Bengals #1 Pick QB Comparison Palmer versus Burrow

[Luvnit2]

It appears we will take a QB for only the second time in our history with the #1 overall pick in the 2020. The 1st was and only was Carson Palmer.

Let's dive into the skill sets of Palmer and Burrow coming out of college. Then based on college only to be fair, pick one if both were available in 2020.

I will start with just a few comments, but hold my choice for later.

Palmer has a stronger arm.
Burrow is more mobile in and out of the pocket.

Let's have some fun, but at same time get a read on both QB's strengths and weaknesses coming out of college.

[fredtoast]

TBH I don't remember ever seeing Palmer play in college.

[Luvnit2]

(03-03-2020, 12:56 PM)fredtoast Wrote: TBH I don't remember ever seeing Palmer play in college.

NP, go off of his draft analysis

[RunKijanaRun]

Carson Palmer has a billboard for a forehead and is a complete douche canoe.

Burrow has great hair but a punchable face. One of the most punchable faces I've seen.

[Hoofhearted]

(03-03-2020, 12:51 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: It appears we will take a QB for only the second time in our history with the #1 overall pick in the 2020. The 1st was and only was Carson Palmer.

Let's dive into the skill sets of Palmer and Burrow coming out of college. Then based on college only to be fair, pick one if both were available in 2020.

I will start with just a few comments, but hold my choice for later.

Palmer has a stronger arm.
Burrow is more mobile in and out of the pocket.

Let's have some fun, but at same time get a read on both QB's strengths and weaknesses coming out of college.

Palmer was no slouch with his mobility. I think Joe had a great write up here with the similarities between them

https://theathletic.com/1478980/2019/12/23/goodberry-rewinding-to-when-the-bengals-took-carson-palmer-first-overall/?source=shared-article

Some I found on youtube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bxjWbTRc_VA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mf691KDKbOQ

[CJD]

I was not a football fan in 2003, so the only information I have on Carson Palmer comes from googling, but from what I can tell he was kind of a late bloomer.

If you take out his senior year, his college stats for the first 4 years were 40 games played, 618 of 1080, 7876 yards, 57.2% completion percentage with 39 touchdowns and 39 interceptions. That's a college passer rating of 123.17. (Joe Burrow's QB rating in his first year starting was 133.2).

Carson had prototypical arm strength, which allowed him to take risks that other players could not. We saw this in the NFL as well, as his deep ball was majestic.

The downside was, as we see in his college stats, his accuracy suffered for it. We also saw this in the NFL, with him consistently overthrowing mid level routes, often throwing it over a receiver's head. Even in his best college season, his completion percentage was only 63.2%. It's a fine percentage, but not anything to write home about. His QB rating in his senior year was 149.1 (Joe Burrow's QB rating in his senior year was 202.0).

Palmer was considered an underperformer until the final 6 games of his career, as Chris Mortenson said:

Quote:"His ascension is based on a terrific six-game stretch at the end of USC's season," said another scout. "That guy is a heck of a prospect. The guy before that was a suspect prospect. Can it all change in six games? When he stepped outside the Pac-10, he really struggled against a Big 12 school like Kansas State (16-of-47, 186 yards in a loss), but then he came back big against Notre Dame and Iowa."

Despite his risk taking and inconsistent accuracy, Palmer was considered very good at throwing his receivers open; great anticipation.

One thing that is often forgotten is that Carson was apparently fairly mobile in college. He ran a 4.62 40 yard dash at his pro day so USC was able to call roll outs, boots etc.

The final defining characteristic of Palmer was his unflappability. He could stand in the pocket and deliver strikes even under pressure. He did not, however, have the pocket mobility that Burrow has. He had good footwork but some said he was almost too mechanical
Mortenson, again, said:

Quote:Even Palmer's mechanics get a good-bad response. They're very sound, but one personnel man considering a quarterback in the first round labeled him as "almost too mechanical ... robo-QB."

According to Bill Walsh:

Quote:He’s accurate, but he can’t avoid the rush like Montana. You can see he’s been schooled on his footwork, which he’d better be because he has no natural quickness. Excellent touch, strong-enough arm, quick delivery.

One defining deficiency in Palmer's game was leadership. Mortenson, once again:

Quote:Leadership? More debate. One scout notes that "Palmer is a nice kid....very well-liked by his coaches and teammates." Another scout calls him, "a wallflower...real low on personality...hardly inspirational."

