Dalton vs. Bortles article

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

QB Rating needs an OPS+ treatment, where the league average QB Rating that year is put at 100 points, and then how every many points above or below 100 a QB is, is how many % he was above or below average that year.

It would really solve a lot of problems of varying levels of offensive output for each year.

For instance, in 2017 there were 5 QBs with a QB Rating of at least 100, and 15 QBs of at least 90 QB Rating.
Meanwhile in 2005 there were 2 QBs with a QB Rating of at least 100, and 8 QBs of at least 90 QB Rating.

So if you think about it, Palmer's 101.1 QB Rating in 2005 is way more impressive than Wentz's 101.9 QB Rating in 2017.

If we had an OPS+ styled system, then we could look and see "Oh, in 2005 Palmer was 43% above average and in 2017 Wentz was 28% above average" or something like that.


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Granted, this is all based around a discussion on QB Rating, which isn't a particularly great stat (but not a particularly bad one either). Either way, it would give a much better point of dicussion for talking about QBs in different years, because even one or two years can provide a pretty big difference in what an average QB's numbers should be.

[Truck_1_0_1_]

(01-16-2018, 01:10 PM)WychesWarrior Wrote: I *think* it was WhoDeyWho.....or something along those lines.  He was one of the original admins here with Bengalholic.  He owned the original domain name, IIRC, got mad, took his ball and went home.  Holic had to start over from scratch.

Yeah, when mullsy showed up, objectivity and rational thought went out the window....but he was fun to toy with when you were bored.  

Oh yes!

The Mad Black Man (not being racist, just doing a spin on the, "Mad Black Woman," thing by Tyler Perry).

[Shake n Blake]

(01-16-2018, 01:22 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: QB Rating needs an OPS+ treatment, where the league average QB Rating that year is put at 100 points, and then how every many points above or below 100 a QB is, is how many % he was above or below average that year.

It would really solve a lot of problems of varying levels of offensive output for each year.

For instance, in 2017 there were 5 QBs with a QB Rating of at least 100, and 15 QBs of at least 90 QB Rating.
Meanwhile in 2005 there were 2 QBs with a QB Rating of at least 100, and 8 QBs of at least 90 QB Rating.

So if you think about it, Palmer's 101.1 QB Rating in 2005 is way more impressive than Wentz's 101.9 QB Rating in 2017.

If we had an OPS+ styled system, then we could look and see "Oh, in 2005 Palmer was 43% above average and in 2017 Wentz was 28% above average" or something like that.


- - - - - - - - - -

Granted, this is all based around a discussion on QB Rating, which isn't a particularly great stat (but not a particularly bad one either). Either way, it would give a much better point of dicussion for talking about QBs in different years, because even one or two years can provide a pretty big difference in what an average QB's numbers should be.

Agreed. People take Dalton's rankings and just assume he ranked (say) 15th out of "32"...but that's not really accurate. There are always more than 32 qualifying QB's. I think a better way to judge Dalton's seasons would be to compare his passer rating to the overall league total for each season and give him a +/- grade based on that.

Here's how that would look, with Dalton's ratings in parenthesis:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2017/


2017: League- 85.1 (86.6) +1.5
2016: League- 87.6 (91.8) +4.2
2015: League- 88.4 (106.2) +17.8
2014: League- 87.1 (83.5) -3.6
2013: League- 84.1 (88.8) +4.7
2012: League- 83.8 (87.4) +3.6
2011: League- 82.5 (80.4) -2.1

[fredtoast]

(01-16-2018, 01:22 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: QB Rating needs an OPS+ treatment, where the league average QB Rating that year is put at 100 points, and then how every many points above or below 100 a QB is, is how many % he was above or below average that year.

It would really solve a lot of problems of varying levels of offensive output for each year.

For instance, in 2017 there were 5 QBs with a QB Rating of at least 100, and 15 QBs of at least 90 QB Rating.
Meanwhile in 2005 there were 2 QBs with a QB Rating of at least 100, and 8 QBs of at least 90 QB Rating.

So if you think about it, Palmer's 101.1 QB Rating in 2005 is way more impressive than Wentz's 101.9 QB Rating in 2017.

If we had an OPS+ styled system, then we could look and see "Oh, in 2005 Palmer was 43% above average and in 2017 Wentz was 28% above average" or something like that.


