pick 33 big board

[*Synric*]

I'm not as high on the big 3 linebackers like everyone else.

Zack Baun is an edge defender that wants to switch to stack linebacker.

Patrick Queen is a solid coverage linebacker but is slow to read the run and his lack of length shows up in missed tackles in space.

Kenneth Murray is out of control he is all athleticism. Bad angles poor tackling and we have no idea what he will look like in coverage because Oklahoma rarely asked him to do it.

I think the guy that is criminally underrated is Troy Dye. We are talking about one of the better linebackers over the last 3 seasons. He has been a top coverage linebackers in college football, very good as a blitzer, and a tackling machine. His 2019 tape isn't as good as the previous two years is why he's falling but he also was playing with a broken thumb in a clubbed glove and a partially torn meniscus even then he still graded out as PFFs second highest linebacker 90.5.

[JSR18]

(03-21-2020, 05:02 AM)Bilbo Saggins Wrote: The year that Dennard fell, people were saying that he was a top 10 pick and that there was no way in hell that he'd ever fall to a playoff team.  Pre-draft wisdom doesn't always hold true.  Don't be shocked if or when one of the "top players" makes it to 33; or if they keep falling.

I have a sneaking suspicion that Tua is going to be the fall guy (pun intended). Tua's going to fall harder and further than Brady Quinn...  

[BengalChris]

(03-20-2020, 03:32 PM)Okeana Wrote: 1.  Patrick Queen
2.  Denzel Mims
3.  Kenneth Murray
4.  Zach Baun
5.  Kyle Dugger
6.  Antoine Winfield jr.
7.  Lloyd Cushenberry
8.  John Simpson
9.  Ross Blacklock
10.  Chase Claypool


So these are guys who I feel may be available within our range depending on how the draft falls,  how does your big board look for 33.  Please avoid picking people considered top 15 picks lmao.

It seems that every year one or two players fall that fans and TV analysts think will go high. There likely will be a surprise player available to us. The #33 pick should be the best player available.

 

[Whatever]

(04-04-2020, 08:32 PM)BengalChris Wrote: It seems that every year one or two players fall that fans and TV analysts think will go high. There likely will be a surprise player available to us. The #33 pick should be the best player available.

 

I agree 100%.  A lot of these recent early draft misses are because they reached based on need instead of just sticking to their board and drafting the best player.  When they were killing it in the draft, it was largely because they used BPA philosophy.  When they started moving away from that, they started struggling.

[DYT_Bengal]

(04-03-2020, 11:28 AM)Synric Wrote: I'm not as high on the big 3 linebackers like everyone else.

Zack Baun is an edge defender that wants to switch to stack linebacker.

Patrick Queen is a solid coverage linebacker but is slow to read the run and his lack of length shows up in missed tackles in space.

Kenneth Murray is out of control he is all athleticism. Bad angles poor tackling and we have no idea what he will look like in coverage because Oklahoma rarely asked him to do it.

I think the guy that is criminally underrated is Troy Dye. We are talking about one of the better linebackers over the last 3 seasons. He has been a top coverage linebackers in college football, very good as a blitzer, and a tackling machine. His 2019 tape isn't as good as the previous two years is why he's falling but he also was playing with a broken thumb in a clubbed glove and a partially torn meniscus even then he still graded out as PFFs second highest linebacker 90.5.

I think your assessment of other linebackers is too critical.

1.) We are transitioning to a hybrid 3-4 and need a Sam. Either Sam Hubbard or Dunlap will take the second DE (Reader - NT, Atkins - DE) - probably Dunlap. With Hubbard outside, we have Bynes and Pratt (Pratt will most likely be the hybrid backer considering he transitioned to LB from safety) at MLB, and nothing else unless you want to start Lawson in the base.
2.) In nickel packages, Lawson will most likely be taken off the field allowing Hubbard to blitz and Bynes and Pratt to play coverage.
3.) Lawson is supposedly a liability in the run, so why would he even be playing in the base.
4.) Bynes is supposedly good in the run but not good in coverage.
5.) So our weaknesses are MLB in coverage and OLB against the run.

