Look at Near End of Spring Training

[kevin]

As Reds are close to regular season, some good and bad so far.

The Bad : Votto, Winker, Castillo. Votto and Winker hitting .100 something would have most guys not making the team. Castillo has been serving up batting practice with not a real good start yet. Also Wood injured, which has been one of his problems with Dodgers.

The Good : Roark is pitching pretty good this Spring. Puig and Kemp and Joe from Dodgers are hitting. Schebler is hitting. Gennett and Saurez look ready. Peraza doing OK. Ervin is hitting. Senzel os hitting. There are catchers hitting better than Barnhart, which could make that position not such a lock for Barnhart

The Reds record in the Spring is awful. Mostly because the pitching still gives up too many runs.

Reds are counting on Votto due to his paycheck, but Votto was awful in 2018 and so far in Spring Training.

Winker fans won't like this, but if Votto is batting .100, they can't afford Winker to bat .100 also. Does Winker still have minor league options ? If so, the Reds are crowded in outfield with guys that are hitting.

Reds Pitching is still struggling. It's early, it Spring Training. So far Roark is best of Reds starters. Castillo is one of worst so far.

Reds kind of need Votto and Castillo to get going because they need to win coming out of the gate next week. Reds have 11 of their 81 home games before April 15th. There is an urgency for this team to get it together ASAP and come out ready to go.

Again, they can't play both Votto and Winker batting .100 and not with so many others hitting the ball pretty good. They will of course play Votto, which means Winker needs to sit, maybe even hit the minors.

If you would go on Spring Training, Roark would be the Opening Day pitcher. Somebody besides Barnhardt at catcher. I could see the 2 Dodgers in Left and Right and Senzel or Ervin or Schebler in Center. Gennett, Peraza, Suarez. Votto at First in hopes he can turn it around. If he has options, Winker could be in Triple A.

If Reds don't keep Rule 5 Joe who plays all positions and is hitting, then Dodgers will be getting a very good young player right back. Reds may not be able to keep him, but not because he hasn't played well.

It could be the Reds have too many outfielders and infielders and catchers and not enough pitching still. It's hard to trade for pitching though. Hopefully the pitching does much better once Opening Day hits.

I'm also hoping the pitcher bats 9th this year. Reds GM over rates Tony LaRussa and his Cardinals past. The guy that should get the least at bats in a game is the last hitter, so bat the pitcher last as teams have done in history of the game and the heck with Tony LaRussa.

[fredtoast]

You are putting way too much meaning on a few spring training ABs.  Winker has almost 500 major league at bats with a .299 average.  He is healthy as far as I know.  He is not going to hit anywhere near .100.

If he goes 3-4 in his next spring training game he will raise his batting average 53 points.

[CJD]

Keep in mind the average player in spring training right now has between 20 and 35 at bats.

Judging any established player on those metrics is silly, especially when they may be practicing different hitting techniques or strategies (or, in the case of pitchers, new pitches).

And Votto still has an OBP of .469, so he's not really struggling as bad as his BA appears.

And calling his 2018 awful is a massive exaggeration. It was a disappointment because we're so used to elite numbers from him, but he still had a line of .284/.417/.419. His BA was well above average and his OBP was tops in the league. If that's awful, then I feel pretty good about him rebounding in 2019.

Let's keep in mind that in 2017, Patrick Kivlehan hit .370/.407/.630 in spring training and then proceeded to hit .208/.304/.399 in the regular season.
And that's just one of many many many examples.

[Circleville Guy]

(03-19-2019, 10:54 AM)kevin Wrote: As Reds are close to regular season, some good and bad so far.

The Bad : Votto, Winker, Castillo. Votto and Winker hitting .100 something would have most guys not making the team. Castillo has been serving up batting practice with not a real good start yet. Also Wood injured, which has been one of his problems with Dodgers.

The Good : Roark is pitching pretty good this Spring. Puig and Kemp and Joe from Dodgers are hitting. Schebler is hitting. Gennett and Saurez look ready. Peraza doing OK. Ervin is hitting. There are catchers hitting better than Barnhart, which could make that position not such a lock for Barnhart

The Reds record in the Spring is awful. Mostly because the pitching still gives up too many runs.

Reds are counting on Votto due to his paycheck, but Votto was awful in 2018 and so far in Spring Training.

Winker fans won't like this, but if Votto is batting .100, they can't afford Winker to bat .100 also. Does Winker still have minor league options ? If so, the Reds are crowded in outfield with guys that are hitting.

Reds Pitching is still struggling. It's early, it Spring Training. So far Roark is best of Reds starters. Castillo is one of worst so far.

Reds kind of need Votto and Castillo to get going because they need to win coming out of the gate next week. Reds have 11 of their 81 home games before April 15th. There is an urgency for this team to get it together ASAP and come out ready to go.

Again, they can't play both Votto and Winker batting .100 and not with so many others hitting the ball pretty good. They will of course play Votto, which means Winker needs to sit, maybe even hit the minors.

