Auden Tate: Where to play him

[Sled21]

(12-31-2019, 11:31 AM)Au165 Wrote: This isn't based in fact what so ever. He get's 10 inches less separation that Tyler Boyd. The difference is their average depth of target is over 3 yards different with Tate having much deeper average depth of targets. That difference in average depth of target leads to a full point difference in target quality rating from Boyd to Tate (scores ball placement, 6 is average Tate's was 4.4 Boyd's was 5.5). What is interesting is Dalton's target rating as a whole was 7.4, but was heavily bolstered by shorter passes where he was far above league average in accuracy and then fell off a cliff as he got deeper down the field.

Basically, what the actual data shows us is that Tate was thrown a lot of horrible balls that were uncatchable downfield. When they were catchable however he came down with an insanely high rate of them. His separation is really not any worse than Tyler Boyd (who has a really good contested catch rate BTW), but Boyd benefited from more accurately thrown balls at a shorter depth of target.

Tate gets a lot of extremely high balls for the simple fact that when the QB is struggling to find an open receiver, he knows he can throw a high ball to Tate and he will either get it, or it will be incomplete, not intercepted. 

[Au165]

(12-31-2019, 11:45 AM)Sled21 Wrote: Tate gets a lot of extremely high balls for the simple fact that when the QB is struggling to find an open receiver, he knows he can throw a high ball to Tate and he will either get it, or it will be incomplete, not intercepted. 

Right, which then gets him credited a target but they aren't actually viewed as catchable balls. What is interesting is in 2018 AJ Green only got 2 inches more separation than Tate had this season but had a 15% higher catchable target rating and a full 4 point higher target quality score. Basically, he wasn't getting anymore separation but was being thrown better quality balls. My theory here is Dalton's chemistry with AJ had him putting the ball in more catchable areas versus the "go get it or it sails out of bounds" throws he was giving Tate this year. I think a QB with better ball placement can make Tate a star in this league. 

[TJHoushmandzadeh's Shiny Shoes]

(12-31-2019, 11:13 AM)Au165 Wrote: All targets aren't created equal. His catchable target rate was only 65% good for 98th in the league. Basically the balls were thrown in his direction but a lot of them had no chance to be conceivably caught. His 2.5% drop rate is a little higher than you want, but on his limited catchable targets that's only two balls.

How much of that is down to his route running rather than his QB though?

What are the figures for Boyd, Ross and Erickson so we can try and strip out the QB factor.

[Au165]

(12-31-2019, 11:57 AM)TJHoushmandzadeh Wrote: How much of that is down to his route running rather than his QB though?

What are the figures for Boyd, Ross and Erickson so we can try and strip out the QB factor.

Auden Tate Catchable target rate 65.4% with a target quality score of 4.4 
Tyler Boyd Catchable target rate 76.4% with a target quality score of 5.5 
John Ross Catchable target rate 80.4% with a target quality score of 7.4 
Alex Erckson Catchable target rate 74.3% with a target quality score of 4.9 

Tate had the worst amount of catchable targets and quality thrown balls. As another poster pointed out he became the throw it up and pray outlet for our QB's this season. Basically John Ross squandered the best opportunities to make things happen and everyone else kind of did what they could with Tate getting the worst of the balls.

[TJHoushmandzadeh's Shiny Shoes]

(12-31-2019, 12:06 PM)Au165 Wrote: Auden Tate Catchable target rate 65.4% with a target quality score of 4.4 
Tyler Boyd Catchable target rate 76.4% with a target quality score of 5.5 
John Ross Catchable target rate 80.4% with a target quality score of 7.4 
Alex Erckson Catchable target rate 74.3% with a target quality score of 4.9 

Tate had the worst amount of catchable targets and quality thrown balls. As another poster pointed out he became the throw it up and pray outlet for our QB's this season. Basically John Ross squandered the best opportunities to make things happen and everyone else kind of did what they could with Tate getting the worst of the balls.

Thank you.

What's a target quality score?

[fredtoast]

(12-31-2019, 11:31 AM)Au165 Wrote: This isn't based in fact what so ever. He get's 10 inches less separation that Tyler Boyd. The difference is their average depth of target is over 3 yards different with Tate having much deeper average depth of targets. That difference in average depth of target leads to a full point difference in target quality rating from Boyd to Tate (scores ball placement, 6 is average Tate's was 4.4 Boyd's was 5.5). What is interesting is Dalton's target rating as a whole was 7.4, but was heavily bolstered by shorter passes where he was far above league average in accuracy and then fell off a cliff as he got deeper down the field.

