Trade Rumor: 3 team trade, Senzel for Kluber

[Yojimbo]

Report out this morning that the Reds, Indians and Padres are near completion on a trade that would bring Kluber to Cincy and send Senzel to the Padres. Gotta say, I think this is the best scenario to get an ace. Senzel is ready, but blocked at every position, which makes an ideal trade chip. We get Kluber for at least 3 years at very reasonable salaries, way less than we would pay somebody like Keuchel on the open market.

https://www.mlb.com/reds/news/corey-kluber-three-team-trade-rumors/c-302732380

[guyofthetiger]

I agree we should consider trading Senzel. He has not proven himself yet at the major league level. Kluber would be a big lift to the pitching staff.

[CJD]

I wouldn't call it near completion. Everything I've read talks about it primarily in theory.

That said, I'd HATE a 1 for 1 trade of sending Senzel and receiving Kluber (with San Diego involved in some way).

If we trade Senzel for Kluber, I'd expect something else in addition, possibly one of San Diego's top prospects.

The fact is we are not knocking on the door to the World Series. So there's no reason to give away 6 to 7 years of a potential future star for 3 years of a potentially fading Ace.

Even with Kluber, we are probably just a Wild Card team, so...if our goal is to reach the wild card or maybe the divisional round for a year or two then okay. But if you want to compete for a World Series in 2 or 3 years, you keep Senzel.

[Circleville Guy]

The Indians want outfielders, I’d try to deal directly first and offer Kemp and Trammell for Kluber and try to keep Senzel. I don’t know what players the Indians are getting from the SDP’s but Kemp and Trammell seems strong, even if the Reds send some money.

[fredtoast]

(01-16-2019, 06:14 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I wouldn't call it near completion. Everything I've read talks about it primarily in theory.

That said, I'd HATE a 1 for 1 trade of sending Senzel and receiving Kluber (with San Diego involved in some way).

If we trade Senzel for Kluber, I'd expect something else in addition, possibly one of San Diego's top prospects.

You have to be joking.

Senzel has not even proven he can hit in the majors while Kluber is just 32 and has finished in the top 3 in Cy Young voting for three straight years.  He was 20-7 and led the American league in innings pitched last year.

I am astonished that we could possibly get an ace for a prospect that is not even considered among the best in the minors.

[CJD]

(01-16-2019, 07:31 PM)fredtoast Wrote: You have to be joking.

Senzel has not even proven he can hit in the majors while Kluber is just 32 and has finished in the top 3 in Cy Young voting for three straight years.  He was 20-7 and led the American league in innings pitched last year.

I am astonished that we could possibly get an ace for a prospect that is not even considered among the best in the minors.

Kluber will be 33 before he starts the next season. 

And it's not purely a matter of what you give up and what you receive. It's the timing of it. 

If we were 1 Ace away from contending for the World Series, I'd do this trade instantly.

But we aren't.

Especially since Wood, Roark, Puig, Kemp and Gennett will all be free agents next off season, so 2020 there is a real possibility we'd be FARTHER from contending than closer. 

If we are true contenders by the time Kluber's contract expires, we'd be lucky.

Senzel is vastly more likely to be part of the next great Reds team than Kluber is.

7 years of Senzel >>>>>>>>>> 3 years of Kluber.

[grampahol]

(01-16-2019, 07:31 PM)fredtoast Wrote: You have to be joking.

Senzel has not even proven he can hit in the majors while Kluber is just 32 and has finished in the top 3 in Cy Young voting for three straight years.  He was 20-7 and led the American league in innings pitched last year.

I am astonished that we could possibly get an ace for a prospect that is not even considered among the best in the minors.

I have to agree. While I do like the idea of bringing Senzel up to the big leagues with the Reds, he still hasn't proven anything at this level while Kluber most certainly has. It's not like Senzel hit .499 and knocked in 50HRs a season.. He's been respectable, but nothing HOF worthy yet.. 
A few fans act like he's already proven everything there is to prove.

