Andy Dalton street value

[fredtoast]

(03-17-2018, 06:35 PM)bfine32 Wrote:  

But how about we just agree Andy is an average NFL QB. Nothing more, nothing less. 

With 32 NFL teams and taking injuries into account there are probably 100 QB on an NFL rosters in an average season.

Right now Dalton is top 10 to 15 in the league.

So how do you figure he is "just average".

When you look at entire careers and take into account everything like passing, rushing tds, fewest fumbles, fourth quarter comebacks, and total victories there is a very solid argument that Dalton is a top 10 starter.

[BengalsRocker]

(03-18-2018, 10:47 AM)fredtoast Wrote: With 32 NFL teams and taking injuries into account there are probably 100 QB on an NFL rosters in an average season.

Right now Dalton is top 10 to 15 in the league.

So how do you figure he is "just average".

When you look at entire careers and take into account everything like passing, rushing tds, fewest fumbles, fourth quarter comebacks, and total victories there is a very solid argument that Dalton is a top 10 starter.

Delusional people who are jaded undervalue Dalton.

It never occurs that other factors weigh into his shortcomings.

The same people who hate the HC, GM, and the backwards thinking of the Bengals, would still place all blame on the QB in a heartbeat.

What...

You don't think a team elsewhere doesn't see him as shackled by a crappy franchise...  or is that only reserved for the rest of the team?

On these very boards days ago someone posted how "McCarron would go to the Browns, and give us a beat down."

I suppose Dalton wouldn't have the ability to do the same?

I just don't get our fan base at times. 

[*bfine32*]

(03-18-2018, 10:40 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Only if you agree that your "best" QB has never beaten a team that won more than 5 games in a season.

Or if you refuse to do an accurate comparison of how each QB played with the exact same offense around him.

2015 Dalton.........106.2
2015 McCarron.... 89.7

And, finally, if you lower the minimum to 130 then you will be arguing that Deshaun Watson is a better QB than Tom Brady.  You willing to take your mental gymnastics performance to that level?

You are the one that started changing the numbers, not me. I simply continued. So you might want to rethink who participated in mental gymnastics.

[*bfine32*]

(03-18-2018, 10:47 AM)fredtoast Wrote: With 32 NFL teams and taking injuries into account there are probably 100 QB on an NFL rosters in an average season.

Right now Dalton is top 10 to 15 in the league.

So how do you figure he is "just average".

When you look at entire careers and take into account everything like passing, rushing tds, fewest fumbles, fourth quarter comebacks, and total victories there is a very solid argument that Dalton is a top 10 starter.

Andy Dalton finished 18th out of 32 QBs this past year; not sure how that equals top 10-15 in the league unless we engage in mental gymnastics. 

[fredtoast]

(03-18-2018, 11:49 AM)bfine32 Wrote: Andy Dalton finished 18th out of 32 QBs this past year; not sure how that equals top 10-15 in the league unless we engage in mental gymnastics. 

You are starting to go in circles.  We just got through discussing why you can't judge a QB by just one year.  You have to look at the full body of work.

Of course if a QB is older, injured, or losing his physical abilities you have to look more at his recent performances, but that is not the situation with Dalton.

[*bfine32*]

(03-18-2018, 11:54 AM)fredtoast Wrote: You are starting to go in circles.  We just got through discussing why you can't judge a QB by just one year.  You have to look at the full body of work.

Of course if a QB is older, injured, or losing his physical abilities you have to look more at his recent performances, but that is not the situation with Dalton.

Hell, folks sure do like bringing up one year (2015) quite a bit. But you roll with top 10-15 in league if you want; just don't be surprised if the vast majority of folks that do such ratings for a living disagree with you.  Before last season started I put and at 17th. Of course I'm a homer and over-estimated him.

Andy Dalton is an average NFL QB. We could do better, we could do worse and I have no problem with him being the Bengals signal caller for the near future, but let's not confuse him for a top 10 QB in the NFL.   

[pdub2005]

(01-18-2018, 01:39 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: A “bad QB” has his team in the AFC Championship this weekend. And in the NFC it’s the battle of the backups. I don’t see the kind of overpayments some think coming back for Dalton, who let’s face it, is just average.

This is such an invalid argument, its ridiculous. The vikings have a terrific defense, and the Jags might have the best pass defense I have ever seen. Way to exclude crucial info for that argument. Case Keenum is also having a terrific year, and Nick Foles already had a season where he received MVP consideration. Dude only threw 2 INTS one year!! Cases value would be low, because he had exactly that, a great year... ***A***, as in single great year.

