Carl Lawson and Pass Rush Win Rate

[*ochocincos*]

(05-08-2020, 01:27 PM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: Carl Lawson is the John Ross of the defense. Ya, I said it.

If you take the GB game outlier out of his career numbers his sack numbers look like this:

2017: 6
2018: 1
2019: 5 (even padded his stats here with 2 sacks in the week 17 CLE game)

0 FF's with minimal tackles, and we know his run defense is sub-par

He has all the physical tools but gets injured and seems to disappear at times.

I guess year 4 is still his 'rookie' season... when we gonna move on from this guy?

They are similar in that they had injuries in college and have continued to have injuries in the NFL.
However, Lawson was a 4th round pick whereas Ross as a 1st round pick because aside from injuries, there were minimal concerns from Ross as a prospect. Lawson had actual concerns aside from injuries, which primarily were not being good enough in the run game and not being bendy enough to consistently win off the edge as a pass rusher.

Lawson, like Ross, is at best the 3rd option at his position right now. Both can be worth keeping around, but it has to be under the following conditions:
- Produces well in this contract year
- The price is right to account for being unreliable

[J24]

(05-08-2020, 01:27 PM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: Carl Lawson is the John Ross of the defense. Ya, I said it.

If you take the GB game outlier out of his career numbers his sack numbers look like this:

2017: 6
2018: 1
2019: 5 (even padded his stats here with 2 sacks in the week 17 CLE game)

0 FF's with minimal tackles, and we know his run defense is sub-par

He has all the physical tools but gets injured and seems to disappear at times.

I guess year 4 is still his 'rookie' season... when we gonna move on from this guy?

1.) The Green Bay game did happen
2.) WTF 6 sacks for a rookie isnt bad at all especially considering he only played 40% of the snaps that season.
3.) injuries happen are we really going to judge a player by that? Seriously it's one of the dumbest things that fans do. 
In the last 8 games Lawson had 4 sacks with 20 QB hits. In the final 4 games of the season he had 14 QB hits one more than what Hubbard had all season. The guy has proven when healthy he is a hell of a pass rusher.

[GreenCornBengal]

(05-08-2020, 01:59 PM)J24 Wrote: 1.) The Green Bay game did happen
2.) WTF 6 sacks for a rookie isnt bad at all especially considering he only played 40% of the snaps that season.
3.) injuries happen are we really going to judge a player by that? Seriously it's one of the dumbest things that fans do. 
In the last 8 games Lawson had 4 sacks with 20 QB hits. In the final 4 games of the season he had 14 QB hits one more than what Hubbard had all season. The guy has proven when healthy he is a hell of a pass rusher.

Ok, put the GB game back in there, he hasn't shown 'it' since his rookie year. He only plays 40% of the snaps because he is a liability in non pass rush situations. Yes, we do judge players by injuries, the best ability in this game is availability.. just ask Tyler Eifert.

Your QB hits and pass rush win rate sound similar to the Ross gets TDs every 10 touches argument. If they are unavailable and unreliable then there are better options out there. 

[J24]

(05-08-2020, 02:04 PM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: Ok, put the GB game back in there, he hasn't shown 'it' since his rookie year. He only plays 40% of the snaps because he is a liability in non pass rush situations. Yes, we do judge players by injuries, the best ability in this game is availability.. just ask Tyler Eifert.

Your QB hits and pass rush win rate sound similar to the Ross gets TDs every 10 touches argument. If they are unavailable and unreliable then there are better options out there. 

It was dumb argument with Eifert and it's a dumb argument with Lawson. Both have proven when on the field their elite players. I would rather have that than some a average Joe who can't do crap on the field.

[fredtoast]

You can't compare Ross to Lawson because despite missing multiple games last eyar Lawson was still among league leaders in some pass rush measures.

-Despite missing 4 games Lawson finished 8th in the league in "QB knockdowns" with 14. He was one of only 5 players to average more than one per game.

-He was also 16th in "QB hits" with 22. His per game average (1.83) was 6th in the league just behind Joey Bosa (1.94)


Pressure that does not result in a sack still effects the efficiency of the opponent's passing game.

