Would you trade Mixon for an early 2nd?

[SladeX]

Ya know we always ask for links and sources when we post info. What are his links and sources? I'm skeptical... .
TBS
I'd go 10 million for Mixon.

[SunsetBengal]

(04-19-2020, 09:56 PM)SladeX Wrote: Ya know we always ask for links and sources when we post info. What are his links and sources? I'm  skeptical... .
TBS
I'd go 10 million for Mixon.

The source is listed clearly in the post..  Most board goers don't want to pay money to subscribe to The Athletic, so I'll accept quotes from subscribers as good enough.

[The Stars In Stripes]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.12up.com/amp/posts/eagles-bengals-trade-joe-mixon-would-give-carson-wentz-running-game-support-01e67ga61ahm

Philly dude seems to think a 3rd would do the trick!

Negative

[SladeX]

(04-19-2020, 10:12 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: The source is listed clearly in the post..  Most board goers don't want to pay money to subscribe to The Athletic, so I'll accept quotes from subscribers as good enough.

Not our source. Dehners source. Did the agent tell him this. Did someone from FO tell him the agent said this? I'm just curious how many degrees of separation  the are between  mixon and dehner.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(04-19-2020, 09:06 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Exactly, some want to make Mixon out that he's the second coming of Corey Dillon, and he's far from it.  After 3 years Dillon had 3,469 yards rushing, 19 rushing TDs, 767 receiving yards with another 2 TDs.  Dillon played on some of the shittiest Bengal teams that I have ever witnessed, and he was the only shining light at times.  Joe Mixon?  Pfft!  He's not a "generational talent", in fact he's quite easily replacable.

He’s no Dillion, you’re right about that, but “quite easily replaceable?” Nah. What he’s done behind a terrible OL is extremely impressive. Plenty of RB’s would look completely mediocre behind those guys.

[*ochocincos*]

(04-16-2020, 10:32 PM)Kingslayer Wrote: I think the man is worth paying but not anywhere near 16M.  I wouldn't go more than 10 at the most and even that is really too much

To justify that much cash, a RB nowadays essentially has to produce 1700+ yards between rushing and receiving, or basically a 1000 yard rusher plus a WR2.
Only 5 RBs are making $10+ mill a year and all have exceeded that 1700 yard mark.
McCaffrey, Bell, David Johnson, and Zeke have all had 2000+ yard seasons at least once. Henry has been the only one who hasn't. 


Joe Mixon has yet to hit 1500 yards in a season.
Mixon is more in the Melvin Gordon $8-10 mill a year range (currently).

[fredtoast]

(04-19-2020, 08:03 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: This seems like an exceptionally blatant made up Fred Stat. Lets look...

Leonard is so cute sometimes.  He thinks it is more accurate to look at just four seasons instead of the last ten.

Here is the list of 27 second round RBs over the last decade.  Only Le'Veon Bell, Nick Chubb, and Dalvin Cook average more than Mixon's 66.6 yards per game.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/draft-finder.cgi?request=1&year_min=2010&year_max=2019&type=&draft_round_min=2&draft_round_max=2&draft_slot_min=1&draft_slot_max=500&pick_type=overall&league_id=&team_id=&pos%5B%5D=rb&college_id=&conference=any&show=all&order_by=rush_yds

[fredtoast]

(04-19-2020, 09:06 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote:  Joe Mixon?  Pfft!  He's not a "generational talent", in fact he's quite easily replacable.

Mixon is one of only 3 NFL RBs with 1100 yards each of the last two seasons.  And he has done that behind some pretty weak offensive lines.

It is silly to claim he is "easily replaceable". 

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(04-20-2020, 03:54 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Leonard is so cute sometimes.  He thinks it is more accurate to look at just four seasons instead of the last ten.

Here is the list of 27 round RBs over the last decade.  Only Le'Veon Bell, Nick Chubb, and Dalvin Cook average more than Mixon's 66.6 yards per game.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/draft-finder.cgi?request=1&year_min=2010&year_max=2019&type=&draft_round_min=2&draft_round_max=2&draft_slot_min=1&draft_slot_max=500&pick_type=overall&league_id=&team_id=&pos%5B%5D=rb&college_id=&conference=any&show=all&order_by=rush_yds

Yes it's more accurate to look at 4 seasons instead of 10 because Mixon has only played 3 years and NFL careers are short for RBs. I probably should have just limited it to 3 years rather than 4. 10 years would only be a good window if you limited it to just the first 3-4 years of their careers, because Mixon is only 3 years in. Instead you're comparing players who had the decline of their career already to a guy who hasn't.

Todd Gurley was one of the best RBs in football in his first 4 years. Then his knees got shot and he ran for 400 less yards in 2019 compared to 2018 despite playing 1 more game. 

Doug Martin averaged 77.7 YPG his first four years in the league, then 44.3 YPG his final 3. That averages out to be 63.8 YPG for his career. Worse than Mixon, but through 3 years he had a better career than Mixon.

- - - - - - -
By your list, you think Joe Mixon has been better than Derrick Henry in their careers. Henry has averaged 19 less rushing yards per season than Mixon, but has done it while getting .6 more yards per carry than Mixon. 4.2 vs 4.8

There's nobody (or at least nobody sane) that would have traded away Henry for Mixon so far in their careers.


It's almost like there's more to comparing RBs than just YPG if you want to get an accurate portrayal of the situation..... Unless you just want to make Fred Stats.

[fredtoast]

(04-20-2020, 04:18 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I probably should have just limited it to 3 years rather than 4. 10 years would only be a good window if you limited it to just the first 3-4 years of their careers, because Mixon is only 3 years in. Instead you're comparing players who had the decline of their career already to a guy who hasn't.

Maybe you should look at some numbers instead of just talking out your ass.

If I limit the production to just the first three seasons of their career then only ONE second round running back (Eddie Lacey) has been more productive than Mixon over the last decade.