Dalton is worthy of a high first to a lot of teams. He may not be flashy, but he has been to the playoffs A LOT, which you can't say about a lot of these other QBs. Look at Smith, how long did it take for him to reach his first playoffs? And he had Frank Gore in his prime, who IMO, is one the most criminally underrated players in NFL history. Dalton took his team to the playoffs his first 5 seasons. And most of those years he had a mediocre running game. Sure AJ was arguably the driving force of his success, but teams still see his success. Which when you look at QBs like Keenum and Foles and compare track records to Daltons, you realize there isnt a comparison. Sure they both when deep this year, but what about the other years they piled up behind center. Dalton has been consistently adequate to above average, and sometimes fantastic. I can't think of a single statistical year he has had that I would classify as a "Bad year." He's had a few okay years, but not anything I would call a total statistical failure. The same can't be said for; Smith, Foles, Keenum, or Bradform.

[fredtoast]

(03-18-2018, 12:18 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Hell, folks sure do like bringing up one year (2015) quite a bit.

They sure do.




In order to say it shouldn't count because it was a fluke.

[fredtoast]

(03-18-2018, 12:18 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Andy Dalton is an average NFL QB. 

"Average" is such a vague term.

[*PhilHos*]

(03-18-2018, 12:18 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Andy Dalton is an average NFL QB. We could do better, we could do worse and I have no problem with him being the Bengals signal caller for the near future, but let's not confuse him for a top 10 QB in the NFL.   

Andy Dalton is currently NOT a top 10 QB, but he IS an above average QB. I question how someone can look at his stats in totality and say he's an average QB (or worse). 

[*bfine32*]

(03-19-2018, 04:49 PM)PhilHos Wrote: Andy Dalton is currently NOT a top 10 QB, but he IS an above average QB. I question how someone can look at his stats in totality and say he's an average QB (or worse). 

Andy's career rating would have placed him 17th on the passer rating this year; to me that reads average in ability. Now when we start talking durability, consistency, and character you can bump him up a couple notches. Unfortunately most folks rate a QB by what they can give you on the field and for Andy that's an average performance. He's just been able to be average more than many.

[Brownshoe]

(03-20-2018, 01:21 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Andy's career rating would have placed him 17th on the passer rating this year; to me that reads average in ability. Now when we start talking durability, consistency, and character you can bump him up a couple notches. Unfortunately most folks rate a QB by what they can give you on the field and for Andy that's an average performance. He's just been able to be average more than many.

Your boy Alex Smith's career rating would land him 17th in rating this year too (which Daltons is higher). What's your point?

[*PhilHos*]

(03-20-2018, 01:21 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Andy's career rating would have placed him 17th on the passer rating this year; to me that reads average in ability. Now when we start talking durability, consistency, and character you can bump him up a couple notches. Unfortunately most folks rate a QB by what they can give you on the field and for Andy that's an average performance. He's just been able to be average more than many.

Placed him 17th on which list? Are you taking Dalton's career QB rating and seeing where it would rank amongst 1 year's worth of QBs? And you want me to take your analysis seriously?

BTW, Dalton's career QB rating is 17th on the ALL time list (9th among active QBs).
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_rating_career.htm

EDIT: Also, I made a post once where I listed the number of games Dalton had with a QB rating of over 90 and under 60 and the others inbetween. Dalton has had more games of over 90 than he has under 60 and it's not even close. That, to me, is an ABOVE average QB.

[Shake n Blake]

(03-20-2018, 01:21 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Andy's career rating would have placed him 17th on the passer rating this year; to me that reads average in ability. Now when we start talking durability, consistency, and character you can bump him up a couple notches. Unfortunately most folks rate a QB by what they can give you on the field and for Andy that's an average performance. He's just been able to be average more than many.

Why would you compare Dalton's career rating against 1 year? Why not compare Dalton's career rating against other career ratings? Is it because Dalton is top 10 among active players in career rating? Is that why you're using such an unorthodox method for comparison?

[*bfine32*]

(03-20-2018, 02:11 PM)PhilHos Wrote: Placed him 17th on which list? Are you taking Dalton's career QB rating and seeing where it would rank amongst 1 year's worth of QBs? And you want me to take your analysis seriously?