On the other hand, Leadership is one of Burrow's calling cards.

So let's just do a quick line up of the key traits for a QB for each.

Carson Palmer:
Strengths:
Optimal arm strength
More Mobile than you think
Unshakable in the pocket
Excellent mechanics and quick delivery
Good footwork
Great anticipation and touch

Weaknesses:
Not much of a leader
Inconsistent accuracy
Questionable decision making
One year wonder (or, more precisely, one half year wonder)
Too mechanical
Lacked elite pocket mobility

Joe Burrow:
Strengths:
Fairly mobile
Unshakable in the pocket
Good footwork
Great anticipation and touch
Elite pocket mobility
Elite accuracy to all levels (especially deep throws, despite his average arm strength)
Natural Born Leader
Elite level decision making

Weaknesses:
Merely average arm strength
One year wonder
Smaller than average hands
Takes unnecessary hits when he takes off for a run

So, with Carson, you gain the arm strength and some mechanics, but lose the accuracy, pocket mobility, leadership and decision making.

I think if Carson and Joe were in the same draft, there wouldn't even be a question as to who would go first overall.

(It'd be Burrow).

I got a lot of this information on Carson from Joe Goodberry's fantastic article on him from the Athletic

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

Great job CJD, well done.

I think what puts them apart in the end is the leadership qualities and decision making in which Joe clearly wins.

Also Burrow played against 7 top 10 teams in his Senior year and lit them up.

Carson had a worse Junior season than Burrow did for all the one year wonder crap people say about Burrow.

[Yojimbo]

(03-03-2020, 01:48 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I was not a football fan in 2003, so the only information I have on Carson Palmer comes from googling, but from what I can tell he was kind of a late bloomer.

If you take out his senior year, his college stats for the first 4 years were 40 games played, 618 of 1080, 7876 yards, 57.2% completion percentage with 39 touchdowns and 39 interceptions. That's a college passer rating of 123.17. (Joe Burrow's QB rating in his first year starting was 133.2).

Carson had prototypical arm strength, which allowed him to take risks that other players could not. We saw this in the NFL as well, as his deep ball was majestic.

The downside was, as we see in his college stats, his accuracy suffered for it. We also saw this in the NFL, with him consistently overthrowing mid level routes, often throwing it over a receiver's head. Even in his best college season, his completion percentage was only 63.2%. It's a fine percentage, but not anything to write home about. His QB rating in his senior year was 149.1 (Joe Burrow's QB rating in his senior year was 202.0).

Palmer was considered an underperformer until the final 6 games of his career, as Chris Mortenson said:

Despite his risk taking and inconsistent accuracy, Palmer was considered very good at throwing his receivers open; great anticipation.

One thing that is often forgotten is that Carson was apparently fairly mobile in college. He ran a 4.62 40 yard dash at his pro day so USC was able to call roll outs, boots etc.

The final defining characteristic of Palmer was his unflappability. He could stand in the pocket and deliver strikes even under pressure. He did not, however, have the pocket mobility that Burrow has. He had good footwork but some said he was almost too mechanical
Mortenson, again, said:
According to Bill Walsh:

One defining deficiency in Palmer's game was leadership. Mortenson, once again:

On the other hand, Leadership is one of Burrow's calling cards.

So let's just do a quick line up of the key traits for a QB for each.

Carson Palmer:
Strengths:
Optimal arm strength
More Mobile than you think
Unshakable in the pocket
Excellent mechanics and quick delivery
Good footwork
Great anticipation and touch

Weaknesses:
Not much of a leader
Inconsistent accuracy
Questionable decision making
One year wonder (or, more precisely, one half year wonder)
Too mechanical
Lacked elite pocket mobility

Joe Burrow:
Strengths:
Fairly mobile
Unshakable in the pocket
Good footwork
Great anticipation and touch
Elite pocket mobility
Elite accuracy to all levels (especially deep throws, despite his average arm strength)
Natural Born Leader
Elite level decision making

Weaknesses:
Merely average arm strength
One year wonder
Smaller than average hands
Takes unnecessary hits when he takes off for a run

So, with Carson, you gain the arm strength and some mechanics, but lose the accuracy, pocket mobility, leadership and decision making.

I think if Carson and Joe were in the same draft, there wouldn't even be a question as to who would go first overall.

