, 104 recYd)
2013: Giovani Bernard 1209 yards (695 ruYd, 514 recYd)
2014: Jeremy Hill = 1339 yards (1124 ruYd, 215 recYd)
2015: Giovani Bernard = 1202 yards (730 ruYd, 472 recYd)

While there have been seasons when the Bengals have had a RB get more than 1100 total yards and not make the playoffs, they have never had their top statistical RB have less than 1100 yards and still make the playoffs during the Marvin Lewis era.

What this also indicates is that the Bengals had a good enough offensive line in those playoff years to help said RBs achieve those yardage totals. That is a very important factor to note.

The projected total yardage of the Bengals' RBs for 2017 determined by multiplying their current stats by four since we're 1/4 the way through the season:
Bernard = 892 yards
Mixon = 856 yards
Jeremy Hill = 392 yards

What this tells me: If the Bengals hope to make the playoffs this year, they need to do the necessary to get their RBs more productive. If one of the Bengals RBs does surpass 1100 total yards from scrimmage, it will likely be (at least partially) contributed to an improvement in the performance of the OL throughout the year. If no RB does, it will likely be primarily be caused from terrible OL performance, and therefore also highly likely that the Bengals fall short of the playoffs.

Thoughts on this statistical trend?

I agree with the trend, but 2009 was an anomaly.  We had a bad oline then as well, but we ran a shit ton of unbalanced sets (remember Roland being the extra tackle a lot?), to help run the ball.  It did wonders for the run game, but hampered the passing game.

As Pistons noted, it helps your QB and defense.  In the playoff game against NYJ, Benson balled out, but we couldn't get anything going in the passing game.  In 2013, we abandoned BJGE way too early, IMO.  

[THE PISTONS]

It goes back to what Atlanta's GM said. He never valued Centers...then he signed Alex Mack and it opened up things that he didn't even know was possible.

[*Nately120*]

(10-05-2017, 01:40 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: Makes sense. Having a good running game takes pressure off of the QB to try to make plays which can cause interceptions. It also rests the defense.

Winning a lot also leads to many running yards because you are running out the clock and having lots of rushing attempts.  For this reason I feel a lot of people tend to put the cart before the horse and think "lots of running plays = win."

[*PhilHos*]

(10-05-2017, 02:31 PM)Nately120 Wrote: Winning a lot also leads to many running yards because you are running out the clock and having lots of rushing attempts.  For this reason I feel a lot of people tend to put the cart before the horse and think "lots of running plays = win."

It's like when losing teams have really good pass defense.

[*Nately120*]

(10-05-2017, 03:49 PM)PhilHos Wrote: It's like when losing teams have really good pass defense.

I think the saddest thing ever was in late 90s when I, being a Bears and Bengals fan , was reducing to bragging how the Bears had the best punter in the league.  Man, that guy  punted for like as many yards as a real QB would throw.  Niiiiiiice.

[BengalChris]

(10-05-2017, 01:37 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I just looked it up, and for every year the Bengals have gone to the playoffs since Marvin Lewis arrived, they have had their top RB have over 1100 total yards from scrimmage.

2005: Rudi Johnson 1548 yards (1458 ruYd, 90 recYd)
2009: Cedric Benson 1362 yards (1251 ruYd, 111 recYd)
2011: Cedric Benson 1149 yards (1067 ruYd, 82 recYd)
2012: BenJarvus Green-Ellis 1198 yards (1094 ruYd, 104 recYd)
2013: Giovani Bernard 1209 yards (695 ruYd, 514 recYd)
2014: Jeremy Hill = 1339 yards (1124 ruYd, 215 recYd)
2015: Giovani Bernard = 1202 yards (730 ruYd, 472 recYd)

While there have been seasons when the Bengals have had a RB get more than 1100 total yards and not make the playoffs, they have never had their top statistical RB have less than 1100 yards and still make the playoffs during the Marvin Lewis era.

What this also indicates is that the Bengals had a good enough offensive line in those playoff years to help said RBs achieve those yardage totals. That is a very important factor to note.

