Veteran Andy > Rookie Joe Burrow

[Wes Mantooth]

So, I've seen a lot of people list Joe Burrow has a huge upgrade for next year, when trying to make the case for vast improvement in 2020. Sorry guys, but that's not at all likely or probable.

Long-term, yeah we all think and hope that Burrow will be a upgrade. Hopefully a tremendous one. But year 1, right out of the gate, I'm not sure how or why this idea is floating around so much. Even more puzzling, it's often represented as a stone-cold fact. i.e. "We'll have Burrow next year so that's a reason for 2020 improvement."

Fwiw, I wanted to title this as greater or equal to, but that symbol escapes my tablet. But the equal to portion of the equation... that's the best case scenario in this comparison. The best case scenario for a rookie QB, and an oustanding season, is that of at or near an average starting QB in the NFL. Which is what Andy is.

None of this is to say that Burrow won't make some throws that Andy can't or didn't. I'm sure he can and will. And none of this is to say our offense can't or won't improve either. It very well may. And as a result Burrow very will cohld post significantly better numbers.

But as a position grade, or evaluation or comparison, with simply taking everything else out of the equation (OL, talent, coaching, etc.) I don't know how this argument is easily made, much less won. If you want or choose to believe this team is going to see a significant amount of immediate improvemenf then I think you need to find reasons other than Burrow is already an upgrade.

I'm not even a big Andy fan, never have been. I've always considered him average. And I'm excited about Burrow and the fact we're finally getting a potential elite level QB. I hope he is great someday. I just don't expect that this year.

[Fan_in_Kettering]

(01-04-2020, 01:53 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: So, I've seen a lot of people list Joe Burrow has a huge upgrade for next year, when trying to make the case for vast improvement in 2020. Sorry guys, but that's not at all likely or probable.

Long-term, yeah we all think and hope that Burrow will be a upgrade. Hopefully a tremendous one. But year 1, right out of the gate, I'm not sure how or why this idea is floating around so much. Even more puzzling, it's often represented as a stone-cold fact. i.e. "We'll have Burrow next year so that's a reason for 2020 improvement."

Fwiw, I wanted to title this as greater or equal to, but that symbol escapes my tablet. But the equal to portion of the equation... that's the best case scenario in this comparison. The best case scenario for a rookie QB, and an oustanding season, is that of at or near an average starting QB in the NFL. Which is what Andy is.

None of this is to say that Burrow won't make some throws that Andy can't or didn't. I'm sure he can and will. And none of this is to say our offense can't or won't improve either. It very well may. And as a result Burrow very will cohld post significantly better numbers.

But as a position grade, or evaluation or comparison, with simply taking everything else out of the equation (OL, talent, coaching, etc.) I don't know how this argument is easily made, much less won. If you want or choose to believe this team is going to see a significant amount of immediate improvemenf then I think you need to find reasons other than Burrow is already an upgrade.

I'm not even a big Andy fan, never have been. I've always considered him average. And I'm excited about Burrow and the fact we're finally getting a potential elite level QB. I hope he is great someday. I just don't expect that this year.

This post drips with awesome sauce. Finally some sanity...

...and you can download MathType if you want the “greater than or equal to” symbol.

[Wes Mantooth]

Just some food for thought....

Andrew Luck is the ONLY rookie QB in the last 20 years to join a last place and finish .500 in his first season.

His completion % was 54. He threw 24 TDs vs 18 picks. His rating was 76.5.

Here are his ranks among starters...

Rating - 26th
Comp % - 31st
Yards - 7th (5th most attempts)
TDs - 14th
Int - 30th


The only guy to do it, one of the best prospects to come ouf this decade, and those are his numbers... He was average at best.

[Nicomo Cosca]

Andy won 2 freaking games this season.

If Burrow wins a handful next season that’s already a huge upgrade.

[fredtoast]

I think you are being a little too restrictive with your sample size.  I think it is more informative to look at all really bad team instead of just the one single last place team.  There usually isn't a significant difference between the last place team and any 5 win team.  So if you look at 5 win teams over the last 15 years you see a few QBs that come in and play at least .500 ball

'05 Vince Young goes to a 4-12 Titans team goes 8-5 as a starter.
'05 Kyle Orton goes to a 5-11 Bears team and wins 10 games as a starter taking them to the playoffs
'08 Joe Flacco goes to a 5-11 Ravens team and wins 11 games as a starter taking them to the playoffs
'08 Matt Ryan goes to a 4-12 Falcon team and wins 11 games as a starter taking them to the playoffs
'11 Andy Dalton goes to a 4-12 Bengal team and wins 9 games as a starter taking them to the playoffs
'12 Robert Griffen goes to a 5-11 Jets team and goes 9-6 as a starter.
'14 Teddy Bridgewater goes to a 5-10-1 Vikings team and goes 6-6 as a starter.
'16 Dak Prescott goes to a 4-12 Cowboys team and goes 13-3 as a starter taking them to the playoffs
'19 Gardner Minshew goes to a 5-ll Jaguars team and goes 6-6 as starter.