BTW, Dalton's career QB rating is 17th on the ALL time list (9th among active QBs).
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_rating_career.htm

EDIT: Also, I made a post once where I listed the number of games Dalton had with a QB rating of over 90 and under 60 and the others inbetween. Dalton has had more games of over 90 than he has under 60 and it's not even close. That, to me, is an ABOVE average QB.

You asked how anyone could consider him an average QB and I used his career average compared to this year's qualified QBs. I really do not care what analysis you chose to take seriously. You dismiss a comparison to one year stats but then brag about how you once calculated by game stats.

Andy Dalton has been Top 10 in passer rating once in his career, higher than 15th twice in his career, and in the 20s twice in his career. He is coming off of a year where he was ranked 18th. You look up average in the dictionary and there's a picture of Andy Dalton.

As to the trusty "Top 10 in career passer rating" it has been addressed. This is something folks use to try and make Andy seem better than what he really is. Try a quick exercise to illustrate my point: Add 5 points to Andy's career rating and see how far up that pushes him, then subtract 5 points and see how far that takes him down. Then you may understand how much closer to the bottom he is than the top.   

As I continue to say: You and others can think Andy Dalton is or has been anything other than an average QB in the NFL if you want, just don't expect many rational analysts to agree with you.

[*bfine32*]

(03-20-2018, 04:04 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Why would you compare Dalton's career rating against 1 year? Why not compare Dalton's career rating against other career ratings? Is it because Dalton is top 10 among active players in career rating? Is that why you're using such an unorthodox method for comparison?

See above for your answer.

[*bfine32*]

(03-20-2018, 01:58 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: Your boy Alex Smith's career rating would land him 17th in rating this year too (which Daltons is higher). What's your point?

My point is what I stated: Andy has been average longer than most. Alex Smith was terrible earlier in his career and has been great later in his career. Alex also performs well in the playoff.

Was your point to say you think Andy Dalton is as good of an NFL QB as Alex Smith?

[Brownshoe]

(03-20-2018, 06:11 PM)bfine32 Wrote: My point is what I stated: Andy has been average longer than most. Alex Smith was terrible earlier in his career and has been great later in his career. Alex also performs well in the playoff.

Was your point to say you think Andy Dalton is as good of an NFL QB as Alex Smith?

Oh, you already know that I know Dalton is better than Smith. Smith has only had 1 season over 4k yards OR 25 TDs. He's only had 2 seasons with 3,500 or more yards and only 2 seasons with over 20 TDs. You just like taking a couple of playoff games and acting like that's what makes a QB better.

[*bfine32*]

(03-20-2018, 07:55 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: Oh, you already know that I know Dalton is better than Smith. 

I'm just gonna let that one speak for itself. 

[Shake n Blake]

(03-20-2018, 06:09 PM)bfine32 Wrote: You asked how anyone could consider him an average QB and I used his career average compared to this year's qualified QBs. I really do not care what analysis you chose to take seriously. You dismiss a comparison to one year stats but then brag about how you once calculated by game stats.

Andy Dalton has been Top 10 in passer rating once in his career, higher than 15th twice in his career, and in the 20s twice in his career. He is coming off of a year where he was ranked 18th. You look up average in the dictionary and there's a picture of Andy Dalton.

As to the trusty "Top 10 in career passer rating" it has been addressed. This is something folks use to try and make Andy seem better than what he really is. Try a quick exercise to illustrate my point: Add 5 points to Andy's career rating and see how far up that pushes him, then subtract 5 points and see how far that takes him down. Then you may understand how much closer to the bottom he is than the top.   

As I continue to say: You and others can think Andy Dalton is or has been anything other than an average QB in the NFL if you want, just don't expect many rational analysts to agree with you.

This makes no sense. You seem to place high importance on where Dalton has ranked from year to year, placing him as an "average" starter due to those rankings. 

Have you ever wondered how Dalton could rank 20th, 13th, 15th, 13th, 25th etc in year to year rankings, yet be ranked 10th in career rankings?

The biggest reason for this is that Dalton has been consistent. His worst years haven't been as bad as those of guys like Cam, Flacco, Eli, Mariota, etc. Even when he was ranked 25th, his rating was 83.3 IIRC, which isn't all that bad in the grand scheme of things. Cam Newton's worst rating is a 75.8 I believe. He has a couple years like that under his belt. 

A lot of QBs flash, then fall off. Good QBs have terrible years. Dalton has been consistently "good enough" or whatever term or phrase you want to use. In the end, consistency is part of what makes Dalton good, or "above average". The career ranking reflects that.