The projected total yardage of the Bengals' RBs for 2017 determined by multiplying their current stats by four since we're 1/4 the way through the season:
Bernard = 892 yards
Mixon = 856 yards
Jeremy Hill = 392 yards

What this tells me: If the Bengals hope to make the playoffs this year, they need to do the necessary to get their RBs more productive. If one of the Bengals RBs does surpass 1100 total yards from scrimmage, it will likely be (at least partially) contributed to an improvement in the performance of the OL throughout the year. If no RB does, it will likely be primarily caused from terrible OL performance, and therefore also highly likely that the Bengals fall short of the playoffs.

Thoughts on this statistical trend?

Excellent breakdown. My thoughts are that with this OL we'll be hard pressed for the RBs to keep pace with what they have done so far. Gio's screen pass he took to the house is not something he's going to do every game. I believe Mixon will finish the year as the highest producing back.

[XenoMorph]

(10-05-2017, 01:37 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I just looked it up, and for every year the Bengals have gone to the playoffs since Marvin Lewis arrived, they have had their top RB have over 1100 total yards from scrimmage.

2005: Rudi Johnson 1548 yards (1458 ruYd, 90 recYd)
2009: Cedric Benson 1362 yards (1251 ruYd, 111 recYd)
2011: Cedric Benson 1149 yards (1067 ruYd, 82 recYd)
2012: BenJarvus Green-Ellis 1198 yards (1094 ruYd, 104 recYd)
2013: Giovani Bernard 1209 yards (695 ruYd, 514 recYd)
2014: Jeremy Hill = 1339 yards (1124 ruYd, 215 recYd)
2015: Giovani Bernard = 1202 yards (730 ruYd, 472 recYd)

While there have been seasons when the Bengals have had a RB get more than 1100 total yards and not make the playoffs, they have never had their top statistical RB have less than 1100 yards and still make the playoffs during the Marvin Lewis era.

What this also indicates is that the Bengals had a good enough offensive line in those playoff years to help said RBs achieve those yardage totals. That is a very important factor to note.

The projected total yardage of the Bengals' RBs for 2017 determined by multiplying their current stats by four since we're 1/4 the way through the season:
Bernard = 892 yards
Mixon = 856 yards
Jeremy Hill = 392 yards

What this tells me: If the Bengals hope to make the playoffs this year, they need to do the necessary to get their RBs more productive. If one of the Bengals RBs does surpass 1100 total yards from scrimmage, it will likely be (at least partially) contributed to an improvement in the performance of the OL throughout the year. If no RB does, it will likely be primarily caused from terrible OL performance, and therefore also highly likely that the Bengals fall short of the playoffs.

Thoughts on this statistical trend?

Isnt there something like when the bengals run hill 30 times a game they have only lost twice...

[XenoMorph]

(10-05-2017, 03:54 PM)Nately120 Wrote: I think the saddest thing ever was in late 90s when I, being a Bears and Bengals fan , was reducing to bragging how the Bears had the best punter in the league.  Man, that guy  punted for like as many yards as a real QB would throw.  Niiiiiiice.

Hey Huber had a great week 1 lol

[*ochocincos*]

(10-05-2017, 02:31 PM)Nately120 Wrote: Winning a lot also leads to many running yards because you are running out the clock and having lots of rushing attempts.  For this reason I feel a lot of people tend to put the cart before the horse and think "lots of running plays = win."

Very good point. Hopefully what I wrote wasn't misinterpreted as "lots of running plays = win" though because that's not what I was meaning to imply.

Whatever it takes to get the RBs to be more productive, it needs to be done. If it is more running plays to get there, great. If it's more screens and short passes to RBs, great. If it's better blocking, great. If it's gaining a lead through a lot of passes only to run a lot late in games to hold a lead and build up yardage that way, so be it.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(10-05-2017, 04:31 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: Isnt there something like when the bengals run hill 30 times a game they have only lost twice...

Hill has never rushed 30 times in in a game in his career. So no.

Also, as Nately said, a lot of those "when RB rushes this many times" stats are because if you're getting your ass kicked early, the RB won't touch the ball much because you have to throw to catch up. If you're already winning big, the Bengals love to shut down into a run-run-pass-punt or run-run-run-punt offense, so the RB will get a ton of touches.

