It's time to put an end to Model Model

[SunsetBengal]

(02-10-2019, 03:33 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: Well...we have too many holes to fill in one draft alone. You have to use free agency to fill some of these.

We've lost quite a few impact free agents over the past 3-4 years...and failed to replace most through the draft with similar quality. Now, we're forced to use free agency atleast at some level.

Now I don't think anyone wants us to go out on Day 1 and throw massive contracts at guys. I'm talking Tier 2 and 3 free agents.

Agreed, I don't want to see them just throwing money away, simply for the sake of it.  However, if they had a plan to say fill the starting Tackle, LB, or even CB situation with high quality signings, in an effort to free up the draft?  I would be all for it.  (I say CB because it might just come to that if say, Dennard doesn't want to sign for what they want to offer)

I could even reason them spending medium money on some proven depth at WR, OG, TE, or DL, if they're not completely comfortable with what's coming back on the roster.

[bengaloo]

(02-10-2019, 04:17 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Biggest problem with free agents is that their price is not always based on ability.  Price is based on supply and demand.  A player who is just decent can get a huge salary if his position is in demand and there are not many options on the market.

That is where many teams mess up.  They overpay for a player because they are desperate and there are no other good options.

This is a good point. It does happen that way a lot.

That being said I'm ready to make major tweaks to model model. And on a side note, just typing model model made me think of that movie Zoolander. I always thought I wanted to be an actor/model. Or maybe a model/actor lol

[Joelist]

The thing to remember is both Brown and Glenn got slowed by injuries last year, and prior to the injuries both were looking pretty good. After the injuries they were hampered in mobility but our utter lack of competent depth meant they had to play through until they basically lost their seasons.

Realistically we need two starter quality Free Agents, a LB and a RT. And by starter I mean legit starter not a marginal "starter".

[Yojimbo]

(02-10-2019, 03:35 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: What I never liked about Model Model was it talked about how free agency was risky where the draft was not.

Look at any draft. Out of 7 picks you'll be lucky to get 2 starters and that's not even calling them good starters.

Out of 1st Round picks maybe 25% of them turn into good starters. Free agents atleast have game tape and a history competing against NFL level talent.

When openers talk of risk, they don’t mean risk of bad player. What they mean is FA is a bigger risk because it costs them more money, while draft picks are cheap.

[THE PISTONS]

(02-10-2019, 05:13 PM)Joelist Wrote: The thing to remember is both Brown and Glenn got slowed by injuries last year, and prior to the injuries both were looking pretty good. After the injuries they were hampered in mobility but our utter lack of competent depth meant they had to play through until they basically lost their seasons.

Realistically we need two starter quality Free Agents, a LB and a RT. And by starter I mean legit starter not a marginal "starter".

Glenn has now been injured sizeable portions of the past 3 years. He's a 6 foot 7, 340 lb guy. It appears that his body just isn't handling the rigors of the NFL very well.

He played in 11 games in 2016. 6 in 2017. And 13 this past year.

[THE PISTONS]

(02-10-2019, 04:17 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Biggest problem with free agents is that their price is not always based on ability.  Price is based on supply and demand.  A player who is just decent can get a huge salary if his position is in demand and there are not many options on the market.

That is where many teams mess up.  They overpay for a player because they are desperate and there are no other good options.

Well and the salary cap rises each year generally...so guys that may be worth $5 million get $6 or 7 million.

A guy like Dennard, is probably worth $5 or 6 million a year, but there might be some team that gives him $8-9-10 million and tries to start him for instance.

[Joelist]

Glenn IIRC was a back injury and I am sure the new staff is going to look at him carefully before deciding what to target in Free Agency et al. I agree he is going to need a careful offseason program and we may wind up going after LT and moving Glenn inside to RG or something like that.

On the other hand, the tackle class this year is pretty meh so ZT may feel he needs to ride Glenn and fix other areas.

[THE PISTONS]

(02-10-2019, 08:07 PM)Joelist Wrote: Glenn IIRC was a back injury and I am sure the new staff is going to look at him carefully before deciding what to target in Free Agency et al. I agree he is going to need a careful offseason program and we may wind up going after LT and moving Glenn inside to RG or something like that.

On the other hand, the tackle class this year is pretty meh so ZT may feel he needs to ride Glenn and fix other areas.

We need a RT even if Glenn is the LT.

IF Glenn isn't the answer at LT, then we need 2 Tackles.

It's pretty simple.

And like I said, he's now been injured 3 years in a row. I doubt he ever has a full year of health.

[SunsetBengal]

(02-10-2019, 08:07 PM)Joelist Wrote: Glenn IIRC was a back injury and I am sure the new staff is going to look at him carefully before deciding what to target in Free Agency et al. I agree he is going to need a careful offseason program and we may wind up going after LT and moving Glenn inside to RG or something like that.

On the other hand, the tackle class this year is pretty meh so ZT may feel he needs to ride Glenn and fix other areas.

