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With the talk of the Bengals needing to trade down and build a line before taking a QB, I thought it would be useful to look at how the top offensive lines in 2019 were built. I used Football Outsiders' team OL ratings and looked at where each starter was drafted. The number listed is where they were taken overall. If there is a (FA) beside the number, that means their current team didn't draft them but acquired that player through free agency.
I'm not sure how to post a table, so the numbers listed go from left to right across the line (LT, LG, C, RT, RG). For example, New Orleans' left tackle, Terron Armstead, was the 75th overall draft pick. Their left guard (Andrus Peat) was the 13th pick, and so on.
1. NO - 75, 13, 48, 65(FA), 32
2. Dallas - 9, 50, 31, 16, UDFA
3. Balt - 6, 215, UDFA, 86, 83
4. Tenn - 11, 33(FA), 99(FA), 82, 8
5. Oak - 15, 81(FA), 55(FA), 31, 244(FA)
6. GB - 109, UDFA, 161, 67(FA), 23
7. Minn - 23(FA), 70, 18, UDFA, 62
8. SF - 28, 28(FA), UDFA, 131, 138
9. NE - 23, 78, UDFA, 131, 138
10. Den - 20, 41, 144, UDFA, 19(FA)
You have 5 remaining playoff teams in that top 10. For fun, let's look at the other 3 remaining teams.
15. Seattle - UDFA, 17, 215, 11(FA), 31
22. Houston - 13(trade), 55, 50, 193(FA), UDFA
28. KC - 1, UDFA, 222, 200, 37(FA)
Conclusions? Well, mine would be that there is no one way to build a good line. I don't think a "formula," per se, exists. Dallas has by far invested the most draft capital and it has paid off (Collins was a fluke UDFA who should have been a 1st round pick had it not been for weird circumstances), but looking at the list, you don't have to have a line full of 1st and 2nd round picks to build a good one. But you probably need to have a free agent to supplement what you have, and it doesn't hurt to get lucky with an undrafted free agent.
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You mean continuing to use 1st round picks won’t automatically “fix the OL” and guarantee us 5 All Galaxy players??
There’s been some misinformation going around here the last few years...
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The best way to build an OL? From the Center going out...
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Looking at groups doesn't seem very accurate because the best O-lines often have at least 1 or 2 starters who are just average or below average.
And if you were trying to see if it is okay to have an average/below average player at a certain position then you have to look at how good each player is instead of where he was drafted. For example our line struggled with a first round pick (Ogbuehi) at LT. That does not mean we should avoid having a first round pick at LT.
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All 13 teams have a first round tackle, 10 a first round LT.
10 teams have a UDFA.
This means that the Bengals are more or less half way to having a top 10 line as our line next year is Jonah (1st round LT) and Tre Hopkins (UDFA) and some others.
There are 13 FAs , that's one a team. The Bengals have a FA lineman as well (John Miller).
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(01-08-2020, 04:33 PM)RiverRat13 Wrote: With the talk of the Bengals needing to trade down and build a line before taking a QB, I thought it would be useful to look at how the top offensive lines in 2019 were built. I used Football Outsiders' team OL ratings and looked at where each starter was drafted. The number listed is where they were taken overall. If there is a (FA) beside the number, that means their current team didn't draft them but acquired that player through free agency.
I'm not sure how to post a table, so the numbers listed go from left to right across the line (LT, LG, C, RT, RG). For example, New Orleans' left tackle, Terron Armstead, was the 75th overall draft pick. Their left guard (Andrus Peat) was the 13th pick, and so on.
1. NO - 75, 13, 48, 65(FA), 32
2. Dallas - 9, 50, 31, 16, UDFA
3. Balt - 6, 215, UDFA, 86, 83
4. Tenn - 11, 33(FA), 99(FA), 82, 8
5. Oak - 15, 81(FA), 55(FA), 31, 244(FA)
6. GB - 109, UDFA, 161, 67(FA), 23
7. Minn - 23(FA), 70, 18, UDFA, 62
8. SF - 28, 28(FA), UDFA, 131, 138
9. NE - 23, 78, UDFA, 131, 138
10. Den - 20, 41, 144, UDFA, 19(FA)
You have 5 remaining playoff teams in that top 10. For fun, let's look at the other 3 remaining teams.
15. Seattle - UDFA, 17, 215, 11(FA), 31
22. Houston - 13(trade), 55, 50, 193(FA), UDFA
28. KC - 1, UDFA, 222, 200, 37(FA)
Conclusions? Well, mine would be that there is no one way to build a good line. I don't think a "formula," per se, exists. Dallas has by far invested the most draft capital and it has paid off (Collins was a fluke UDFA who should have been a 1st round pick had it not been for weird circumstances), but looking at the list, you don't have to have a line full of 1st and 2nd round picks to build a good one. But you probably need to have a free agent to supplement what you have, and it doesn't hurt to get lucky with an undrafted free agent.
