QB Index by Gregg Rosenthal

[djs7685]

(10-17-2015, 12:11 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: From 2008 to 2012, Schaub had 5 consecutive years with a 90+ rating. Finishing 7th, 7th, 9th, 6th and 9th. Throwing for an average of 3,734 yards a year (twice over 4,000) and averaging 21/11 td/int per year.

Why wouldn't he deserve to be where he is? 

My point is, being in the top 10 in passer rating of all active QBs with an attempt qualifier doesn't automatically mean you're a top 10 QB right now.

It probably means you were/are pretty good, but it doesn't automatically put you in the top 10 rankings when you include everything else about these players. If Andy keeps up even close to his current pace, I believe he'll be considered a top 10 guy, I just can't call him that quite yet unless we're talking about this season only.

He's easily top 5 if we're talking this year, but he's not quiiiiite top 10 if we're talking careers.....yet.

[*rfaulk34*]

(10-17-2015, 12:18 AM)djs7685 Wrote: My point is, being in the top 10 in passer rating of all active QBs with an attempt qualifier doesn't automatically mean you're a top 10 QB right now.

It probably means you were/are pretty good, but it doesn't automatically put you in the top 10 rankings when you include everything else about these players. If Andy keeps up even close to his current pace, I believe he'll be considered a top 10 guy, I just can't call him that quite yet unless we're talking about this season only.

He's easily top 5 if we're talking this year, but he's not quiiiiite top 10 if we're talking careers.....yet.

Agreed.

[*rfaulk34*]

Just for the sake of argument, and since i'm just lounging around with nothing better to do...

450 attempts a year should be the minimum for a QB to attempt per year in order to "qualify" for a career placement. That's about 28 passes a game and if you look back, it's generally the number of attempts for the 16th QB position on attempts per year since about 2002.

A QB should also have to have done this at least 5 years before you could call it a career.

(keeping in mind, this is my opinion but i think it's a pretty solid opinion)

That means a QB should not qualify for a career placement unless he has at least 2,250 attempts.

With that said, Dalton falls in 15th place, all time, since 1966 with at least 2,250 attempts. Regardless of how you spin it, that's pretty damn good.

Here's the chart for the top 30.



Obviously, the pass happy NFL of today is going to produce more current QBs at the top of the list. This isn't about "best of all time" because Dalton would fall nowhere near 15th on that list. It's more a list of where "current" (last 10 years or so) QBs stand against each other.

[*rfaulk34*]

Here's some more shits and giggles.

Since 2011, QBs with 2,250 attempts:

Brees
Brady
Rivers
Ryan
Dalton
E. Manning
Stafford
Flacco

8 quarterbacks.

Here's how Dalton ranks in that group with those qualifiers.

Att- 8th
Comp- 8th
Comp%- 5th
Yards- 8th
tds- 7th
ints- 5th (least)
qb rating- 5th

[*PhilHos*]

(10-17-2015, 01:05 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Here's some more shits and giggles.

Since 2011, QBs with 2,250 attempts:

Brees
Brady
Rivers
Ryan
Dalton
E. Manning
Stafford
Flacco

8 quarterbacks.

Here's how Dalton ranks in that group with those qualifiers.

Att- 8th
Comp- 8th
Comp%- 5th
Yards- 8th
tds- 7th
ints- 5th (least)
qb rating- 5th

Isn't Dalton the youngest on that list? If so, it shouldn't surprise he's at the bottom of the volume stats list, though it is telling that he's not thrown the least INTs on that list given that he's played the least amount of games. 

[Luvnit2]

(10-17-2015, 09:04 AM)PhilHos Wrote: Isn't Dalton the youngest on that list? If so, it shouldn't surprise he's at the bottom of the volume stats list, though it is telling that he's not thrown the least INTs on that list given that he's played the least amount of games. 

True, he has less years to throw picks so one area he needs to improve in the coming years.

But it also makes his TD's, yards, completions and QBR more impressive. I added QBR since he is the least experienced so hopefully his worst seasons are now behind him being in year #5 , but he had less time to overcome his youth (early starting days).

[Johnny Cupcakes]

(10-17-2015, 09:04 AM)PhilHos Wrote: Isn't Dalton the youngest on that list? If so, it shouldn't surprise he's at the bottom of the volume stats list, though it is telling that he's not thrown the least INTs on that list given that he's played the least amount of games. 

If it's only since 2011, then these players have all had the same amount of games (barring injury) to compile their stats.

[Baby Hawk]

(10-17-2015, 01:05 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Here's some more shits and giggles.

Since 2011, QBs with 2,250 attempts:

Brees
Brady
Rivers
Ryan
Dalton
E. Manning
Stafford
Flacco

8 quarterbacks.

