Bengals rush offense under Marvin Lewis

[MasonDT70]

(06-19-2019, 01:49 PM)fredtoast Wrote: FootballOutsiders has a formula where the O-line is given extra blame for all runs of zero or negative yards while the RBs get most of the credit for yards gained more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage.

It is called "Adjusted Line Yards" . and you would be surprised how well our O-line ranked using this formula.

If I'm reading the chart correctly, we had a below average run blocking line but far from the worst. 22nd in adjusted line yards. What surprises me most is that we had a good power percentage tied at 7th.

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[fredtoast]

(06-19-2019, 09:32 PM)MasonDT70 Wrote: If I'm reading the chart correctly, we had a below average run blocking line but far from the worst. 22nd in adjusted line yards. What surprises me most is that we had a good power percentage tied at 7th.

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I was not clear.  I meant that the Bengals O-line has been ranked fairly high in that stat over the years, not just 2018. 

[grampahol]

(06-20-2019, 10:22 AM)fredtoast Wrote: I was not clear.  I meant that the Bengals O-line has been ranked fairly high in that stat over the years, not just 2018. 

You wouldn't be suggesting Bengals fans are slightly overly critical about certain aspects of the team now would you? 

[fredtoast]

(06-19-2019, 09:26 PM)Joelist Wrote: If our line ranked well in that area then the formula has problems because that is the exact area we stunk royally at. It's been years since we could trust our line to do the blocking job to let us pick up 3rd and 3 or so consistently for the first down. In fact they haven't even been trustworthy at 3rd and 2 or 3rd and 1. It may seem like an isolated stat but it is a critical indicator of your rush offense - if you can reliably pickup 3rd and 1-3 on the ground the world opens up for your offense in terms of ability to close out games and defenses not being able to sell out to either pass or run. 

Last year Bengals converted the first down 75% of the time when they ran the ball on 3rd or 4th with 2 or fewer yards to go.  That ranked 9th in the league.  League average was 70.5%

Teams almost never run the ball on 3rd or 4th and 3.  All teams combined only did it 85 times last year, and a large portion of those were QB scrambles.

[NKURyan]

(06-20-2019, 10:37 AM)fredtoast: Wrote: Teams almost never run the ball on 3rd or 4th and 3.  All teams combined only did it 85 times last year, and a large portion of those were QB scrambles.

Drives me crazy! It's a pet peeve of mine when it's 3rd and 3 and the team goes out there in a spread formation. Bonus points in frustration if it's at the goal line...

[fredtoast]

(06-20-2019, 10:22 AM)fredtoast Wrote: I was not clear.  I meant that the Bengals O-line has been ranked fairly high in that stat over the years, not just 2018. 

Some more "too much free time" stats.

Over Marvin's 16 year tenure the Bengals average ranking in yards per carry is 21.6* and they finished in the top half of the league only 5 times.  Over that same period their average ranking in "adjusted line yards" is 16.1 and they finished in the top half of the league 8 times including #1 in 2015.  


The '15 season is a good example of how the stat works.  That year we ranked 23rd in the league in actual average per carry, but were dead last in runs over 40 yards (0) and 31st in runs over 20 yards (4).  While we were not breaking off long runs we were great at grinding out yards and ranked 3rd in lowest percentage of runs stuffed for no gain.  That is how our O-line ended up ranked #1 in "adjusted line yards".

Much of Marvin's tenure featured backs like Benson and Green-Ellis who did not break off a lot of long runs.  There have only been three seasons when our rank in "average per carry" was higher than our "adjusted line average".



* The Bengals actual rank for that total period is 29th, but I have to use "average ranking" because I do not have access to the actual ranking in "adjusted line yards" for that total period.   

[sonofstat]

(06-14-2019, 05:50 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Many people think of the Bengals as being a passing team under Marvin Lewis mainly because after Kitna started in '03 he had 2 Pro Bowl caliber QBs starting for the next 15 years.  But from '03-'18 the Bengals actually ranked higher in rush attempts (13th) than they did in pass attempts (18th).  However part of that is explained by the Bengals success.  Teams that win more generally have the lead more and run the ball more.  Of the 16 teams in the top half of the league in rush attempts since '03 only 4 (Buff, NYJ, Jax, Hou) have a losing record.  Unfortunately since '03 the Bengals running game ranks 29th in average yards per carry.  Again this may be PARTLY explained by the fact that the Bengals won a lot of games and worked on running out the clock with a lead.  The top three teams in winning percentage since '03 (NE, Pitt, Ind) all rank 27th or lower in yards per carry, but those teams all won A LOT more games than the Bengals (at least 33 more).