- - - - - - - - - -

Granted, this is all based around a discussion on QB Rating, which isn't a particularly great stat (but not a particularly bad one either). Either way, it would give a much better point of dicussion for talking about QBs in different years, because even one or two years can provide a pretty big difference in what an average QB's numbers should be.

Sorry for thr OT post but....


From '05 through '15 league passer rating increased 9 out of ten years.  Over that time it went up over 10% from 78.2 to 88.4.  Over the same time passing yardage increased almost 20% from 203.5 ypg to 243.8.

However in each of the last two seasons both passer rating and passing yards have dropped.  In '17 the league passer rating was 85.1 and yards per game was 224.4.

Two years is a little quick to judge a trend, but after the consistent rise for a complete decade it now seems that the pendulum might be swinging back toward the defense.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-16-2018, 03:05 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Sorry for thr OT post but....


From '05 through '15 league passer rating increased 9 out of ten years.  Over that time it went up over 10% from 78.2 to 88.4.  Over the same time passing yardage increased almost 20% from 203.5 ypg to 243.8.

However in each of the last two seasons both passer rating and passing yards have dropped.  In '17 the league passer rating was 85.1 and yards per game was 224.4.

Two years is a little quick to judge a trend, but after the consistent rise for a complete decade it now seems that the pendulum might be swinging back toward the defense.

I am not so sure it's due to swinging back towards the defense, so much as there is a LOT of bad OL play these days in the NFL.

But either way, how nice would it be to have a nice simple singular number to just look at and immediately know how much better or worse than average a QB was that year?

I'm way too lazy to go about doing that, but it'd sure be cool if someone else did. Lol

[Shake n Blake]

(01-16-2018, 03:10 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I am not so sure it's due to swinging back towards the defense, so much as there is a LOT of bad OL play these days in the NFL.

But either way, how nice would it be to have a nice simple singular number to just look at and immediately know how much better or worse than average a QB was that year?

I'm way too lazy to go about doing that, but it'd sure be cool if someone else did. Lol

Lol I literally just did that and you repped me for it. 

I realize it's a bit simpler than some advanced stats, but comparing his rating to the total NFL rating is a good gauge, IMO.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-16-2018, 04:31 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Lol I literally just did that and you repped me for it. 

I realize it's a bit simpler than some advanced stats, but comparing his rating to the total NFL rating is a good gauge, IMO.

You didn't make a complete list of all QBs in the NFL for all years that QB Rating has been a stat. I wasn't talking just Dalton, I was talking for EVERYONE, so it could be used in common conversation. Hence the OPS+ comment. I want to be able to just pull up their stat pages and instantly see how much better than average Dan Marino was in 1984 versus Tom Brady this year, versus Keith Molesworth on the 1932 Chicago Bears.

I honestly have always been pretty unimpressed with NFL statkeeping (comparative to baseball) and lack of advanced statistics. It doesn't help that they didn't even keep a lot of stats until recently (Tackle stat isn't even 2 decades old yet). I can't even see how many tackles Ray Lewis made in his earlier years... meanwhile I can find the Lefty/Righty batting split for Babe Ruth in 1915. I just personally am feeling way too lazy to start some revolution in NFL statkeeping. I just thought it would be nice. Lol

[Shake n Blake]

(01-16-2018, 05:12 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: You didn't make a complete list of all QBs in the NFL for all years that QB Rating has been a stat. I wasn't talking just Dalton, I was talking for EVERYONE, so it could be used in common conversation. Hence the OPS+ comment. I want to be able to just pull up their stat pages and instantly see how much better than average Dan Marino was in 1984 versus Tom Brady this year, versus Keith Molesworth on the 1932 Chicago Bears.

I honestly have always been pretty unimpressed with NFL statkeeping (comparative to baseball) and lack of advanced statistics. It doesn't help that they didn't even keep a lot of stats until recently (Tackle stat isn't even 2 decades old yet). I can't even see how many tackles Ray Lewis made in his earlier years... meanwhile I can find the Lefty/Righty batting split for Babe Ruth in 1915.  I just personally am feeling way too lazy to start some revolution in NFL statkeeping. I just thought it would be nice. Lol

Well I could eventually put together a list that ranks all current starters by their average +/- in passer rating over the course of their careers. I think that would be fun, but of course Andy fans would accept it while Andy bashers would say it's flawed somehow. I still think that would be very interesting to see though.

I agree 100% that football has lagged behind baseball and even basketball (which has PER, box score +/- and many other great stats) as far as advanced stats. It kinda sucks.