I would be happy if the Bengals chose Dye, but I don't think his film is as good as you remember - he is athletic and looks like a decent MLB but he does allow players to get open in coverage. I would rather pick him in the third.

Bynes is old - Queen would probably be an upgrade in the long run but is not an immediate need.

Murray plays the same position as Pratt.

Baun would be a better pick considering he is tailor made for a 3-4 sam and looks decent enough to play coverage in the NFL to keep him in the nickel while taking Bynes out.  I see him as a more immediate need and I would not say we would be overreaching if he was still there whereas Dye would be a reach, imo. Queen shows more upside and would fit a need that will be an issue in one or two years. It might be smart to trade Lawson.

[DYT_Bengal]

(04-04-2020, 08:32 PM)BengalChris Wrote: It seems that every year one or two players fall that fans and TV analysts think will go high. There likely will be a surprise player available to us. The #33 pick should be the best player available.

 

I could see that player as Mekhi Becton or AJ Epenesa with a dark horse of Derrick Brown.

[McC]

(04-04-2020, 08:32 PM)BengalChris Wrote: It seems that every year one or two players fall that fans and TV analysts think will go high. There likely will be a surprise player available to us. The #33 pick should be the best player available.

 

Yep.  That's exactly what you're looking for.   And if somehow that doesn't happen, you're looking for the intersection of need and talent.  If that somehow doesn't happen, that's when you have a bidding war for a trade.

They're in the catbird seat.

[*Synric*]

(04-04-2020, 10:19 PM)willieFANderson Wrote: I think your assessment of other linebackers is too critical.

1.) We are transitioning to a hybrid 3-4 and need a Sam. Either Sam Hubbard or Dunlap will take the second DE (Reader - NT, Atkins - DE) - probably Dunlap. With Hubbard outside, we have Bynes and Pratt (Pratt will most likely be the hybrid backer considering he transitioned to LB from safety) at MLB, and nothing else unless you want to start Lawson in the base.
2.) In nickel packages, Lawson will most likely be taken off the field allowing Hubbard to blitz and Bynes and Pratt to play coverage.
3.) Lawson is supposedly a liability in the run, so why would he even be playing in the base.
4.) Bynes is supposedly good in the run but not good in coverage.
5.) So our weaknesses are MLB in coverage and OLB against the run.

I would be happy if the Bengals chose Dye, but I don't think his film is as good as you remember - he is athletic and looks like a decent MLB but he does allow players to get open in coverage. I would rather pick him in the third.

Bynes is old - Queen would probably be an upgrade in the long run but is not an immediate need.

Murray plays the same position as Pratt.

Baun would be a better pick considering he is tailor made for a 3-4 sam and looks decent enough to play coverage in the NFL to keep him in the nickel while taking Bynes out.  I see him as a more immediate need and I would not say we would be overreaching if he was still there whereas Dye would be a reach, imo. Queen shows more upside and would fit a need that will be an issue in one or two years. It might be smart to trade Lawson.

34 defense is a base alignment.

Let me ask you this... the most common alightment for a 34 defense is actually a 335 because offenses run 11 personnel over 60%(3WR 1 TE 1 RB). Which Linebacker stands up on the LoS Pratt Bynes or Baun? Which one is the coverage linebacker that lines up over the TE? 

Fact is Carlos Dunlap and Sam Hubbard both played the spot you are recommending Zack Baun and at a high level. The Bengals need a ILB that fits that profile are Dye, Queen, Gay, and Brooks.

[samhain]

I know we're still looking for LBs here and that's what many of us are projecting with this pick. I wouldn't be mad if it went that way. I like Baun and don't know a lot about Queen.

I will say though, I feel like WR is a bigger need than many want to admit. Maybe it's just me, but my faith in Green and Ross is at just about zero. Yeah, they're capable of a lot if they actually play. If they both play a lot, and are on the field with Boyd, then look out. Recent history suggests that this is unlikely. They are made of glass.

With Burrow being a foregone conclusion, I would really like to see them grab a WR that falls due to there being so many good ones available. I feel like the flood of free agency activity on defense makes this possible. I'd keep my eye on whatever their board says, and grab the highest rated WR that remains.

