Vegas and ESPN AFC North Division Outlook

[THE PISTONS]

(06-18-2019, 08:29 PM)NKURyan Wrote: Oh wow, you mean to tell me if they had an elite level QB they'd have won one of those games? What a shock.

Andy started 3 of those games. If Kirk Cousins, Joe Flacco, Matthew Stafford, or any of those guys in the same group as Dalton were here they still would've lost each and every one of those playoff games (except 2015, but Andy would've won that game too). I'm sure even Rogers or Wilson win with the offensive players they ran out there for the playoff game in 2014.

Hell, the 2009 playoff game was started by the "elite" Carson Palmer and he was hot garbage out there. But of course, when talking about how "elite" Carson was he have to cherry pick certain seasons to base his whole career summary on, so maybe that doesn't count.

But sure, let's pretend Andy's the problem and ignore everything else.

Interestingly the Texans beat us with TJ Yates. Maybe we needed him?

Dalton is not THE problem...but it is definitely harder in the NFL to win playoff games with average QB's. The best path seems to be to get a top 6-7 guy. Obviously that's hard to do.

[THE PISTONS]

(06-19-2019, 09:02 PM)NKURyan Wrote: For what it's worth, last year Vegas was way off base (more than 2.5 games in the over/under) on the Bears, Packers, Texans, Colts, Jags, Chiefs, Rams, Saints, Raiders, and 49ers. That's almost a third of the league! Like all predictions, take it with a large grain of salt and enjoy the hopefully entertaining discussions it leads to.

Vegas sets odds to make money from bettors. The Bengals are probably the least popular team in the NFL...so we'll have lower numbers. But, yes...Vegas is frequently wrong on NFL.

The Browns are the hot team adding OBJ and Hunt.

We really didn't add many players of note outside of Williams...so the media isn't going to be focusing on us.

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

(06-18-2019, 07:40 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: I feel like IF Aaron Rodgers were on the Bengals, we wouldn't be 0-7 in the playoffs. Same with Tom Brady. Russell Wilson.

I feel that IF you played QB growing up, you wouldn't say things like that. If you disagree, I explain it in the Dalton forum in the thread about reading defenses. 31 teams regularly do something on offense that the Bengals rarely do. If Brady played for the Bengals, he would have retired years ago.

[HarleyDog]

(06-19-2019, 08:23 PM)Circleville Guy Wrote: Vegas sometimes gets it wrong but usually is in the ballpark. I could see 7-8 wins if things go right. Vegas factors in actual team wide talent, proven coaching and doesn’t assume that every injured player will come back as if nothing had ever happened. Declining with age for key players is a thing too. Vegas should be a realistic look at where the Bengals are, there isn’t the politics and bias. Most fans can’t handle the truth if there’s any negative involved.

Your right about Vegas which is why when I bet against them I come out losing. Fandom is what makes them money. There are times however that my gut is right and they are wrong. This year will be one of them. I’m thinking 9-10 wins.

[NKURyan]

(06-19-2019, 11:09 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: Interestingly the Texans beat us with TJ Yates. Maybe we needed him?

Dalton is not THE problem...but it is definitely harder in the NFL to win playoff games with average QB's. The best path seems to be to get a top 6-7 guy. Obviously that's hard to do.

The fact that TJ Yates won the game shows that you don't need even a good QB to win a playoff game as long as he doesn't go out there and poop his pants. I'd chalk that Texans win up to the play of Arian Foster and JJ Watt. If Dalton gets a 150+ yards from Mixon and 3 turnovers from his defensive playmakers, he'll win more often than not too.

Until Brady, Rogers, Brees, Roethlisberger, Luck, and Mahomes retire it's not just hard to find a top 6-7 guy, it's impossible. And those guys won't be easily replaced even once they do - if 4 of those guys call it quits and all of the sudden a young guy is the #3 best guy in the league it doesn't mean he'll be able to do what those 4 retirees were capable of. 