If you would go on Spring Training, Roark would be the Opening Day pitcher. Somebody besides Barnhardt at catcher. I could see the 2 Dodgers in Left and Right and Ervin or Schebler in Center. Gennett, Peraza, Suarez. Votto at First in hopes he can turn it around. If he has options, Winker could be in Triple A.

If Reds don't keep Rule 5 Joe who plays all positions and is hitting, then Dodgers will be getting a very good young player right back. Reds may not be able to keep him, but not because he hasn't played well.

It could be the Reds have too many outfielders and infielders and catchers and not enough pitching still. It's hard to trade for pitching though. Hopefully the pitching does much better once Opening Day hits.

I'm also hoping the pitcher bats 9th this year. Reds GM over rates Tony LaRussa and his Cardinals past. The guy that should get the least at bats in a game is the last hitter, so bat the pitcher last as teams have done in history of the game and the heck with Tony LaRussa.

It is important to start good out of the gate but you have to be careful of knee jerk reactions. Votto had a down year by his standards but still had a decent year by league standards. OBP is a more important number than Batting Average and both of these guys have a fantastic history of getting on base. I am a little concerned with Castillo though and for some strange reason, he was just named the opening day starter. I agree with what your saying about batting the pitcher 8th, I think that it’s just overthinking the game. It probably backfired as much or even more than just slotting him 9th and just playing the game. I really think that the DH will be in the NL sometime very soon and it won’t matter. I think that the Reds May try to trade a player or send cash for Joe and then send him to AAA.

[fredtoast]

(03-19-2019, 04:53 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Let's keep in mind that in 2017, Patrick Kivlehan hit .370/.407/.630 in spring training and then proceeded to hit .208/.304/.399 in the regular season.

How could anyone ever forget Patrick Kivlehan?

[McC]

Very good chance Senzel is the next CF. He can hit, he has great wheels and looks like he's been playing CF for years.

[CJD]

(03-20-2019, 03:05 PM)McC Wrote: Very good chance Senzel is the next CF.  He can hit, he has great wheels and looks like he's been playing CF for years.

This catch looked really painful
https://www.mlb.com/video/senzel-s-diving-snag-in-center-c2523711883

[McC]

(03-20-2019, 03:27 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: This catch looked really painful
https://www.mlb.com/video/senzel-s-diving-snag-in-center-c2523711883

Saw that on replay.  Any part of the arm can be shredded on a catch like that.  

[*psychdoctor*]

I know Votto has started slow this spring but if he struggles this year, Reds are in trouble.

[grampahol]

Kind of like preseason football games eh?

[guyofthetiger]

My latest prediction is the Reds stink again this year. Pitching is a problem.

[grampahol]

(03-23-2019, 11:31 AM)guyofthetiger Wrote: My latest prediction is the Reds stink again this year. Pitching is a problem.

Unless the pitching turns out great in which case nobody will hit over .234 for the season..  Ahhh, the good ol damned if you do, damned if you don't thing, eh? 

[kevin]

Reds have one Spring Training Game left. The Reds did not play well in Spring Training. They got beat a lot. The Pitching got lit up a lot. Votto and Winker stunk it up, as did Barnhart. The worst was injury to Scooter Gennett and out 2 to 3 months. New Reds pitchers Wood and Gray have battled injuries. To top it off Senzel just got injured in the Minors.

The good news is Spring Training doesn't count. Just like Preseason Football.

It looks like Peraza will move from SS to 2nd in place of Gennett to start season.

Reds upsides are adding Puig and Kemp from Dodgers who won National League last 2 years. Very possible 70 RBI's or more from each one. If Suarez, Schebler and Votto also have 70 RBI's or more each, and Reds have 5 guys with 70 RBI's, and get Gennett back, the hitting is there. Pitching is still in question. I think adding some vets starts them off better than they have been. There are no stand out stars here, but Reds had play-off season in 1999 with Neagle and Harnish added, neither of them stars.

So the hope is Reds starters can go deeper into games, eat innings, and not have Reds behind early every single game like last few years. At least give the hitters and bullpen a chance to get a win.

Spring Training was a reality check that Reds may still be awful, but I'm hoping the new manager, coaches, players get off to a good start in Regular Season and team improves and hits it's stride on a play-off run this year. GO REDS 2019.

What could be HUGE would be if either Puig or Kemp come over and give Reds a MVP type season as Dave Parker once did. If one of them had a huge All-Star season, Reds hitting could be tough. If both Puig and Kemp return to All-Star form, this will be fun. If also Roark, Wood and Gray have good seasons and Castillo does also, Play-Offs possible. It would help Reds greatly if Dodger trade turns out like Astros trade of 1972. Dodgers have been winning National League, so I'm still excited about getting all these Dodgers.

I'm also excited about Bell Family input and Brewers pitching coach now with Reds.