[GreenCornBengal]

(05-08-2020, 02:49 PM)fredtoast Wrote: You can't compare Ross to Lawson because despite missing multiple games last eyar Lawson was still among league leaders in some pass rush measures.

-Despite missing 4 games Lawson finished 8th in the league in "QB knockdowns" with 14. He was one of only 5 players to average more than one per game.

-He was also 16th in "QB hits" with 22.  His per game average (1.83) was 6th in the league just behind Joey Bosa (1.94)


Pressure that does not result in a sack still effects the efficiency of the opponent's passing game.

I CAN compare them because they both have great potential but can't stay on the field and are liabilities depending on the situation.

You make some valid points, he is good when he is out there... but he isn't out there often because he is a liability on 1st and 2nd down. He is a great pass rusher, but the rest of his game is so-so

[fredtoast]

(05-08-2020, 02:57 PM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: You make some valid points, he is good when he is out there... but he isn't out there often because he is a liability on 1st and 2nd down. He is a great pass rusher, but the rest of his game is so-so

Damn.  Too bad NFL teams are not allowed to bring in different players on passing downs.  

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

(05-08-2020, 02:57 PM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: I CAN compare them because they both have great potential but can't stay on the field and are liabilities depending on the situation.

You make some valid points, he is good when he is out there... but he isn't out there often because he is a liability on 1st and 2nd down. He is a great pass rusher, but the rest of his game is so-so

Lawson is a very effective situational pass rusher on a modest contract. An elite pass rusher by some metrics. A valuable guy to have. 

The idea that we should "move on" from him is silly. What, you think Brown or Kareem are better? Yeesh. 

Yes, he got hurt. Yes, he is not a 3 down guy. But he is a 3rd down guy, and that is the big one. Plus, if we play more 524 base, his issues vs the run may not be as big a deal as in 434.

He's our best pass rusher and #3 DE. Keeper. And due a raise.

[GreenCornBengal]

(05-08-2020, 03:37 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Damn.  Too bad NFL teams are not allowed to bring in different players on passing downs.  

A situational pass rusher on a defense that is typically behind a few scores and rarely sees 3rd and long pass rush situations.

Not a break out year for Carl Lawson. Sorry Fred.

[Yojimbo]

(05-08-2020, 02:39 PM)J24 Wrote: It was dumb argument with Eifert and it's a dumb argument with Lawson. Both have proven when on the field their elite players. I would rather have that than some a average Joe who can't do crap on the field.

I don’t think those are the only two options. How about an elite player that stays healthy?

[J24]

(05-08-2020, 03:57 PM)Yojimbo Wrote: I don’t think those are the only two options. How about an elite player that stays healthy?

Those are hard to find hell you have to have a Top 10 pick just to find one most of the time.

[fredtoast]

(05-08-2020, 03:44 PM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: A situational pass rusher on a defense that is typically behind a few scores and rarely sees 3rd and long pass rush situations.

I never thought of that.

That makes his 2019 production even MORE impressive.

[GreenCornBengal]

(05-08-2020, 05:04 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I never thought of that.

That makes his 2019 production even MORE impressive.

3 of 5 sacks vs the mighty Cleveland Browns, the ones who just drafted an LT with their rd 1 pick...

Another against Oakland. Color me impressed.

Let me pose this question to you. If we could trade Lawson to another team for a starting quality O-lineman, would you pursue? Lawson's value is limited on this team currently. I say we get what we can for him while he still has that value.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(05-08-2020, 03:43 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: Lawson is a very effective situational pass rusher on a modest contract. An elite pass rusher by some metrics. A valuable guy to have. 

The idea that we should "move on" from him is silly. What, you think Brown or Kareem are better? Yeesh. 

Yes, he got hurt. Yes, he is not a 3 down guy. But he is a 3rd down guy, and that is the big one. Plus, if we play more 524 base, his issues vs the run may not be as big a deal as in 434.

He's our best pass rusher and #3 DE. Keeper. And due a raise.

