Guess the QBs

[shanebo]

I recently noticed a few unsettling similarities between two QBs, one of whom I like, and the other not so much. We'll call them Player A and Player B.

Both Player A and Player B transferred to a major college program their junior years and became a starting QB at that program. Neither achieved much success initially. During their junior years:

Player A played 11 games. 54% completion percentage. 6.9 yards/attempt. 13 TDs, 7 INTs for a 126.6 passer rating.
Player B played 13 games. 57.8% completion percentage. 7.6 yards/attempt. 16 TDs, 5 INTs for a 133.2 passer rating.

Both Player A and Player B broke out their senior seasons, and each had their best year by far despite a (relative) paucity of surrounding talent.

Player A threw for 3763 yards, 10.1 yards/attempt. 32 TDs, 8 INTs for a 167.3 rating.
Player B threw for 2894 yards, 10.8 yards/attempt. 30 TDs, 4 INTs for a 204.5 rating (BUT through just 8 games).

Player A was a high first round draft pick; Player B is currently projected to be a high first round pick.

Enough hints. Rep points to anyone who can correctly identify Player A and/or Player B.

Disclaimer - These stats are selectively cherry-picked to incite a discussion. There is another very significant stat that I purposely left out that shows what I hope will be a major difference between these two players. Triple rep points if you can ID the stat.

I'll give the answers tomorrow.

[*Synric*]

We can all guess player B but is Player A Ryan Mallett?

[KillerGoose]

Player A is Akili Smith. Player B is Joe Burrow.

[*psychdoctor*]

Joe Burrow is player B.
Joe Flacco is player A would be my guess.

[shanebo]

(11-07-2019, 09:15 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Player A is Akili Smith. Player B is Joe Burrow.

Ding ding, we have a winner. Reps to you, sir. 

I like what I’ve seen from burrow this year, but this comparison scares me. A lot.  

The only real difference I could find - and it’s a doozie - is completion percentage. Akili’s was 58% his senior year, which carried over to his pro career (barf-inducing 46.6%). Burrow’s is currently an unbelievable 78.8%. 

Obviously there are other factors (football smarts, athleticism, etc.) and no two players are alike, but this really shocked me. 

[Bilbo Saggins]

I guess the Colts were dumb to take Peyton Manning based upon some loose, tangential association with some random bust from decades prior 

[Au165]

Stats in college for QB's are simply check boxes. They can be negative marks against you but honestly you give little thought to big numbers because the competition different players play against and the schemes they use have such an impact on them. Saying two guys have similar stats in college has pretty much no predictive value.

[*ochocincos*]

(11-07-2019, 06:31 PM)shanebo Wrote: I recently noticed a few unsettling similarities between two QBs, one of whom I like, and the other not so much.  We'll call them Player A and Player B.

Both Player A and Player B transferred to a major college program their junior years and became a starting QB at that program.  Neither achieved much success initially.  During their junior years:

Player A played 11 games.  54% completion percentage.  6.9 yards/attempt.  13 TDs, 7 INTs for a 126.6 passer rating.
Player B played 13 games.  57.8% completion percentage.  7.6 yards/attempt.  16 TDs, 5 INTs for a 133.2 passer rating.

Both Player A and Player B broke out their senior seasons, and each had their best year by far despite a (relative) paucity of surrounding talent.

Player A threw for 3763 yards, 10.1 yards/attempt.  32 TDs, 8 INTs for a 167.3 rating.
Player B threw for 2894 yards, 10.8 yards/attempt.  30 TDs, 4 INTs for a 204.5 rating (BUT through just 8 games).

Player A was a high first round draft pick; Player B is currently projected to be a high first round pick.

Enough hints.  Rep points to anyone who can correctly identify Player A and/or Player B.

Disclaimer - These stats are selectively cherry-picked to incite a discussion.  There is another very significant stat that I purposely left out  that shows what I hope will be a major difference between these two players.  Triple rep points if you can ID the stat.

I'll give the answers tomorrow.

Player B is Joe Burrow. That one was easy.
Player A is Akili Smith. Took awhile to find that, but I found it!

The significant stat that you left out was completion percentage. Smith was never above 60% whereas Burrow has nearly an 80% completion percentage this year.

[shanebo]

(11-08-2019, 11:11 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Player B is Joe Burrow. That one was easy.
Player A is Akili Smith. Took awhile to find that, but I found it!

The significant stat that you left out was completion percentage. Smith was never above 60% whereas Burrow has nearly an 80% completion percentage this year.

That's it!

To clarify, I'm not saying (or predicting) that Burrow will be the next Akili Smith.  Obviously, they are two very different people/players, and there are many significant differences between the two, pro and con.  Akili was a more heralded QB prospect out of high school (all-american), a better athlete (played 3 years of minor league baseball), and had a bigger arm.  Burrow is smarter, has a better work ethic (by all accounts), throws a more catchable ball, and generally makes better on-field decisions and has a better pocket presence. 