Here's how Dalton ranks in that group with those qualifiers.

Att- 8th
Comp- 8th
Comp%- 5th
Yards- 8th
tds- 7th
ints- 5th (least)
qb rating- 5th

So, I'm not even sure if I am confused.  

If I am reading this right, this table covers the last 4 1/3 seasons.

Andy has the least amount of attempts, completions, and yards.  

He is seventh in number of touchdowns.

He is fifth in completion percentage, and fifth least in the number of interceptions.

Do I have that right?

Is he the only one for whom these stats include his rookie year?

[Rhinocero23]

(10-16-2015, 12:36 PM)Johnny Cupcakes Wrote: I don't really think he was a bottom 10 guy.  He was an average guy with a bottom 10 season, if that clarifies things a bit.

Still, it's pretty rare that a player makes the move from "average" to "elite".  That's why I'm pretty hesitant to give him that label.  He may be performing that way at the moment, but his performance may end up balancing out.  Just as when he performed like a bottom-of-the-barrel guy last year, not many people expect him to not improve on that this season.  It's most likely that he is still hovering around average to above average, and is having a streak of incredible play.....if not, and this is the real deal Andy, he's made one of the more drastic improvements in recent memory.

Pretty spot on...this "elite" level is over 1/4 of the season. Let's let the entire season play out and see where they all land. 

[*rfaulk34*]

(10-17-2015, 09:04 AM)PhilHos Wrote: Isn't Dalton the youngest on that list? If so, it shouldn't surprise he's at the bottom of the volume stats list, though it is telling that he's not thrown the least INTs on that list given that he's played the least amount of games. 

He's barely on the list (having just enough attempts). And, yes, the youngest as well. 

Having the least amount of attempts and completions, he's still #5 in completion% and QB rating. 

[*rfaulk34*]

Here's the list with all the numbers involved. This is from 2011-2015 with at least 2,250 pass attempts.



This included Matt Ryan's game this past Thursday. That's why he has 70 starts and the others have 69 (except for Brady who already had his bye this year).

[*rfaulk34*]

(10-17-2015, 09:53 AM)Johnny Cupcakes Wrote: If it's only since 2011, then these players have all had the same amount of games (barring injury) to compile their stats.

Yep

[*rfaulk34*]

(10-17-2015, 03:13 PM)Baby Hawk Wrote: So, I'm not even sure if I am confused.  

If I am reading this right, this table covers the last 4 1/3 seasons.

Andy has the least amount of attempts, completions, and yards.  

He is seventh in number of touchdowns.

He is fifth in completion percentage, and fifth least in the number of interceptions.

Do I have that right?

Is he the only one for whom these stats include his rookie year?

Check the graphic above.

[*Synric*]

The thing is Andy and Cam Newton are the best young QBs in the NFL right now. When they are pushing 32 or 33 most of the guys on that list will be retired and those 2 will be considered the NFL elite. Especially if they continue their current production.

[Stormborn]

(10-16-2015, 07:23 PM)Johnny Cupcakes Wrote: I would have put money on this.  Carson Palmer is an interception machine. Hopefully Andy gets past the point where he's being compared to him.

Which makes what he's done in Arizona since the beginning of last year pretty remarkable. 

24 TDs, 6 INTs, 63.7 COMP %, 7.9 YPA in 11 games since 2014 week 1.

Heck I saw Eli in this, let's throw him in here:

40 TDs, 16 INTs, 63.9 COMP %, 7.3 YPA in 21 games since 2014 week 1.

What does this mean? Right personnel + Right system + Overall health = ability to make a QB look better than what he really is. Which *prematurely ducks* may be happening in our own backyard.

[Atomic Orange]

(10-17-2015, 07:36 PM)Stormborn Wrote: Which makes what he's done in Arizona since the beginning of last year pretty remarkable. 

24 TDs, 6 INTs, 63.7 COMP %, 7.9 YPA in 11 games since 2014 week 1.

Heck I saw Eli in this, let's throw him in here:

40 TDs, 16 INTs, 63.9 COMP %, 7.3 YPA in 21 games since 2014 week 1.

What does this mean? Right personnel + Right system + Overall health = ability to make a QB look better than what he really is. Which *prematurely ducks* may be happening in our own backyard.

Eli Manning 2 time SB MVP against what some consider to be the best team of all time.  I'd say he's done his job if it's all about winning championships.  Yet he is another guy that never gets enough respect because hey, football is a QB game and his numbers just don't match up.

[*Nately120*]

(10-16-2015, 06:57 PM)WhoDeyWho Wrote: Dalton's career TD to interception ratio is higher than Carson Palmer.  

(10-16-2015, 07:23 PM)Johnny Cupcakes Wrote: I would have put money on this.  Carson Palmer is an interception machine. Hopefully Andy gets past the point where he's being compared to him.