Basically, what the actual data shows us is that Tate was thrown a lot of horrible balls that were uncatchable downfield. When they were catchable however he came down with an insanely high rate of them. His separation is really not any worse than Tyler Boyd (who has a really good contested catch rate BTW), but Boyd benefited from more accurately thrown balls at a shorter depth of target.

Tate was throw tougher passes because he had less separation.

WRs that can get open get easier passes to catch.  That is why they have higher catch rates.

Show us the contested catch rate so we can see Tate's "insanely high rate" compared to our other WRs.

[Au165]

(12-31-2019, 12:09 PM)TJHoushmandzadeh Wrote: Thank you.

What's a target quality score?

It's essentially is a score that identifies opportunity to make plays. It prioritizes catchable targets at depth over uncatchable or low depth targets. It's a gauge of opportunity so the higher the score the more productive you should be. It's why Ross's score is so high he had a ton of catchable deep targets, however he simply did not take advantage of them. 

[impactplaya]

Some people here watch the game but don't
See the game..
Tate made so many catches that Erickson Ross
Or Boyd couldn't make. He had to completely extend
His body then make the complete catch.
And if the last offseason is indication he should be even
Better in 2020.
Hopefully ZT can actually figure out how to use
Him In the.redzone

[Au165]

(12-31-2019, 12:15 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Tate was throw tougher passes because he had less separation.

WRs that can get open get easier passes to catch.  That is why they have higher catch rates.

Show us the contested catch rate so we can see Tate's "insanely high rate" compared to our other WRs.

His contested catch rate was 39.6% good for 20th in the league. Boyd, who he only get's 10 inches less separation than has a 46.9% contested catch rate good for 12th in the league. Erickson and John Ross don't have enough contested catches to qualify. AJ Green for comparison only had 2 more inches of separation last year than Tate, but had a 66% contested catch rate good for 3rd in the NFL (That is why he is elite at what he does). Interesting to note Tate got 12% less catchable balls than AJ did last year with only 2 inches less separation.

They aren't tougher throws, they are simply bad throws. Auden Tate had a target accuracy of 6.23 Boyd 7.46 Erickson 6.86 and Ross 7.25. That score is basically if the ball is put in front of a receiver so that they can catch the ball in stride. As I continued to say his issues are the types of balls he was getting.

One other random note, John Ross has the highest drop percentage of anyone in the NFL...so that's cool I guess.

[Whatever]

(12-31-2019, 11:31 AM)Au165 Wrote: This isn't based in fact what so ever. He get's 10 inches less separation that Tyler Boyd. The difference is their average depth of target is over 3 yards different with Tate having much deeper average depth of targets. That difference in average depth of target leads to a full point difference in target quality rating from Boyd to Tate (scores ball placement, 6 is average Tate's was 4.4 Boyd's was 5.5). What is interesting is Dalton's target rating as a whole was 7.4, but was heavily bolstered by shorter passes where he was far above league average in accuracy and then fell off a cliff as he got deeper down the field.

Basically, what the actual data shows us is that Tate was thrown a lot of horrible balls that were uncatchable downfield. When they were catchable however he came down with an insanely high rate of them. His separation is really not any worse than Tyler Boyd (who has a really good contested catch rate BTW), but Boyd benefited from more accurately thrown balls at a shorter depth of target.

GPS measurements on seperation do not translate to "open".  If you're running a comeback route and the defender is 1 yard behind you, you're open.  If he's one yard in front of you, you're not.  It's a tool, but doesn't give anything close to the full picture.  As you pointed out later, Boyd's targets are typically closer to the LoS, where there are more defenders and he has less time to generate seperation.  

The target distance argument also completely falls apart because of the red zone.  Tate caught only 5 of 14 red zone targets for 35 yards and 1 TD.  If it was a target distance issue, we would see a trend similar to Ross last year where he had a high catch rate in the red zone, but a poor catch rate between the 20's.  With Tate, the opposite is true.

 

[fredtoast]

(12-31-2019, 12:22 PM)Au165 Wrote: They aren't tougher throws, they are simply bad throws. Auden Tate had a target accuracy of 6.23 Boyd 7.46 Erickson 6.86 and Ross 7.25. That score is basically if the ball is put in front of a receiver so that they can catch the ball in stride. As I continued to say his issues are the types of balls he was getting.

