Have to take a QB if we have a top 5 pick?

[fredtoast]

I hear a lot of people saying that we have to take a QB if we end up with a top 5 pick.

I am not saying we should NOT take a QB with our top 5 pick if the right guy is there, but I think a lot of QBs get drafted too high because of this line of thinking.  

For example, there have been 28 QBs taken in the top 5 picks of the last 20 drafts.  Only 5 of those 28 have started a Super Bowl.

Of the 21 QBs who have started the last 20 Super Bowls only 8 were taken in the first five picks.  That is the same number who were taken in the second round or later.  And no top 5 selection without the last name "Manning" has won Super Bowl in the last 20 years.

I know QB is the most important position on the team, and I know Dalton only has one year left on his contract.  So we have to be looking for a new QB, but I just don't want us to reach out of desperation.

[*psychdoctor*]

IMO, the Bengals will have top 2 pick in 2020. Not often does a team select in top 3 in draft but the Bengals may do so over the next two years. WTS, it will come down to Chase Young DE or Burrow QB. Burrow looks special to me. His game against Auburn was a true test and he took a beating for the first time this year.

Young looks to me like the best player in college football.

[Schmitbuck]

I agree with you but more for the reason that there are currently too many holes for a young QB to be successful. If/when we get a top pick this year, I'd want them to trade the pick to another QB needy team for a gang of picks. With the lack of activity in free agency, the pick would just be set up for failure.

Do you remember who the 6 of the top 5 picks to make the SB are? I'm assuming they're on teams with solid O-line play and a good defense.

[*bfine32*]

Before the rookie wage scale, drafting a QB very early was a huge risk because it could set a franchise back for years financially. With the new scale taking a QB early is no bigger risk than any position; however, the reward can be huge. If you need a QB and you have a top 1-3 pick you'd be silly not to go for it.

[yellowxdiscipline]

Chase Young is appealing, but I agree it has to be a QB, if not Tua then Burrow.

[TJHoushmandzadeh's Shiny Shoes]

(10-29-2019, 12:42 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I hear a lot of people saying that we have to take a QB if we end up with a top 5 pick.

I am not saying we should NOT take a QB with our top 5 pick if the right guy is there, but I think a lot of QBs get drafted too high because of this line of thinking.  

For example, there have been 28 QBs taken in the top 5 picks of the last 20 drafts.  Only 6 of those 28 have started a Super Bowl and one of those was Blake Bortles.

Of the 21 QBs who have started the last 20 Super Bowls only 8 were taken in the first five picks.  That is the same number who were taken in the second round or later.  And no top 5 selection without the last name "Manning" has won Super Bowl in the last 20 years.

I know QB is the most important position on the team, and I know Dalton only has one year left on his contract.  So we have to be looking for a new QB, but I just don't want us to reach out of desperation.

I think this mainly shows that it's generally bad teams picking top 5 with lots of holes, not just at QB. A new QB is more likely to put an 9-7 team over the top rather than an organization in disarray enough to finish 3-13. What happens with those types of organizations picking 1-5 is they lurch from Head Coach/GM to Head Coach/GM, changing philosophies and schemes.

I'd also suggest that it's less about teams reaching for the position and more about just bad assessment as often there will be better QBs taken after them.

Finally, are there actually more busts at 6-10 than 1-5?

[Ravage]

(10-29-2019, 12:42 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Only 6 of those 28 have started a Super Bowl and one of those was Blake Bortles.

When the hell did Blake Bortles even get to, let alone start, a Super Bowl?

[BengalChris]

Given that the team is more than one draft away from contending for a playoff spot, probably 3 because they'll lose some current starters, I think you take the best player available with these high picks. May or may not be a QB.

Since the team isn't willing to give Finley a shot at showing what he can do I have to assume they don't consider him a possibly future starter for the team.

[Sanforbd]

Blake Bortles started a superbowl? Huh?

[Bengalfan4life27c]

I have heard quite a few analysts saying Fields is the best QB and its not close

[KillerGoose]

(10-29-2019, 12:42 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I hear a lot of people saying that we have to take a QB if we end up with a top 5 pick.

I am not saying we should NOT take a QB with our top 5 pick if the right guy is there, but I think a lot of QBs get drafted too high because of this line of thinking.  

For example, there have been 28 QBs taken in the top 5 picks of the last 20 drafts.  Only 6 of those 28 have started a Super Bowl and one of those was Blake Bortles.

Of the 21 QBs who have started the last 20 Super Bowls only 8 were taken in the first five picks.  That is the same number who were taken in the second round or later.  And no top 5 selection without the last name "Manning" has won Super Bowl in the last 20 years.

I know QB is the most important position on the team, and I know Dalton only has one year left on his contract.  So we have to be looking for a new QB, but I just don't want us to reach out of desperation.

Blake Bortles has never been to a Super Bowl.

