The Hypothetical Trade AJ Draft

[*SHRacerX*]

I ran it a number of times until Haskins fell to me at #11, but this scenario would play out after offering AJ Green to the NY Jets for Derron Lee and swapping #1 picks. The Jets also owe the Bengals a conditional 2nd round pick next year that could drop as low as a 4th rounder if AJ doesn't meet pretty easy targets for games and performance.

Although it says I took Haskins at #11, assume I took him at #3.

Round 1 Pick 11: Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio St. (B+)

Has at least a year to develop in Taylor's system before being forced to start. Great field vision, incredible arm...our QB for the next decade.

Round 2 Pick 10: Tytus Howard, OT, Alabama State (B-)

A mauler of a RT that needs some coaching to bring out his full potential.

Round 3 Pick 8: Andy Isabella, WR, Massachusetts (B+)

Burner that would move Boyd to the outside as he would take over slot duties. Tough as nails, phone booth quick, and a reliable quick-separation target. Wes Welker, only faster.

Round 4 Pick 8: Dontavius Russell, DT, Auburn (C+)

I like him because of his ability to play NT but can still generate a pass rush. So often, it is one or the other in a 4 man front.

Round 5 Pick 11: David Long Jr, ILB/OLB, West Virginia (A)

Couldn't pass up the idea of him and Lee on the field together in nickel.

Round 6 Pick 10: Kendall Sheffield, CB, Ohio St. (A+)

Super high ceiling that had a run of bad luck at OSU. Will push Dre to start if he falters.

Round 6 Pick 25: John Cominsky, DE, University of Charleston (A+)

Sam Hubbard 2.0. Need another versatile DE with MJs departure.

Round 6 Pick 37 (COMP): Tony Pollard, WR/RB, Memphis (A+)

Swiss Army Knife of a RB. Outstanding receiver out of the backfield. Very skilled route runner. Rex Burkhead 2.0 and has a LOT of tread left on the tires.

Round 6 Pick 38 (COMP): Trevon Wesco, TE, West Virginia (A-)

Outstanding blocking TE that has some ability as a receiver.


Round 6 Pick 40 (COMP): Yosuah Nijman, OG, Virginia Tech (A-)

Big boy with massive frame and outstanding strength at the point of attack. If he can be coached up on pass sets, he could be a diamond in the rough.


Round 7 Pick 9: Preston Williams, WR, Colorado St. (A+)

Had an off-field issue that really caused him to drop....First round talent if he can keep his head together, which is exactly what he did the last season.

So, despite everyone's certainty that this offense will be dead in the water without Green, I would really like this draft, plus the ability to sign some key FAs with the money saved on not having Green and Dalton earn a combined $50 million per year. Oh, and we have an additional second rounder next year, and when Dalton is not re-signed two years later, he will yield a 3rd. Also, if Haskins shows he is ready after this next season, Dalton could be traded to a QB-desperate team.

Thoughts?

[Hoofhearted]

(04-10-2019, 10:11 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: I ran it a number of times until Haskins fell to me at #11, but this scenario would play out after offering AJ Green to the NY Jets for Derron Lee and swapping #1 picks.  The Jets also owe the Bengals a conditional 2nd round pick next year that could drop as low as a 4th rounder if AJ doesn't meet pretty easy targets for games and performance.

Although it says I took Haskins at #11, assume I took him at #3.

Round 1 Pick 11: Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio St. (B+)

Has at least a year to develop in Taylor's system before being forced to start.  Great field vision, incredible arm...our QB for the next decade.

Round 2 Pick 10: Tytus Howard, OT, Alabama State (B-)

A mauler of a RT that needs some coaching to bring out his full potential.

Round 3 Pick 8: Andy Isabella, WR, Massachusetts (B+)

Burner that would move Boyd to the outside as he would take over slot duties.  Tough as nails, phone booth quick, and a reliable quick-separation target.  Wes Welker, only faster.  

Round 4 Pick 8: Dontavius Russell, DT, Auburn (C+)

I like him because of his ability to play NT but can still generate a pass rush.  So often, it is one or the other in a 4 man front.  

Round 5 Pick 11: David Long Jr, ILB/OLB, West Virginia (A)

Couldn't pass up the idea of him and Lee on the field together in nickel.  