We like to think it's just that easy to find that guy in the draft, but outside of Mahomes (who slid into pretty much the perfect situation) how many "elite" quarterbacks have been drafted over the last few years? Wentz? A lot of Philly fans liked Foles as a starter more than him. Goff? Plenty of fans haven't been happy with his postseason play. Trubisky? Not yet, not by a long shot. Mariota or Winston? It's time to put up or shut up for them. Darnold, Allen, and Rosen all have a ways to go. Mayfield? He at least *looks* like he has a shot, but he still hasn't won anything, his passer rating was 19th in the league last year (which this thread swears is REAL IMPORTANT) and his QBR was 22nd in the league. Does anybody really think any of the rookies drafted this year are going to buck the trend? I dunno...

But yes, in a dream scenario, if you happen to somehow get a Hall of Fame QB than yes, it might be easier to win a playoff game. Piece of cake, let's make it happen.

[THE PISTONS]

(06-20-2019, 02:18 PM)NKURyan Wrote: The fact that TJ Yates won the game shows that you don't need even a good QB to win a playoff game as long as he doesn't go out there and poop his pants. I'd chalk that Texans win up to the play of Arian Foster and JJ Watt. If Dalton gets a 150+ yards from Mixon and 3 turnovers from his defensive playmakers, he'll win more often than not too.

Until Brady, Rogers, Brees, Roethlisberger, Luck, and Mahomes retire it's not just hard to find a top 6-7 guy, it's impossible. And those guys won't be easily replaced even once they do - if 4 of those guys call it quits and all of the sudden a young guy is the #3 best guy in the league it doesn't mean he'll be able to do what those 4 retirees were capable of. 

We like to think it's just that easy to find that guy in the draft, but outside of Mahomes (who slid into pretty much the perfect situation) how many "elite" quarterbacks have been drafted over the last few years? Wentz? A lot of Philly fans liked Foles as a starter more than him. Goff? Plenty of fans haven't been happy with his postseason play. Trubisky? Not yet, not by a long shot. Mariota or Winston? It's time to put up or shut up for them. Darnold, Allen, and Rosen all have a ways to go. Mayfield? He at least *looks* like he has a shot, but he still hasn't won anything, his passer rating was 19th in the league last year (which this thread swears is REAL IMPORTANT) and his QBR was 22nd in the league. Does anybody really think any of the rookies drafted this year are going to buck the trend? I dunno...

But yes, in a dream scenario, if you happen to somehow get a Hall of Fame QB than yes, it might be easier to win a playoff game. Piece of cake, let's make it happen.

Funny you say the Texans won partially because of Watt...

Hmmm...would you elaborate on the exact plays that Watt did good on and which Bengal was the victim on those plays?

[Catmandude123]

(06-19-2019, 11:13 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: Vegas sets odds to make money from bettors. The Bengals are probably the least popular team in the NFL...so we'll have lower numbers. But, yes...Vegas is frequently wrong on NFL.

The Browns are the hot team adding OBJ and Hunt.

We really didn't add many players of note outside of Williams...so the media isn't going to be focusing on us.

Exactly. They have no interest in who wins because they win whoever wins. The odds are set by the amount of money bet against the total amount bet. If you want Vegas to have lower odds on the Bengals then bet more money on them. It won't change the probability of success. Only improved play and coaching will do that.

[NKURyan]

(06-21-2019, 01:32 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: Funny you say the Texans won partially because of Watt...

Hmmm...would you elaborate on the exact plays that Watt did good on and which Bengal was the victim on those plays?

The pick 6, obviously. Watt made a play that 99% of players at his position couldn't make - the commentators even say "I'm not sure there's another defensive tackle in the league who could catch that football" - on a pass where Andy looks to be throwing to an open Ryan Whalen. But sure, I get it, every INT is 100% Andy's fault and it couldn't possibly be a HoF defender making the type of play that put him in there.

I'd say Mike McGlynn (the RG who was, needless to say, completely and utterly outmatched that day) looked pretty victimized on that play.