CJD Dueling Mock Drafts

[CJD]

So I did two mock drafts with the Draft Network mock draft system. It actually works pretty well. There weren't too many "what the hell is this player still doing available" moments like most mock draft simulators have and most of my pick selections made a lot of sense from what we understand about the value of these players (although there are always risers and fallers on draft day that no big board predicts).

The first mock draft I did, I made it a principle that, in the first 5 rounds, I would not draft a player that was more than a 3 or 4 pick "reach" when it was my turn to select. The draft turned out like this:

Round 1, Pick 11. Dwayne Haskins QB, Ohio State
Round 2, Pick 42. Dexter Lawrence IDL, Clemson
Round 3, Pick 72. Yodny Cajuste OT, West Virginia
Round 4, Pick 110. Riley Ridley WR, Georgia
Round 5, Pick 149. Germaine Pratt LB, NC State
Round 6, Pick 183. Marvell Tell S, USC
Round 6, Pick 198. Cameron Smith LB, USC
Round 6, Pick 210. Ryquell Armstead RB, Temple
Round 6, Pick 211. Hjalte Froholdt IOL, Arkansas
Round 6, Pick 213. Donnie Lewis Jr CB, Tulane
Round 7, Pick 223. Andrew Beck TE, Texas
https://thedraftnetwork.com/mockDraft/sT5cNaIQE6

I was...pretty happy with the results. My choices at #11 were basically Haskins or Brian Burns. The top 10 was a nightmare for anyone who didn't want a QB, basically (Bosa, Allen, Williams, Gary, Sweat, Murray, Taylor, Hockenson, Oliver, White in that order).

Devin Bush was rated the 16th player and therefore I couldn't select him with my rule of +4 slots, so I went with Haskins and figured I'd take a LB in the 2nd or 3rd round when there is one of better value.

As the rounds went by, I got some quality players. A big DT to clog my defensive line, a nice tough OT to challenge at RT, a good, long WR with great route running. But the Linebackers just didn't fall into place.

I ended up breaking my own rule in the 5th round because, my God, there are not a lot of good Linebackers in this draft. I ended up folding and drafting Germaine Pratt, who was graded as the 165th best player, with the 149th pick in the draft. I kept waiting for a value LB to show up at one of my picks, but I thought they must have just kept being selected right before my pick (I had it set on fast mode to save time, so I wasn't watching every single pick as it occurred.)

After the draft, I went back and looked at the draft board. And that's when I realized just how bereft this draft is of quality talent at LB.
According to their big board, there are two first round linebackers, 1 second round linebacker (who was selected in the first round, 35 selections ahead of his projected value, Mack Wilson) and 1 third round linebacker. The 4th round is where they really start to pick up but,  in this particular mock draft, they had been picked up a round or two ahead of time (presumably because the teams' needs were just that great at LB).

This was rather shocking to me, as I had never really explored the depth of the LB class up until now. But it's just not there. If you're looking for a day 1 starter at LB, you basically have three choices: White, Bush and Wilson.

So I went back into the second draft and tried to consider need more carefully when I made my selections. Here is the result.

Round 1, Pick 11. Devin Bush Jr. LB, Michigan
Round 2, Pick 42. Greg Little OT, Mississippi
Round 3, Pick 72. Jace Sternberger TE, Texas A&M
Round 4, Pick 110. Mecole Hardman WR, Georgia
Round 5, Pick 149. Jarrett Stidham QB, Auburn
Round 6, Pick 183. Chris Slayton IDL, Syracuse
Round 6, Pick 198. Ka'dar Hollman CB, Toledo
Round 6, Pick 210. Evan Worthington S, Colorado
Round 6, Pick 211. Ty Summers LB, TCU
Round 6, Pick 213. Mike Weber RB, Ohio State
Round 7, Pick 223. Derwin Gray OT, Maryland
https://thedraftnetwork.com/mockdraft/I325y2QWrN

In this draft, I was able to get my day 1 starter at LB, my day 1 starter at RT and I was also able to nab two really nice weapons for Dalton in Hardman and Sternberger. I wasn't able to find my Dalton replacement, like I did in the first draft, but I got a back up with some potential in Stidham. He may not end up being worth the effort, but in the 5th round, there weren't significant upgrades at any position that I could see, so I went with the project. Overall, I was much happier with the results of this draft than I was the first one, for the simple reason that I felt like I got better players at positions of need and I was able to fill more holes than I did in the first draft.