Round 6 Pick 10: Kendall Sheffield, CB, Ohio St. (A+)

Super high ceiling that had a run of bad luck at OSU.  Will push Dre to start if he falters.

Round 6 Pick 25: John Cominsky, DE, University of Charleston (A+)

Sam Hubbard 2.0.  Need another versatile DE with MJs departure.  

Round 6 Pick 37 (COMP): Tony Pollard, WR/RB, Memphis (A+)

Swiss Army Knife of a RB.  Outstanding receiver out of the backfield.  Very skilled route runner.  Rex Burkhead 2.0 and has a LOT of tread left on the tires.

Round 6 Pick 38 (COMP): Trevon Wesco, TE, West Virginia (A-)

Outstanding blocking TE that has some ability as a receiver.  


Round 6 Pick 40 (COMP): Yosuah Nijman, OG, Virginia Tech (A-)

Big boy with massive frame and outstanding strength at the point of attack.  If he can be coached up on pass sets, he could be a diamond in the rough.  


Round 7 Pick 9: Preston Williams, WR, Colorado St. (A+)

Had an off-field issue that really caused him to drop....First round talent if he can keep his head together, which is exactly what he did the last season.  

So, despite everyone's certainty that this offense will be dead in the water without Green, I would really like this draft, plus the ability to sign some key FAs with the money saved on not having Green and Dalton earn a combined $50 million per year.  Oh, and we have an additional second rounder next year, and when Dalton is not re-signed two years later, he will yield a 3rd.  Also, if Haskins shows he is ready after this next season, Dalton could be traded to a QB-desperate team.  

Thoughts?

Good draft, but no-way the Jets do that deal. Bengals with highway robbery moving up to top 3 while swapping picks with AJ to boot. AJ would probably net us a second round pick for draft capital, so using that as a gauge, we'd probably have to add another second round pick. And that's not even considering adding Lee in this. 

[*psychdoctor*]

I am not a Howard fan just yet. But I think the Bengals will draft a QB early. Haskins may be their guy. Kiper thinks it is Lock. I think it is Jones.

[*SHRacerX*]

(04-10-2019, 10:24 AM)Hoofhearted Wrote: Good draft, but no-way the Jets do that deal. Bengals with highway robbery moving up to top 3 while swapping picks with AJ to boot. AJ would probably net us a second round pick for draft capital, so using that as a gauge, we'd probably have to add another second round pick. And that's not even considering adding Lee in this. 

Funny.  Almost 90% of the rest of the responses thought the Jets weren't giving enough.  

[Hoofhearted]

(04-10-2019, 05:13 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: Funny.  Almost 90% of the rest of the responses thought the Jets weren't giving enough.  

Only because he has a year left. Plus using the draft calculator it didn’t quite add up. What do you think A.J. would fetch with a trade for a straight up draft pick?

[Whatever]

(04-10-2019, 05:13 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: Funny.  Almost 90% of the rest of the responses thought the Jets weren't giving enough.  

Sorry, but it just isn't even close to being realistic.  #3 is worth 2200 per the trade value chart.  #11 is worth 1250, a 950 point difference.  That's the equivalent of the #17 pick for a WR who's been injured two of the last three years, turns 31 before the season starts, and is in a contract year.  Then on top of that the Jets are throwing in Lee and a conditional 2 that would be worth another 270-580.  If AJ is worth that much(and he isn't), I'd much rather have an extra 1st than moving up to draft a QB in a bad class.  

[*SHRacerX*]

(04-10-2019, 06:23 PM)Hoofhearted Wrote: Only because he has a year left. Plus using the draft calculator it didn’t quite add up. What do you think A.J. would fetch with a trade for a straight up draft pick?

What teams would offer vs. what the Bengals would accept are probably a ways apart.  I would say that the Bengals would only do it for an upper half first rounder and a sweetener, like a 4th rounder.  OBJ got quite a bit from Cleveland, although he is younger than AJ, he has been a pain in the ass.  I do think it was brilliant for the Browns, though, pairing him with his buddy and college teammate Jarvis Landry.

