First Pick - Trending 4/5

[Okeana]

I have been following some trends with top mock experts, statements made recently by Hobson, and other news leaking around the league which leads me to believe the following 4 players are among the leading potential picks if the Bengals stay at 11.

1.  Dwayne Haskins - QB - OSU




The primary team of interest for Haskins up to this point has been the Giants, but recently there has been tons of rumors coming out that they don't care for Haskins as a potential pick at that spot.  Other teams that could move up like the Dolphins or Washington seem very unlikely to do so with their current situations which would mean that chances are he drops to us at 11.  

Since the Bengals seem no longer invested in a long term commitment to Andy Dalton there has been a lot of buzz about the Bengals potentially selecting him in a lot of mocks.  With all that said Hobson said something rather interesting on his article regarding Haskins.  

"if he is there at No. 11 would they go for a guy that basically did it for only one year? They almost always stay away from one-year wonders at every position, never mind first-round QBs. So history would say no, but we’ve seen plenty of history get moved in the first round before so I never say never."  - Hobson

This is a very interesting statement to evaluate for a number of reasons.  First, it could be a smoke screen to lead teams not to trade up for Haskins because they believe he won't fit or Second it could be they have an eye on a quarterback who has more time as a starter either at 11 or the 2nd round.  I tend to take Hobson at face value because I don't really consider him a clever guy and I would say that the Bengals do not intend on drafting a first-round quarterback this year.



2.  Devin Bush - LB - Mich



It's pretty clear that Devin White has solidified himself as a top 10 pick with the Combine and now our biggest need as a team must be filled in a very weak linebacker class.  Luckily Devin Bush is the real deal and pretty much everyone agrees that Bush is easily a top 15 pick with him now creeping up into the top 10.  I have recently seen him mocked by multiple top guys going to the Broncos at 10, but also he's being mocked a lot to our team because of the obvious need.  Rumors are around the League that the Steelers may even trade up to get Bush because they're absolutely in love with him.

Hobson, however, is sending a lot of mixed signals about the pick that has me questioning their mindset on Bush.  Below are a couple of quotes from Hobson's article on Bush.

"You’re right. The Steelers are supposedly drooling over Bush. And I love Bush, too. He’s fast, tough, smart, leads and he’ll hit you. He’s also small and that worries me. I mean, he looks like a safety. And, remember, Shazier has at least two inches on him. But, man, they need him, don’t they?" - Hobson


"Bush is the best fit when it comes to position need, of course, but is he the best 11th pick? Like you, I also think it’s a nice fit, but it does fly in the face of usual top ten principles that a guy shouldn’t be off size or too slow or a projection. In this case, Bush is under six feet and weighs just 234 pounds. Not very big." - Hobson 


I think there is a 50/50 chance that the Bengals take Bush at this point because of the absolute need at the position.  They did themselves no favors in free agency and cutting Burfict going into this draft.  It sounds like me that this pick would be more likely if they traded back several picks and he makes it past Greenbay or Steelers moving up.  I don't want to litter this with my opinion on the players, but I will say I've always viewed bush at the very least as a top 20 player and I think he will be a better pro than college player which says a lot.


3.  Jonah Williams - OT - Bama





Now, this pick comes specifically from something I saw Hobson say in his Q&A that screams Jonah Williams at #11.


"I think they are going to draft an offensive lineman or two even if they don’t take them in the first round. If they deem one not valued enough at No. 11, I would imagine they’ll keep looking. They need another tackle, for sure. And I’d quibble with you. I’d say linebacker is a bigger need than the offensive line." -  Hobson


"I thought when they signed Bobby it was a way of freeing them up in the draft so they wouldn’t have to take a tackle at No. 11 and, to me, anyway, it was a sign they felt there were going to be higher-rated players at other positions. Does it mean now they can take a backer or one of those D-ends? That’s what I was thinking, but I could also see them taking a tackle at No. 11 if the grades merit. Especially if they think he’s versatile." - Hobson


Everything he is saying he leads me to believe that they need an all-around lineman who is " Versatile "  to play at multiple positions to make a first-round selection.  Jonah Williams is the only guy in round 1 that has the draft value and skill set to fill this role.  I'd say that the potential of a first round Offensive lineman this year is highly unlikely.







4.  Christian Wilkins - DT - Clemson (Hobson's Choice)









The defensive line is heavily in play in this draft and while it may not be this exact player a lot of things point to this being the guy.

"I love Wilkins all on my own. How could you not? I guess the knock on him is he does nothing spectacularly. But all I know is he’s an Opening-Day ready defensive tackle that has played a lot of games (50) with a lot of production and played his best on the biggest stage of all for Clemson. And he’s impeccable off the field as the only Clemson scholarship player to graduate in two-and-a-half years. If you can pencil in a guy as a solid 10-year player in the trenches, what are you waiting for? For what it’s worth, Wilkins is Scouts, Inc.’s No, 5 player. So some don’t see it as a reach. But maybe the Bengals agree with you.