One thing about the Free Agent is that you have a track record of just how well (or not) they have been adapting to the NFL.
The Vikings strengthened their Left Tackle position by signing Free Agent Riley Reiff who Zimmer got to see play when Reiff was with the Lions.
Reiff had an NFL track record that led the Vikings to believe that he would do the job well.
The Bengals signed Bobby Hart after his time with the Giants to play Right Tackle as a Bargain option at the time. Then for more money later.
The Bengals seem to just try to get by with many of their Free Agents while the Vikings were willing to pay more for a KEY piece to their line.
The Bengals tend to pass on the Free Agents with the better NFL track records and go for the cheaper more risky options.
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I mean if I used statistic I could very easily illustrate that the best place to pick a QB to win a SB is around pick 50 in the draft.
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(01-08-2020, 05:37 PM)TJHoushmandzadeh Wrote: All 13 teams have a first round tackle, 10 a first round LT.
10 teams have a UDFA.
This means that the Bengals are more or less half way to having a top 10 line as our line next year is Jonah (1st round LT) and Tre Hopkins (UDFA) and some others.
There are 13 FAs , that's one a team. The Bengals have a FA lineman as well (John Miller).
Start engraving the SuperbOwl now!
I know of no position in football where draft position guarantees success. Your list proves that. Draft position and success can be statistically analyzed for correlation and I'm sure analytics are used for that. For sure draft position tends to indicate likelihood of failure, ie the lower the draft pick the higher the odds of washing out of the NFL but there is no guarantee of failure. Money is probably a primary cause since the lower the pick the lower the money and the more expendable a player remains. High picks have a big investment so they stick a little longer and have more time to develop.
Heck not even the combine yields stats to find the next good OLinemen and they are measuring players agility, speed, strength, etc.
Just too many variables with coaching, a players intangibles such as emotional balance, brains, commitment, resilience plus the athletic stuff measured by the combine.
Andrew Whitworth should have been a top 5 pick yet all 32 NFL teams failed to rate him as a first rounder. Teams had 54 shots at Andrew before the Bengals got him. He replaced Levi Jones, a first round pick at 10. Who had a better career? I'd say Whit.
So in the next draft, I wouldn't mind the Bengals spend 2 of their first 3 picks on the Oline. They did it once before, a total failure, but it's a crap shoot so this draft might get them a Pro Bowl player, who knows?
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My take away is if you put a draft grade of 300+ on any UDFA (fair to me, but asterisk a guy like Collins), then you divide by 5 to get an average. Once you do that, the number 1 OL definitely built solely through the draft and drafted OL very well was Dallas.
The others have a combination of good drafting (like Yanda of Ravens) and seem to also have great OL coaching to develop their OL (Pats for example).
Sp to me in the end, it is a combo of good drafting (filling in draft mistakes through FA) and as or more important great OL coaching. Simply many teams invest less in players, but invested in great coaching short and long term.
2024 may go on record as one of most underperforming teams in Bengal history. Bengal's FO has major work to do on defensive side of the ball. I say tag and trade Tee Higgins in 2025 to start with the rebuild.
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Lets be honest here, it all comes down to "hitting" on your draft picks.
Whether its 1st round or 5th round you cant have swing and misses like Duke Tobin has done of late.
Look at our WRs during Marvins "prime" years
AJ - 1st Rd Pick
M Sanu - 3rd Rd pick
Marvin Jones - 5th Rd Pick
TJ HoushyourMama - 7th Rd Pick
Current Team WRs
Ross - 1st rd BUST (down remind me)
Tyler Boyd - 2nd Rd
A Tate - 7th Rd
A Erickson - Undrafted
Point is you can find "talent" in any round of the draft.........
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(01-08-2020, 05:37 PM)TJHoushmandzadeh Wrote: All 13 teams have a first round tackle, 10 a first round LT.
10 teams have a UDFA.
This means that the Bengals are more or less half way to having a top 10 line as our line next year is Jonah (1st round LT) and Tre Hopkins (UDFA) and some others.
There are 13 FAs , that's one a team. The Bengals have a FA lineman as well (John Miller).
Start engraving the SuperbOwl now!
In that case, the line is fine and has been for a few years.
2019 Glenn 1st round LT, Hopkins UDFA
2018 GLenn 1st round LT, Hopkins/Redmond UDFA
2017 Ogbuehi 1st round LT, Hopkins UDFA
2016 and earlier is where it got screwed up, with 2 first rounders, 2 fourth rounders, and a second rounder...
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First off: Rep to the OP for putting in the work.
Secondly: Looking at the top six 5 of them have mobile QBs, so maybe that's an asset.