(It'd be Burrow).

I got a lot of this information on Carson from Joe Goodberry's fantastic article on him from the Athletic

I think we are actually seeing what would happen if they were in the same draft right now. Palmer and Herbert are almost identical prospects. Herbert isn’t going ahead of Burrow.

[sandwedge]

(03-03-2020, 02:41 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Great job CJD, well done.

I think what puts them apart in the end is the leadership qualities and decision making in which Joe clearly wins.

Also Burrow played against 7 top 10 teams in his Senior year and lit them up.

Carson had a worse Junior season than Burrow did for all the one year wonder crap people say about Burrow.

Nailed it again Nate! Leadership is probably the most important quality a QB has to possess.

[CJD]

(03-03-2020, 03:07 PM)Yojimbo Wrote: I think we are actually seeing what would happen if they were in the same draft right now. Palmer and Herbert are almost identical prospects. Herbert isn’t going ahead of Burrow.

The interesting thing about Herbert is I would argue he's a better prospect than Carson. He has just as much arm strength, but better accuracy  and decision making while doing it over a 4 year career rather than a 6 game stretch.

He's got the same cons as Carson, with bad leadership, spotty accuracy on middle field routes and only fair mobility.

I remember when I first became a Bengals fan in 2004, everyone I spoke to was so excited for Carson Palmer. I kind of got it in my head that he was this generational talent. Like, the next Peyton Manning level prospect.

I never looked into it or anything, that was just the impression I got based on how people talked about him. So when he was elite in 2005, it made sense.

And then, during this off season, I've come to learn that we basically staked out entire franchise on a 6 game wonder with a big arm haha.

Comparing what Carson was in 2003 to what Burrow is in 2020, it's kind of hilarious that they are both going to end up being the same selection because Burrow is just so insanely superior to Carson in nearly every way. And that's with the hindsight knowledge that Carson does, indeed, turn out to be a very good QB.

[BURROWorBUST]

Well, we didn't call him "Pick-6 Palmer" for no reason.

Last season Joe threw 60 TDs with only 6 INTs.

In his last season at USC, Palmer threw 33 TDs with 10 INTs.
in 2018, it was 13 TDs & 12 INTs.

So, add decision making to Joe's side of the ledger.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(03-03-2020, 04:08 PM)BURROWorBUST Wrote: Well, we didn't call him "Pick-6 Palmer" for no reason.

Last season Joe threw 60 TDs with only 6 INTs.

In his last season at USC, Palmer threw 33 TDs with 10 INTs.
in 2018, it was 13 TDs & 12 INTs.

So, add decision making to Joe's side of the ledger.

I thought Joe only threw 3 interceptions last season? Could be wrong, I know it is an extremely low number though.

[BURROWorBUST]

(03-03-2020, 04:12 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: I thought Joe only threw 3 interceptions last season? Could be wrong, I know it is an extremely low number though.

Nah, it was 6. The TD to INT ratio is insane! Check it.

[Hammerstripes]

(03-03-2020, 03:48 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: The interesting thing about Herbert is I would argue he's a better prospect than Carson. He has just as much arm strength, but better accuracy  and decision making while doing it over a 4 year career rather than a 6 game stretch.

He's got the same cons as Carson, with bad leadership, spotty accuracy on middle field routes and only fair mobility.

I remember when I first became a Bengals fan in 2004, everyone I spoke to was so excited for Carson Palmer. I kind of got it in my head that he was this generational talent. Like, the next Peyton Manning level prospect.

I never looked into it or anything, that was just the impression I got based on how people talked about him. So when he was elite in 2005, it made sense.

And then, during this off season, I've come to learn that we basically staked out entire franchise on a 6 game wonder with a big arm haha.

Comparing what Carson was in 2003 to what Burrow is in 2020, it's kind of hilarious that they are both going to end up being the same selection because Burrow is just so insanely superior to Carson in nearly every way. And that's with the hindsight knowledge that Carson does, indeed, turn out to be a very good QB.

For me there are a lot of similarities between Palmer and Burrow.  I fell in love with both of them their senior years and hoped they would both end up in Cincy.