Completely agree, Lawson needs to stay healthy but he is cheap cause of the injury history and as you say is extremely 
effective when rushing the passer. One of the best in the league when healthy. Very disruptive and is one of the best at 
lowering his shoulder and getting around OT's I have seen.

[GreenCornBengal]

Unpopular opinion here. Carl Lawson getting pressure but not finishing is similar to Ross getting open but not getting thrown to or dropping the pass.

Gotta finish plays. Pressured QBs still complete passes, throw touchdowns and win games. Sacked QBs don't.

[*jason*]

(05-08-2020, 06:18 PM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: Unpopular opinion here. Carl Lawson getting pressure but not finishing is similar to Ross getting open but not getting thrown to or dropping the pass.

Gotta finish plays. Pressured QBs still complete passes, throw touchdowns and win games. Sacked QBs don't.

Yeah not really.

[fredtoast]

(05-08-2020, 06:18 PM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: Carl Lawson getting pressure but not finishing is similar to Ross getting open but not getting thrown to or dropping the pass.

Gotta finish plays. Pressured QBs still complete passes, throw touchdowns and win games. Sacked QBs don't.

Wrong.  When Ross drops a pass we get zero benefit.  When Lawson pressures a QB without sacking him the pressure still effects the QBs efficiency.  Everyone here has seen the numbers for QBs "under pressure".  Even the best see their numbers drop.

So getting pressure that does not result in a sack still has a benefit to the defense.

Of course it is better to finish with a sack, but you can't compare it to a dropped pass which has zero benefit.  A better comparison would be a receiver who took a pass 30 yards but couldn't take it all the way for a TD.  The TD would be better, but there is still a benefit to a 30 yard completion.

[fredtoast]

(05-08-2020, 05:26 PM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: 3 of 5 sacks vs the mighty Cleveland Browns, the ones who just drafted an LT with their rd 1 pick...

Another against Oakland. Color me impressed.

You should be considering Oakland gave up the 8th fewest sacks in the league and the Browns were in the top half (16th)

[Nicomo Cosca]

(05-09-2020, 01:29 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Wrong.  When Ross drops a pass we get zero benefit.  When Lawson pressures a QB without sacking him the pressure still effects the QBs efficiency.  Everyone here has seen the numbers for QBs "under pressure".  Even the best see their numbers drop.

So getting pressure that does not result in a sack still has a benefit to the defense.

Of course it is better to finish with a sack, but you can't compare it to a dropped pass which has zero benefit.  A better comparison would be a receiver who took a pass 30 yards but couldn't take it all the way for a TD.  The TD would be better, but there is still a benefit to a 30 yard completion.

And if pressure causes the QB to throw a pick it can be even better than a sack.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

(05-08-2020, 05:26 PM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: 3 of 5 sacks vs the mighty Cleveland Browns, the ones who just drafted an LT with their rd 1 pick...

Another against Oakland. Color me impressed.

Let me pose this question to you. If we could trade Lawson to another team for a starting quality O-lineman, would you pursue? Lawson's value is limited on this team currently. I say we get what we can for him while he still has that value.

Fair question. But kind of moot.

First, I think it extremely unlikely we get a starting level offensive lineman for Lawson. If we could, it would be an overpaid/low level starter type (Hart, Hopkins, Price), a young guy who showed some potential (Jordan, Johnson), a borderline starter (Su'a-Filo), or just a mediocre guy (Redmond). Point being, we've already got the kind of guy we could get for Lawson. 

Second, we do not have a lot of DE depth. Lawson was our #3, if you do not like him, what is your take on Brown? He has ZERO sacks last year, IIRC. Kareem is a rookie 5th round pick who projects more as a DE/DT type than an EDGE pass-rusher.

I think effective situational pass-rushers are harder to find than mediocre offensive lineman. 

Now, a top 30 G or T or a top 15 C? That matches our scheme? In their prime? I'd make that deal. But the salaries won't match AND it would never be offered. AND we'd have to go find another EDGE.

One of the reasons our pass rush stunk last year was when Lawson got hurt, Dunlap & Hubbard had to play almost every down. It wore them out. If we had better edge depth, I'd be more favorably inclined towards a trade. But we don't.