With Glenn's injury history, he's not worth half of what he's scheduled to be paid.  Sure, he played in 13 games this past season, but how many of those 13 was he slowed by injury, before finally going down for the count?  Shifting him in to Guard really isn't a smart option, either.  Not only is he making LT money, but putting a 6'7" Guard, right in front of your QB doesn't do much for his downfield vision..  The team is essentially in the market for two OTs right now.  

[McC]

(02-10-2019, 09:47 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: With Glenn's injury history, he's not worth half of what he's scheduled to be paid.  Sure, he played in 13 games this past season, but how many of those 13 was he slowed by injury, before finally going down for the count?  Shifting him in to Guard really isn't a smart option, either.  Not only is he making LT money, but putting a 6'7" Guard, right in front of your QB doesn't do much for his downfield vision..  The team is essentially in the market for two OTs right now.  

I'm convinced Glenn's biggest problem is his weight.  If a guy has a bad back, a giant belly is a big problem.  And carrying too much weight is murder on knees and feet too.  Take 25 pounds off him and see how much he improves.

[Joelist]

I gather Glenn has a cap hit of 9.25 million.

Yes he needs to rehab and yes he needs to drop weight - how much is going to be up to him and the training staff. The problem is he is so much better than any other tackle we have and this tackle draft class is weak so they may feel locked into him this upcoming season.

[Shake n Blake]

(02-10-2019, 03:15 PM)BengalChris Wrote: https://www.bengals.com/news/model-model-7033688

Back in 2012 Mike Brown or Marvin Lewis or someone else came up with this Model Model thing and after a full 7 years of getting very little out of free agency and comp picks, and combine those two failures with a series of poor draft decisions and this team sank to 3 losing seasons in the last 3.

I pulled up this article again today and went through it and it reminded me of just how fearful Mike Brown has always been of free agency. At one point it talks about 3 expensive free agents the Bengals signed and uses this as the reason to not sign big free agents.

But, in reviewing it all again, none of those 3 expensive free agent had a career prior to coming to the Bengals that warranted those contracts, plus the Bengals didn't do their homework on these guys. One of the them mentioned was Antonio Bryant, who was signed despite being injured and never played a down for the Bengals. Another, Coles, was a #2 WR and a decent one in NY but hardly a player worth an expensive contract. And then there was Antwan Odom who had 12.5 sacks in 4 seasons with the Titan and a guy who only started an entire season once prior to being signed by the Bengals. Hardly production worthy of an expensive contract, even though Odom did have one good stretch for the Bengals before exiting with a season ending injury, the team considered it a failed signing.

NFL free agents are guys who have been playing in the league and there's tons of film on each of them (a lot more film than exists on colleges players) and if there isn't any film on them they didn't get playing time. So it is rather mystifying as to how much of a crap shoot these guys are. Really they shouldn't be much of a crap shoot at all as the team should be able to see exactly how that player performs and what their attitude is.

The articles likes to bring up Pittsburgh and New England as examples. However, those teams have a good track record of developing players who step up and fill the roles left by departing verterans. The Mike Brown front office has little history of success in that department. Look at how long it took the team to develop a WR to replace Marvin Jones and it still hasn't found a replacement for right tackle or right guard, and they had to make a trade to get someone fill the left tackle spot. That's an awful lot of failed development right there at those 4 positions.

Then we come to the comp picks. These picks are supposedly to replacement departing veterans who left in free agency, except the round and pick never seem to be fair compensation for the talent that walked out the door. We got a 5th round pick for Whit. Laughable.

It's time to put Model Model to rest once and for all.

Amen. I always found it funny that Mike used his own dumb choices for why he avoided free agency. It's kinda like bashing your toe because you don't pick your feet up enough, then deciding to swear off walking. Tbh, I think that was just an excuse fed to the public. What people forget is that most of those stupid FA choices were still cheaper than the alternative...

- Lavernues Coles was cheaper than the contract Housh wanted
- So was Antonio Bryant
- Odom was significantly cheaper than the contract Justin Smith got from San Fran
- Nate Clements and Jason Allen, etc were way cheaper than Johnathan Joseph

So basically he cheaped out on a few of his own players, spun it like he spent big in free agency and got bit, then used that as an excuse to never spend big in free agency again. 

[BengalChris]

(02-10-2019, 11:05 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Amen. I always found it funny that Mike used his own dumb choices for why he avoided free agency. It's kinda like bashing your toe because you don't pick your feet up enough, then deciding to swear off walking. Tbh, I think that was just an excuse fed to the public. What people forget is that most of those stupid FA choices were still cheaper than the alternative...

- Lavernues Coles was cheaper than the contract Housh wanted
- So was Antonio Bryant
- Odom was significantly cheaper than the contract Justin Smith got from San Fran
- Nate Clements and Jason Allen, etc were way cheaper than Johnathan Joseph

So basically he cheaped out on a few of his own players, spun it like he spent big in free agency and got bit, then used that as an excuse to never spend big in free agency again. 

YESSSSSSS! That's a great description of Mike Brown.

[*Synric*]

(02-10-2019, 11:05 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Amen. I always found it funny that Mike used his own dumb choices for why he avoided free agency. It's kinda like bashing your toe because you don't pick your feet up enough, then deciding to swear off walking. Tbh, I think that was just an excuse fed to the public. What people forget is that most of those stupid FA choices were still cheaper than the alternative...