[*SHRacerX*]

(04-10-2019, 09:53 PM)Whatever Wrote: Sorry, but it just isn't even close to being realistic.  #3 is worth 2200 per the trade value chart.  #11 is worth 1250, a 950 point difference.  That's the equivalent of the #17 pick for a WR who's been injured two of the last three years, turns 31 before the season starts, and is in a contract year.  Then on top of that the Jets are throwing in Lee and a conditional 2 that would be worth another 270-580.  If AJ is worth that much(and he isn't), I'd much rather have an extra 1st than moving up to draft a QB in a bad class.  

They are in desperate need of a WR.  AJ is a proven commodity, and a WR selected at #17 is a crapshoot.  They are already paying CJ Moseley a ton of money at their LB spot so it makes Lee expendable.  AJ is absolutely worth the #17 pick by the number system.

You can argue that Haskins isn't the QB that you would want but he is absolutely a higher rated QB coming out of college than Trubisky, who also had just one year of starter experience, and was drafted #2 overall.  

[Hoofhearted]

(04-11-2019, 10:06 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: What teams would offer vs. what the Bengals would accept are probably a ways apart.  I would say that the Bengals would only do it for an upper half first rounder and a sweetener, like a 4th rounder.  OBJ got quite a bit from Cleveland, although he is younger than AJ, he has been a pain in the ass.  I do think it was brilliant for the Browns, though, pairing him with his buddy and college teammate Jarvis Landry.

Yea, he also has years left. In your other thread I mentioned the Amari trade as a pretty decent baseline. He got a first round pick as well, but he's younger and cheaper than AJ. Buy yea, I agree with everything you said here 

[Whatever]

(04-11-2019, 10:10 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: They are in desperate need of a WR.  AJ is a proven commodity, and a WR selected at #17 is a crapshoot.  They are already paying CJ Moseley a ton of money at their LB spot so it makes Lee expendable.  AJ is absolutely worth the #17 pick by the number system.

You can argue that Haskins isn't the QB that you would want but he is absolutely a higher rated QB coming out of college than Trubisky, who also had just one year of starter experience, and was drafted #2 overall.  

No NFL GM is giving that up for a non-QB on the wrong side of 30.  AJ is a great WR when healthy, but he hasn't cracked 1000 yards 2 of the last 3 years and is on the downside of his career.  The Jets aren't close to being a contender, so the deal makes no sense.

Trubisky had a 6.31 grade and Haskins has a 6.20 grade, so no, he's not higher rated.  

[*SHRacerX*]

(04-11-2019, 10:53 AM)Whatever Wrote: No NFL GM is giving that up for a non-QB on the wrong side of 30.  AJ is a great WR when healthy, but he hasn't cracked 1000 yards 2 of the last 3 years and is on the downside of his career.  The Jets aren't close to being a contender, so the deal makes no sense.

Trubisky had a 6.31 grade and Haskins has a 6.20 grade, so no, he's not higher rated.  

You found one site that said that...ask any GM today who has the greatest potential coming out of college.  And the Redskins were rumored to have offered TWO first rounders for Chad Johnson in 2008, and he was 30 at the time.  

I don't agree that the Jets aren't close to being a contender.  Their defense was improved in the offseason and they have their QB.  Add AJ Green and they could be a solid team.  

[Whatever]

(04-11-2019, 02:08 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: You found one site that said that...ask any GM today who has the greatest potential coming out of college.  And the Redskins were rumored to have offered TWO first rounders for Chad Johnson in 2008, and he was 30 at the time.  

I don't agree that the Jets aren't close to being a contender.  Their defense was improved in the offseason and they have their QB.  Add AJ Green and they could be a solid team.  

https://247sports.com/nfl/chicago-bears/Bolt/Mitch-Trubisky-had-highest-QB-grade-in-last-6-years-per-scouts-Chicago-Bears-52789713/

There were multiple actual scouts that had Trubisky higher than Luck.  The grades I posted were their combine grades.  Haskins is not going to be graded higher due to his mobility concerns, which Trubisky didn't have.  Haskins is going to need a strong OL to be productive.  That's not a good fit in the current environment where an average starting T is getting $14-16 mill a year. Do you have any actual sources that rate Haskins higher?

Firstly, it was a 1st and 3rd that could have potentially become a 1 if some insane things happened.  Second, Chad was coming off 3 straight 1300+ yard seasons, 6 straight 1100+ yard seasons and didn't have the injury concerns AJ does.  Plus, Chad only had one 1000 yard season after that, which goes to show that it's dumb to give up a ton for a 30+ WR.