Since '03 five different Bengal RBs have had 1,000 yd seasons.  Rudi Johnson is the only one to gain more than 1,300 in a season and he did it three straight years ('04-'06).  Rudi also had the most rushing tds in a season (12), and he also did that three straight years.  Cedric Benson had the highest yards per game average (96.2 in '09).  Jeremy Hill is the only RB to average over 5 yards per carry in a 1,00 yd season (5.1 in '14) and Mixon is the only one to catch more than 28 passes in a 1,000 yd season (43 in '18).  Biggest surprise for me is that Benson never scored more than 7 tds in any of his three 1,000 yd seasons. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is the only one of these RBs to have a 1,000 season with another NFL team (NE '10).

As a team under Lewis the Bengals have finished in the top ten in rushing yards twice.  9th in '09 and 6th in '14. They finished in the bottom half of the league 10 times with a low of 31st in '17. In yards per carry the Bengals have ranked in the top 10 twice .  8th last year and 9th in '05, but they finished 20th or lower 11 of 16 years.

1. Good to remind people how much production we got out of Rudi Johnson in that 4 year period from 2003.   

OK, he was not flashy and did'nt have a lot of wiggle to him, but for a team known for Palmer, Chad, TJ , Henry he really helped lay a foundation.  Rudi running north - south behind Bobbie Williams and Willie Anderson   ...that's some hard nosed football right there!

2. Looking back , the way Jeremy Hill and his career panned out was such a disappointment 

The 2nd half of his rookie year was unbelievable and as hyped as people are now about Mixon i was at least as hyped for Hill's 2nd year - rarely have i seen a guy go from looking so decisive and threatening to so tentative and plodding.  If he had a major knee/leg break or something that would have explained it but he just become 'another guy' so,so  quickly.

[fredtoast]

(06-21-2019, 06:42 AM)sonofstat Wrote: 2. Looking back , the way Jeremy Hill and his career panned out was such a disappointment 

The 2nd half of his rookie year was unbelievable and as hyped as people are now about Mixon i was at least as hyped for Hill's 2nd year - rarely have i seen a guy go from looking so decisive and threatening to so tentative and plodding.  If he had a major knee/leg break or something that would have explained it but he just become 'another guy' so,so  quickly.

This X 1000

I have never seen such a dramatic drop in production from anyone that young and healthy.

In his rookie season Hill look just as promising as Mixon does now.  We ALL loved him.

[grampahol]

The funny thing is over the years there have been countless stories of one trick pony players in both football and baseball with those single season greatness only to be followed with season after season of brilliant nothingness.. and we get sucked into it every time.. I have a feeling that's never gonna change.. 

[Joelist]

Where can we find a breakout of our run/pass selection based on down and distance?

[fredtoast]

(06-22-2019, 02:35 PM)Joelist Wrote: Where can we find a breakout of our run/pass selection based on down and distance?

profootballreference.com 

select "play index" from menu

then "game play finder"

You can find it for all teams or just filter for the Bengals.

[fredtoast]

(06-21-2019, 11:00 AM)grampahol Wrote: The funny thing is over the years there have been countless stories of one trick pony players in both football and baseball with those single season greatness only to be followed with season after season of brilliant nothingness.. and we get sucked into it every time.. I have a feeling that's never gonna change.. 

No stats to back this up, but it seems to happen more often in baseball.

In football it is either injury related, or sometimes one player (often a QB or a #2 WR) will look great because he has some great teammates.

[Bengalitis]

(06-15-2019, 05:02 PM)BengalChris Wrote: I remember when we had a fullback.

We haven't had a FULLBACK since Lorenzo Neal.

[BengalChris]

(06-22-2019, 07:15 PM)Bengalitis Wrote: We haven't had a FULLBACK since Lorenzo Neal.

Well, you are talking about a top flight FB. We have had a number of FBs since then. The position seems to have gone the way of the buggy whip almost.

