Baseball, luck, and run differential

[fredtoast]

The reason they play 162 games in a baseball season is because luck plays a huge roll in who wins. Over a long season the best teams have the best records, but when you are dealing with a sport where the best hitters fail 70% of the time luck plays a big roll in who gets the important hit at the important time.

Studies show that teams that make the playoffs in a year when they win a high percentage of one/two run games are probably not as good as their record, and teams that have poor records because they lose a bunch of one/two run games are better than their record.

Just last week (May 15) I saw where the Reds had the worst record in the league in one run games (6-13) and were just as bad in 2 run games (3-6). Over the course of the season our luck will change.

Run scoring differential is a good way to judge how good a team is. Currently the Reds are at +25. The only three teams with a better run differential in the National league are the three division leaders, and the Phillies are just one run better than the Reds at +26. In all of Major League Baseball the Rockies are the only other team with a positive run differential and a losing record, but they have only outscored their opponents by 2 runs.

The Reds may not make the playoffs this year, but they are almost certain to finish at least .500 or better if they keep producing like they have so far.

[*psychdoctor*]

I think since the 1-8 start, the Reds have been playing above .500 but should have won about 5-6 games more. I believe they are 2nd in league in Pitching and homeruns allowed. Homeruns allowed is significant given their home field. It is remarkable really. Votto is in a funk but they are starting to hit. I hope Gennett sparks everything.

They are playing better than I expected and Castillo and Mahle have done well. All this without Alex Wood. Iggy has to find his groove. Don't know what's wrong with the closer.

[grampahol]

Votto seems to be picking it up while Winker is stuck in a real funk and should probably go spend a week or so in Louisville to get his mojo back. Barnhart is starting to hit, but Senzel seems to be trying to figure out big league pitching looking at a lot of strike 3s.. 
Still, this team is an exciting team to watch even when losing which is a whole lot better than how predictable they were just a season ago when pitching absolutely stank, but they had a pretty potent lineup. This year is the exact opposite. If hitting picks up and the pitching holds up this will be a very good season.. A lot hinges on how they fare after the ASG..