[*bengalfan74*]

I get what you're saying Racer with AJ's age and injury concerns, new HC and all. But man I'd love to see what Dalton and AJ can do with a new coaching staff new playbook/scheme and so on.

I'd love to see AJ retire a Bengal with playoff success.

[Hammerstripes]

(04-10-2019, 06:23 PM)Hoofhearted Wrote: Only because he has a year left. Plus using the draft calculator it didn’t quite add up. What do you think A.J. would fetch with a trade for a straight up draft pick?

What he would get straight up and what we would get in a trade are 2 different things.

What do you think we would have had to trade to get Glenn last year straight up?  4th rounder?  3 rounder?  I doubt anyone gives up a 2nd rounder, but to move up that much, that's probably what it would have taken.

I would be absolutely pissed if they traded up for Haskins and got rid of AJ in the process.  There's no need to get up to #3.  Maybe #6 to get in front of the Jags, but there's a very good chance he's on the board at #11.  And I would still pass.

[*SHRacerX*]

(04-11-2019, 03:18 PM)Whatever Wrote: https://247sports.com/nfl/chicago-bears/Bolt/Mitch-Trubisky-had-highest-QB-grade-in-last-6-years-per-scouts-Chicago-Bears-52789713/

There were multiple actual scouts that had Trubisky higher than Luck.  The grades I posted were their combine grades.  Haskins is not going to be graded higher due to his mobility concerns, which Trubisky didn't have.  Haskins is going to need a strong OL to be productive.  That's not a good fit in the current environment where an average starting T is getting $14-16 mill a year. Do you have any actual sources that rate Haskins higher?

Firstly, it was a 1st and 3rd that could have potentially become a 1 if some insane things happened.  Second, Chad was coming off 3 straight 1300+ yard seasons, 6 straight 1100+ yard seasons and didn't have the injury concerns AJ does.  Plus, Chad only had one 1000 yard season after that, which goes to show that it's dumb to give up a ton for a 30+ WR.

It is still what you said "No NFL GM would do", and as far as rankings of Haskins vs. Trubisky, here ya go:

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/nfl-draft-2019-comprehensive-primer-on-dwayne-haskins-drew-lock-and-the-rest-of-the-quarterback-class/

"Haskins is an upgraded, more advanced version of Mitchell Trubisky."

[Whatever]

(04-12-2019, 06:45 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: It is still what you said "No NFL GM would do", and as far as rankings of Haskins vs. Trubisky, here ya go:

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/nfl-draft-2019-comprehensive-primer-on-dwayne-haskins-drew-lock-and-the-rest-of-the-quarterback-class/

"Haskins is an upgraded, more advanced version of Mitchell Trubisky."

It's '19, not '08.  This is like proposing trading Mixon for multiple 1st's plus other picks and bringing up the Herschel Walker trade when people say it won't happen.  Antonio Brown just netted a 3rd and 5th.  Demaryous Thomas netted a 4th.  Nobody is giving up the equivalent of a mid 1st, a second, and a player in the current environment for AJ when you look at what similar players have been moved for within the last year.

Well, it's from back in January before people really started going over them with a fine tooth comb, but at least it's something.

[*SHRacerX*]

(04-12-2019, 09:44 AM)Whatever Wrote: It's '19, not '08.  This is like proposing trading Mixon for multiple 1st's plus other picks and bringing up the Herschel Walker trade when people say it won't happen.  Antonio Brown just netted a 3rd and 5th.  Demaryous Thomas netted a 4th.  Nobody is giving up the equivalent of a mid 1st, a second, and a player in the current environment for AJ when you look at what similar players have been moved for within the last year.

Well, it's from back in January before people really started going over them with a fine tooth comb, but at least it's something.

And here is what the Giants got in return for OBJ: 



The Giants are sending Beckham, their talented, but often controversial receiver, to the Browns in exchange for safety Jabrill Peppers, plus the Browns’ first-round pick (No. 17 overall) and the second of their two third-round picks (No. 96).



