AJ Green Value Per Spotrac

[Whatever]

(12-22-2019, 10:03 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: And that risk isn't elevated if he signs a contract that pays him something along the lines of....  
Base Salary of $4m
$250k per game active
$500k more per game if he starts.
$1m for Pro Bowl
$1m for All-Pro

He plays 0 games, he gets $4m. Makes 16 starts, gets $16m. If he's Pro Bowl and All-Pro, $18m.

He's been hurt for quite awhile now (but lets be honest, we all know he would have been playing this year if the Bengals weren't awful and he was in FA year), but he still has #1 WR potential. A team will pay him based on that, but hedge their potential losses with incentives like I listed. If he never gets healthy, a contract with all those incentives means no real dead money to speak of to get out of it.

(Also keep in mind the Bengals have had the worst OC in the league the last 4 years.)


Larry Fitzgerald specifically wants to stay in Arizona. So his market for FA is exactly 1 team out of 32. 
AJ is going to a market where presumably all 32 teams are on the table.

Incentive based contracts don't really help the team because you have to account for them against the cap as if they are going to hit all of them regardless of how much they actually get paid.  

As another example, Dez Bryant got less than $2 mil when he signed with the Saints.  

[Whatever]

(12-22-2019, 10:21 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: If you're AJ Green, an elite athlete who has spent most of his life being great at what he does, do you think he settles for $9m/yr or does he bet on himself to do what he knows he is capable of doing for up to twice that amount per year?

Why in the world would AJ accept a 2yr/$18m deal if he isn't willing to play under a 1yr franchise tag that this year was worth $16.8m? He's obviously betting on himself.

Why would any team sign him to a one year deal when he's said he'll skip OTA's without a multi-year deal?

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(12-22-2019, 10:44 PM)Whatever Wrote: Incentive based contracts don't really help the team because you have to account for them against the cap as if they are going to hit all of them regardless of how much they actually get paid.

There are 20 teams with at least $10m in cap space right this second. There are 10 with at least $20m in cap space right now. That's much less of an issue than you're making it sound like.

(12-22-2019, 10:46 PM)Whatever Wrote: Why would any team sign him to a one year deal when he's said he'll skip OTA's without a multi-year deal?

When did I ever say it was a one year deal? I just said there's ways to format a deal where there's an acceptable amount of risk and then gave an example of how it could theoretically be formatted per year.

3yr, $12m guaranteed ($4m base salary per year), with a max value of $54m if every single incentive was hit.

Just as a theoretical example of how to give AJ Green a contract he'd be happy with while not exposing yourself as a team. If he hits those incentives, he'll be worth it. If he doesn't, you're not out a ton.

[TJHoushmandzadeh's Shiny Shoes]

(12-22-2019, 10:21 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: If you're AJ Green, an elite athlete who has spent most of his life being great at what he does, do you think he settles for $9m/yr or does he bet on himself to do what he knows he is capable of doing for up to twice that amount per year?

Why in the world would AJ accept a 2yr/$18m deal if he isn't willing to play under a 1yr franchise tag that this year was worth $16.8m? He's obviously betting on himself.

It could be less how much the contract is than who it is with...

[Sled21]

(12-22-2019, 08:20 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Tag him for 18 million for one year when he already said he would not do training camp if tagged??

I say offer him 3 year 45 million deal with 25 million guaranteed

I think people are reading too much into the "will not do training camp" statement. First, he said he will not do OTA's or Spring Ball, but would have to make the determination about training camp "because at some point, I have to get into football shape". I don't think he's skipping these in protest like other diva's sometimes do, I just think he knows, if tagged, he has to be on the field to "prove it" and doesn't want another pre-season injury. I don't blame him for this line of thought. He doesn't need the extra practice, he just needs enough to get timing down with Burrow.

[Whatever]

(12-23-2019, 02:01 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: There are 20 teams with at least $10m in cap space right this second. There are 10 with at least $20m in cap space right now. That's much less of an issue than you're making it sound like.


When did I ever say it was a one year deal? I just said there's ways to format a deal where there's an acceptable amount of risk and then gave an example of how it could theoretically be formatted per year.

3yr, $12m guaranteed ($4m base salary per year), with a max value of $54m if every single incentive was hit.

Just as a theoretical example of how to give AJ Green a contract he'd be happy with while not exposing yourself as a team. If he hits those incentives, he'll be worth it. If he doesn't, you're not out a ton.

Nobody is setting aside $18 mil in cap space for a guy who hasn't played in a year and a half.  

He wants a multi year deal because he wants another huge payday with a ton of guaranteed money.  Why would he be happy with a multi year deal with less guaranteed money than the FT?  

[fredtoast]

(12-22-2019, 07:22 PM)bfine32 Wrote: IMO, no one will sign AJ for more than a 1 year "prove it" deal.

This.

It is bad to be an injured player in a free agent year.

It is much worse to be an injured player who did not recover properly.  

[Luvnit2]

(12-23-2019, 11:23 AM)fredtoast Wrote: This.

It is bad to be an injured player in a free agent year.

It is much worse to be an injured player who did not recover properly.  

You & Bfine may be correct, but I would be surprised if he only gets a 1 year deal. There are 32 teams, my guess is at least one would take the risk to sign him for 2 or more years. I will name a few:

1. Steelers
2. Panthers
3. Bengals
4. Cowboys
5. Colts
6. Pats

[fredtoast]

(12-23-2019, 11:23 AM)fredtoast Wrote: This.

It is bad to be an injured player in a free agent year.

It is much worse to be an injured player who did not recover properly.  

Also forgot to mention that the 2020 draft is supposed to be one of the best in years for WR talent.

Really roor timing for Green to have these problems.