The last time the Steelrs had a losing record (6-10) they drafted a rookie QB who went 13-0 as a starter

[Fullrock]

(01-04-2020, 01:53 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: So, I've seen a lot of people list Joe Burrow has a huge upgrade for next year, when trying to make the case for vast improvement in 2020. Sorry guys, but that's not at all likely or probable.

Long-term, yeah we all think and hope that Burrow will be a upgrade. Hopefully a tremendous one. But year 1, right out of the gate, I'm not sure how or why this idea is floating around so much. Even more puzzling, it's often represented as a stone-cold fact. i.e. "We'll have Burrow next year so that's a reason for 2020 improvement."

Fwiw, I wanted to title this as greater or equal to, but that symbol escapes my tablet. But the equal to portion of the equation... that's the best case scenario in this comparison. The best case scenario for a rookie QB, and an oustanding season, is that of at or near an average starting QB in the NFL. Which is what Andy is.

None of this is to say that Burrow won't make some throws that Andy can't or didn't. I'm sure he can and will. And none of this is to say our offense can't or won't improve either. It very well may. And as a result Burrow very will cohld post significantly better numbers.

But as a position grade, or evaluation or comparison, with simply taking everything else out of the equation (OL, talent, coaching, etc.) I don't know how this argument is easily made, much less won.  If you want or choose to believe this team is going to see a significant amount of immediate improvemenf then I think you need to find reasons other than Burrow is already an upgrade.

I'm not even a big Andy fan, never have been. I've always considered him average.  And I'm excited about Burrow and the fact we're finally getting a potential elite level QB. I hope he is great someday.  I just don't expect that this year.

Dalton's QB rating was 78.3 this year which was 39th in the league. His adjusted QBR was 39.8 which was 28 out of 30 QB's rated. I'd say there is no where to go but up next year.

[Wes Mantooth]

(01-04-2020, 02:31 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Andy won 2 freaking games this season.

If Burrow wins a handful next season that’s already a huge upgrade.

In wins... It's an upgrade in wins. Wins are a team stat.

You are more than welcome to your own opinion. If you think he steps in and is right away an upgrade then that's fine.

In my opinion, and experience, that's some seriously wishful thinking. 

[N_B]

(01-04-2020, 02:43 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: In wins... It's an upgrade in wins. Wins are a team stat.

You are more than welcome to your own opinion. If you think he steps in and is right away an upgrade then that's fine.

In my opinion, and experience, that's some seriously wishful thinking. 

So you expect Burrow to be statistically worse than 90% of quarterbacks in 2020? I would disagree

[Fullrock]

(01-04-2020, 02:43 PM)Fullrock Wrote: Dalton's QB rating was 78.3 this year which was 39th in the league. His adjusted QBR was 39.8 which was 28 out of 30 QB's rated. I'd say there is no where to go but up next year.

In fact, I'll put a wager on Burrow having a better QBR, better adjusted QBR, better TD to INT ratio, and wins more games than Dalton did this year. Any takers?

[Wes Mantooth]

(01-04-2020, 02:43 PM)Fullrock Wrote: Dalton's QB rating was 78.3 this year which was 39th in the league. His adjusted QBR was 39.8 which was 28 out of 30 QB's rated. I'd say there is no where to go but up next year.

Again, like I said in the post, the numbers very well improve. The talent, coaching, production may all improve.

I'm strictly speaking of the QB position. One QB vs. the other.

My take is that a veteran Andy is greater or equal to that of a rookie Joe Burrow. It's that simple.

If you really want to use your numbers, using the offense and everything around thus years team, then you have to insert Joe Burrow into that scenario.

Joe Burrow 2020 on the 2019 team. Same everything. Behind that bs line, with bs playcalling, a a sub 3.0 ypc running game for 75% of Andy's stats. No Green, etc.

Apparently you are of the believe we would have won more this year with Burrow. I am not.

To each their own...