You'd actually be right and sort of wrong (though very slightly) on this one.  The only way Dalton has a significantly (as in more than .003) better TD to INT ratio is if you don't count his performance in the 4 playoff games.  I do count those, because I plan on counting them this season when Dalton throws around 10 or so TDs on the road to the Super Bowl.

The truth of it is that Dalton and Palmer have some very similar numbers.  I actually (a while back) extrapolated Dalton's INT % (pre-2015 tear) to Palmer's number of attempts (pre 2015 tear of his) and what I came up with was Dalton throwing 1 less INT in as many attempts.  The guys are pretty similar, though one could argue the TD stat is misleading because Palmer lead the league in TD's with 32 and Dalton threw 33 TDs and ended up 20 or so short of the #1 spot.  The times they are a changing.

Anyways, both guys put up some similar numbers.  Sorry, not much controversy here. Dalton has a super slight lead in TD to INT ratio (.003, to be exact), and Palmer is a fraction more efficient in throwing TDs with Dalton a fraction more efficient at not throwing picks. The bottom line is you can expect each guy to throw a TD every 21 attempts and an INT every 32. Also of note, both guys threw 20 INTs on exactly 586 attempts. It's like a living mirror, at times.

Both guys throw an INT every 32 (33 for Dalton if you want to round up) attempts, so if Palmer is an interception machine I guess we traded him for a slightly newer model interception machine 2.0?

[Luvnit2]

(10-18-2015, 01:08 AM)Nately120 Wrote:


You'd actually be right and sort of wrong (though very slightly) on this one.  The only way Dalton has a significantly (as in more than .003) better TD to INT ratio is if you don't count his performance in the 4 playoff games.  I do count those, because I plan on counting them this season when Dalton throws around 10 or so TDs on the road to the Super Bowl.

The truth of it is that Dalton and Palmer have some very similar numbers.  I actually (a while back) extrapolated Dalton's INT % (pre-2015 tear) to Palmer's number of attempts (pre 2015 tear of his) and what I came up with was Dalton throwing 1 less INT in as many attempts.  The guys are pretty similar, though one could argue the TD stat is misleading because Palmer lead the league in TD's with 32 and Dalton threw 33 TDs and ended up 20 or so short of the #1 spot.  The times they are a changing.

Anyways, both guys put up some similar numbers.  Sorry, not much controversy here.  Dalton has a super slight lead in TD to INT ratio (.003, to be exact), and Palmer is a fraction more efficient in throwing TDs with Dalton a fraction more efficient at not throwing picks.  The bottom line is you can expect each guy to throw a TD every 21 attempts and an INT every 32.  Also of note, both guys threw 20 INTs on exactly 586 attempts.  It's like a living mirror, at times.

Both guys throw an INT every 32 (33 for Dalton if you want to round up) attempts, so if Palmer is an interception machine I guess we traded him for a slightly newer model interception machine 2.0?

Palmer sat as a rookie, Dalton did not.

You are comparing a seasoned vet stats to a 4+ year QB so you would think the vet would put up a lot better numbers.

My point is QB's who survive their early years more often than not improve with game experience.

[*Nately120*]

(10-18-2015, 10:42 AM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Palmer sat as a rookie, Dalton did not.

You are comparing a seasoned vet stats to a 4+ year QB so you would think the vet would put up a lot better numbers.

My point is QB's who survive their early years more often than not improve with game experience.

Yes, but Palmer also played his prime in days when TD's weren't as plentiful and QBs got rattled a bit more.  My bottom line with Palmer and Dalton is both guys were pretty good and I'm less inclined to pit them as rivals than others.  Dalton is playing better now, so I guess it's cathartic for some people to claim Palmer was somewhat crappy.

I get it, but I just try to be consistent.  I'm more forgiving of Dalton and Palmer compared to my peers.  Most of my friends are Steelers and Packers fans that love to give me a hard time about terrible my favorite 2 QBs are, so I'm used to shrugging.

[*PhilHos*]

(10-18-2015, 07:45 PM)Nately120 Wrote: Yes, but Palmer also played his prime in days when TD's weren't as plentiful and QBs got rattled a bit more.  My bottom line with Palmer and Dalton is both guys were pretty good and I'm less inclined to pit them as rivals than others.  Dalton is playing better now, so I guess it's cathartic for some people to claim Palmer was somewhat crappy.

I get it, but I just try to be consistent.  I'm more forgiving of Dalton and Palmer compared to my peers.  Most of my friends are Steelers and Packers fans that love to give me a hard time about terrible my favorite 2 QBs are, so I'm used to shrugging.

Just now noticed that your avi has a big red X over it.