It does not make any sense to say that the same QB would just randomly throw better to some receivers than others.  Also based on your definition an intentional "back shoulder" throw would not be considered accurate even though that is exactly where the QB has to put it.

However receivers who run more exact routes and are in the proper place get easier passes to catch.  A receiver who does not run an exact route makes a catchable pass uncatchable because he is not in the right spot.

Also receivers who get open create bigger targets.  Receivers who can't get open get more jump balls or low balls because the QB's throws have to be away from the defender.

If a QB has accuracy issues I think it should effect all receivers the same.  So the difference in the throws has more to do with the receiver than the QB.  The one exception would be the WR who runs a lot more deep patterns but I don't remember tate being the target of a lot of bombs.

[Au165]

(12-31-2019, 12:31 PM)Whatever Wrote: GPS measurements on seperation do not translate to "open".  If you're running a comeback route and the defender is 1 yard behind you, you're open.  If he's one yard in front of you, you're not.  It's a tool, but doesn't give anything close to the full picture.  As you pointed out later, Boyd's targets are typically closer to the LoS, where there are more defenders and he has less time to generate seperation.  

The target distance argument also completely falls apart because of the red zone.  Tate caught only 5 of 14 red zone targets for 35 yards and 1 TD.  If it was a target distance issue, we would see a trend similar to Ross last year where he had a high catch rate in the red zone, but a poor catch rate between the 20's.  With Tate, the opposite is true.

 

You realize breaking off a comeback and getting a yard of separation is creating it right? If you break off a comeback and he is a yard in front of you then you need to be benched because that is a sight adjustment and it turns into a 9. Luckily I have looked through half the games worth of tracking data on the field and no comebacks were ran so we don't have to worry about that. The reality is most his routes were out rotues, go routes and slants. Separation on a go ball is moot because he is a jump ball receiver he isn't running by guys he is going up, the data shows the ball was not put into play enough for him to do that.

While he had 14 targets inside 20, the question is how many were catchable? 

[Au165]

(12-31-2019, 12:36 PM)fredtoast Wrote: It does not make any sense to say that the same QB would just randomly throw better to some receivers than others.  Also based on your definition an intentional "back shoulder" throw would not be considered accurate even though that is exactly where the QB has to put it.

However receivers who run more exact routes and are in the proper place get easier passes to catch.  A receiver who does not run an exact route makes a catchable pass uncatchable because he is not in the right spot.

Also receivers who get open create bigger targets.  Receivers who can't get open get more jump balls or low balls because the QB's throws have to be away from the defender.

If a QB has accuracy issues I think it should effect all receivers the same.  So the difference in the throws has more to do with the receiver than the QB.  The one exception would be the WR who runs a lot more deep patterns but I don't remember tate being the target of a lot of bombs.

It does when you take into account route trees. Tate's tree consisted mainly of out routes and Go balls with some slants. Dalton's accuracy throwing the go ball is not good and opposite has out routes have always been a struggle with his arm. 

A back shoulder throw would be catchable but would not provide run after catch you are correct. The issue is his uncatchable rate was so high most of those throws down field were air mailed out of the sideline.

He obviously did run a lot of deep routes his average depth of target was 12.4 yards down field good for 38th highest in the NFL. As I said his depth of target was 3 yards deeper than Boyds and 4.l5 yards deeper than Erickson. 

[Au165]

I'd like to once again bring up, Auden Tate had a 70.8 PFF rating. So aside from all the data I am trying to give people, a service that actually watched him play is also telling you he was good at his job. The advanced stats thing is going to be a losing effort as people are going to keep nagging about this or that so I'll shelve that for a second, Although I would like to point out Mike Williams gets less separation in LA but gets more catchable balls and is producing because of it. If you turn on the tape you get a guy who shields defenders and makes contested catches, it's plain as day on tape. You got a guy that if given more opportunity would have had a bigger impact but was performing at a level of alot of WR's who are much faster and much higher regarded (Fuller/Hilton/Brown/Sanders/ETC.)

Somewhere this has turned into people acting like I am telling you he is the next AJ Green. What I am saying is that Auden Tate with a full season and more opportunity with catchable balls can be a 1k reciever in this league. People saying he is a 3 or 4 at best are laughable as there is nothing backing that up other that "needs more separation/speed" which his actual production does not back up.

[fredtoast]

(12-31-2019, 12:53 PM)Au165 Wrote: I'd like to once again bring up, Auden Tate had a 70.8 PFF rating. So aside from all the data I am trying to give people, a service that actually watched him play is also telling you he was good at his job.