So what do you think? After taking the time to do these two mock drafts, I realized that LB in the first round really should be our decision, even if it isn't the best value, simply because of how desperately we need a starting LB and the fact that this draft is bare bones at LB. You can, obviously, completely skip LB this year and draft for value and hope our guys develop, but that sounds like a great way to have the 32nd defense for a 2nd year in a row. And, if we do truly believe Dalton is capable of winning games for us, then we need to improve this team now, with Dalton aging and his (and Green's) contract coming due.

[sandwedge]

(04-23-2019, 08:49 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: So I did two mock drafts with the Draft Network mock draft system. It actually works pretty well. There weren't too many "what the hell is this player still doing available" moments like most mock draft simulators have and most of my pick selections made a lot of sense from what we understand about the value of these players (although there are always risers and fallers on draft day that no big board predicts).

The first mock draft I did, I made it a principle that, in the first 5 rounds, I would not draft a player that was more than a 3 or 4 pick "reach" when it was my turn to select. The draft turned out like this:

Round 1, Pick 11. Dwayne Haskins QB, Ohio State
Round 2, Pick 42. Dexter Lawrence IDL, Clemson
Round 3, Pick 72. Yodny Cajuste OT, West Virginia
Round 4, Pick 110. Riley Ridley WR, Georgia
Round 5, Pick 149. Germaine Pratt LB, NC State
Round 6, Pick 183. Marvell Tell S, USC
Round 6, Pick 198. Cameron Smith LB, USC
Round 6, Pick 210. Ryquell Armstead RB, Temple
Round 6, Pick 211. Hjalte Froholdt IOL, Arkansas
Round 6, Pick 213. Donnie Lewis Jr CB, Tulane
Round 7, Pick 223. Andrew Beck TE, Texas
https://thedraftnetwork.com/mockDraft/sT5cNaIQE6

I was...pretty happy with the results. My choices at #11 were basically Haskins or Brian Burns. The top 10 was a nightmare for anyone who didn't want a QB, basically (Bosa, Allen, Williams, Gary, Sweat, Murray, Taylor, Hockenson, Oliver, White in that order).

Devin Bush was rated the 16th player and therefore I couldn't select him with my rule of +4 slots, so I went with Haskins and figured I'd take a LB in the 2nd or 3rd round when there is one of better value.

As the rounds went by, I got some quality players. A big DT to clog my defensive line, a nice tough OT to challenge at RT, a good, long WR with great route running. But the Linebackers just didn't fall into place.

I ended up breaking my own rule in the 5th round because, my God, there are not a lot of good Linebackers in this draft. I ended up folding and drafting Germaine Pratt, who was graded as the 165th best player, with the 149th pick in the draft. I kept waiting for a value LB to show up at one of my picks, but I thought they must have just kept being selected right before my pick (I had it set on fast mode to save time, so I wasn't watching every single pick as it occurred.)

After the draft, I went back and looked at the draft board. And that's when I realized just how bereft this draft is of quality talent at LB.
According to their big board, there are two first round linebackers, 1 second round linebacker (who was selected in the first round, 35 selections ahead of his projected value, Mack Wilson) and 1 third round linebacker. The 4th round is where they really start to pick up but,  in this particular mock draft, they had been picked up a round or two ahead of time (presumably because the teams' needs were just that great at LB).

This was rather shocking to me, as I had never really explored the depth of the LB class up until now. But it's just not there. If you're looking for a day 1 starter at LB, you basically have three choices: White, Bush and Wilson.

So I went back into the second draft and tried to consider need more carefully when I made my selections. Here is the result.

Round 1, Pick 11. Devin Bush Jr. LB, Michigan
Round 2, Pick 42. Greg Little OT, Mississippi
Round 3, Pick 72. Jace Sternberger TE, Texas A&M
Round 4, Pick 110. Mecole Hardman WR, Georgia
Round 5, Pick 149. Jarrett Stidham QB, Auburn
Round 6, Pick 183. Chris Slayton IDL, Syracuse
Round 6, Pick 198. Ka'dar Hollman CB, Toledo
Round 6, Pick 210. Evan Worthington S, Colorado
Round 6, Pick 211. Ty Summers LB, TCU
Round 6, Pick 213. Mike Weber RB, Ohio State
Round 7, Pick 223. Derwin Gray OT, Maryland
https://thedraftnetwork.com/mockdraft/I325y2QWrN

In this draft, I was able to get my day 1 starter at LB, my day 1 starter at RT and I was also able to nab two really nice weapons for Dalton in Hardman and Sternberger. I wasn't able to find my Dalton replacement, like I did in the first draft, but I got a back up with some potential in Stidham. He may not end up being worth the effort, but in the 5th round, there weren't significant upgrades at any position that I could see, so I went with the project. Overall, I was much happier with the results of this draft than I was the first one, for the simple reason that I felt like I got better players at positions of need and I was able to fill more holes than I did in the first draft.

