5th Year Options Picked up/Declined

[Luvnit2]

Did you know 30 teams have made a decision on whether to pick up the 5th year option. Of the 30, 18 said yes and 12 said no. Of the top 10 picks a surprising 50% (%) said no. Ross was not picked up by us. Trubisky was not picked up by the Bears highlighting what Fred always says how hard it is to predict success in the draft, eve in round 1 with a QB

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001111914/article/fifthyear-option-tracker-for-2017-firstround-picks

I know many hated the Ross pick and are jumping for joy he failed to make you look good, but the facts show it was a tough draft to pick a winner, not by us, but many others as well.

[Essex Johnson]

This is also why draft ratings mean very little.. "Potential means you have not done crap yet" Burrow and any other 2020 draft picks falls into that.. now the higher the pick the perceived better chance you have that "their potential" if it pans out will equate to very good player but in the end the History of 1st round picks is littered with busts or not a good return on investment..... All Teams have had them.. we just have to hope Burrow does not end up those two ways..

[McC]

This is the NFL being a copycat league. Things run in waves. A team has a good idea, other teams follow suit.

Also, the way the process is structured, with the option being a fairly high number, this is probably the way teams will play it from now on. Unless the player in question has been elite or close to it, options will be declined.

[Gdale_Bengal]

I understood why they picked Ross, but he is way too injury prone to be a top 10 selection.

Too bad. All that talent in a weak body.

[*ochocincos*]

(05-04-2020, 11:43 AM)Gdale_Bengal Wrote: I understood why they picked Ross, but he is way too injury prone to be a top 10 selection.

Too bad. All that talent in a weak body.

One has to think that Mike Williams and Corey Davis being drafted ahead of the Bengals played a factor in taking Ross top 10, right?
Maybe they really were considering trading down to 15-20 range but felt they had to take Ross since two WRs went so quickly.
Regardless, Ross's big concern was durability, and it hasn't been in his favor.
I hope he stays healthy this year and can put up 700+ yards to show he can be a valuable contributor, but I understand why the Bengals declined the option.

[Luvnit2]

(05-04-2020, 11:50 AM)ochocincos Wrote: One has to think that Mike Williams and Corey Davis being drafted ahead of the Bengals played a factor in taking Ross top 10, right?
Maybe they really were considering trading down to 15-20 range but felt they had to take Ross since two WRs went so quickly.
Regardless, Ross's big concern was durability, and it hasn't been in his favor.
I hope he stays healthy this year and can put up 700+ yards to show he can be a valuable contributor, but I understand why the Bengals declined the option.

I would not even considered picking up his option and I get why a guy drafted 9th is considered a bust. The shocking part to me was 5 of them in top 9 drafted no option picked up. Lots of misses in that draft in top 10.

Corey Davis is one not picked up. 3rd pick of draft DL from SF also no option picked up.

Then you look later in the draft and see the great pics by other teams. We missed and missed badly, so did a lot of others.

[*ochocincos*]

(05-04-2020, 01:03 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: I would not even considered picking up his option and I get why a guy drafted 9th is considered a bust. The shocking part to me was 5 of them in top 9 drafted no option picked up. Lots of misses in that draft in top 10.

Corey Davis is one not picked up. 3rd pick of draft DL from SF also no option picked up.

Then you look later in the draft and see the great pics by other teams. We missed and missed badly, so did a lot of others.

Absolutely.

Let's look at the guys most were considering for Bengals:
- John Ross
- Solomon Thomas
- Derek Barnett
- OJ Howard
- Mike Williams
- Corey Davis
- Leonard Fournette
- Malik Hooker
- Jonathan Allen
- Hasaan Reddick

These are the guys I remember most mocked to the Bengals. Practically no one was projecting a QB to the Bengals, so don't even bring Mahomes into the discussion. It was never a consideration by the Bengals.

None of the pass rushers listed have been double-digit sack guys. Fournette has underwhelmed. The WRs haven't been elite. Hooker hasn't become a ball hawk FS.

[*Nately120*]

I wonder how many Bears fans go overboard telling the "haters" to eat crow when Trubisky has a good game once in a blue moon. You know Trubisky and Ross are gonna go to NE after this year and win like 4 SBs.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(05-04-2020, 04:47 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Absolutely.

Let's look at the guys most were considering for Bengals:
- John Ross
- Solomon Thomas
- Derek Barnett
- OJ Howard
- Mike Williams
- Corey Davis
- Leonard Fournette
- Malik Hooker
- Jonathan Allen
- Hasaan Reddick

These are the guys I remember most mocked to the Bengals. Practically no one was projecting a QB to the Bengals, so don't even bring Mahomes into the discussion. It was never a consideration by the Bengals.

None of the pass rushers listed have been double-digit sack guys. Fournette has underwhelmed. The WRs haven't been elite. Hooker hasn't become a ball hawk FS.

I was on record wanting to take Derek Barnett, and while he hasn’t put up big numbers yet, he’s one of the players that is actually getting their 5th year picked up. He had a huge clutch play in the Super Bowl, too.

[Essex Johnson]

(05-04-2020, 04:56 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: I was on record wanting to take Derek Barnett, and while he hasn’t put up big numbers yet, he’s one of the players that is actually getting their 5th year picked up. He had a huge clutch play in the Super Bowl, too.