But the similarities are uncanny.  In addition to the stats I cited, both are "one-year wonders" and were largely considered undraftable before their successful senior seasons.  (I read yesterday that Meyer used to tease Burrow at OSU and call him a DIII QB; he was never seriously considered to contend for the starting spot there).  Both were/will be older than average when drafted (Akili was 24, Burrow will be 23).  Both are slightly smaller than the size thought to be "prototypical" for QBs.  Both come from somewhat gimmicky offenses -- Akili ran a pro style with option packages, Burrow runs a spread/RPO combo.  Both were/are only required to read half the field in college.   Was certainly enough to raise my eyebrows, as I had never realized a lot of this ...

And while college stats don't carry over to the NFL and are not predictive of NFL success, I've read that completion percentage is the measurable that best translates from college to the NFL.  Akili's was mediocre in college and terrible in the NFL.  Burrow's is far better this year, but prior to that time was roughly equivalent to Akili's.  What's the reason for his recent success?  Has he really gotten that much better at completing passes?  Possibly.   Or maybe it's just a product of the system?  Or maybe it's his receivers (who have been described as "rangy," whatever that means ...)?  I have no idea, but I'm really starting to obsess about this (as you can probably tell). 

[*ochocincos*]

(11-08-2019, 01:08 PM)shanebo Wrote: That's it!

To clarify, I'm not saying (or predicting) that Burrow will be the next Akili Smith.  Obviously, they are two very different people/players, and there are many significant differences between the two, pro and con.  Akili was a more heralded QB prospect out of high school (all-american), a better athlete (played 3 years of minor league baseball), and had a bigger arm.  Burrow is smarter, has a better work ethic (by all accounts), throws a more catchable ball, and generally makes better on-field decisions and has a better pocket presence. 

But the similarities are uncanny.  In addition to the stats I cited, both are "one-year wonders" and were largely considered undraftable before their successful senior seasons.  (I read yesterday that Meyer used to tease Burrow at OSU and call him a DIII QB; he was never seriously considered to contend for the starting spot there).  Both were/will be older than average when drafted (Akili was 24, Burrow will be 23).  Both are slightly smaller than the size thought to be "prototypical" for QBs.  Both come from somewhat gimmicky offenses -- Akili ran a pro style with option packages, Burrow runs a spread/RPO combo.  Both were/are only required to read half the field in college.   Was certainly enough to raise my eyebrows, as I had never realized a lot of this ...

And while college stats don't carry over to the NFL and are not predictive of NFL success, I've read that completion percentage is the measurable that best translates from college to the NFL.  Akili's was mediocre in college and terrible in the NFL.  Burrow's is far better this year, but prior to that time was roughly equivalent to Akili's.  What's the reason for his recent success?  Has he really gotten that much better at completing passes?  Possibly.   Or maybe it's just a product of the system?  Or maybe it's his receivers (who have been described as "rangy," whatever that means ...)?  I have no idea, but I'm really starting to obsess about this (as you can probably tell). 

I'm always going to be skeptical of a QB who takes a massive leap in production their final year before the draft. It's (almost?) never panned out well once the QB gets to the NFL.

With that said, Burrow may be a product of his environment. He got passed over multiple times in favor of JT Barrett, Cardale Jones, and seemingly Dwayne Haskins. He then chose to go to LSU, who traditionally had been a heavy run-based team under Les Miles.
According to reports, Orgeron has wanted to go to a more pass-focused offense ever since he took over for Miles in 2016 but finally was able to get to where he wanted once they hired former Saints assistant Joe Brady as passing game coordinator.

So, on one hand, you could say that Burrow was just doing as the program dictated his first year at LSU and that's why he wasn't as productive in 2018. But on the other hand, you could easily question why he couldn't beat out any of Barrett (not in NFL), Jones (no longer in NFL), and Haskins (designated to backup behind Case Keenum to start 2019 but now starting yet not doing well so far).

I think anyone who has concerns of any SEC QB being great can back their claim by how the SEC teams are typically built on defense, the running game, and typically really good WRs when the QB is putting up bigger numbers. However, I think Tua is a different type of QB than what Alabama has typically put out there, same with Burrow. I think the Bengals need a more mobile guy, and I think Tua offers that better. Plus, Williams has protected Tua before so that helps.

It's been quite a while where none of the Top 5 QBs for a draft class are from the Big 12 or ACC. We're currently looking at the Top 5 being from the SEC (Tua, Burrow, Fromm) and PAC 12 (Herbert, Eason). Very weird.

[blt4584]

I think the leap Burrow has had can be attributed to a couple things:

1. He didn't get on campus until around July last year and won the job as soon as he got there. From all accounts, the team loved him pretty much instantly, but it still took time to built chemistry.

2. On the chemistry front, LSU kept switching out WRs throughout the game last year. They might have had 5 different combinations on the first 5 drives and I don't think that any of them could get in sync with anyone else. This year Jefferson, Chase, and Marshall are almost always out there and they have just clicked a lot more as a result.

3. The play calling and O-line didn't match last year. They were still a run heavy team that had a lot of long developing pass plays, but the line wasn't good enough to let the plays actually develop. Burrow would either have to force throws or throw early and hope that it worked out. With Brady in the fold, they have an offense that is actually built for the talent.