From Worst to... (The Last 20 Years)

[Wes Mantooth]

Ok, so I figured I'd look at the last 20 years of how the teams who finished last, and/or had the #1 pick, fared the following years.  I figured that this could maybe serve as a decent talking point, and could provide some details. I've tried to compile a lot of different stats without going absolutely nuts and creating a wall of words. 

So I'm going to basically list the records of each team for the following season, then a few different numbers, and lastly, I'll list out each team who finished .500 or above and some info.  Here it goes....

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Year - Team --- Loss-Win-Tie *** (Misc. Note)

2000 - Browns --- 3-13

2001 - Chargers --- 5-11 *** (Traded pick)

2002 - Texans --- 4-12 *** (Expansion)

2003 - Bengals --- 8-8

2004 - Chargers --- 12-4

2005 - 49'ers --- 4-12

2006 - Texans --- 6-10

2007 - Raiders --- 4-12

2008 - Dolphins --- 11-5

2009 - Lions --- 2-14

2010 - Rams --- 7-9

2011 - Panthers --- 6-10

2012 - Colts --- 11-5

2013 - Chiefs --- 11-5

2014 - Texans --- 9-7

2015 - Bucaneers --- 6-10

2016 - Rams --- 4-12

2017 - Browns --- 0-16

2018 - Browns --- 7-8-1

2019 - Cardinals --- 5-9-1

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Notes

--- The Average Winning % of these teams is .394 (125-193-2).  That puts the average win total at 6.5 games.

--- 4 teams made the playoffs. (20%)

--- Not a single team won a playoff game.

--- 5 of the 6 (83%) winning teams (.500 or above) had a new Head Coach.

--- 6 of of the 6 (100%) winning teams had at least one new Coordinator.

--- 4 of the 6 (67%) winning teams had a new GM.

--- 6 of the 6 winning teams had at least 2 of the following: New coach, new GM, new OC, new DC

--- 5 of the 6 winning teams had at least 3 of the following: New coach, new GM, new OC, new DC

--- Only 1 of the winning teams (16%) started a rookie QB. (Andrew Luck - Colts)

--- Only 1 rookie QB team won more than 7 games.

---The last coach to finish dead last his 1st year that made it to year 2 with most of staff then proceeded to go 0-16 in year 2. (Hue J)

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Successful Examples

2003 - Bengals New Coach (Marvin Lewis)-New DC (Leslie Frazier)-Vet QB (Jon Kitna)
2004 - Chargers - New GM (AJ Smith)-New DC (Wade Phillips)-Vet QB (Drew Brees)
2008 - Dolphins - New Coach (Tony Sparono)-New GM (Bill Parcells)-New OC (Dan Henning)-New DC (Paul Pasqualoni)-Vet QB (Chad Pennington)
2012 - Colts - New Coach (Chuck Pagnano)-New GM (Ryan Grigson)-New OC (Bruce Arians)-New DC (Greg Manusky)-Rookie QB (Andrew Luck)
2013 - Chiefs - New Coach (Andy Reid)-New GM (John Dorsey)-New OC (Doug Pederson)-New DC (Bob Sutton)-Vet QB (Alex Smith)
2014 - Texans - New Coach (Bill Obrien)-New DC (Romeo Crennel)-Vet QB (Ryan Fitzpatrick)

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[grampahol]

I'm always a fan of catching lightning in a bottle. In fact I have several bottles of it sitting on the shelf behind me. No wait...I drank it all a few years back before sobering up.. 

[Wes Mantooth]

If we go into this year as follows...

Same GM
Same Head Coach
Same OC
Same DC
Rookie QB
Limited FA activity

Then I would put our chance at 8 wins or above at about .0000001%.

We need at least one new coordinator, if not two. It sends a terrible message if you retain your GM, HC and then both coordinators. There would be no accountability, and that's what allows a losing culture to permeate through the entire building. It simply cannot happen.

We obviously need to, for once, be agressive and proactive in free agency. You can't stand pat with your league worst roster and expect one pick to magically elevate you immediately into contention.

And for those who are already guaranteeing at least 9 wins, or thinking that we're a sleeping giant, without yet seeing what we do, then I have to say you seem a tad delusional.

This franchise has a lot of work ahead of it. And chances are, even with a couple new bodies, this is a 2-6 win team. They really need some immediate changes to approach, with a little luck, to expect much more. The draft alone will nort save them. And a flaming turd pile of Benjarvis Green-Ellis, AJ Hawk, James Harrison, Nate Clements isnt going to get it done this year.