[Benton]

Top five QBs generally go to really bad teams that hope throwing a QB onto the field will make them a good team.

We've got several good pieces on offense. If we can find a linebacker and either a dl-man or safety upgrade, were leaps and bounds over next year.

Andy or burrow will likely do better in 2020 just because the team is going to be better with guys developing and our last year first rounder coming back.

[Wes Mantooth]

(01-04-2020, 02:50 PM)Fullrock Wrote: In fact, I'll put a wager on Burrow having a better QBR, better adjusted QBR, better TD to INT ratio, and wins more games than Dalton did this year. Any takers?

None of that is relevant to the discussion. You can't just insert him on a improved roster, and becausevof improved stats, deem him the more capable QB.

[Big_Ern]

It can change in one year with good qb play. Just look at what Dalton was able to do as a rookie. I expect more from Burrow

[BrownAssClown]

(01-04-2020, 01:53 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: So, I've seen a lot of people list Joe Burrow has a huge upgrade for next year, when trying to make the case for vast improvement in 2020. Sorry guys, but that's not at all likely or probable.

Long-term, yeah we all think and hope that Burrow will be a upgrade. Hopefully a tremendous one. But year 1, right out of the gate, I'm not sure how or why this idea is floating around so much. Even more puzzling, it's often represented as a stone-cold fact. i.e. "We'll have Burrow next year so that's a reason for 2020 improvement."

Fwiw, I wanted to title this as greater or equal to, but that symbol escapes my tablet. But the equal to portion of the equation... that's the best case scenario in this comparison. The best case scenario for a rookie QB, and an oustanding season, is that of at or near an average starting QB in the NFL. Which is what Andy is.

None of this is to say that Burrow won't make some throws that Andy can't or didn't. I'm sure he can and will. And none of this is to say our offense can't or won't improve either. It very well may. And as a result Burrow very will cohld post significantly better numbers.

But as a position grade, or evaluation or comparison, with simply taking everything else out of the equation (OL, talent, coaching, etc.) I don't know how this argument is easily made, much less won.  If you want or choose to believe this team is going to see a significant amount of immediate improvemenf then I think you need to find reasons other than Burrow is already an upgrade.

I'm not even a big Andy fan, never have been. I've always considered him average.  And I'm excited about Burrow and the fact we're finally getting a potential elite level QB. I hope he is great someday.  I just don't expect that this year.

That's why I pointed out in another thread that it wouldn't surprise me if the front office brought back Andy for the final year of his contract to mentor our new franchise QB. I just hope no matter which way the FO handles the situation, they improve the offensive line to give whomever starts a better chance of being successful.

[*bengalfan74*]

(01-04-2020, 02:31 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Andy won 2 freaking games this season.

If Burrow wins a handful next season that’s already a huge upgrade.

Right

AD has a record of 4-23 I believe it is after the 4-1 start to 2018. 

Nobody in their right mind is expecting JB to come in here and go 14-2 his first season. It's going to be a process, it nearly always is. I'm on the fence about trading Dalton vs. starting him and letting JB learn, come in late in games etc.

My gut instinct is MB will be asking a Kings Ransom for AD and he's not gonna get it so I'm leaning AD is still on team next season.

[Wes Mantooth]

(01-04-2020, 02:48 PM)N_B Wrote: So you expect Burrow to be statistically worse than 90% of quarterbacks in 2020? 

Not at all. 

[fredtoast]

(01-04-2020, 02:43 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: In wins... It's an upgrade in wins. Wins are a team stat.

But YOU were the one who made this thread about wins instead of QB performance.

Otherwise we should be talking about Baker Mayfield going to an 0-16 team and posting a 93.7 rating with 27 tds in just 13 starts.

[N_B]

(01-04-2020, 02:54 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Not at all. 

Then...he’ll better than Dalton in 2020

[Fullrock]

(01-04-2020, 02:52 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: None of that is relevant to the discussion. You can't just insert him on a improved roster, and becausevof improved stats, deem him the more capable QB.

So then what is the point of your thread? You're trying to say veteran Dalton is greater than rookie Burrow but when people try to directly compare the two via Dalton's numbers this year vs Burrow's numbers next year it's irrelevant?

[Catmandude123]

(01-04-2020, 02:50 PM)Fullrock Wrote: In fact, I'll put a wager on Burrow having a better QBR, better adjusted QBR, better TD to INT ratio, and wins more games than Dalton did this year. Any takers?

I'd wager he doesn't throw three interceptions in less than a minute . I'd wager he won't lose his first four PO games. ETC....