[HarleyDog]

(06-21-2019, 08:37 AM)fredtoast Wrote: This X 1000

I have never seen such a dramatic drop in production from anyone that young and healthy.

In his rookie season Hill look just as promising as Mixon does now.  We ALL loved him.

At some point instead of hitting the hole, he started juking in the backfield. Not sure what caused him to do this other than trying to showboat.

[SunsetBengal]

(06-23-2019, 01:50 PM)HarleyDog Wrote: At some point instead of hitting the hole, he started juking in the backfield. Not sure what caused him to do this other than trying to showboat.

That is very puzzling, as Hill and Gio both started out as very decisive runners, hit the holes quickly, and make a juke or move at the second level to break off a medium gainer. Then, all of a sudden, they turn to dancing in the backfield?  I have difficulty in believing that they both went away from what made them very successful backs, completely of their own volition.  I'm going to suggest that Paul Alexander had a hand in things, as he was the Rushing Game Coordinator.

My theory is that PA would ask them to hesitate, and allow the hole to develop, before making a cut and hitting it;  Rather than just jetting to the called hole for the play. Had to be a part of PA's "catch and redirect" style of run blocking.  As you saw last year, Mixon had no problem hitting holes with authority last season.  Heck, even Gio had a couple of nice, medium gainers that we hadn't seen in a while.

In today's NFL, there's just no room for "picking a hole", you have to hit it and take what's there, unless they're running some version of a stretch play and the back sees an opportunity to cut up before reaching the edge.

[HarleyDog]

(06-23-2019, 02:42 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: That is very puzzling, as Hill and Gio both started out as very decisive runners, hit the holes quickly, and make a juke or move at the second level to break off a medium gainer. Then, all of a sudden, they turn to dancing in the backfield?  I have difficulty in believing that they both went away from what made them very successful backs, completely of their own volition.  I'm going to suggest that Paul Alexander had a hand in things, as he was the Rushing Game Coordinator.

My theory is that PA would ask them to hesitate, and allow the hole to develop, before making a cut and hitting it;  Rather than just jetting to the called hole for the play. Had to be a part of PA's "catch and redirect" style of run blocking.  As you saw last year, Mixon had no problem hitting holes with authority last season.  Heck, even Gio had a couple of nice, medium gainers that we hadn't seen in a while.

In today's NFL, there's just no room for "picking a hole", you have to hit it and take what's there, unless they're running some version of a stretch play and the back sees an opportunity to cut up before reaching the edge.

Exactly. This is where you have to trust your line to open that hole when you hit it. This is more coaching than anything and I agree with you. You know the play before the snap. You have to execute the play. But I will leave this tidbit. Going to lay a little of this at the feet of Dalton. He has not always been as sharp at reading the defense and changing calls at the line. He has been significantly better the last few years at reading defenses. Maybe he didn't have the authority to audible. Hard telling with the ML era of coaching. But I'll ask you this, how many times did we sit and watch a defense line up knowing we were running the ball and foresee before hand that if they ran, it wasn't going anywhere? Then they ran anyway. UGH!

[Shake n Blake]

When something is bad for 15 years (in this case, the run game), I look for common factors.

During that span, we had multiple RB coaches, many different RB's and 4 different OC's.

The only things that stayed the same were Marvin Lewis and the guy who coached the o-line and coordinated the run game.

We replaced that guy and had our best YPC since 2000. It is what it is.

[sonofstat]

(06-24-2019, 03:55 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: When something is bad for 15 years (in this case, the run game), I look for common factors.

During that span, we had multiple RB coaches, many different RB's and 4 different OC's.

The only things that stayed the same were Marvin Lewis and the guy who coached the o-line and coordinated the run game.

We replaced that guy and had our best YPC since 2000. It is what it is.

Frank Pollack did a good job in my opinion.

I completely understand ZT needed his guys but i rated Pollack and think credit for some that improved run performance was due to him.

[Shake n Blake]

(06-24-2019, 04:58 PM)sonofstat Wrote: Frank Pollack did a good job in my opinion.

I completely understand ZT needed his guys but i rated Pollack and think credit for some that improved run performance was due to him.

I was sad to see him go too. At least the Dolphins run game was decent when Turner was there (17th and 19th in YPC). 

That's certainly nothing to cheer about, but it's not as bad as we usually were under Paul Alexander.