Did Cleveland rob the Reds?

[Circleville Guy]

(09-03-2019, 07:44 PM)psychdoctor Wrote: From the Dodgers? I am assuming Wood will not re-sign with Reds. But one never knows. I know Wood is due 10 mil or so.

Bauer will probably get north of 15 Million.

[CJD]

(09-03-2019, 07:36 PM)fredtoast Wrote: So a 2.95 ERA over the last two years with the Indians (332 IP) is just "average"?

I'm not sure where you're getting your numbers, exactly. I calculate a 3.20 ERA in the 2017 and 2018 seasons. 

But that number is pulled WAY down by his one single great year, which was last year.

His ERAs in the 4 full seasons prior to 2018 were 4.19, 4.26, 4.55 and 4.18.
His WHIPs in the 4 full seasons prior to 2018 were 1.367, 1.311, 1.313 and 1.379.
His ERA+ in the 4 full seasons prior to 2018 were 109, 106, 95 and 94.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bauertr01.shtml

The average ERA in the 4 seasons prior to 2018 were 4.36, 4.19, 3.96 and 3.74.
The average WHIPs in the 4 seasons prior to 2018 were 1.342, 1.325, 1.294 and 1.275.
The average ERA+ in the 4 seasons prior to 2018 was presumably 100 each year (as that's what ERA+ is measuring against. The average).

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/pitch.shtml

So yes.

Trevor Bauer, by nearly any definition of the word, is an average pitcher if you assume his 2018 season was an aberration.

And what he's done in 2019 (4.53 ERA, 1.291 WHIP, 104 ERA+) are much closer to those previous 4 years than they are to 2018. So it's extremely fair to say he is an average starter based on the stats he is delivering.

His time as a Red has been FAR below average though, with an ERA of 8.40, a WHIP of 1.7 and and ERA+ of 55. It's only been 6 games, but what we've gotten so far from this trade has been complete and utter shit. At this point him being an average starter would be a dream come true!

If you have any more questions, I'd be happy to answer them.

[CJD]

(09-03-2019, 07:50 PM)fredtoast Wrote: We don't get Bauer without getting Puig from the Dodgers.

Puig was thrown in as a rental that could help the Indians push to the playoffs as a wild card. What got us Bauer was Trammell, a top 15 prospect in the minor leagues.

[*psychdoctor*]

(09-04-2019, 08:17 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Puig was thrown in as a rental that could help the Indians push to the playoffs as a wild card. What got us Bauer was Trammell, a top 15 prospect in the minor leagues.

Reds have given up several prospects in recent trades.  Gray seems to be working out.  Not sure on the trades with Indians and Dodgers.  I think Bauer will bring it next year.  It is a contract year, he has elite stuff.  Hopefully he is healthy.  I doubt Bauer will be a Red beyond 2020.  One never knows.  

Not much to show for after trading top prospects.  Reds are a mess but the sad thing is how close they could have come this year if right calls were made by a rookie manager and 3rd base coach and maybe a different closer.  Iggy (SP) should be traded.   

[guyofthetiger]

Well, Bauer has not pitched that good recently. I'm not really concerned about this season as the Reds are pretty much out of playoff contention. I am concerned about 2020 as I am tired of losing. Maybe an off season for Bauer to heal up and work on his game will show benefits next year. Please don't rebuild, but re-energize.

[fredtoast]

(09-04-2019, 08:04 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I'm not sure where you're getting your numbers, exactly. I calculate a 3.20 ERA in the 2017 and 2018 seasons. 

'18 and '19 were his last two years with the Indians.

[fredtoast]

(09-04-2019, 08:04 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: His ERAs in the 4 full seasons prior to 2018 were 4.19, 4.26, 4.55 and 4.18.
His WHIPs in the 4 full seasons prior to 2018 were 1.367, 1.311, 1.313 and 1.379.
His ERA+ in the 4 full seasons prior to 2018 were 109, 106, 95 and 94.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bauertr01.shtml

The average ERA in the 4 seasons prior to 2018 were 4.36, 4.19, 3.96 and 3.74.
The average WHIPs in the 4 seasons prior to 2018 were 1.342, 1.325, 1.294 and 1.275.
The average ERA+ in the 4 seasons prior to 2018 was presumably 100 each year (as that's what ERA+ is measuring against. The average).

Christian Yelich OPS the 4 seasons prior to 2018 were .764, .782, .859, .807.

Yelich was 25 in 2017.  Bauer was 26.

[CJD]

(09-04-2019, 09:08 PM)fredtoast Wrote: '18 and '19 were his last two years with the Indians.

Oh, so you were counting partial season in 2019 before he bombed with us since being traded.

Got it.

Still even if we look at that season, his ERA+ was 124. Good. But not elite. And his FIP is  0.37 points higher than his ERA, meaning he got some good defense/luck in Cleveland this year to depress his ERA.

(09-04-2019, 09:13 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Christian Yelich OPS the 4 seasons prior to 2018 were .764, .782, .859, .807.

Yelich was 25 in 2017.  Bauer was 26.

And then he produced 2 consecutive all star seasons.

If Bauer was pitching like 2018 right now, I'd agree with you that he's better than average.

Unfortunately for him, he's reverted to his previous form. Arguably, his true form. Steeply. 

Hopefully 2020 is better for him, but right now he's pitching like a shit pitcher and he only has 1 elite year and ~3/4 of a solid year separating him from complete mediocrity.

He's gonna be expensive as all hell in 2020 as well, so we're definitely on the losing end of this trade so far.


Also, an .807 OPS and an .859 OPS are definitely not bad years. That's somewhere between J.T Realmuto and Rhys Hoskins territory.
And better than any full time player on the Reds outside of Suarez.

The average OPS in 2017, 2016, 2015 and 2014 were .750, .739, .721 and .700
So Yelich was above average in any given year, with a peak of .120 above in 2016. 

In Bauer's case, he was below average in ERA 3 of the 4 years and below average in WHIP 3 of the 4 years.

So I don't even see the comparison between him and Bauer.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/bat.shtml

[Circleville Guy]

(09-04-2019, 09:50 AM)psychdoctor Wrote: Reds have given up several prospects in recent trades.  Gray seems to be working out.  Not sure on the trades with Indians and Dodgers.  I think Bauer will bring it next year.  It is a contract year, he has elite stuff.  Hopefully he is healthy.  I doubt Bauer will be a Red beyond 2020.  One never knows.  

Not much to show for after trading top prospects.  Reds are a mess but the sad thing is how close they could have come this year if right calls were made by a rookie manager and 3rd base coach and maybe a different closer.  Iggy (SP) should be traded.   

I guess I don’t get how he has “elite stuff”, CrazyJ listed his yearly stats. Like I originally posted, he’s has one elite year. His stuff doesn’t look elite right now! Maybe he’s hurt or maybe he will find himself but thus far he doesn’t look close to being elite.

[Yojimbo]

May end up San Diego is the winner of this trade.