Prediction: AJ Green Will be Back

[*ochocincos*]

(01-01-2020, 03:44 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: There's nothing safe about inking a 32 year old player with his recent history to a multi-year deal.  Front loaded or not, those are still cap dollars that could be spent elsewhere. Those are cap dollars you could use to front load other deals, or spend for immediate needs.

If we could get him on incentive laden deal then that would make the most sense, especially one at, say, 2 years. But I don't think that has any realistic chance of happening.

Like all players and all contracts, and especially for those that are maybe a guys last multi-year deal, it's all about the guaranteed money. The signing bonus. The security.

That's what he wants, and what it will take to lock him up. If you think he's going to ink something at 5-8 million dollar base, with loads of incentives then you're kidding yourself.

An incentive laden deal is typically short. A "prove it" one year deal is similar in the fact it won't work here. If he wanted a deal like that, which I don't think he does, he wants with a contender. For two reasons: 1.) A chance at a ring. 2.) The best chance to pad his stats to increase his value and/or collect incentives. We offer neither at this point.

Maybe I'm wrong and you're right, I just don't see any way any incentives ties him here.I think he wants his last "real" deal and all the security it comes with. And if he doesn't get it here then he'll take the alternative elsewhere.

To each their own, but if you want him then it comes with a boatload of risk. His last real AJ Green type of season was 2015. FIVE years ago. Frontload his deal, and I guess some will feel safe. I sure as hell don't though.

I'm with you.

I'd prefer to go after a WR actually in his prime if I'm going to pay $15+ mill a year for a WR.
Or go the route you mention of drafting a guy on Day 2/3 and maybe getting a mid-tier vet in the $5-8 mill range.
Maybe Robby Anderson or the like.

[BengalsBong]

(01-03-2020, 12:56 PM)Sled21 Wrote: Got a late start did ya??? 

Nope always loved football just rooted for the steelers when I was a kid you know when we are not swayed by bias and just like the strongest teams. Also rooted for Rice against the Bengals in the super bowl even tho the town was full of  Bengals fans. Switched to die hard Bengals fan in 1990 maybe I am the curse.

[grampahol]

What I want is for every player on this team to have the greatest season of their lives. That's what I want. I also want to have an absolutely free winning lotto ticket just land right in my hand and me standing there reading the winning numbers at the same time.
Unfortunately we don't always get everything we want.
Personally I don't care what they pay to players. I'll never see a dime of it so none of that matters to me. The only thing that matters to me is whether they can win games...period. I'm fine if they overpay and win or underpay and win. Either way none of it's coming out of my limited bank account.
If they overpay and lose? So what? It's not my money so at that point I don't care. I AM NOT the Cincinnati Bengals accountant and make no pretense of such. It's not AS IF if they lose I'm not familiar with rooting for a losing team. I have a ton of experience at doing that so I'm pretty used to it. So if they have another disastrous season and go 1-15 or 0-16 or 3-13 or whatever it's no skin off my nose. It's not what I want, but I'm definitely NOT paying to see it or listen to it. It's just a game played 16 days out of 349 other days. I'm not going to sit here sweating how Mike Brown and company squander money. I have other issues far more important to deal with.

[*jason*]

(01-03-2020, 02:05 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I'm with you.

I'd prefer to go after a WR actually in his prime if I'm going to pay $15+ mill a year for a WR.
Or go the route you mention of drafting a guy on Day 2/3 and maybe getting a mid-tier vet in the $5-8 mill range.
Maybe Robby Anderson or the like.

If Sammy Watkins is making 16, I doubt Robby Anderson will take 5-8 million.

[BoomerFan]

Spotrac thinks he's worth about 9 million a year, probably due to him missing time this season and last. Even if a team in the open market was going to overpay him it would be what, 12 million?

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cincinnati-bengals/aj-green-7719/market-value/

He'd be lucky to get the Franchise Tag ($18 million) where he could be paid very well to prove he's still got it. Alternately, any contract where he only takes a slight paycut to sign for at least 3 years with some guaranteed money would probably be a deal he should take.