Just look at the Bengals versus the Browns. Their RBs didn't run the ball 26 times because they were having success. Heck, they only averaged 2.2 YPC on those 26 carries. They ran it 26 times because they were up 21-0 at half and decided to pretty much shut down their offense and run out the clock the rest of the game.

[masterpanthera_t]

I suppose this could be a nitpick, but, that trend held up against the three backs' projected totals doesn't necessarily make me believe that the only way the Bengals get to the playoffs is if they get a back to 1100 total yards somehow. Why? I need to know what the total rushing yardage was as a team in those years posted to see if even if one doesn't get to 1100, what if the three RB committee got over whatever the total rushing marks were (or were in the range) for those years?

Having said that, I don't think the Bengals are making the playoffs unless the running game gets better because I don't expect Andy to drag a one dimensional offense by himself to the playoffs.

[Shake n Blake]

I'm with Nately. We weren't particularly efficient running the ball in most of those years. We just ran a ton once we had the lead.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(10-05-2017, 04:31 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: Isnt there something like when the bengals run hill 30 times a game they have only lost twice...

(10-05-2017, 06:30 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Hill has never rushed 30 times in in a game in his career. So no.

Also, as Nately said, a lot of those "when RB rushes this many times" stats are because if you're getting your ass kicked early, the RB won't touch the ball much because you have to throw to catch up. If you're already winning big, the Bengals love to shut down into a run-run-pass-punt or run-run-run-punt offense, so the RB will get a ton of touches.

Just look at the Bengals versus the Browns. Their RBs didn't run the ball 26 times because they were having success. Heck, they only averaged 2.2 YPC on those 26 carries. They ran it 26 times because they were up 21-0 at half and decided to pretty much shut down their offense and run out the clock the rest of the game.

There was a stat somewhere, buried in the archives, that stated something along the lines of when the Bengals rush 30 times a game, the win % was way up there.

[*ochocincos*]

(10-05-2017, 07:17 PM)masterpanthera_t Wrote: I suppose this could be a nitpick, but, that trend held up against the three backs' projected totals doesn't necessarily make me believe that the only way the Bengals get to the playoffs is if they get a back to 1100 total yards somehow. Why? I need to know what the total rushing yardage was as a team in those years posted to see if even if one doesn't get to 1100, what if the three RB committee got over whatever the total rushing marks were (or were in the range) for those years?

Having said that, I don't think the Bengals are making the playoffs unless the running game gets better because I don't expect Andy to drag a one dimensional offense by himself to the playoffs.

While the Bengals could get to the playoffs by just reaching a certain combined total from all RBs and not having one individual RB with 1100+ total yards from scrimmage, it's just never happened before in the ML era (15 years). Therefore, I think the likelihood of that is very low.

[masterpanthera_t]

(10-06-2017, 12:13 PM)ochocincos Wrote: While the Bengals could get to the playoffs by just reaching a certain combined total from all RBs and not having one individual RB with 1100+ total yards from scrimmage, it's just never happened before in the ML era (15 years). Therefore, I think the likelihood of that is very low.

I would say if it was ever going to happen under Marvin Lewis, this is the most likely year. I don't think we've had a back so versatile on third downs (at least I hope that the stats bear it out and it's not just homer hype) as Bernard. I could see a scenario where he gets a lot of yards off of receptions alone. And if Mixon starts coming along as a rusher, there could be enough yards among the three (although Hill's best usage is probably only to spell Mixon anymore) to get the team in the playoffs without any one reaching 1100. 

Either way, I agree that the running game has to get better to even get into playoff contention, let alone make the playoffs.

[TheUberHuber]

(10-05-2017, 04:32 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: Hey Huber had a great week 1 lol

:giggle:

[Derrick]

(10-05-2017, 01:48 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: It goes back to what Atlanta's GM said. He never valued Centers...then he signed Alex Mack and it opened up things that he didn't even know was possible.

PUT THIS ON THE BIG SCOREBOARD THIS SUNDAY.