[fredtoast]

(01-16-2019, 09:22 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: 7 years of Senzel >>>>>>>>>> 3 years of Kluber.

Not if Senzel can't hit in the majors.

Do I really need to post a list of prospects who hit in the minors but not in the majors to prove my point?

Leaguewide is Senzel even considered a top 20 prospect?

[Yojimbo]

(01-16-2019, 06:14 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I wouldn't call it near completion. Everything I've read talks about it primarily in theory.

That said, I'd HATE a 1 for 1 trade of sending Senzel and receiving Kluber (with San Diego involved in some way).

If we trade Senzel for Kluber, I'd expect something else in addition, possibly one of San Diego's top prospects.

The fact is we are not knocking on the door to the World Series. So there's no reason to give away 6 to 7 years of a potential future star for 3 years of a potentially fading Ace.

Even with Kluber, we are probably just a Wild Card team, so...if our goal is to reach the wild card or maybe the divisional round for a year or two then okay. But if you want to compete for a World Series in 2 or 3 years, you keep Senzel.

In defense of thread title and my OP, that article I linked to was changed later in the morning. It’s opening line was initially a deal was nearing completion. That’s what got me excited to post it. As it currently is written, it is all theory and guessing. Not worth a thread.

[CJD]

(01-17-2019, 01:25 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Not if Senzel can't hit in the majors.

Do I really need to post a list of prospects who hit in the minors but not in the majors to prove my point?

Leaguewide is Senzel even considered a top 20 prospect?

All indications are that Senzel will hit in the majors.

If you want to post a list of prospects who hit in the minors but not in the majors, you can. 

I could also post a list of prospects who were traded for short term gains that became super stars with their new team.

I could also post an explicit example of a trade rumor that fell through back in 2008 that would have sent Joey Votto and either Johnny Cueto or Homer Bailey to Oakland for Joe Blanton, a trade that Paul Daugherty, at the time, heavily advocated for the following reason:

"Blanton is a proven winner, a guy who threw 230 innings last year, gave up only 16 homers in the AL and walked only 40 hitters. Cueto is. . . is. . . we don’t know. Same for Votto and Bailey."

http://thecomeback.com/freezingcoldtakes/mlb/2008-local-columnist-advocated-reds-trade-votto-cueto-bailey-joe-blanton.html


As for Senzel's rating, on MLB.com, in 2018, Senzel was ranked the 6th best prospect in Baseball.
http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018/

The 2019 rankings are coming out on the 26th, so we'll see if he's climbed that list any further.

[Circleville Guy]

Senzel has looked too good to be a complete flop. At worst, he’s a .270ish hitter with mediocre power. At best, he could be our next Votto. If they trade him for Kluber, the Reds are automatic contenders for the division for the next 3 years. If they keep Senzel, I do believe that he will develop into a star player. The Reds will still need to acquire better pitching regardless to make a division title run. The new editions have moved the starting 5 from terrible to mediocre. I applaud the Reds this offseason but the team will need a Hammer to make a serious run.

[BrownAssClown]

Not to change the subject, but I will. Does anyone know how Hunter Greene is doing and how his rehab is going? I heard he was to be throwing by now. I wonder if he'll be ready by spring training? Will he get an invite to spring training? He's young, so I imagine the Reds won't rush him back.

[Circleville Guy]

(01-17-2019, 05:41 PM)BrownAssClown Wrote: Not to change the subject, but I will. Does anyone know how Hunter Greene is doing and how his rehab is going? I heard he was to be throwing by now. I wonder if he'll be ready by spring training? Will he get an invite to spring training? He's young, so I imagine the Reds won't rush him back.

I don’t know but they are going to have to spend 3 or 4 years trying to get innings if they plan on using him as a starter. He has to be raw, he’s pitched so few innings the last couple of years. To me, he has closer written all over him.

[Hoofhearted]

(01-16-2019, 09:22 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Kluber will be 33 before he starts the next season. 

And it's not purely a matter of what you give up and what you receive. It's the timing of it. 