The same people who said Andy Dalton ha a better season last year (2018) than 2015?

[Au165]

(12-31-2019, 01:01 PM)fredtoast Wrote: The same people who said Andy Dalton ha a better season last year (2018) than 2015?

Box scores don't always tell the whole story, especially with QBs. Things like interceptable passes that don't get caught, bad throws that a receiver makes a great play on, sacks a QB takes that are on them, catchable balls that WR's drop. I wouldn't be surprised if 2018 was a better season for him than 2015 because he was doing it with much less help around him.

[impactplaya]

(12-31-2019, 12:53 PM)Au165 Wrote: I'd like to once again bring up, Auden Tate had a 70.8 PFF rating. So aside from all the data I am trying to give people, a service that actually watched him play is also telling you he was good at his job. The advanced stats thing is going to be a losing effort as people are going to keep nagging about this or that so I'll shelve that for a second, Although I would like to point out Mike Williams gets less separation in LA but gets more catchable balls and is producing because of it. If you turn on the tape you get a guy who shields defenders and makes contested catches, it's plain as day on tape. You got a guy that if given more opportunity would have had a bigger impact but was performing at a level of alot of WR's who are much faster and much higher regarded (Fuller/Hilton/Brown/Sanders/ETC.)

Somewhere this has turned into people acting like I am telling you he is the next AJ Green. What I am saying is that Auden Tate with a full season and more opportunity with catchable balls can be a 1k reciever in this league. People saying he is a 3 or 4 at best are laughable as there is nothing backing that up other that "needs more separation/speed" which his actual production does not back up.

Tates 14.0 ypc average is intresting when you consider 
Rarely was he able to actually catch a ball In full stride 
And just tuck the ball and go.
So many times I seen Tate have to extend body secure ball for a 1st down 
His route tree should expand this year 

[Au165]

(12-31-2019, 01:29 PM)impactplaya Wrote: Tates 14.0 ypc average is intresting when you consider 
Rarely was he able to actually catch a ball In full stride 
And just tuck the ball and go.
So many times I seen Tate have to extend body secure ball for a 1st down 
His route tree should expand this year 

Turn on the Buffalo tape. He played against one of the best young corners in the game and had his best game of the year. Not just that but look at the HORRIBLE ball placement throughout that game. Baltimore was another game where the whole game was him making leaping catches that were just not placed well.

[impactplaya]

(12-31-2019, 01:35 PM)Au165 Wrote: Turn on the Buffalo tape. He played against one of the best young corners in the game and had his best game of the year. Not just that but look at the HORRIBLE ball placement throughout that game. Baltimore was another game where the whole game was him making leaping catches that were just not placed well.

Tate had a string of games where he was averaging 65 yards a game. Prohected over 16 games that's 1,000 yards 
The fact he went from being Lewis favorite practice squad player to a legit 1st down machine says alot.
I think he could run the same routes Eifert did back in 2015.
Stick routes....skinny posts.....
You simply can't teach size.
Hes a mismatch if used correctly 

[*bengalfan74*]

(12-31-2019, 12:53 PM)Au165 Wrote: I'd like to once again bring up, Auden Tate had a 70.8 PFF rating. So aside from all the data I am trying to give people, a service that actually watched him play is also telling you he was good at his job. The advanced stats thing is going to be a losing effort as people are going to keep nagging about this or that so I'll shelve that for a second, Although I would like to point out Mike Williams gets less separation in LA but gets more catchable balls and is producing because of it. If you turn on the tape you get a guy who shields defenders and makes contested catches, it's plain as day on tape. You got a guy that if given more opportunity would have had a bigger impact but was performing at a level of alot of WR's who are much faster and much higher regarded (Fuller/Hilton/Brown/Sanders/ETC.)

Somewhere this has turned into people acting like I am telling you he is the next AJ Green. What I am saying is that Auden Tate with a full season and more opportunity with catchable balls can be a 1k reciever in this league. People saying he is a 3 or 4 at best are laughable as there is nothing backing that up other that "needs more separation/speed" which his actual production does not back up.

People get an idea locked in their head and it's final, there's no changing their mind. They hear announcers saying separation, separation, separation, 25X during a game, stretching the field, deep threat, blah, blah. Then they think if a guy can't out run a gazelle he can't possibly be good. To hell with what the numbers say.

And people get to caught up in labels. It doesn't matter if he's a 2, 3, 4, or 5. If he gets the job done I don't care if people wanna label him a 17.