Someone pointed out earlier that the difference between pick #3 and pick #11 by the points is roughly equivalent to the #17 overall pick.  So, in my scenario, the Bengals trade AJ for Derron Lee, the Bengals and Jets swap first rounders, and the Bengals get a conditional pick in 2020 that could be as high as a 2nd rounder and as low as a 4th.  To summarize, the Bengals would essentially be sending AJ to the Jets for the #17 overall pick and Derron Lee, who the Jets are looking to move since they spent big bucks on Mosely.  The Bengals would also receive a conditional 2020 pick.  I don't think that is asking too much for a proven player like AJ Green, and it would allow the Bengals to draft Haskins at #3 overall.  



The big win here for the Bengals is the cap space savings in a couple years not having Green and Dalton's contract on their books....and maybe they could trade Dalton after one year of Haskins backing him up or hold on to him and let him leave and get a compensatory 3rd rounder when he signs elsewhere.


I am as big a Dalton fan as any, but I hear so many people talk about his limitations and his ceiling.  Haskins could be a franchise QB for the next decade and with a new coaching staff and lots of cap space, this team could compete in one year.  I am not so sure if we will see different results from our recent past if they sign Dalton and Green.  

[Whatever]

(04-12-2019, 11:40 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: And here is what the Giants got in return for OBJ: 



The Giants are sending Beckham, their talented, but often controversial receiver, to the Browns in exchange for safety Jabrill Peppers, plus the Browns’ first-round pick (No. 17 overall) and the second of their two third-round picks (No. 96).



Someone pointed out earlier that the difference between pick #3 and pick #11 by the points is roughly equivalent to the #17 overall pick.  So, in my scenario, the Bengals trade AJ for Derron Lee, the Bengals and Jets swap first rounders, and the Bengals get a conditional pick in 2020 that could be as high as a 2nd rounder and as low as a 4th.  To summarize, the Bengals would essentially be sending AJ to the Jets for the #17 overall pick and Derron Lee, who the Jets are looking to move since they spent big bucks on Mosely.  The Bengals would also receive a conditional 2020 pick.  I don't think that is asking too much for a proven player like AJ Green, and it would allow the Bengals to draft Haskins at #3 overall.  



The big win here for the Bengals is the cap space savings in a couple years not having Green and Dalton's contract on their books....and maybe they could trade Dalton after one year of Haskins backing him up or hold on to him and let him leave and get a compensatory 3rd rounder when he signs elsewhere.


I am as big a Dalton fan as any, but I hear so many people talk about his limitations and his ceiling.  Haskins could be a franchise QB for the next decade and with a new coaching staff and lots of cap space, this team could compete in one year.  I am not so sure if we will see different results from our recent past if they sign Dalton and Green.  

OBJ is 26 and is the prime of his career.  AJ is on the downside of his career and has injury concerns.  The reason for the Brown and Thomas comparison was that they are similar players around the same age. 

 We honestly have no idea what Dalton will do in Taylor's offense.  Drafting a QB in the 1st pretty much says that no matter how well he plays, he's gone in 2 years.  Trading AJ and drafting a QB also immediately means rebuild while the Bengals are trying to sell the fans on a young, unproven coach.  Plus, the next 2 years appear to be better QB classes.

[*SHRacerX*]

(04-12-2019, 01:58 PM)Whatever Wrote: OBJ is 26 and is the prime of his career.  AJ is on the downside of his career and has injury concerns.  The reason for the Brown and Thomas comparison was that they are similar players around the same age. 

 We honestly have no idea what Dalton will do in Taylor's offense.  Drafting a QB in the 1st pretty much says that no matter how well he plays, he's gone in 2 years.  Trading AJ and drafting a QB also immediately means rebuild while the Bengals are trying to sell the fans on a young, unproven coach.  Plus, the next 2 years appear to be better QB classes.

Agreed about OBJ’s age vs. Green, but he is also a head case and has been a headache for his team. He also got a LOTmore in return than what I was proposing.

It isn’t just signaling a rebuild. It would be improving the team with a tremendous difference in cap space and, possibly, QB talent. And if Dalton has an MVP-type season, you could reap those rewards and just let Haskins learn behind him another year.

Look at what KC did with drafting Mahommes when they had an established QB already.

I just can’t help but think the Bengals would be more competitive with this trade and I think they could become very competitive in just one year. Move Boyd outside, draft a guy like Isabella too play slot and next year, go after some key FA and see what we can do.