My 2 cents: Seriously temper your expectations.

[THE PISTONS]

(12-31-2019, 05:51 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Ok, so I figured I'd look at the last 20 years of how the teams who finished last, and/or had the #1 pick, fared the following years.  I figured that this could maybe serve as a decent talking point, and could provide some details. I've tried to compile a lot of different stats without going absolutely nuts and creating a wall of words. 

So I'm going to basically list the records of each team for the following season, then a few different numbers, and lastly, I'll list out each team who finished .500 or above and some info.  Here it goes....

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Year - Team --- Loss-Win-Tie *** (Misc. Note)

2000 - Browns --- 3-13

2001 - Chargers --- 5-11 *** (Traded pick)

2002 - Texans --- 4-12 *** (Expansion)

2003 - Bengals --- 8-8

2004 - Chargers --- 12-4

2005 - 49'ers --- 4-12

2006 - Texans --- 6-10

2007 - Raiders --- 4-12

2008 - Dolphins --- 11-5

2009 - Lions --- 2-14

2010 - Rams --- 7-9

2011 - Panthers --- 6-10

2012 - Colts --- 11-5

2013 - Chiefs --- 11-5

2014 - Texans --- 9-7

2015 - Bucaneers --- 6-10

2016 - Rams --- 4-12

2017 - Browns --- 0-16

2018 - Browns --- 7-8-1

2019 - Cardinals --- 5-9-1

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Notes

--- The Average Winning % of these teams is .394 (125-193-2).  That puts the average win total at 6.5 games.

--- 4 teams made the playoffs. (20%)

--- Not a single team won a playoff game.

--- 5 of the 6 (83%) winning teams (.500 or above) had a new Head Coach.

--- 6 of of the 6 (100%) winning teams had at least one new Coordinator.

--- 4 of the 6 (67%) winning teams had a new GM.

--- 6 of the 6 winning teams had at least 2 of the following: New coach, new GM, new OC, new DC

--- 5 of the 6 winning teams had at least 3 of the following: New coach, new GM, new OC, new DC

--- Only 1 of the winning teams (16%) started a rookie QB. (Andrew Luck - Colts)

--- Only 1 rookie QB team won more than 7 games.

---The last coach to finish dead last his 1st year that made it to year 2 with most of staff then proceeded to go 0-16 in year 2. (Hue J)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Successful Examples

2003 - Bengals New Coach (Marvin Lewis)-New DC (Leslie Frazier)-Vet QB (Jon Kitna)
2004 - Chargers - New GM (AJ Smith)-New DC (Wade Phillips)-Vet QB (Drew Brees)
2008 - Dolphins - New Coach (Tony Sparono)-New GM (Bill Parcells)-New OC (Dan Henning)-New DC (Paul Pasqualoni)-Vet QB (Chad Pennington)
2012 - Colts - New Coach (Chuck Pagnano)-New GM (Ryan Grigson)-New OC (Bruce Arians)-New DC (Greg Manusky)-Rookie QB (Andrew Luck)
2013 - Chiefs - New Coach (Andy Reid)-New GM (John Dorsey)-New OC (Doug Pederson)-New DC (Bob Sutton)-Vet QB (Alex Smith)
2014 - Texans - New Coach (Bill Obrien)-New DC (Romeo Crennel)-Vet QB (Ryan Fitzpatrick)

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Yeah...because bad teams in the NFL are generally not 1 player away. We need to upgrade like 25-30% of the roster. Burrow wont do that.

[t3r3e3]

(12-31-2019, 06:09 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: If we go into this year as follows...

Same GM
Same Head Coach
Same OC
Same DC
Rookie QB
Limited FA activity

Then I would put our chance at 8 wins or above at about .0000001%.

We need at least one new coordinator, if not two. It sends a terrible message if you retain your GM, HC and then both coordinators. There would be no accountability, and that's what allows a losing culture to permeate through the entire building. It simply cannot happen.

We obviously need to, for once, be agressive and proactive in free agency. You can't stand pat with your league worst roster and expect one pick to magically elevate you immediately into contention.

And for those who are already guaranteeing at least 9 wins, or thinking that we're a sleeping giant, without yet seeing what we do, then I have to say you seem a tad delusional.

