Can The Bengals Beat The Patriots?

[djs7685]

(10-07-2015, 02:50 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Do the Pats have different coaching staff than they had when we played them in 2013?  Because we shut them down the entire game and outscored them 10-3 in the second half.  

We also outscored the Packers 20-14 in the second half.

And we outscored the Chargers 10-3 in the second half.

In our two games against the Ravens we outscored them 17-3 and 17-11 in the second halves.

Since you never replied in the other thread, I'll post it here too...

How do the Bengals fare in the second half of primetime and playoff games?


That's what most people are referring to when they mention the second half issues, but I'm not 100% certain about this exact poster. There is an undeniable problem in the second half of football games when we play in the bright lights. I won't claim to know how or why exactly it happens, but you can't say the issue doesn't exist. It's been far too often to be considered just a coincidence.

This thread is about a game against the Patriots, right? The only way we'll see the Patriots is in the playoffs, right?

[fredtoast]

(10-07-2015, 02:56 PM)djs7685 Wrote: Since you never replied in the other thread, I'll post it here too...

How do the Bengals fare in the second half of primetime and playoff games?


That's what most people are referring to when they mention the second half issues, but I'm not 100% certain about this exact poster. There is an undeniable problem in the second half of football games when we play in the bright lights. I won't claim to know how or why exactly it happens, but you can't say the issue doesn't exist. It's been far too often to be considered just a coincidence.

This thread is about a game against the Patriots, right? The only way we'll see the Patriots is in the playoffs, right?

There are many reasons that the bengals have failed in the second half of the playoffs.  And some of it is clearly coaching.  But I am guessing that all the head coaches who lost to the Bengals in the regular season were trying to win those games also.  If the Patriots and other teams are so much better at adjusting during the game then why do they chose to not do it and lose in the regular season?

If our past failures 100% predicted what would happen in the future then we would never have beaten Denver in prime time last year.  And the Seahawks would not have won the Super Bowl in '13 because they had never done it before.  Same for the Saints in '07.

[djs7685]

(10-07-2015, 03:10 PM)fredtoast Wrote: There are many reasons that the bengals have failed in the second half of the playoffs.  And some of it is clearly coaching.  But I am guessing that all the head coaches who lost to the Bengals in the regular season were trying to win those games also.  If the Patriots and other teams are so much better at adjusting during the game then why do they chose to not do it and lose in the regular season?

If our past failures 100% predicted what would happen in the future then we would never have beaten Denver in prime time last year.  And the Seahawks would not have won the Super Bowl in '13 because they had never done it before.  Same for the Saints in '07.

I don't think anybody is saying that the past will tell you 100% of what will happen in the future, but it tells part of the story, doesn't it?

LeBron James is probably going to score a lot of points this year. Why would people think that? The past has told us that he's a pretty good basketball player. It's the same reason why certain players and coaches are considered "good". You HAVE to look at the past if you want to talk sports. Aaron Rodgers is good at throwing the football, and we know that because we've watched him for years in the past.

Marvin Lewis led teams have had their issues in the second halves of games since he's been the Bengals HC. Should we just assume that it has been magically fixed before seeing it? There is damn good reason that people are skeptical when it comes to ML/the Bengals and the second half of playoff games.

Your little quote about the Patriots making adjustments sometimes and "choosing not to do it and lose in the regular season" is one of those logical fallacies you were talking about before. Bill Belichick seems to be better than most at said adjustments, but no coach is 100% perfect. I don't think either of us can sit here and explain exactly why Marvin Lewis led teams fall flat in the 2nd half of playoff games while Bill Belichick led teams seem to succeed when the lights are bright more often than not. What we CAN do is acknowledge that both of those things are very true and hope they both change if we meet the Patriots. It's silly when you and others write off certain trends and act like nobody should be concerned with these things.

[fredtoast]

(10-07-2015, 03:18 PM)djs7685 Wrote: Marvin Lewis led teams have had their issues in the second halves of games since he's been the Bengals HC. 

You forgot to add "only in the playoffs".

[djs7685]

(10-07-2015, 03:23 PM)fredtoast Wrote: You forgot to add "only in the playoffs".

Yes, the playoffs are where it's very noticeable for whatever reason. Thank you for realizing what I meant. I don't know how it's possible for a team to look good in the regular season and then make tons of mistakes in the playoffs, but we've seen it happen a few different times. It's strange.

Didn't somebody compile the data and show that ML led teams in primetime struggled in the second half as well? I know we've seen some reasonable primetime performances over the years, but I'm pretty sure that more often than not we had our issues there as well.

[fredtoast]

Since 2011 Marvin has only lost 5 games when leading at halftime, but has come back to win 9 games that he trailed at halftime.

Overall Marvin is 74-23-2 when winning at halftime. (.758 win %)

11-2 when tied at halftime (.846)

19-65 when losing at halftime (.226)

So it is actually pretty rare that Marvin loses when winning or tied at halftime (25 out of 112 games).  But it is also rare that he comes from behind to win in the second half.  

These are all regular season numbers.

[djs7685]

(10-07-2015, 03:45 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Marvin is 70-21-2 when leading at halftime.

What does that % look like compared to other coaches? I know it's a lot of work if you compiled them yourself, I didn't know if you happened to have a resource that can put them together easily though.

It seems like most coaches should have a decent win % when leading at the half, but I'm sure that not all of them are that good. Those numbers for Marvin seem impressive though without knowing if that's standard around the league or not.

[Johnny Cupcakes]

(10-07-2015, 03:45 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Marvin is 70-21-2 when leading at halftime.

What is his record when trailing at halftime?

[wolfkaosaun]

(10-07-2015, 03:54 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Marvin has also won 17 games when trailing at halftime and 13 when he was tied at halftime.

17 to what though? Because 17-3 is much better than 17-30.

[Johnny Cupcakes]

(10-07-2015, 03:56 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Sorry, but there is a glitch in these numbers somewhere.

Marvin has won 104 games and I am only accounting for 100.


Give me some time to re-check my numbers.

You're not including this year, possibly?