 I don’t see Oliver getting to No. 11, either. I’m not sure about the Geno-Donald comps. This kid’s good, but those guys are brute strong and at a maybe 270 pounds, he can’t anchor like them. They’ve both got longer arms than Oliver, but yeah, you’re right. He’s got game-changing speed, enough it looks like he can go the edge, too. That worries you a bit, too. Some are talking about him on the edge, even at linebacker. So what is he? But no question his speed makes him a potential top seven guy." - Hobson


That's right friends you heard it here first.  I will let you read all that and leave you with this.  Hobson is not a free thinker and he doesn't seem like the kinda guy that does a lot of his own research on players;  This leads me to believe that he is hearing this from someone on the scouting department.  I would say that the chances of drafting a DT are very high and Wilkins is probably has a 75% chance to be the pick.




Sleeper Pick : TE Hockenson or Fant

Lots of references to tight end being a possible pick in the first round and they have done it before as an organization so I don't know how much influence Marvin had on those picks.  read the full article here ( https://www.bengals.com/news/hobson-s-choice-emotions-eleven-as-bengaldom-mulls-draft )  

[Goalpost]

My sleeper is Cody Ford. What with signing Miller and Hart it seems improbable. Yet his genetics, 6'4, 345 or whatever don't appear often.

[MentalRage]

This is one of the few years that I have no idea what they will do. My only guess is that Oline will not be in the first round. I'd like to be wrong though. I'd love Jonah Williams. Even if you don't believe that he is a tackle there is a good chance he will be a pro bowl guard.

A guy no one is really talking about that I'd really like is Brian Burns.

[Au165]

Hobson has been historically bad at guessing where we go in the 1st round and I don't expect this year to be different.

[*psychdoctor*]

I can tell this, Taylor will want his first pick to be special because he is now an NFL head coach and his first pick will sort of be his legacy.
With that said, it would surprise me if they go with Haskins or Murray. And I would be okay with this. Not sure if I would be okay with Lock or Jones at 11. I would be sort of pissed.

But, if QBs are gone, then it will come down to these players:
1-White
2-Bush
3-Oliver
4-Wilkins
5-Hochenson
6-Greedy Williams
7-Taylor OT

Greedy Williams (cb) would also piss me off.

I would love Hockenson because he is number 1 at is position and is rare talent.
I would love Oliver because the guy is a stud and I don't care if he played 3T or safety or RB.
I would love Wilkins because he is going to be a beast. Count on it.

I would like White because again, rare talent but I still would question his instincts.
I would like Bush but I question his durability. But I would be happy.
I would like Taylor because you would plug him in at RT for 10 years but RT are nothing to run around naked about.

[NKURyan]

(04-05-2019, 01:44 PM)MentalRage Wrote: This is one of the few years that I have no idea what they will do. 

Agreed. The only thing I know for certain is that they won't take a RB or kicker in the first round... other than that, who knows. Should make it really fun come draft night!

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

Hobspin is always wrong pretty much about the Draft. Lap is the guy leading up to the draft to listen to. That being said i am starting to lean into the Wilkins camp or the Hoch camp. I think both of these players could be bonafied stars at the next level and it is your first round pick from a first year coach. Either of these players would make a statement for the future.

Haskins is only a one year starter in a weak QB class, meh pick. Bush is athletic but not the best tackler so meh pick, Jonah has short arms and i like Taylor better at RT so meh.

Wilkins or Hoch are my bets right now, then we go RT and LB in the 2nd and 3rd.

Time for Nate to make his mock!

[Schmitbuck]

(04-05-2019, 02:35 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Hobspin is always wrong pretty much about the Draft. Lap is the guy leading up to the draft to listen to. That being said i am starting to lean into the Wilkins camp or the Hoch camp. I think both of these players could be bonafied stars at the next level and it is your first round pick from a first year coach. Either of these players would make a statement for the future.

Haskins is only a one year starter in a weak QB class, meh pick. Bush is athletic but not the best tackler so meh pick, Jonah has short arms and i like Taylor better at RT so meh.

Wilkins or Hoch are my bets right now, then we go RT and LB in the 2nd and 3rd.

Time for Nate to make his mock!

I wonder if Lap will get the same access to the team's final big board with the new HC. You'd think eventually the Bengals would wise up and not want someone announcing their pick/back up pick the day before the draft. 

[Hammerstripes]

The other guy that I can't seem to get a good feel for this year is Brian Burns. Some guys have him as a top 3 player and others have him barely scraping the first round. If he truly is a top 3 guy, he'd be hard to pass up.