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I think our line could easily be fixed with a 2-3 rounder paired with a decent free agent signing. But were asking them to be aggressive in free agency and paying premium for a offensive lineman which is something they are extremely adverse to.
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(01-09-2020, 12:58 AM)bfine32 Wrote: First off: Rep to the OP for putting in the work.
Secondly: Looking at the top six 5 of them have mobile QBs, so maybe that's an asset.
My Bengals Board New Year's Resolution: read all the posts before responding to the OP. You beat me to it. Absolutely, that is a huge part of this equation, a mobile QB: Of the playoff teams remaining, you have THE most mobile QBs: Wilson, Jackson, and Watson. Rogers, Tannehill, and Garrapolo are pretty mobile as well. The only team with an insanely mobile QB that didn't make the playoffs was AZ.
The other side of the coin is the Cam Newton story....as big as that dude is, his body began to break down from all the hits. So, there has to be a balance with a rushing attack as well (from sources other than the QB).
I was surprised that Indy wasn't on this list. Maybe they had injuries? And they had to go with a backup QB that was also injured during the season, but their line is one of the better, I believe.
New England was a perennial top offensive line team, and they didn't have but one first rounder on their offensive line. They did have some serious issues at tackle this year with injuries, but I believe they have shown that the coaching of said line also is a huge factor. Brady is not one to get the ball out quickly. At least not over his career. He could sit back there and pat the ball all day. Some of that was the offensive line (a lot of it...plus they can hold ) but some of it has to be the weapons around him that can generate quick separation. That forces defenses to generally avoid the blitz. I would love to see how often this ranked group faces the blitz vs. the rest of the league.
Most relevant to home, I think this is one of the biggest single issues with the Bengals. The ball is designed to come out so quickly that opposing defenses will be up near the line of scrimmage and only have to defend a smaller portion of the field. I only recall a very small number of deep shots this year (and the past few years, for that matter). I was hoping Ross would impact this greater than he has, although the complete disregard for how teams adjust when he is on the field is maddening.
The Bengals have a find in Hopkins at Center. The OT positions are in flux...we don't know what he have in Williams at all, and Bobby Hart is below average. The guard position play is some of the worst in the league. I am hopeful there is a Bobby Williams-type out there...drafted by a poor team that had few offensive weapons and the Bengals got him as a FA and he became a fixture at G for some time. He was a mauler of a RG. A free agent there, and at LEAST two draft picks (RT and G) will go a long way to opening up this offense.
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(01-09-2020, 08:34 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: My Bengals Board New Year's Resolution: read all the posts before responding to the OP. You beat me to it. Absolutely, that is a huge part of this equation, a mobile QB: Of the playoff teams remaining, you have THE most mobile QBs: Wilson, Jackson, and Watson. Rogers, Tannehill, and Garrapolo are pretty mobile as well. The only team with an insanely mobile QB that didn't make the playoffs was AZ.
The other side of the coin is the Cam Newton story....as big as that dude is, his body began to break down from all the hits. So, there has to be a balance with a rushing attack as well (from sources other than the QB).
Next up L. Jackson, if he doesn't tap his inner R. Wilson.
And yes balance is the key. Understand you can't be superman on every play.
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(01-08-2020, 04:33 PM)RiverRat13 Wrote: With the talk of the Bengals needing to trade down and build a line before taking a QB, I thought it would be useful to look at how the top offensive lines in 2019 were built. I used Football Outsiders' team OL ratings and looked at where each starter was drafted. The number listed is where they were taken overall. If there is a (FA) beside the number, that means their current team didn't draft them but acquired that player through free agency.
I'm not sure how to post a table, so the numbers listed go from left to right across the line (LT, LG, C, RT, RG). For example, New Orleans' left tackle, Terron Armstead, was the 75th overall draft pick. Their left guard (Andrus Peat) was the 13th pick, and so on.
1. NO - 75, 13, 48, 65(FA), 32
2. Dallas - 9, 50, 31, 16, UDFA
3. Balt - 6, 215, UDFA, 86, 83
4. Tenn - 11, 33(FA), 99(FA), 82, 8
5. Oak - 15, 81(FA), 55(FA), 31, 244(FA)
6. GB - 109, UDFA, 161, 67(FA), 23
7. Minn - 23(FA), 70, 18, UDFA, 62
8. SF - 28, 28(FA), UDFA, 131, 138
9. NE - 23, 78, UDFA, 131, 138
10. Den - 20, 41, 144, UDFA, 19(FA)
You have 5 remaining playoff teams in that top 10. For fun, let's look at the other 3 remaining teams.