I can't agree with you on the Herbert stuff.  Herbert has never been considered a no-brainer 1st overall pick.  Once Palmer started his senior year and got going, he literally took over games.  He could make any throw and put USC in a position where they could beat any team in the country.  He torched Iowa in the Orange Bowl.  Offenses back then were very different.  Palmer was deadly accurate and I never saw the inconsistency that you mentioned during his senior year.  He had one bad game at K-State early in the season.

I've never watched Herbert and thought "wow, he just took over that game and made every throw."  I've always felt like he just always teased and never put it all together.  He just always seems to come up small in a big spot.

I also think if you went back and watch Palmer's senior year, there would be a very strong debate that Palmer is as good if not better of a Pro Prospect than Burrow.  People tend to forget just how good he was.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(03-03-2020, 04:15 PM)BURROWorBUST Wrote: Nah, it was 6. The TD to INT ratio is insane! Check it.

You are correct Shady. Best season by a QB ever!!!

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(03-03-2020, 04:28 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: For me there are a lot of similarities between Palmer and Burrow.  I fell in love with both of them their senior years and hoped they would both end up in Cincy.

I can't agree with you on the Herbert stuff.  Herbert has never been considered a no-brainer 1st overall pick.  Once Palmer started his senior year and got going, he literally took over games.  He could make any throw and put USC in a position where they could beat any team in the country.  He torched Iowa in the Orange Bowl.  Offenses back then were very different.  Palmer was deadly accurate and I never saw the inconsistency that you mentioned during his senior year.  He had one bad game at K-State early in the season.

I've never watched Herbert and thought "wow, he just took over that game and made every throw."  I've always felt like he just always teased and never put it all together.  He just always seems to come up small in a big spot.

I also think if you went back and watch Palmer's senior year, there would be a very strong debate that Palmer is as good if not better of a Pro Prospect than Burrow.  People tend to forget just how good he was.

Agreed on Herbert, not impressed, never have been.

[fredtoast]

(03-03-2020, 03:48 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Comparing what Carson was in 2003 to what Burrow is in 2020, it's kind of hilarious that they are both going to end up being the same selection because Burrow is just so insanely superior to Carson in nearly every way. 

Let's slow the roll just a bit here.  Carson's numbers don't look that good because they are from 20 years ago.  But he had a more consistent career than Burrow despite playing on some much worse teams.  In 2000 Palmer ranked #1 in the Pac-10 in completions and completion percentage and top 5 in passer rating despite playing for a losing team.  He finished in the top 2 in the conference in completions and completion percentage three times each.  On the other hand Burrow only finished higher than 12th in his conference in passer rating once.

[bengals1969]

(03-03-2020, 03:18 PM)sandwedge Wrote: Nailed it again Nate! Leadership is probably the most important quality a QB has to possess.

Palmer quit on the team in 2010-2011.  Probably never wanted to be in Cincinnati.
Burrow appears to embrace being there, in southwestern Ohio and reasonably close to Athens.  I went to college not far from Athens, it's a nice area no doubt.  

So that is the biggest difference among all the stats.  Burrow likes being there, Palmer probably never did.

[Hammerstripes]

(03-03-2020, 04:53 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Let's slow the roll just a bit here.  Carson's numbers don't look that good because they are from 20 years ago.  But he had a more consistent career than Burrow despite playing on some much worse teams.  In 2000 Palmer ranked #1 in the Pac-10 in completions and completion percentage and top 5 in passer rating despite playing for a losing team.  He finished in the top 2 in the conference in completions and completion percentage three times each.  On the other hand Burrow only finished higher than 12th in his conference in passer rating once.

This.  A bunch of us "old timers" remember the show Palmer put on during his senior year.  I can't imagine what he would have done in these spread type offenses.

You honestly couldn't draw up a better looking QB physically.  People also tend to downplay just how damn good that 2005 team was.  Had we not been in the Manning/Brady era and the Kimo strike, they very easily could have been GREAT for a long time,

[Pat5775]

(03-03-2020, 04:57 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: This.  A bunch of us "old timers" remember the show Palmer put on during his senior year.  I can't imagine what he would have done in these spread type offenses.

You honestly couldn't draw up a better looking QB physically.  People also tend to downplay just how damn good that 2005 team was.  Had we not been in the Manning/Brady era and the Kimo strike, they very easily could have been GREAT for a long time,

They *SHOULD have been that great for a long time... I don’t know what happened. Maybe all of the arrests, injuries, retaining Chuck Bresnahan too long, a combination of everything....it just wasn’t meant to be