Trading our 2021 First Round Pick.

[Weazzel80]

How much do you think our 2021 1st pick is worth? We were the worst team in the NFL last year so you could argue that our future picks are the most valuable.

I'm thinking we might be able to trade it straight for a late first rounder or use it to make a big trade up. Some team might not have full confidence in their pick because of how this off-season has been and might want to just get value next year.

The idea behind this would be to embrace the WIN NOW approach and help Burrow get off to a good start. Our window might be most open while Burrow is on his rookie contract so it makes sense to do whatever we can to surround him with premier players immediately so he can develop chemistry as fast as possible; especially since our top players AJ and Geno are getting old too. It's also a good move for evaluating Zac Taylor as a coach to make sure he's been giving an opportunity to succeed. Oh, and establishing a winning culture NOW is vital for this team in general considering how bad last year was.

I also like the fact that a move like this would be betting on ourselves, if we have a good season it would be a good move but if we suck again than we would be trading a top-5 pick for what ever we get for it. I don't think we'll suck though, I like what we've been doing this off-season and I think Burrow is going to be a game-changer for us.

[Big Boss]

Eh. Next year's first round pick doesn't hold a true value yet. We could be picking top 5 again, or maybe the team makes the playoffs and instead we are picking in the 20 range.

[Whatever]

(04-06-2020, 05:29 PM)Weazzel80 Wrote: How much do you think our 2021 1st pick is worth? We were the worst team in the NFL last year so you could argue that our future picks are the most valuable.

I'm thinking we might be able to trade it straight for a late first rounder or use it to make a big trade up. Some team might not have full confidence in their pick because of how this off-season has been and might want to just get value next year.

The idea behind this would be to embrace the WIN NOW approach and help Burrow get off to a good start. Our window might be most open while Burrow is on his rookie contract so it makes sense to do whatever we can to surround him with premier players immediately so he can develop chemistry as fast as possible; especially since our top players AJ and Geno are getting old too. It's also a good move for evaluating Zac Taylor as a coach to make sure he's been giving an opportunity to succeed. Oh, and establishing a winning culture NOW is vital for this team in general considering how bad last year was.

I also like the fact that a move like this would be betting on ourselves, if we have a good season it would be a good move but if we suck again than we would be trading a top-5 pick for what ever we get for it. I don't think we'll suck though, I like what we've been doing this off-season and I think Burrow is going to be a game-changer for us.

Why would you trade a pick in next year's draft for a worse pick in this year's draft when you have less info on prospects this year and you will likely lose a huge chunk of OTA's, limiting the immediate return on any pick you make this year?  If you want to win now,. you'd be better off spending the money you would have to allocate on that extra 1st to a vet like Clowney or Peters.

The other issue is that if things don't go according to plan and we wind up Top 5 next year, it's a strong looking QB class and you can trade down for a bunch of picks with Burrow in the fold.

[J24]

I would say multiple first RD picks + Multiple 2nd RD picks + a combination of third Rd picks or young players. All in all I would say we're looking at 6 to 10 high level Peace's back in return.

[SunsetBengal]

What inspired this question? Value is always relative to a situation or scenario. What did you have in mind, to cause the Bengals to trade next year's 1st round pick?

[*Synric*]

Bengals are no where near "Win Now mode" that says they are close to a deep playoff team. They aren't.

With the addition on defense through free agency and a possiblity of getting the best Quarterback in they draft they are still hurting in some obvious position groups. Also the Bengals are a young team and will likely need a season to jell together... In a year or 2? Yea now that is a decent chance with how they are going about their rebuild.

[*SHRacerX*]

(04-06-2020, 06:52 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: What inspired this question?  Value is always relative to a situation or scenario.  What did you have in mind, to cause the Bengals to trade next year's 1st round pick?

Not trying to put words in his mouth but say a player they had rated REALLY high, like top 10, fell to the range of pick 20.  That might make the trade worthwhile.  If it is someone that they have rated that high and a team like Jax that has multiple picks this year might prefer some future stock...Say a player like Isaiah Simmons?  

I know it is a crazy hypothetical but it is an interesting thought.  Shows "win now", fills a need with a really, really highly ranked player....although I don't think the Bengals would take nearly any LB in the first round, he may be an exception.  

[BenZoo2]

No thanks. Too much uncertainty regarding this year to give away next years 1. We may play a shortened season next year. With a rookie qb. That combination could lead to another top 5-10 pick next year. I’ll wait


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[Hammerstripes]

Whenever I've listened to this question on moving the chains, Pat Kirwan has always reasoned that teams look at next year's first as a mid round round first this year.

So, I would guess most, if not all GMS would probably value ours as anything between 10 and 16.

Now, one thing that I've thrown out there purely as hypothetical - what happens if the season gets cancelled? Then you more than likely have the #1 pick in next year's draft as well. Can you imagine the haul we would get for trading that #1??

[Hammerstripes]

(04-07-2020, 12:14 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: Not trying to put words in his mouth but say a player they had rated REALLY high, like top 10, fell to the range of pick 20.  That might make the trade worthwhile.  If it is someone that they have rated that high and a team like Jax that has multiple picks this year might prefer some future stock...Say a player like Isaiah Simmons?  

