How timing affects the perception of a coach

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(11-27-2019, 05:14 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Then Taylor needs to get rid of that ego too and it definitely could be the teams why our Defense looked better as of late.

Still isn't good enough, want to get back to a punishing, pass rushing, aggressive Defense.

I'm starting to wonder if the 4 front defense is going the way of the dodo.

[THE PISTONS]

(11-27-2019, 04:37 PM)Wyche Wrote: Yeah, I thought they were going to get the DC out of Florida when Del Rio fell through. That may have made things a bit better.

There was no way he was coming here. None.

Coaches use us for leverage to get paid more.

[THE PISTONS]

(11-27-2019, 04:53 PM)Wyche Wrote: You'll get no argument from me on the luck....lol.

I think Zac would have 2 wins now, if we weren't trying Finley. The flip of that is....you had to try out Finley.

If I look at the opening day lineup (which already had some KEY injuries on offense), I'd say it's a 5 win team with a good, experienced staff. Any more wins then that, and you're talking Belichick level. Just my humble opinion.

Bottom line, I don't think this organization was set up for a young guy and staff like Zac and Co. As Fred noted....the last 4 drafts have been absolutely terrible. FAs have been let go and replaced with lesser talent. It's just not a very good team, and the inexperience leading it is magnifying the issues.

4 bad drafts in a row crushes a franchise for several years.

[BengalChris]

(11-27-2019, 05:04 PM)TJHoushmandzadeh Wrote: Jordan as well.

Not winning is also a lot to do with confidence. If this team had won at Seattle it would have evolved very differently. Instead it spirals downwards.

Yes, Jordan as well. At the least the 2018 draft supplied Bates (who played well as a rookie and regressed this year) and Hubbard who has just played well, plus some other guys like Phillips who turned out to be a decent corner and return guy this year until he was hurt and Auden Tate who at least is out there making catches.

Compare that to the 2019 draft and the 2019 draft is significantly worse.

If this team had what it took to actually win that Seattle game they'd have at least a few wins this season, but the didn't have it. Key mistakes blew that 1st game.

 

[BengalChris]

(11-27-2019, 07:06 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: 4 bad drafts in a row crushes a franchise for several years.

I believe it's been 5 years starting with 2015 and Ogbuehi through 2019. I don't believe all the picks from those drafts were bad though, 2015 not withstanding, where Uzomah is the only player left on the team. The problem is that the team whiffed on key top picks that were suppose to replace departing quality players like Whit, Marvin Jones, Sanu, Zeitler, etc.

Whiffing on the OL repeatedly has really hurt the team as has whiffing on LBers. Those are the Bengals major weak spots. The team is still in the same spot where it could really use 3 new LBers.

The Ross whiff is felt when AJ is injured. Ross has only looked AJ like in 1 out of 43 games since he was drafted and that's just a huge drop off. The Bengals had chances to draft Shuster or Michael Thomas, as well as other WRs who turned out to be good NFL players.

 

[Bilbo Saggins]

The premise that is laid out by the OP is too hypothetical for my taste. I get that certain rosters during certain time periods are far better than others. There are certain groups of players out there who could probably be told to "go base cover 2" by any old schlub and they'd do fine at it, or certain players who can just be told to "rush the passer" and do an elite job without much instruction. The problem I have is that if you can't evaluate a head coach by their win/loss total, or anything other than the product that they put on the field relative to their peers, what can you judge them by? Would it be fair to go down a rabbit hole of hypotheticals based upon someone else's results? How could you ever be objective with such an analysis? Where would it end? "Gee, if Sean Payton had come to town with two Andrew Whitworths on the line and Tim Couch in his prime, but was hamstrung by a crappy defensive coordinator..." Do you see how absurd this line of thinking can get very quickly? How can you attribute any of Marvin Lewis's wins or losses to a hypothetical coach? Isn't Marvin Lewis's record Marvin Lewis's record? Aren't Zac Taylor's results Zac Taylor's? Why would Zac Taylor be entitled to any hypothetical wins from a different theoretical timeframe?

[fredtoast]

(11-28-2019, 02:14 AM)Bilbo Saggins Wrote: Do you see how absurd this line of thinking can get very quickly? How can you attribute any of Marvin Lewis's wins or losses to a hypothetical coach? Isn't Marvin Lewis's record Marvin Lewis's record? Aren't Zac Taylor's results Zac Taylor's? Why would Zac Taylor be entitled to any hypothetical wins from a different theoretical timeframe?