[Au165]

I'm just not big on all the DT's being thrown around because they are all 3 techniques (Oliver the exception because I think he can play DE in base). The issue there is you just paid Geno a lot of money and your not taking him off the field. You don't want to play Geno or some of the 3 techniques we have discussed out of position making them less effective (huge difference from a NT to 3 technique). That just leaves you with rotating them with the ability to play them both on passing downs, don't confuse in nickle with passing downs. It just seems like at that point you aren't getting value out of your pick.

Now if you want to tell me we get a good 3 technique who fell to the 3rd I am in, but in the 1st I want a player who will get more than 50% of the snaps barring injury.

[impactplaya]

I cant see Hockensen because at least from looking at the Rams offense....TE is more of a role player than focal point of the offense.
Eifert and Uzomah are good enough to hold the position down.
the window is closing on Daltons tenure as QB here. if Haskin falls hes a Bengal. OSU qb playing in Cincy..no better way to build the fan base back up.
If Devon White is there that means Haskins is off the board..
I think its either White or Haskins whoever is left standing

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-05-2019, 04:40 PM)Au165 Wrote: I'm just not big on all the DT's being thrown around because they are all 3 techniques (Oliver the exception because I think he can play DE in base). The issue there is you just paid Geno a lot of money and your not taking him off the field. You don't want to play Geno or some of the 3 techniques we have discussed out of position making them less effective (huge difference from a NT to 3 technique). That just leaves you with rotating them with the ability to play them both on passing downs, don't confuse in nickle with passing downs. It just seems like at that point you aren't getting value out of your pick.

Now if you want to tell me we get a good 3 technique who fell to the 3rd I am in, but in the 1st I want a player who will get more than 50% of the snaps barring injury.

Both Oliver and Wilkins can play DE in the base.

Ferrell the other Clemson D-lineman might also be in play here a guy we don't talk about much who is a fine End.

[Okeana]

(04-05-2019, 05:12 PM)impactplaya Wrote: I cant see Hockensen because at least from looking at the Rams offense....TE is more of a role player than focal point of the offense.
Eifert and Uzomah are good enough to hold the  position down.
the window is closing on Daltons tenure as QB here. if Haskin falls hes a Bengal. OSU qb playing in Cincy..no better way to build the fan base back up.
If Devon White is there that means Haskins is off the board..
I think its either White or Haskins whoever is left standing

Everyone can use an all pro TE especially one who can block.  just ask the Patriots

[Au165]

(04-05-2019, 05:14 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Both Oliver and Wilkins can play DE in the base.

Ferrell the other Clemson D-lineman might also be in play here a guy we don't talk about much who is a fine End.

Wilkins isn’t playing DE in any 4-3 base. Oliver is the only “DT” who I’d be interested in because his versatility, Wilkins is a straight 3 technique. I’m not interested in a DE not named Bosa at 11, we are actually decent there.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-06-2019, 04:07 PM)Au165 Wrote: Wilkins isn’t playing DE in any 4-3 base. Oliver is the only “DT” who I’d be interested in because his versatility, Wilkins is a straight 3 technique. I’m not interested in a DE not named Bosa at 11, we are actually decent there.

Well i guess that is your opinion, Wilkins is even lighter than Oliver and has longer arms, i believe he could play End in a 4-3 base.

[Au165]

(04-06-2019, 05:22 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Well i guess that is your opinion, Wilkins is even lighter than Oliver and has longer arms, i believe he could play End in a 4-3 base.

Wilkins was 315 and Oliver was 287 at the combine. Oliver has actually dropped into coverage in college and moved around on the line. Wilkins has played primarily as a 3 technique his whole career. Oliver ran a short shuttle in 4.19 and Wilkins 4.55. Oliver is a far superior athlete able to line up at almost any position with some flexibility to spot drop, Wilkins is a really good 3 technique.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-06-2019, 05:44 PM)Au165 Wrote: Wilkins was 315 and Oliver was 287 at the combine. Oliver has actually dropped into coverage in college and moved around on the line. Wilkins has played primarily as a 3 technique his whole career. Oliver ran a short shuttle in 4.19 and Wilkins 4.55. Oliver is a far superior athlete able to line up at almost any position with some flexibility to spot drop, Wilkins is a really good 3 technique.

Thanks, i guess seeing Okeana's post and mentioning Wilkins at 270 threw me off.

I like both players, true that Oliver is an athletic freak, just love how Wilkins just plays and does his job so well.

We all know how sometimes these freak athletes don't always translate to the NFL. I find Wilkins to be more of a sure thing than Oliver even if Wilkins cannot line up at End, Wilkins hard working manner should make him a solid player in the NFL for years to come IMO. I do understand the notion of not wanting a DT that won't see as many snaps but DT's get taken every year in the draft even if this is the case.

The trenches is where you win games and it is not like Wilkins is a bad run stopper or anything. I think we need a 3-tech more than a NT cause we have Billings and Glasgow who are both primarily run stoppers.

[Bilbo Saggins]

I don't really like any of those picks at 11. All of them seem a bit overrated.