I know it is a crazy hypothetical but it is an interesting thought.  Shows "win now", fills a need with a really, really highly ranked player....although I don't think the Bengals would take nearly any LB in the first round, he may be an exception.  

That is the only guy that I would consider trading next year's first rounder for.  He's just such a difference maker and something we have never had at LB.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

I would trade next year’s first for K’lavon Chaisson as one example. He could rush the passer as a 3-4 OLB. He could play SAM in a 4-3 in running situations and RE on passing downs.

I would also consider it for a top OT or WR in this year’s class.

[McC]

(04-07-2020, 03:00 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: I would trade next year’s first for K’lavon Chaisson as one example. He could rush the passer as a 3-4 OLB. He could play SAM in a 4-3 in running situations and RE on passing downs.

I would also consider it for a top OT or WR in this year’s class.

Wouldn't it also take a pick or two in this year's draft?

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(04-07-2020, 04:11 PM)McC Wrote: Wouldn't it also take a pick or two in this year's draft?

That’s true. I’d be willing to throw in one mid-round or two late round picks or even swap picks.

Here’s a sim I did on first pick because it allows trades for free:

1/1 QB Joe Burrow
1/15 trade next year’s 1st and this year’s 3rd, OLB/DE K’lavon Chaisson
2/1 traded back multiple times for an extra 2nd, two 3rds, and one 4th
2/18 C/OG Lloyd Cushenberry
2/21 OT Lucas Niang
3/4 traded two late round 3rds and 4/1 to move up for ILB Malik Harrison
4/40 OG Shane Lemieux
5/1 DT Leki Fotu
6/1 WR Quez Watkins
7/1 LB Davion Taylor

[JerseyDD09]

(04-06-2020, 05:29 PM)Weazzel80 Wrote: How much do you think our 2021 1st pick is worth? We were the worst team in the NFL last year so you could argue that our future picks are the most valuable.

I'm thinking we might be able to trade it straight for a late first rounder or use it to make a big trade up. Some team might not have full confidence in their pick because of how this off-season has been and might want to just get value next year.

The idea behind this would be to embrace the WIN NOW approach and help Burrow get off to a good start. Our window might be most open while Burrow is on his rookie contract so it makes sense to do whatever we can to surround him with premier players immediately so he can develop chemistry as fast as possible; especially since our top players AJ and Geno are getting old too. It's also a good move for evaluating Zac Taylor as a coach to make sure he's been giving an opportunity to succeed. Oh, and establishing a winning culture NOW is vital for this team in general considering how bad last year was.

I also like the fact that a move like this would be betting on ourselves, if we have a good season it would be a good move but if we suck again than we would be trading a top-5 pick for what ever we get for it. I don't think we'll suck though, I like what we've been doing this off-season and I think Burrow is going to be a game-changer for us.

No way man. If Bengals are picking Top 5 again next year, they could land Burrow's WR mate in Jamarr Chase! You never know. But, I'm sure they'd want that familiar combination if at all possible.
It will most likely happen this year as well. Don't be surprised if Arizona ends up with Ceedee Lamb for Kyler Murray to team with again from Oklahoma. Shoot, Cleveland may even try to get Lamb for Baker as well.

[J24]

(04-06-2020, 06:15 PM)J24 Wrote: I would say multiple first RD picks + Multiple 2nd RD picks + a combination of third Rd picks or young players. All in all I would say we're looking at 6 to 10 high level Peace's back in return.

Ah shit thought this was about this year's draft. 
To answer the OP question the only way I trade next year's pick is if it's for Isiah Simmons.

[SunsetBengal]

(04-07-2020, 12:14 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: Not trying to put words in his mouth but say a player they had rated REALLY high, like top 10, fell to the range of pick 20.  That might make the trade worthwhile.  If it is someone that they have rated that high and a team like Jax that has multiple picks this year might prefer some future stock...Say a player like Isaiah Simmons?  

I know it is a crazy hypothetical but it is an interesting thought.  Shows "win now", fills a need with a really, really highly ranked player....although I don't think the Bengals would take nearly any LB in the first round, he may be an exception.  

Ok, I could get on board with something of that nature.  However, if Isaiah Simmons falls to #20, then there is some seriously negative information out there on him, that the general public isn't onto..     But, I get your point.

[*SHRacerX*]

(04-07-2020, 06:52 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Ok, I could get on board with something of that nature.  However, if Isaiah Simmons falls to #20, then there is some seriously negative information out there on him, that the general public isn't onto..     But, I get your point.

Not necessarily...it is all about needs and fit.  I personally wouldn't take an off-the-ball-LB in the top 10.  Those are picks for QB, OT, CB, and DE.  If they next group of 10 are all addressing different needs, you never know...Say, he dropped to 15, I might start calling Jax should he get to #20. 

But I hear ya, that has about a 1 in 1000 chance of happening.  

I heard there are prop bets on what round players will be drafted.  Sounds kind of fun.