Actually I don't think it is absurd at all to think that Marvin Lewis was just as good of a coach for a 4 win team in '10 as he was for a playoff team both the year before and the year after.  I don't think coaches' (not just Lewis's) records fluctuate wildly because they are constantly forgetting and then remembering how to be a good coach.

[THE PISTONS]

(11-28-2019, 01:52 AM)BengalChris Wrote: I believe it's been 5 years starting with 2015 and Ogbuehi through 2019. I don't believe all the picks from those drafts were bad though, 2015 not withstanding, where Uzomah is the only player left on the team. The problem is that the team whiffed on key top picks that were suppose to replace departing quality players like Whit, Marvin Jones, Sanu, Zeitler, etc.

Whiffing on the OL repeatedly has really hurt the team as has whiffing on LBers. Those are the Bengals major weak spots. The team is still in the same spot where it could really use 3 new LBers.

The Ross whiff is felt when AJ is injured. Ross has only looked AJ like in 1 out of 43 games since he was drafted and that's just a huge drop off. The Bengals had chances to draft Shuster or Michael Thomas, as well as other WRs who turned out to be good NFL players.

 

Nice post. And that's the crux of the problem.

Then, not signing free agents compounds it.

[THE PISTONS]

You can build a line in free agency. And last years free agent class was considered to be bad. The Bills signed some 22 free agents and are 9-3 right now:

Love how the Bills attacked Offensive Line in free agency by signing a starting center to big money and then adding two guards and two tackles into the mix.

C -- Mitch Morse
OG -- Quinton Spain, Jon Feliciano
OT -- Ty Nsekhe, LaAdrian Waddle

— Jeaux Goodberry (@JoeGoodberry) April 4, 2019

<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[BengalChris]

(11-30-2019, 10:45 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: You can build a line in free agency. And last years free agent class was considered to be bad. The Bills signed some 22 free agents and are 9-3 right now:

Love how the Bills attacked Offensive Line in free agency by signing a starting center to big money and then adding two guards and two tackles into the mix.

C -- Mitch Morse
OG -- Quinton Spain, Jon Feliciano
OT -- Ty Nsekhe, LaAdrian Waddle

— Jeaux Goodberry (@JoeGoodberry) April 4, 2019

<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Yeah, but Mikey hates free agency. It's the devil.

 

[fredtoast]

(11-30-2019, 10:45 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: You can build a line in free agency. And last years free agent class was considered to be bad. The Bills signed some 22 free agents and are 9-3 right now:

Love how the Bills attacked Offensive Line in free agency by signing a starting center to big money and then adding two guards and two tackles into the mix.

C -- Mitch Morse
OG -- Quinton Spain, Jon Feliciano
OT -- Ty Nsekhe, LaAdrian Waddle

— Jeaux Goodberry (@JoeGoodberry) April 4, 2019

<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

So now Trollberry is claiming the ONE PLAYOFF SEASON IN LAST TWO DECADES Bills are the model franchise.   He just keeps showing how clueless he is about the NFL.

Bills have been siging free agents for the last twenty years while doing much worse than the Bengals.

[Bilbo Saggins]

(11-28-2019, 01:26 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Actually I don't think it is absurd at all to think that Marvin Lewis was just as good of a coach for a 4 win team in '10 as he was for a playoff team both the year before and the year after.  I don't think coaches' (not just Lewis's) records fluctuate wildly because they are constantly forgetting and then remembering how to be a good coach.

So a head coach has a static value no matter what their record is? If that were true, why would coaches ever be replaced? Why isn't Jeff Fisher or John Fox a HC currently? Both have decent records. Is it the collective opinion of 32 owners that both have forgotten how to coach properly? 

Back to my point: How has Zac Taylor earned anything aside from a goose egg? What has he done at any point in his coaching career to convince anyone that he could replicate any of Lewis's seasons? The number of players who have regressed this year under ZT seem to far outnumber the players like Hopkins who appear to be getting better. That doesn't really scream "potential with a better roster" to me. 

Side topic on the Bills: the 22 FA this year was an experiment. They don't usually go out and make such aggressive moves(maybe Mario Williams a while back would qualify, but he was just one guy). It was an interesting strategy and it seems to have paid off. They now have a line that looks halfway competent, a reliable slot weapon to throw to in Beasley, and a deep defense that could handle losing some of its older stalwarts. I think that the lesson here is that they got their QB in place, got their system in place, went out and were aggressive dumpster divers, and it seems to have worked. Josh Allen looks competent now that he has some help. This might be the new "trade down like the Pats" strategy: Go out and get a ton of cheap vets. Keep the ones you like and blend in some youth. Everyone on the roster knows that it's sink or swim. The coaches know that they aren't stuck with anyone.