I agree with this idea. They don’t NEED to draft a QB if they think someone like Chase Young is a better fit. I think a lot of people underestimate what a good coaching staff can really do for an offense. Look at the Colts, Saints, Panthers (even the Jaguars). They all have had back up QBs in for an extended period of time and still found plenty of success on offense and with games in general.

I would love for them to pull the trigger on a QB but I’m not going to riot if they don’t (unless they pick someone way out of left field.)

[yellowxdiscipline]

(10-29-2019, 01:16 PM)Bengalfan4life27c Wrote: I have heard quite a few analysts saying Fields is the best QB and its not close

Im a Buckeyes fan, and i dont think Fields is better then Burrow at this point. Fields will probably be one of the top QB prospects next year if he cleans up some things but as of right now id say Tua, Hurts and Burrow are all better then Fields. Not to mention that Justin isnt getting drafted this year.

[fredtoast]

(10-29-2019, 01:05 PM)Schmitbuck Wrote: I agree with you but more for the reason that there are currently too many holes for a young QB to be successful. If/when we get a top pick this year, I'd want them to trade the pick to another QB needy team for a gang of picks.se.

This would be my plan also.

Trading a player fort a pick just creates another hole to fill.  Trading one pick for a bundle fills more holes without creating a new one.

(10-29-2019, 01:05 PM)Schmitbuck Wrote: Do you remember who the 6 of the top 5 picks to make the SB are? I'm assuming they're on teams with solid O-line play and a good defense.

Here are those 5 ( I was mistaken about Bortles).  The numbers are the offense ranking for run and pass in their super Bowl seasons(s)

Goff, Newton, Ryan, and Eli Manning all had a top 5 rush attack when they made their first Super Bowl.  Donovan McNabb is the only one who did not (and Eli in his second SB)

[TJHoushmandzadeh's Shiny Shoes]

(10-29-2019, 01:16 PM)Sanforbd Wrote: Blake Bortles started a superbowl? Huh?

Please, no Good Place spoilers.

[*PhilHos*]

(10-29-2019, 12:42 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I hear a lot of people saying that we have to take a QB if we end up with a top 5 pick.

I am not saying we should NOT take a QB with our top 5 pick if the right guy is there, but I think a lot of QBs get drafted too high because of this line of thinking.  

For example, there have been 28 QBs taken in the top 5 picks of the last 20 drafts.  Only 6 of those 28 have started a Super Bowl and one of those was Blake Bortles.

Of the 21 QBs who have started the last 20 Super Bowls only 8 were taken in the first five picks.  That is the same number who were taken in the second round or later.  And no top 5 selection without the last name "Manning" has won Super Bowl in the last 20 years.

I know QB is the most important position on the team, and I know Dalton only has one year left on his contract.  So we have to be looking for a new QB, but I just don't want us to reach out of desperation.

The thing is that QB is now a position of need for us (assuming we don't get to see Finley or Dolegala on the field for the rest of the season).

[fredtoast]

(10-29-2019, 01:23 PM)PhilHos Wrote: The thing is that QB is now a position of need for us (assuming we don't get to see Finley or Dolegala on the field for the rest of the season).

We have the 32nd ranked defense in the league (for the second year in a row) and the 32nd ranked running game.

We have A LOT of positions of need.

[Bengalfan4life27c]

(10-29-2019, 01:20 PM)yellowxdiscipline Wrote: Im a Buckeyes fan, and i dont think Fields is better then Burrow at this point. Fields will probably be one of the top QB prospects next year if he cleans up some things but as of right now id say Tua, Hurts and Burrow are all better then Fields. Not to mention that Justin isnt getting drafted this year.

He will be 21 by the time of the draft. would he be eligible for early entry

[fredtoast]

(10-29-2019, 01:13 PM)Ravage Wrote: When the hell did Blake Bortles even get to, let alone start, a Super Bowl?

(10-29-2019, 01:16 PM)Sanforbd Wrote: Blake Bortles started a superbowl? Huh?

(10-29-2019, 01:18 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Blake Bortles has never been to a Super Bowl. 

Derp!


Corrected.

[*PhilHos*]

(10-29-2019, 01:28 PM)fredtoast Wrote: We have the 32nd ranked defense in the league (for the second year in a row) and the 32nd ranked running game.

We have A LOT of positions of need.

I do not dispute that. I'm not saying we HAVE to take a QB, but it IS a position of need.

That's why it doesn't make sense to NOT try out Finely and Dolegala the rest of the season. If either one of them shows they're capable, then QB is no longer a need and we can go some other position in the 1st round.

[yellowxdiscipline]

(10-29-2019, 01:32 PM)Bengalfan4life27c Wrote: He will be 21 by the time of the draft. would he be eligible for early entry

Yea hes not entering the draft this year, hed be a Day 2 prospect at this point, hes waiting till next year when he'll be a sure fire Top 10 pick. It makes too much sense.