[BengalChris]

(04-04-2020, 11:21 PM)McC Wrote: Yep.  That's exactly what you're looking for.   And if somehow that doesn't happen, you're looking for the intersection of need and talent.  If that somehow doesn't happen, that's when you have a bidding war for a trade.

They're in the catbird seat.

They certainly are.

If I were to pick some needs at this spot, then I'd say LB (for obvious reasons), WR (someone who can actually provide competition to Ross and possibly be AJ's eventual replacement), a pass catching TE (maybe the team feels Sample is the guy, but Burrow will need a quality target at the position - I don't know anything about the TEs in this draft though) or potentially an upgrade at RT.

Those are the positions of biggest need that I see. You could add OG to that list as well, as Michael Jordan is far from a sure thing.

What I'd prefer not to see happen is the team trade back, then overdraft someone that they talked themselves into, a la Drew Sample, and then draft projects with the extra picks they got. That 2nd round pick should be someone who can win a starting job, not give us a few warm bodies that'll take a season or two to develop, if they develop at all. The 2nd round in 2019 netted TE Drew Sample, DT Wren and RB Williams, none of which produced much of anything. Maybe they will some day, maybe they won't.

 

[JerseyDD09]

(04-05-2020, 12:03 AM)Synric Wrote: 34 defense is a base alignment.

Let me ask you this... the most common alightment for a 34 defense is actually a 335 because offenses run 11 personnel over 60%(3WR 1 TE 1 RB). Which Linebacker stands up on the LoS Pratt Bynes or Baun? Which one is the coverage linebacker that lines up over the TE? 

Fact is Carlos Dunlap and Sam Hubbard both played the spot you are recommending Zack Baun and at a high level. The Bengals need a ILB that fits that profile are Dye, Queen, Gay, and Brooks.

Pat Kerwin on SiriusXM on Friday chose Malik Harrison over Zach Baun in their Mock Draft b/c he said they saw both for a week at the Senior Bowl and Harrison impressed him more than Baun.
He traded down from #33 to somewhere and then took Harrison. They got an extra 3rd rounder also. I wouldn't be devastated if they did that actually.

[BURROWorBUST]

Just an update

Denzel Mims
Zack Baun
Josh Jones
Cesar Ruiz
Kenneth Murray
Justin Reagor
Tee Higgins
Lyviska Shenault

[BenZoo2]

Somebody may have mentioned this already, but the bengals will be at a decided advantage having the first pick in every round. More so for the start of the second and third day. Other teams will have plenty of time to submit a trade offer and the bengals should have a decent amount of time sifting through any offers.

It’s going to be mass chaos trying to coordinate trades between picks between possibly several phones


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-02-2020, 10:53 PM)Whatever Wrote: I wouldn't say it's a high passer rating against him, but it's not amazing, either.

Thing is, looking through four of his game films, he pretty much just drops into a deep zone in coverage, which explains the high completion %.  And he's bad at it.  He's constantly late in reacting to crossers and out routes.  He has a rep against Texas where the outside receiver clears out up the sideline and the inside receiver gets up to his outside shoulder and runs an out and he doesn't even react.  He's just standing there staring in the backfield as the ball comes out for an easy completion.  It's a consistent pattern in both the run and pass game.  He gets complete tunnel vision staring in the backfield and is totally oblivious to everything going on around him.  He does a good job covering the HB flare, but that's about it.  QB's will be able to freeze him their eyes and Roethlisberger would destroy him with that pump fake of his.  

He's a very disruptive pass rusher, but he has at least one botched run fit that goes for a huge gain in each of the films I watched.  He's the type of player that if you just watch his highlights, you'd think he's amazing, but he blows more plays than he makes.  There are times he seems instinctive, but with the blown fits and hesitation in zone, it seems more like he's just guessing than reading and reacting.  

Thanks for this, not as high on Queen again lol

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-03-2020, 07:15 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: Study his tape," McShay said. "He’s the best player on the field on the defensive side for LSU just about every single down. Especially late in the year when they really needed him. I would take him late in the first (round) and be totally fine sleeping that night. If I got him early in the second, I would think it’s a steal. He’s going to start right away."