So what do you think? After taking the time to do these two mock drafts, I realized that LB in the first round really should be our decision, even if it isn't the best value, simply because of how desperately we need a starting LB and the fact that this draft is bare bones at LB. You can, obviously, completely skip LB this year and draft for value and hope our guys develop, but that sounds like a great way to have the 32nd defense for a 2nd year in a row. And, if we do truly believe Dalton is capable of winning games for us, then we need to improve this team now, with Dalton aging and his (and Green's) contract coming due.

I agree, I like the 2nd draft better. By a landslide!! I get the premise you draft the highest ranked player on your board, but personally I think sometimes you have to fill immediate needs, like this year. We need a good LB and if you have to take a player that is 3rd or 4th on your board that fills a need, I don't think you can pass him up. 

[CJD]

(04-23-2019, 10:56 AM)sandwedge Wrote: I agree, I like the 2nd draft better. By a landslide!! I get the premise you draft the highest ranked player on your board, but personally I think sometimes you have to fill immediate needs, like this year. We need a good LB and if you have to take a player that is 3rd or 4th on your board that fills a need, I don't think you can pass him up. 

Yea, I mean in the first one I didn't ignore need. I just chose the biggest need among players that were "worth the pick."

I think the adage of never reaching for need is overplayed and this exercise really cemented that opinion for me. Draft for value, but with need in mind. Even in the first draft, I could have drafted Greg Little in the 2nd, but he was outside of my 4 pick range, so I went with a DT. Still a need, but not as great a need as OT was. 

In my ideal scenario, White would fall to us at 11 and we can take him, but even if he doesn't (which it seems like he may not, if mock drafts are to be believed), I still think Bush is our best choice, unless a top player like Oliver or maybe Hockenson drops.

[SunsetBengal]

I would be happier with the 2nd one. I'm not a big fan of Devin Bush at #11, but you addressed our two biggest holes at the top, and were able to get good value down the line. Nice work.

[Goalpost]

So I like the 2nd one also. Where I might differ is taking Little 2nd. Not that I disagree with it, but what the other options were at DE, DT, QB, WR, TE, and maybe S.

I figure the OTs available at 42 were Little, McGary, Howard, Cajuste, Scharping, Edoga, Evans, and Deiter who is more of a swing player. I think one of these will be available at 72, which would allow for another pick to happen at 42. I don't mind the Little pick, but I still wonder if there will be good value at 72 with OT, and we could go another direction at pick 42. Just a thought...Either way the draft sets up nice taking a LB first.

[CJD]

(04-23-2019, 12:34 PM)Goalpost Wrote: So I like the 2nd one also.  Where I might differ is taking Little 2nd.  Not that I disagree with it, but what the other options were at DE, DT, QB, WR, TE, and maybe S.

I figure the OTs available at 42 were Little, McGary, Howard, Cajuste, Scharping, Edoga, Evans, and Deiter who is more of a swing player.  I think one of these will be available at 72, which would allow for another pick to happen at 42.  I don't mind the Little pick, but I still wonder if there will be good value at 72 with OT, and we could go another direction at pick 42.  Just a thought...Either way the draft sets up nice taking a LB first.

Yea, Cajuste was available in the 3rd round in that particular mock draft.

Some top players, other than OTs like McGary and Howard, that went between 42 and 72 were the likes of Jeffery Simmons, Dexter Lawrence, Noah Fant, Irv Smith Jr, Juan Thornhill and Chris Lindstrom (The link below the mock draft should show the entire 7 rounds).

So you could trade Little and Sternberger for one of those players and Cajuste. Also, if I didn't go Little, then maybe one of the others like McGary or Howard would be available, because the teams that drafted those players between 42 and 72 may take Little over them.

There's some flexibility there. I personally really like Little but I know he has some effort and footwork concerns as well, so one of the other players may be a safer pick.

Overall, if the coaches like a different OT more in that slot, they have the pick of the litter in many regards. I'd be happy with just about any of them. 

[*psychdoctor*]

I think I am leaning the first draft albeit I really like Stidham. I think Pratt will be a fine backer and I really like Lawrence. I think Haskins has the tools but needs another year. Ridely and Tell will be starters eventually. It was close though. I am not a fan of Bush at 11. I know he is rated high but I am a Big (Ten) fan and I just don't see it.