Pre Combine Full Offseason Mock

[Okeana]

2020 Offseason

Trade/cut

Andy Dalton
Cordy Glenn

Trade Block

Giovanni Bernard
Dre Kirkpatrick
AJ Green (After Franchise/Transition Tag)

Resign

AJ Green (Franchise/Transition) or 2 years 16 million with bonuses but lower % Guaranteed
Andrew Billings - 4 years / 5.5/6 mil yr  
Tyler Eifert - 1-2 year 6 mil a year
Darqueez Dennard - 3 year - 6 mil a year



Potential Free Agents

Graham Glasgow - RG Lions -5-6 year contract / 11.5 million

Brother plays on team and Detroit oddly hasn't offered him an extension.  One of the better guards in the league

Corey Littleton - MLB Rams - 4 year  14.5 mil

Cap casualty.  Connection with Zac Taylor could be a selling point.  Ideally want to pair with a run-stuffing MLB and move to SAM

Ronald Darby - CB Eagles - 1 year Prove it 6-7 million + bonuses

Coming off a terrible year combined with injuries.  Tons of upside and can compete with Dre for starting role

Andrew Whitworth - OT Rams - 1-2 year retirement deal 9-10 million 

Reach out with an apology in hopes he wants to come in to become a leader again and play with a young Burrow.  This is very unlikely to happen especially at 38 years old and having to uproot family again.


Karl Joseph - SS Raiders - 2-4 year contract market value 

No clue where his contract will pan out considering his option wasn't picked up and he's coming off an injury, but he could come in day 1 and compete with Shawn Williams


Draft


RD 1 - Burrow 

Man, Myth, Legend

Rd 2 - Marlon Davidson - Edge/DT - Auburn

quickly becoming one of my favorite players in this draft he fits multiple needs for this team and offers future depth.  line him up at 1 tech for pass rush, rotate him with Atkins and play him on the edge when needed.  We need to start to transition to a world without Atkins on the roster and if he's there in the 2nd I wouldn't hesitate to draft him.  

Rd 3 - Curtis Weaver - Edge - Boise 

Curtis Weaver is a guy who should be drafted much higher but because he lacks that elite burst/bend of a true edge he will fall, but what he lacks in those traits he makes up for with hands, power, and production.  I project him to come in as a backup behind Dunlap, but also just a rotational guy on both sides.  This addresses a weakness before it becomes a weakness and solidifies our defensive front.

Rd 4 - Jordyn Brooks - MLB - Texas Tech

Solid all-around MLB who diagnoses plays extremely well and is a tackling machine.  

Rd 5 - Yazir Durrant - OT - Missouri

The deep class will hopefully push him down some and we can bring him to develop at both guard and tackle. We have to keep throwing picks at tackle until one pans out

Rd 6 - Joe Bachie - LB - Michigan State

Lacks elite athleticism, but comes in as a high IQ backup who could possibly be a starter one day.  Adds value with special teams

Rd 7 - AJ Dillion - RB/FB - Boston College

6'2" 250 pounds running back who is exactly the kind of short-yardage back we need that can also lead the way for Mixon.  Should be a great special teams guy as well  

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

I would probably pick up a WR in FA over Darby or Draft one over Weaver in the 3rd as I am scared about our
weapons with AJ, Eifert and Ross's injury history. Guess I keep saying this but this does have me concerned.

Would love this Draft if these guys could finally stay healthy for a season. Nice that Eifert finally did, but he just
doesn't look the same at all running routes with the back injuries.

I like that you are looking to the future at DT and DE but I think we have enough RIGHT NOW to survive for
another year before upgrading. Burrow will need weapons and we have some very undependable ones injury
wise. Like the FA though besides Darby. Like you said, he is coming off a terrible season.

[*Synric*]

I like the FA and the signings but I have to ask did you mean out 15 mil for the draft signings?

[Okeana]

(02-03-2020, 08:01 PM)Synric Wrote: I like the FA and the signings but I have to ask did you mean out 15 mil for the draft signings?