Edit: Re-reading this thread I see this actually was already mentioned by Sunset

(01-01-2020, 11:20 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Somebody posted Sporttrac had AJs estimated value at around $9M/per.  If you don't think that the Bengals would be doing him a huge favor, by offering him 3 years at $12/per, then I might suggest that you might be out of touch with reality.  I don't see AJ getting "top tier" money, anywhere in the FA market.  Sure, some team might offer him $15M for a one year deal, but nothing close to what Julio Jones just got signed to.  As you already mentioned, his health is a serious question mark, and will have a bigger impact on his market value than many board regulars are ready to admit.

Simply put, he's worth more to the Bengals for the things he's accomplished in his career, than he is as a "hired hand" on any other team.

[*ochocincos*]

(01-04-2020, 04:19 PM)jason Wrote: If Sammy Watkins is making 16, I doubt Robby Anderson will take 5-8 million.

Fair point. We'll see.

[3wt]

I hope he is back, but I doubt it.

He wants to be paid like he's a top 5 guy (which he is when healthy)

But I'm pretty sure the FO will low ball him and either he'll walk or he'll show up late and not contribute like he can.

There's no benefit in making a guy feel like he's not truly valued by his team and it will be reflected in his performance - if he they franchise him.

This off season is critical. If they let Dalton go they'll have plenty of money to do something. They need to keep what's left of their core and sign some significant FAs at OL.



I've heard a report (not authoritative) that Burrow has voiced a reluctance to come here. Is there any truth to that?

[Nicomo Cosca]

(01-06-2020, 02:56 PM)3wt Wrote: I hope he is back, but I doubt it.

He wants to be paid like he's a top 5 guy (which he is when healthy)

But I'm pretty sure the FO will low ball him and either he'll walk or he'll show up late and not contribute like he can.

There's no benefit in making a guy feel like he's not truly valued by his team and it will be reflected in his performance - if he they franchise him.

This off season is critical. If they let Dalton go they'll have plenty of money to do something. They need to keep what's left of their core and sign some significant FAs at OL.



I've heard a report (not authoritative) that Burrow has voiced a reluctance to come here. Is there any truth to that?

I love AJ, but he’s not even close to top 5 anymore.

Also, what is the source of your last sentence? Sounds like bs to me.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(01-01-2020, 02:46 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: I could be wrong here (I hope I am) but I think AJ Green will come back on a multi-year deal. And I think it will be a contract in which many here will view as both risky, and as us over-paying.

Here's the why and the how I see this happening...

-If you watched AJ's interview from the other day it seemed a little "about-face" from the statements made just a weeks earlier, where a little frustration and anger seeped through. These most recent comments seemed more in-line with many made in the offseason. (Even Hoard made mention of this in a question to AJ.)

It could be my imagination, or this could all be player-speak and fluff. But in watching this and reading between the lines, I'm getting the feeling they are indeed still working on a deal. And I do believe/buy the idea that the Bengals, more often than not, like do this after the season. I think discussions already started ramping up again, and that's why AJ may have seemed a little more upbeat.

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-I think both Dalton and Glenn come off the books this season, resulting in 25+ mil in freed up cap space.

Andy wants a chance to start, as he should, and that's not happening here if Burrow is the pick. On the flip-side, I don't see Mike ponying up 18 mil for a backup even if Andy accepted the role of mentor. I think he's traded for late pick or us simply released.

If you've followed the saga that was Cordy Glenn this season then you know what a mess it was. Frankly, I'm shocked he wasn't cut mid-season. He's a high-priced cancer that's going into his final year. I just can't see any way he returns. I think he's simply released, as I can't imagine him having any trade value. (Best value for him was in-season to a desperate team with limited options.)

You may see another few cuts or trades too (Please, dump Bobby Hart's salary!!!!) Regardless, we're going to have a ton of cap space and dollars that need to be spent. Even before these freed up dollars we were projected to have a lot of room.