McShay also noted that if Queen gets drafted to a team with a skilled defensive line, it will only help to amplify his skill set.
"If you do things properly upfront, it’s going to allow him to run and chase and pursue, which he does best," McShay said.

(04-03-2020, 07:25 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: Couple more guys that know a bit about player evaluation:

NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein: While other Tigers received more attention, Queen has some of the most eye-opening tape of the bunch. He plays fast, physical and with impressive field confidence for a one-year starter. His ability to diagnose and flow are both very rapid, and he operates with excellent body control and balance to gobble up runners as an open-field tackler. His inexperience will show itself in taking on blocks and finding optimal pursuit angles, but that will get cleaned up in time. Queen is next up from LSU's linebacker factory, possessing the same three-down ability to hunt, cover and tackle as those before him. He's an early starter with a sky-high ceiling.

ESPN's Mel Kiper: The more I watched LSU's defense last season, the more I liked Queen. He just constantly showed up on the film, making sure tackles and penetrating into the backfield. And he was great in the Tigers' two College Football Playoff games, with four tackles for loss and 16 total tackles. Queen is a run-and-hit middle linebacker who has some coverage skills, though he can still improve there. He'll be an instant starter as a rookie.

Well damn, just keep going back and forth on this guy...  

(04-03-2020, 10:11 AM)BenZoo2 Wrote: The second round of this draft is going to be fascinating to watch as a bengals fan.  Let’s assume for a moment that players I list are available:
Josh Jones or comparable ot
Queen or Murray
Mims or similarly graded wr
Ruiz

It seems to me that generally the bengals have opted for skill positions with their top picks and have generally pushed down other areas.  I don’t know if that is a Mike brown thing or was a Marvin thing.

If it’s more of a Mike brown thing I would expect the ot or wr to be taken

Josh Jones would be ideal in my eyes then, need to protect Burrow and Jones seems to fit the style of directional drive 
blocking we were seeing late in the year under Turner.

[*SHRacerX*]

(04-03-2020, 11:28 AM)Synric Wrote: I'm not as high on the big 3 linebackers like everyone else.

Zack Baun is an edge defender that wants to switch to stack linebacker.

Patrick Queen is a solid coverage linebacker but is slow to read the run and his lack of length shows up in missed tackles in space.

Kenneth Murray is out of control he is all athleticism. Bad angles poor tackling and we have no idea what he will look like in coverage because Oklahoma rarely asked him to do it.

I think the guy that is criminally underrated is Troy Dye. We are talking about one of the better linebackers over the last 3 seasons. He has been a top coverage linebackers in college football, very good as a blitzer, and a tackling machine. His 2019 tape isn't as good as the previous two years is why he's falling but he also was playing with a broken thumb in a clubbed glove and a partially torn meniscus even then he still graded out as PFFs second highest linebacker 90.5.

This is where we should be focusing our efforts....analyzing what will most likely be the top of the day 3 LBs.  I seriously doubt Queen is still there and Murray doesn't fit their need.  I am betting they slide in Rd 2 and get offensive line help or WR.  It would have to be a really highly ranked WR like Mims or HIggins, but I think they would more likely look for a top tackle prospect that might be able to play guard and get the WR in Rd 3...hoping a guy like Bryan Edwards or Chase Claypool is still there.  

I think unless it is a guy like Queen, the Bengals will go for day 3 LBs like Troy Dye, Akeem Davis-Gaiter, Willie Gay, David Woodward, Jacob Phillips (can't believe he is being projected as a day 3 by some), and two guys I really like:  Logan Wilson and Evan Weaver.  I could see the Bengals adding someone like Akeem Davis-Gaither with a late3 rd round pick gained from sliding in rd 2, and then getting a guy like Logan Wilson in the top of Rd 4.  

[Schmitbuck]

(04-07-2020, 08:37 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: This is where we should be focusing our efforts....analyzing what will most likely be the top of the day 3 LBs.  I seriously doubt Queen is still there and Murray doesn't fit their need.  I am betting they slide in Rd 2 and get offensive line help or WR.  It would have to be a really highly ranked WR like Mims or HIggins, but I think they would more likely look for a top tackle prospect that might be able to play guard and get the WR in Rd 3...hoping a guy like Bryan Edwards or Chase Claypool is still there.  