15. Seattle - UDFA, 17, 215, 11(FA), 31
22. Houston - 13(trade), 55, 50, 193(FA), UDFA
28. KC - 1, UDFA, 222, 200, 37(FA)
Conclusions? Well, mine would be that there is no one way to build a good line. I don't think a "formula," per se, exists. Dallas has by far invested the most draft capital and it has paid off (Collins was a fluke UDFA who should have been a 1st round pick had it not been for weird circumstances), but looking at the list, you don't have to have a line full of 1st and 2nd round picks to build a good one. But you probably need to have a free agent to supplement what you have, and it doesn't hurt to get lucky with an undrafted free agent.
Don't forget to mention that Seattle, Houston, and KC all have rather mobile QBs too who can use their legs to extend plays when the OL breaks down.
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Here's what I think,
OL in FA will be over priced.
Sooo,
Sign a Top Tier DB, LB and DL.
Then in draft go heavy on OL.
Yes I know the money needs to balance, but with all the draft picks on Off, that means money is there for beefing up the D considerably.
Think about it, we will likely have 1 Tackle on cheap pay for 4 more years, QB and another Tackle for 5 more years. Hopkins is signed and good deal for another 4 years, so MJ has another 3 years as well. Draft a RG and cheap for another 4 years.
So once those top tier signed Def guys contracts expire, then the money can be shifted back to the "O" side, plus of course this would set us up finally for the next few drafts to just take BPA (heck I'd give up our 1st and 2nd next year to move back up and get Andrew Gardner. Secure those spots now and let the OL grow together.
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So many things to talk about, excellent post:
-I could definitely see the Bengals pay a premium for a guard this off-season. I just feel it.
-We need more than a one season snapshot, but it was still interesting to look at.
-Ogbuehi's issues at A&M followed him to the NFL - if you watch his tape you will see a lot of missed assignments. The thing is that it seems like offensive lineman do improve given time but their traits/tendencies don't unless they have already shown that they can - Ogbuehi should have been disqualified from being drafted in the first three rounds (same with Malik Jefferson).
-Can anybody give a summary of Jake Fisher? Was he a bad player of was it the heart issue?
-Rimington award winners tend to be technical specialists and historically have not panned out in the NFL. Can somebody give their thoughts on Billy Price? When I watch his OSU tape, he does a lot right but also had issues in the pass pro. What I remember of him in the preseason is that he looked flashy at times in the running game and can block well when he gets in front of people. I still think he pans out but he needs to focus on minimizing mistakes rather than looking good on easy blocks.
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(01-08-2020, 04:33 PM)RiverRat13 Wrote: With the talk of the Bengals needing to trade down and build a line before taking a QB, I thought it would be useful to look at how the top offensive lines in 2019 were built. I used Football Outsiders' team OL ratings and looked at where each starter was drafted. The number listed is where they were taken overall. If there is a (FA) beside the number, that means their current team didn't draft them but acquired that player through free agency.
I'm not sure how to post a table, so the numbers listed go from left to right across the line (LT, LG, C, RT, RG). For example, New Orleans' left tackle, Terron Armstead, was the 75th overall draft pick. Their left guard (Andrus Peat) was the 13th pick, and so on.
1. NO - 75, 13, 48, 65(FA), 32
2. Dallas - 9, 50, 31, 16, UDFA
3. Balt - 6, 215, UDFA, 86, 83
4. Tenn - 11, 33(FA), 99(FA), 82, 8
5. Oak - 15, 81(FA), 55(FA), 31, 244(FA)
6. GB - 109, UDFA, 161, 67(FA), 23
7. Minn - 23(FA), 70, 18, UDFA, 62
8. SF - 28, 28(FA), UDFA, 131, 138
9. NE - 23, 78, UDFA, 131, 138
10. Den - 20, 41, 144, UDFA, 19(FA)
You have 5 remaining playoff teams in that top 10. For fun, let's look at the other 3 remaining teams.
15. Seattle - UDFA, 17, 215, 11(FA), 31
22. Houston - 13(trade), 55, 50, 193(FA), UDFA
28. KC - 1, UDFA, 222, 200, 37(FA)
Conclusions? Well, mine would be that there is no one way to build a good line. I don't think a "formula," per se, exists. Dallas has by far invested the most draft capital and it has paid off (Collins was a fluke UDFA who should have been a 1st round pick had it not been for weird circumstances), but looking at the list, you don't have to have a line full of 1st and 2nd round picks to build a good one. But you probably need to have a free agent to supplement what you have, and it doesn't hurt to get lucky with an undrafted free agent.
Another criteria to keep in mind is that the average experience of the Top 5 OL's is 5.2 years in the league. None of those teams started more than one rookie, either, so apologies in advance to the "draft a T in 2 and a G in 3 and insert them into the starting lineup and the OL is fixed"crowd. It takes time for OL to develop into actual good pro's and you have to be mindful of giving up on guys too soon.
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