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-Mike will almost always spend in-house before being forced to splurge in free agency. That's how a guy like Bernard is making 5 mil per to rush for 200 yards a season. That's how Hart is making 7 mil. That's why they dumped a bunch of money, elite money, in Kirkpatrick's lap despite only having limited starting experience.

We need to spend a ton, and I think they'll look at extensions before considering free agency. A new deal for AJ and Mixon, then sprinkle in a couple other extensions, will bring them a lot closer to the floor.

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-Mike needs to sell tickets. Mike also needs a "star" wide receiver to pair with his new toy/savior Burrow.

As much as I love Boyd, he's not a #1. He's a very good #2. He's not your 6'4 blazing fast outside and deep threat. And as much as I was impressed by Tate, he's not going to move the needle in ticket sales or confindence.

I personally think the correct play is to stick with Boyd and Tate, draft a WR in the 3rd or 4th, and maybe look at a short-deal vet at 4-7 mil per to round out the corp. But again, that's not going to win over a lot of casual fans. Nor will it eat up as much cap space that needs to be spent.

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-I think AJ and his camp know everything I just said. This franchise wants and needs him. And this franchise will also pay him more and for longer than anywhere else.

It's mutually beneficial. He'll get more guarantees and security here than anywhere.

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Conclusion/Prediction....

Look for news this offseason like this: AJ Green signs for 4yrs/60 million.

I think it'll be somewhere in that neighborhood. Maybe 3 years, or maybe 5, but no tag, no trade, and no 2 year either. And I'd bet 4 or 5 years before 3. It will be longer than makes sense, extremely risky, yet somehow will make a lot of homers happy and confident.

I can hear it now...

"We got Joe Burrow, we get AJ Green back, we got Jonah Williams, we extended Mixon and we added a couple retreads or over the hill names!!! "

He's coming back, folks. 3-5 years @ no less than 12 mil and probably no more than 16. It'll happen...

Think so too, just too many questions at WR and he might want to play with Burrow and Burrow needs someone and when 
healthy AJ is one of the best. Still has to be a front loaded, incentive laden contract similar to the way they handled Eifert.

Probably going to pay too much, honestly I would just Tag the guy if it was me, he has been just as injured as Eifert was 
when we extended him with said incentive laden contract. Think something under the table is being reached and they 
wanted to make sure AJ was healthy going into the Offseason before offering him something.

Just think it will be too much money if the guy cannot stay healthy which has been the case.

Love AJ and what he has done here but we probably should move on. If we want to sign an expensive vet Receiver I would
go with Amari Cooper who has been somewhat healthy over his career.

[lone bengal]

I love A.J. as a person and player but I think the Bengals would be better of in the long term not resigning him. This team needs to get younger and rebuild, Green is 31 and hasn't been healthy in 3 years. If we sign Green to a big contract I doubt we will sign any young impact free agents. Green playing wins us a few more games. I'm fine with using the money elsewhere like on the Offensive line to protect Borrow and to fix this putrid defense. I put projecting the QB first over giving him weapons like an aging Green. A bad offensive line will ruin a QB faster than a lack of weapons. Boyd and company can hold it down for the time being.

[Luvnit2]

(01-06-2020, 10:36 PM)lone bengal Wrote: I love A.J. as a person and player but I think the Bengals would be better of in the long term not resigning him. This team needs to get younger and rebuild, Green is 31 and hasn't been healthy in 3 years. If we sign Green to a big contract I doubt we will sign any young impact free agents. Green playing wins us a few more games. I'm fine with using the money elsewhere like on the Offensive line to protect Borrow and to fix this putrid defense. I put projecting the QB first over giving him weapons like an aging Green. A bad offensive line will ruin a QB faster than a lack of weapons. Boyd and company can hold it down for the time being.

OK. let's say it is time for a rebuild.