If we were 1 Ace away from contending for the World Series, I'd do this trade instantly.

But we aren't.

Especially since Wood, Roark, Puig, Kemp and Gennett will all be free agents next off season, so 2020 there is a real possibility we'd be FARTHER from contending than closer. 

If we are true contenders by the time Kluber's contract expires, we'd be lucky.

Senzel is vastly more likely to be part of the next great Reds team than Kluber is.

7 years of Senzel >>>>>>>>>> 3 years of Kluber.

I have to side with J Dawg here. Not to even mention the financial side of things, and the fact that pitchers are SOOOO risky. This is the type of move you make when you're contending, not desperate. I know they really want to mend some fences with the fans, but I think they've done a really good job at that up and to this point. Don't get to ballsy lol

[Hoofhearted]

(01-17-2019, 09:24 PM)Circleville Guy Wrote: I don’t know but they are going to have to spend 3 or 4 years trying to get innings if they plan on using him as a starter. He has to be raw, he’s pitched so few innings the last couple of years. To me, he has closer written all over him.

No way. They're grooming him to be a starter. I think he can be a #2 or #3 pitcher. But he's still a few years away. 

To answer the other question, they don't set the spring training roster until after the World Series and 40 man roster is set. 

[Circleville Guy]

I was just trying to say that he’s yet to experience a year where he’s had very many innings. If they want him to be a starter, they will have to gradually build his innings and it’s probably gonna take 3-4 years. If they rush him to get him up here, it will be as a closer. I can’t remember but it seems like he didn’t even pitch his senior year, I could be wrong. If they’re looking for an everyday starter in the bigs, he’s quite a ways off. I see injury all over this kid if they push too hard. It would’ve awesome to see him in 4-5 years as the Ace of the Reds... Gotta build up that endurance and see how that golden arm reacts first though. If he is only seen as a future starter, I see zero reason to give him a spring training spot this year. Don’t take another guys spot if he’s 3-4 years away.

[Hoofhearted]

(01-18-2019, 11:09 AM)Circleville Guy Wrote: I was just trying to say that he’s yet to experience a year where he’s had very many innings. If they want him to be a starter, they will have to gradually build his innings and it’s probably gonna take 3-4 years. If they rush him to get him up here, it will be as a closer. I can’t remember but it seems like he didn’t even pitch his senior year, I could be wrong. If they’re looking for an everyday starter in the bigs, he’s quite a ways off. I see injury all over this kid if they push too hard. It would’ve awesome to see him in 4-5 years as the Ace of the Reds... Gotta build up that endurance and see how that golden arm reacts first though. If he is only seen as a future starter, I see zero reason to give him a spring training spot this year. Don’t take another guys spot if he’s 3-4 years away.

He's pitched at least 200 innings since 2014. If anything, I worry about the tread left on the tires for lack of a better term. 

meanwhile, we haven't had a 200 inning pitcher since 2014. 

[Hoofhearted]

(01-17-2019, 02:41 AM)grampahol Wrote: I have to agree. While I do like the idea of bringing Senzel up to the big leagues with the Reds, he still hasn't proven anything at this level while Kluber most certainly has. It's not like Senzel hit .499 and knocked in 50HRs a season.. He's been respectable, but nothing HOF worthy yet.. 
A few fans act like he's already proven everything there is to prove.

It's not smart baseball roster management for a small market team. If they were the Yankees or Dodgers, sure, go get Harper, Kluber, Machado and don't worry as much about the prospects. But we're not those teams. You absolutely have to have players still on pre-arb deals that can play in the majors. 

[Circleville Guy]

(01-18-2019, 11:13 AM)Hoofhearted Wrote: He's pitched at least 200 innings since 2014. If anything, I worry about the tread left on the tires for lack of a better term. 

meanwhile, we haven't had a 200 inning pitcher since 2014. 

That’s an average of 40 innings a year.

[Hoofhearted]

(01-18-2019, 12:11 PM)Circleville Guy Wrote: That’s an average of 40 innings a year.

He's pitched at least 200 innings a year