I think unless it is a guy like Queen, the Bengals will go for day 3 LBs like Troy Dye, Akeem Davis-Gaiter, Willie Gay, David Woodward, Jacob Phillips (can't believe he is being projected as a day 3 by some), and two guys I really like:  Logan Wilson and Evan Weaver.  I could see the Bengals adding someone like Akeem Davis-Gaither with a late3 rd round pick gained from sliding in rd 2, and then getting a guy like Logan Wilson in the top of Rd 4.  

I agree. I think they have to trade down this year in round 2 and possibly 4. The advantage they get from coaching the Senior Bowl is magnified 10x over other years with the limited access teams have.  Honestly, the more picks in rounds 3-5 the better.

With the draft being online, I think we are going to be significantly fewer trades in general. And I think when teams regroup after days 1 & 2, they are going to overpay to trade up. The trade value charts might be useless at those spots this year. It seems this offseason might be the perfect storm for the Bengals.

Regarding LB and OL, some NFL network guys were tweeting yesterday that Isaiah Wilson & Willie Gay are shooting up draft boards - Wilson could be late 1st round & Gay in the high-mid 2nd. I've seen both of those players mocked to Cincy. I wonder if either of those guys would be options in round 2 now. 

[Goalpost]

There are really a lot of variables in play at pick 33. I think LB has to be the priority, but if the better player on the board is a WR or O-lineman you go that way. I've heard Kenny Anderson too many times in interviews saying a QB's best friend is his offensive line. No need to delve into it like it is rocket science. It just is.

[*SHRacerX*]

(04-07-2020, 11:09 AM)Schmitbuck Wrote: I agree. I think they have to trade down this year in round 2 and possibly 4. The advantage they get from coaching the Senior Bowl is magnified 10x over other years with the limited access teams have.  Honestly, the more picks in rounds 3-5 the better.

With the draft being online, I think we are going to be significantly fewer trades in general. And I think when teams regroup after days 1 & 2, they are going to overpay to trade up. The trade value charts might be useless at those spots this year. It seems this offseason might be the perfect storm for the Bengals.

Regarding LB and OL, some NFL network guys were tweeting yesterday that Isaiah Wilson & Willie Gay are shooting up draft boards - Wilson could be late 1st round & Gay in the high-mid 2nd. I've seen both of those players mocked to Cincy. I wonder if either of those guys would be options in round 2 now. 

So true about the Senior Bowl...and Wilson late first?  I'd be surprised as I think he is a RT or RG.  But who knows...only takes one team to love him

[Whatever]

(04-07-2020, 11:09 AM)Schmitbuck Wrote: I agree. I think they have to trade down this year in round 2 and possibly 4. The advantage they get from coaching the Senior Bowl is magnified 10x over other years with the limited access teams have.  Honestly, the more picks in rounds 3-5 the better.

With the draft being online, I think we are going to be significantly fewer trades in general. And I think when teams regroup after days 1 & 2, they are going to overpay to trade up. The trade value charts might be useless at those spots this year. It seems this offseason might be the perfect storm for the Bengals.

Regarding LB and OL, some NFL network guys were tweeting yesterday that Isaiah Wilson & Willie Gay are shooting up draft boards - Wilson could be late 1st round & Gay in the high-mid 2nd. I've seen both of those players mocked to Cincy. I wonder if either of those guys would be options in round 2 now. 

With our 2nd and 4th, you have to look long and hard at who's there.  There's very likely a 1st round talent sitting there at 33.  Is that worth passing up for a couple of day 3 picks?  Trading down in 4 isn't a good play because we already have a ton of bubble type players and that's what you're adding.  With most or all of OTA's wiped out, it's very likely that a lot of those 5-7 guys wind up outplayed by their vet counterparts and cut.

The way things are, you have to be skeptical of any player who is supposedly shooting up the draft boards.  There's really no reason for them to rising because there's no new information available to cause.  It's likely predraft smoke screens by teams and agents trying to get someone to bite.