This franchise has a lot of work ahead of it. And chances are, even with a couple new bodies, this is a 2-6 win team. They really need some immediate changes to approach, with a little luck, to expect much more. The draft alone will nort save them. And a flaming turd pile of Benjarvis Green-Ellis, AJ Hawk, James Harrison, Nate Clements isnt going to get it done this year.

My 2 cents: Seriously temper your expectations.

When the principal owner/GM is a career loser unwilling to change his methods, it stands to reason that a loser’s mentality will permeate throughout the organization. Ownership cares about keeping overhead costs low, employing family members, and making a decent profit each year. Winning football games is a secondary pursuit.

[GreenCornBengal]

(12-31-2019, 07:24 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: Yeah...because bad teams in the NFL are generally not 1 player away. We need to upgrade like 25-30% of the roster. Burrow wont do that.

In very VERY rare cases, guys can elevate the players around them. Just look at the transition in the Ravens when switching from Flacco to Jackson.

IDK if Burrow is the type of QB to elevate the entire offense, but if he is, you can 'upgrade' 10% of your roster with one player.

[THE PISTONS]

(12-31-2019, 07:37 PM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: In very VERY rare cases, guys can elevate the players around them. Just look at the transition in the Ravens when switching from Flacco to Jackson.

IDK if Burrow is the type of QB to elevate the entire offense, but if he is, you can 'upgrade' 10% of your roster with one player.

The Ravens win SBs and playoff games routinely. They have great management and coaching.

I struggle to think of a scenario where a pick turned around a franchise like ours. Stafford going to the Lions is the closest parallel I can draw.

[GreenCornBengal]

(12-31-2019, 07:41 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: The Ravens win SBs and playoff games routinely. They have great management and coaching.

I struggle to think of a scenario where a pick turned around a franchise like ours. Stafford going to the Lions is the closest parallel I can draw.

With a 'franchise like ours' I guess there is really no hope then eh?  :paul:

[THE PISTONS]

(12-31-2019, 07:37 PM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: In very VERY rare cases, guys can elevate the players around them. Just look at the transition in the Ravens when switching from Flacco to Jackson.

IDK if Burrow is the type of QB to elevate the entire offense, but if he is, you can 'upgrade' 10% of your roster with one player.

Burrow is going to need developed too. Hes going to need the right plays called.

People act like we're adding Peyton Manning in his prime.

The narrative going into the season was that a young coach would turn us around too. That failed.

As Bengal fans...we look for magic solutions.

[THE PISTONS]

(12-31-2019, 07:43 PM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: With a 'franchise like ours' I guess there is really no hope then eh?  :paul:

The past 30 years of results would say there isnt much. It's a league built for parity though.

The 49ers turned things around in a free years. It's not impossible.

If we added a gm like Dorsey I'd feel better.

[Shake n Blake]

By parting with Dalton, Green, Glenn and Kirkpatrick, we could have upwards of $100 million in cap space to reshape this roster. It needs to be done. Will it? Probably not. I also agree that it's a bad look to continue on with a fully intact coaching staff after an all-time bad season. Unless we were tanking, which I doubt this team is bold or smart enough to attempt.

Burrow looks like a fantastic prospect, so it'd be a shame for this FO to half-ass everything else and put all the pressure on a rookie QB and - what looks like - an inept coaching staff. Without a proactive FO and winning culture, Burrow will just be yet another talented player gone to waste in Cincy.

[Luvnit2]

TY Wes, Great Research, depressing but factual.

I know ML improved 6 games from previous year when he was hired. He went from 2 wins to 8, most gave him no credit, but very hard to do.

I am going to Vegas for draft, appears I should put a lot of money on Bengals to win 6 or less games in 2019.

But, I am optimist and will look to get better odds. I think I can make a lot of money with 8 or more wins in 2019. I just have a hunch, but I want to see the preseason shale out too, not just for us but the teams we play.

[*jason*]

(12-31-2019, 07:37 PM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: In very VERY rare cases, guys can elevate the players around them. Just look at the transition in the Ravens when switching from Flacco to Jackson.

IDK if Burrow is the type of QB to elevate the entire offense, but if he is, you can 'upgrade' 10% of your roster with one player.

They completely changed the offense, and built it around Lamar Jackson's skill set. That's not elevating players around you, that's coaching. Here we like to do the square peg and round hole kind of thing.... You know; James Harrison should just play the same position that Nick Vigil does now.