He has shown improvement and was hurt most of 2018 but correct has not been a big splash for 14th pick.. Hubbard pick the next year in round 3 looks like a steal compared to Barnett  with pick 14 

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(05-04-2020, 11:06 AM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Did you know 30 teams have made a decision on whether to pick up the 5th year option. Of the 30, 18 said yes and 12 said no. Of the top 10 picks a surprising 50% (%) said no. Ross was not picked up by us. Trubisky was not picked up by the Bears highlighting what Fred always says how hard it is to predict success in the draft, eve in round 1 with a QB

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001111914/article/fifthyear-option-tracker-for-2017-firstround-picks

I know many hated the Ross pick and are jumping for joy he failed to make you look good, but the facts show it was a tough draft to pick a winner, not by us, but many others as well.

Not surprising.  Historically, the experts are right about 50% of the time in the first round and their success rates get worse with each successive round.  Just shows that arguing over whether a player is a top 5 or top 10 pick versus a low first round pick is pretty pointless.  Even the experts are making educated guesses which are wrong more often than not.

[Luvnit2]

(05-04-2020, 06:05 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: Not surprising.  Historically, the experts are right about 50% of the time in the first round and their success rates get worse with each successive round.  Just shows that arguing over whether a player is a top 5 or top 10 pick versus a low first round pick is pretty pointless.  Even the experts are making educated guesses which are wrong more often than not.

Do you have a fact based report to show us 50% of 1st round picks are not successful?

But bigger question, how about % of top 10 picks are not successful? In 2015, we had 5 of 9 which is even worse than 50%.

[*ochocincos*]

(05-04-2020, 06:09 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Do you have a fact based report to show us 50% of 1st round picks are not successful?

But bigger question, how about % of top 10 picks are not successful? In 2015, we had 5 of 9 which is even worse than 50%.

What determines successful for a Top 10 pick vs a 1st rounder, 2nd rounder, 3rd rounder, etc? 

I'm actually asking, not intending to be snarky.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(05-04-2020, 06:09 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Do you have a fact based report to show us 50% of 1st round picks are not successful?

But bigger question, how about % of top 10 picks are not successful? In 2015, we had 5 of 9 which is even worse than 50%.

That comes from Bill Polian.  He has given lots of interviews discussing it so I'm sure you can Google it for more information to avoid my confirmational bias.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(05-04-2020, 06:29 PM)ochocincos Wrote: What determines successful for a Top 10 pick vs a 1st rounder, 2nd rounder, 3rd rounder, etc? 

I'm actually asking, not intending to be snarky.

That's a good question and different teams define it differently.  That's another thing Polian discussed when trying to measure draft success.

[Circleville Guy]

(05-04-2020, 11:06 AM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Did you know 30 teams have made a decision on whether to pick up the 5th year option. Of the 30, 18 said yes and 12 said no. Of the top 10 picks a surprising 50% (%) said no. Ross was not picked up by us. Trubisky was not picked up by the Bears highlighting what Fred always says how hard it is to predict success in the draft, eve in round 1 with a QB

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001111914/article/fifthyear-option-tracker-for-2017-firstround-picks

I know many hated the Ross pick and are jumping for joy he failed to make you look good, but the facts show it was a tough draft to pick a winner, not by us, but many others as well.

You honestly believe that guys on here would rather be right than win? I would hope that most of us aren’t that warped. When we predicted a losing season, we definitely would’ve rather have been watching the team in the playoffs.

[BengalChris]

(05-04-2020, 11:06 AM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Did you know 30 teams have made a decision on whether to pick up the 5th year option. Of the 30, 18 said yes and 12 said no. Of the top 10 picks a surprising 50% (%) said no. Ross was not picked up by us. Trubisky was not picked up by the Bears highlighting what Fred always says how hard it is to predict success in the draft, eve in round 1 with a QB

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001111914/article/fifthyear-option-tracker-for-2017-firstround-picks

I know many hated the Ross pick and are jumping for joy he failed to make you look good, but the facts show it was a tough draft to pick a winner, not by us, but many others as well.

A lot of very good players on that list had their options picked up though. At $18M it would have been foolish to pick up Ross' option. He started off with red flags and they just kept coming.

Trubisky was better at QB than Ross has been at WR.

 

[Luvnit2]

(05-05-2020, 12:12 AM)BengalChris Wrote: A lot of very good players on that list had their options picked up though. At $18M it would have been foolish to pick up Ross' option. He started off with red flags and they just kept coming.

Trubisky was better at QB than Ross has been at WR.

 

I stated in this thread Ross option should not be picked up.

The issue with Trubisky is he was more than a top 10 pick, the Bears traded up and gave up even more to get to that pick. If you factor that in, I think he has been a bigger disappointment tan any of the top 10 picks (or biggest misses).

[McC]

(05-05-2020, 10:20 AM)Luvnit2 Wrote: I stated in this thread Ross option should not be picked up.

The issue with Trubisky is he was more than a top 10 pick, the Bears traded up and gave up even more to get to that pick. If you factor that in, I think he has been a bigger disappointment tan any of the top 10 picks (or biggest misses).

A further issue with the drafting of Trubisky, in addition to the overall cost is that they could have had Mahomes or Watson.

Can't get on them too bad about Mahomes, since really only one team go it right on him.

But Watson is another story.  They deserve all the blame in the world for that bad choice.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

Always backed the Ross pick but he simply has not lived up to a top 10 pick by any means.

He isn't worth that much dough at this point, good move not picking up his 5th year Option.