- Lavernues Coles was cheaper than the contract Housh wanted
- So was Antonio Bryant
- Odom was significantly cheaper than the contract Justin Smith got from San Fran
- Nate Clements and Jason Allen, etc were way cheaper than Johnathan Joseph

So basically he cheaped out on a few of his own players, spun it like he spent big in free agency and got bit, then used that as an excuse to never spend big in free agency again. 

Didnt Housh take off because he was tired of living in Chad's shadow?

They offered Joseph the same contract they ended up giving Leon Hall and even though it was less guaranteed Hall ended up making more money.

[J24]

(02-10-2019, 04:22 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: Wright is ranked as the #42 free agent at PFF. He played 5 games last year. Here is his analysis:


Wright has been trending downwards ever since he earned an 88.3 overall grade back in 2015. The Seahawks linebacker hasn’t graded above 70.0 in coverage since, and he will be 30 next season. He’s still one of the best tackling linebackers in the NFL and has only one season with double-digit misses in his career (2014).

He is the 4th best free agent lb according to pro football focus and he should be relatively cheap. 

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(02-10-2019, 03:15 PM)BengalChris Wrote: https://www.bengals.com/news/model-model-7033688

Back in 2012 Mike Brown or Marvin Lewis or someone else came up with this Model Model thing and after a full 7 years of getting very little out of free agency and comp picks, and combine those two failures with a series of poor draft decisions and this team sank to 3 losing seasons in the last 3.

I pulled up this article again today and went through it and it reminded me of just how fearful Mike Brown has always been of free agency. At one point it talks about 3 expensive free agents the Bengals signed and uses this as the reason to not sign big free agents.

But, in reviewing it all again, none of those 3 expensive free agent had a career prior to coming to the Bengals that warranted those contracts, plus the Bengals didn't do their homework on these guys. One of the them mentioned was Antonio Bryant, who was signed despite being injured and never played a down for the Bengals. Another, Coles, was a #2 WR and a decent one in NY but hardly a player worth an expensive contract. And then there was Antwan Odom who had 12.5 sacks in 4 seasons with the Titan and a guy who only started an entire season once prior to being signed by the Bengals. Hardly production worthy of an expensive contract, even though Odom did have one good stretch for the Bengals before exiting with a season ending injury, the team considered it a failed signing.

NFL free agents are guys who have been playing in the league and there's tons of film on each of them (a lot more film than exists on colleges players) and if there isn't any film on them they didn't get playing time. So it is rather mystifying as to how much of a crap shoot these guys are. Really they shouldn't be much of a crap shoot at all as the team should be able to see exactly how that player performs and what their attitude is.

The articles likes to bring up Pittsburgh and New England as examples. However, those teams have a good track record of developing players who step up and fill the roles left by departing verterans. The Mike Brown front office has little history of success in that department. Look at how long it took the team to develop a WR to replace Marvin Jones and it still hasn't found a replacement for right tackle or right guard, and they had to make a trade to get someone fill the left tackle spot. That's an awful lot of failed development right there at those 4 positions.

Then we come to the comp picks. These picks are supposedly to replacement departing veterans who left in free agency, except the round and pick never seem to be fair compensation for the talent that walked out the door. We got a 5th round pick for Whit. Laughable.

It's time to put Model Model to rest once and for all.

While I absolutely agree about the need to gain more value via FA, the real issue with that model was the inability to coach up and develop players.  That just had a tendency to not happen here.  

[THE PISTONS]

(02-10-2019, 09:57 PM)McC Wrote: I'm convinced Glenn's biggest problem is his weight.  If a guy has a bad back, a giant belly is a big problem.  And carrying too much weight is murder on knees and feet too.  Take 25 pounds off him and see how much he improves.

You are probably right on this.

In his last 2 years with Buffalo, I'm pretty sure he had issues with his feet that caused him to miss A LOT of time.

He's just a huge guy and it's a lot of stress on his back and joints as you accurately assessed. Chances are, it won't get better with age.

[THE PISTONS]

(02-10-2019, 10:37 PM)Joelist Wrote: I gather Glenn has a cap hit of 9.25 million.

Yes he needs to rehab and yes he needs to drop weight - how much is going to be up to him and the training staff. The problem is he is so much better than any other tackle we have and this tackle draft class is weak so they may feel locked into him this upcoming season.

I read that his cap hit is: $11,250,000. His base salary is $9.25 million.

[THE PISTONS]

(02-11-2019, 02:19 AM)Jakeypoo Wrote: He is the 4th best free agent lb according to pro football focus and he should be relatively cheap. 

I'd be all for signing Wright, Mosley, Hicks, etc.

Would any of those guys come here is the question?

[THE PISTONS]

(02-11-2019, 10:47 AM)Wyche Wrote: While I absolutely agree about the need to gain more value via FA, the real issue with that model was the inability to coach up and develop players.  That just had a tendency to not happen here.  

Yes - Our draft picks generally either come in playing well as a rookie, or are busts.

How many guys outside of Boyd have came in looking average and then developed to the point that by year 3 they were good players?