Yes

[SadFaceBengal15]

I mean yes this would be awesome but cmon lol your FA will never happen we’d be lucky to sign 1 of those

[*Synric*]

You're free agent signings add up to 77mil not including Karl Joseph which you didnt add a number. 
(16+6+6+6+11.5+14.5+7+10=77)

Bengals have 44.7mil cap space adding 17.7 for Andy + 9.5 for Cordy Glenn = 71.9mil.
https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/cincinnati-bengals/

That does not include the roughly 15mil it will cost to sign draft picks.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(02-03-2020, 11:37 PM)Synric Wrote: Your free agent signings add up to 77mil not including Karl Joseph which you didnt add a number. 

Bengals have 44.7mil cap space adding 17.7 for Andy + 9.5 for Cordy Glenn = 71.9mil.
https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/cincinnati-bengals/

That does not include the roughly 15mil it will cost to sign draft picks.

Cutting or trading Kirkpatrick should help eh...

[*Synric*]

(02-03-2020, 11:43 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Cutting or trading Kirkpatrick should help eh...

Even if you cut Dre, Hart, and Miller it wouldn't be enough.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(02-03-2020, 11:52 PM)Synric Wrote: Even if you cut Dre, Hart, and Miller it wouldn't be enough.

Okay, not happening then.

[Okeana]

(02-03-2020, 11:37 PM)Synric Wrote: You're free agent signings add up to 77mil not including Karl Joseph which you didnt add a number. 
(16+6+6+6+11.5+14.5+7+10=77)

Bengals have 44.7mil cap space adding 17.7 for Andy + 9.5 for Cordy Glenn = 71.9mil.
https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/cincinnati-bengals/

That does not include the roughly 15mil it will cost to sign draft picks.

Remember Hit is always lower in year one and depending on the number of years signed the cap Is also lower for the duration. Whit is also an unlikely signing so with all that together you will have near 22 left in cap. Ideally you would sign aj Green to a 2 year 16 million. I can give a full breakdown on otc cap calc when I’m on a computer tomorrow but I’m on a cell right now.

[Okeana]

(02-03-2020, 11:57 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Okay, not happening then.

Read above

[schroomytunes]

I like some of your ideas but no way do I think we venture that deep in FA:

Some of my ideas here:


Cuts:
-you are spot on here, cutting trading Dalton/glenn saves us 27.2 million. I'm thinking we land at least a 6th rounder for Dalton.

Re-signs:

1) Dennard-high priority
2) Billings-high priority
3) AJ Green-moderarate
4) Wilson-high priority
5) Topou-moderate
6) Vigil-moderate
7) Eifert-moderate/high
8) Fedjelum-moderate

- Green (12), Eifert (6), Billings (6), and Dennard(7)  should total @ 30 per season if done right. the others total @9 so lets say 40 in all.

Extend:
1) Joe Mixon

Free Agents:
--I see us targeting a couple guys here to open up the draft for us but not Tier 1 guys:

1) Joe Schobert- MLB-(Browns) upgrades a team weakness 4yr/24

2) Vic Beasley-DE(Falcons)- 3yr-21- gives us another pass rusher in the rotation

3) Chase Daniel-Qb (Bears)- 2yr 6 -good backup to mentor Burrow.

Draft:

1) Burrow-QB  (LSU)

2) Isaiah Wilson-RT-(Georgia)

3) Jalen Reagor WR (TCU)

-first 3 picks focus on giving Burrow time and weapons.

4) Damon Arnette-S (Ohio St)

5) Joe Bachie -LB (Michigan St)

6) Jon Runyan- G (Michigan)

6) from Dalton. AJ Green -CB (Oklahoma St)

7) Cam Brown-LB (Penn St)

[Au165]

(02-04-2020, 12:52 AM)Okeana Wrote: Remember Hit is always lower in year one and depending on the number of years signed the cap Is also lower for the duration.  Whit is also an unlikely signing so with all that together you will have near 22 left in cap.  Ideally you would sign aj Green to a 2 year 16 million.  I can give a full breakdown on otc cap calc when I’m on a computer tomorrow but I’m on a cell right now.