Who else north of 30 years old needs to traded or cut?

Dunlap  Geno  Glenn *yes  Dre

Point is if we are going to rebuild, then all the old guys who are paid well also need to go if a true rebuild in my opinion

[*bengalfan74*]

I'm sure this has been posted, perhaps in this thread ? But anyways, over the last 4 seasons 64 games AJ has missed 29 of em, closing in on half. I just think it's to big a risk to invest anywhere near top money in him. Or franchise tag him.

If he'll take a prove it deal for 2-3 years do it. I doubt he will.

[bengaloo]

I think AJ is secretly Burrow's biggest supporter which is why he didnt come back this season even though he was practicing and Lapham was saying he looked incredible. He knew if he came back it may get us another win or two and we would lose out on Burrow

I cant imagine AJ expecting top 5 money at this stage in his career after the last 2 years of injuries. If so, I dont think he will get it here. Brown will pay him what hes worth and nothing more. If there is one single thing at all in this world the Brown's can do "pretty well" its not overpay for players that other teams would most likely overpay for. They do some stupid crap, or mostly stupid crap, but when it comes to blockbuster deals, they are pretty conservative about it for the most part.

Id like to see him here in about the 8-9 mil range with some incentives to earn more with good play and health.

[fredtoast]

Sammy Watkins was grossly overpaid. But he was 25 when he signed that deal. Green will be 32 when the 2020 season starts.

That makes a big difference.

[*jason*]

(01-07-2020, 08:07 PM)bengaloo Wrote: I think AJ is secretly Burrow's biggest supporter which is why he didnt come back this season even though he was practicing and Lapham was saying he looked incredible. He knew if he came back it may get us another win or two and we would lose out on Burrow

I cant imagine AJ expecting top 5 money at this stage in his career after the last 2 years of injuries. If so, I dont think he will get it here. Brown will pay him what hes worth and nothing more. If there is one single thing at all in this world the Brown's can do "pretty well" its not overpay for players that other teams would most likely overpay for. They do some stupid crap, or mostly stupid crap, but when it comes to blockbuster deals, they are pretty conservative about it for the most part.


Id like to see him here in about the 8-9 mil range with some incentives to earn more with good play and health.

I doubt they were in a bidding war for Bobby Hart or Giovanni Bernard. I don't think AJ will take a deal that isn't much higher than theirs.

[Housh]

Can we just be honest



The best deep passes AJ Green got his whole
Career were thrown by Mohammad Sanu. He can go nowhere but up

[Nicomo Cosca]

(01-08-2020, 01:25 AM)Housh Wrote: Can we just be honest



The best deep passes AJ Green got his whole
Career were thrown by Mohammad Sanu. He can go nowhere but up

Ok that one made me laugh.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(01-07-2020, 07:54 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: I'm sure this has been posted, perhaps in this thread ? But anyways, over the last 4 seasons 64 games AJ has missed 29 of em, closing in on half. I just think it's to big a risk to invest anywhere near top money in him. Or franchise tag him.

If he'll take a prove it deal for 2-3 years do it. I doubt he will.

Agreed and well wherever he goes he will need to take all of this into account. 

Lately AJ has been as banged up as Eifert damn near. Eifert actually played last year, all be it, not the same player.

[Wes Mantooth]

One thing I think people overlook is the ever growing salary cap. I'm definitely guilty of it too. It's hard to keep up with.

The salary cap when AJ signed his deal in 2015 was arojnd 140 mil. It's now projected at 196 to 203 mil in 2020. That's 40% increase.

Sometimes I think we call all get certain figures stuck in our head. i.e. 10 mil buys this, and 12 buys this, 15 buys this, and so on. But the cap is growing so much and these years fly by. Before you know it, the benchmarks you set are totally changed.

A 9 mil dollar per year deal in 2015 looks like 13 today. That's why some of these examples seem so crazy. That's how a guy like Humphries makes 8.5 and a turd like Devin Funchess makes 10.