Sure, but you didn't account for the rookie contracts in your math which is an oversight. Last year the pool for 1st overall was about $9.4 million so figure roughly $10 million this year for us. Then, as much as everyone hates the "Hobson Math" there are certain things you have to account for one being any additional guys you add to cover guys who go to IR as you still have to pay the IR guys so you need a couple million around for those guys. 

Overall, I'd say you probably spent about $20-25 Million too much in your scenario and that is setting aside the issues with spending all of your money on long term contracts in a single season with a large amount of re-signings next year (with a potential Mixon re-sign this off season). One thing to consider though is there is a rumor of a new CBA that could actually be signed before the FA period. If that is the case we could be in a whole new weird world and that could come with it's own pot holes to navigate.

[Okeana]

(02-04-2020, 12:13 PM)Au165 Wrote: Sure, but you didn't account for the rookie contracts in your math which is an oversight. Last year the pool for 1st overall was about $9.4 million so figure roughly $10 million this year for us. Then, as much as everyone hates the "Hobson Math" there are certain things you have to account for one being any additional guys you add to cover guys who go to IR as you still have to pay the IR guys so you need a couple million around for those guys. 

Overall, I'd say you probably spent about $20-25 Million too much in your scenario and that is setting aside the issues with spending all of your money on long term contracts in a single season with a large amount of re-signings next year (with a potential Mixon re-sign this off season). One thing to consider though is there is a rumor of a new CBA that could actually be signed before the FA period. If that is the case we could be in a whole new weird world and that could come with it's own pot holes to navigate.

true, but that's why this is a mock with potential moves that make sense compared to an actual line by line breakdown like I did on jungle noise a month or so ago.  I am still not in favor of signing AJ green at this point simply because of how much time he missed on his last contract.  People talk about how this guy like he's played on a discount here, but the fact is he just made 15m last year without playing a single game.  We wouldn't be in this situation where we need the guy if we would have traded him, but I don't want to get ranting.


BTW I do not start realistic mocks until after the combine especially when it comes to the offseason because I want to talk about alternatives draft picks and free agents that others don't spend a lot of time on.  Maybe I should clarify in the post that the Free agents are options because obviously your not signing that many free agents.  My mistake

[Au165]

(02-04-2020, 02:53 PM)Okeana Wrote: true, but that's why this is a mock with potential moves that make sense compared to an actual line by line breakdown like I did on jungle noise a month or so ago.  I am still not in favor of signing AJ green at this point simply because of how much time he missed on his last contract.  People talk about how this guy like he's played on a discount here, but the fact is he just made 15m last year without playing a single game.  We wouldn't be in this situation where we need the guy if we would have traded him, but I don't want to get ranting.


BTW I do not start realistic mocks until after the combine especially when it comes to the offseason because I want to talk about alternatives draft picks and free agents that others don't spend a lot of time on.  Maybe I should clarify in the post that the Free agents are options because obviously your not signing that many free agents.  My mistake

I feel you. I usually only do one or two league wide first round mocks but don't do it until FA has died down. So many moving pieces still up in the air. Tom Brady is the linchpin to the entire off season for almost every team in some way shape or form. 

[*Synric*]

(02-04-2020, 12:13 PM)Au165 Wrote: Sure, but you didn't account for the rookie contracts in your math which is an oversight. Last year the pool for 1st overall was about $9.4 million so figure roughly $10 million this year for us. Then, as much as everyone hates the "Hobson Math" there are certain things you have to account for one being any additional guys you add to cover guys who go to IR as you still have to pay the IR guys so you need a couple million around for those guys. 

Overall, I'd say you probably spent about $20-25 Million too much in your scenario and that is setting aside the issues with spending all of your money on long term contracts in a single season with a large amount of re-signings next year (with a potential Mixon re-sign this off season). One thing to consider though is there is a rumor of a new CBA that could actually be signed before the FA period. If that is the case we could be in a whole new weird world and that could come with it's own pot holes to navigate.

Carl Lawson could he a guy they try to lockdown this offseason too. I get injury concerns but if they look past that it could actually be in Cincy's favor keeping the price tag low.