Forecasting 2020

[BURROWorBUST]

(05-06-2020, 11:22 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: Excellent points, all.  I think the best thing aside from the talent the Bengals acquired in both the draft and FA is the KIND of players they acquired:  Winners.  Leaders.  Team Captains.  This can't be understated that almost every FA was coming from a playoff team and almost all of the draft picks were team captains.  Some skeptics (you know who you are) will say that this won't change a thing if you can't play football, and I understand that point, but I really, really like the idea of bringing in guys that have that in their DNA.  

Burrow, perhaps being the most successful overall of all of the players brought in, will be leading this culture.  

YES!!!!

1000x THIS!!

It's very clear the kind of culture that Zac is trying build here. And you're 100% correct. That going to matter as much as anything else. We want guys who don't accept losing. That starts at the top. And they showed that they don't accept losing when kept who they kept and cut who they cut. I like Dre K as a person. And I like Andy. But they weren't getting the job done. 

The message has been sent, and it has been received as acknowledged by Jesse Bates and Carlos. If your performance inhibits this team from winning, we will find a replacement for you. That's why this is a NEW DAY.

[fredtoast]

(05-05-2020, 03:32 PM)Geno_Can_Dunk Wrote: Here's the flaw I see. This extensive analysis shows us how we improved upon what we were last year. But we were the worst team in the league last year. Most NFL teams use the offseason to improve their roster (except for teams in cap hell like the Steelers), so just improving upon what you were doesn't by definition translate to more wins. It's more like a margin utility thing - the team that improves more than other teams improve will see an improvement in record, and even then marginally.

-It is impossible for every team to add talent in free agency because every quality free agent signed by one team is a loss for their former team.  We added talent while not losing any quality free agents.


-Every other team can not improve by having a Pro Bowl player return from injury.

-Every other team can not improve by adding an extra first round pick that did not play last year.

So we really should improve a lot more than most other etams.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(05-06-2020, 11:30 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: There is more to it than that:  Last year, Burrow would usually operate out of an empty backfield.  When the opponent didn't blitz, he could see the four rushers and any that might be a threat and he would use his pocket awareness to navigate the traffic while keeping his eyes downfield.  That amounted to a longer time to throw.  

When the opponent WOULD blitz, he was even more deadly.  He could find the open man quicker, and hold on to the ball just long enough for him to make his last break and deliver a strike down the field.

The Bengals don't need to speed up Burrow's clock, they need to adapt to the scheme that best fits his skill set and I have every confidence they will.  

As excited as I am to see Burrow air it out to Green, Ross, or Higgins deep...the thing I am actually most excited to see is the simple pass to the RB out of the backfield.  When there are three WRs stretching the field, a simple checkdown to one of the RBs (not being wasted in blitz pickup) can yield a low-risk, high return completion.  I hope our RBs get a lot of passes out of the backfield and force LBs and Safeties to try and tackle them in space.  

I saw the same last season at LSU with Burrow. Not like Burrow doesn't have a quick release, he does, the thing is he didn't
need it cause he can manipulate Defenders and hit his man with extremely accurate passes or take off. It is all planned. More 
passes to Mixon and the rest of the Backs is what I expect to see, this is something Burrow did tons of at LSU last year and we
have very good pass catching RB's.

(05-06-2020, 11:46 AM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Yep

How many times over the last two or three seasons have we seen Dalton zip a pass to Boyd for a 20 yard gain only to see him put the next one at Mixon's feet on a swing pass and throw 5 feet over Eifert's head on a comeback killing the drive ?

I'm anxious to see if we can't sustain drives much better with Burrow ?

(05-06-2020, 11:53 AM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: One of my biggest complaints on Dalton was his ball placement. Sure he got his passes out super fast towards the right receiver, but they would be high, low, behind, etc. Occasionally he would put it on the money, but it seemed more likely AJ would have to make a circus catch on a slant.

Burrow has shown to 'hand the ball off' to his receivers. A simple slant can become an 80 yard gain if you hit a guy in stride. I'm thinking this improvement will help us a lot. Excited to see.

Very good points about Dalton's ball placement compared to Burrow's. Burrow throws into space all the while hitting his man in
stride, something Dalton could very rarely do. This to go along with the way he uses the RB's in the passing game a long with 
the TE's is something I expect to see much more of, than nail the big time weapons in the middle of the field.

[Bengalholic]

(05-06-2020, 11:27 AM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Great analysis by OP.

It does amaze me those who think winning 5 to 8 games is acceptable. We have not won a playoff game going on 30 years and we should be realistic and patient??????????

Sorry, they blew up the roster. They get a possible HOF receiver back to go with a very good group.

If we don't win 10 games, just one more bad year. Then this time next year, we will say it is OK to have another bad year.

This is not your normal 2 win team, the 2019 team was decimated with injuries on offense. The offense then could not control the clock and caused our suspect defense back on the field, then due to fatigue, the suspect defense lost games a fresh defense would have won.

Ask yourself a question, would you accept 5 to 8 wins if AD was still the QB and be happy? Be honest, no BS. I say most of you would not if you are being honest.

The thing is brother, going from a 2 win team to a 10 or more win team in one year is a tough chore. Take a look at the 31 times in NFL history that a team has gone 2-14 and then what they did the following year (listed in order of success):

11-5 (0-1)
11-5 (0-1)
9-7
9-7
5-4 (0-1)
8-8
7-8-1
7-9
6-10
6-10
6-10
6-10
6-10
6-10
6-10
6-10
5-11
5-11
4-12
4-12
4-12
4-12
4-12
3-13
3-13
3-13
3-13
2-14
2-14
2-14
1-15

As you can see, the chances of winning 10 or more games this year has about a 6% chance of happening if you go off the history. That's not saying that it's impossible or that they can't find a way to do it, but if they do, they're definitely bucking the odds. 

This is just my opinion, but I think it's a mistake to judge this season on purely wins and losses. There are a lot of things to take into account...a rookie QB, a 2nd year HC still finding his way, the development of the o-line and LBing corps, the evolution of the offense, the coming together of all the new players on defense, etc. 

There's going to be a lot of moving parts this season (assuming there is one) and I thinks it's going to require patience - as Joe has already talked about - for everything to start taking shape and becoming a more polished product. I do think everything is headed in a very positive direction though and they're doing all the right things to get this team back into playoff contention. It just might not be this year.

I have no real guess at how many games they'll win, but I think we're going to have a lot of fun watching them this year.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(05-06-2020, 02:51 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: The thing is brother, going from a 2 win team to a 10 or more win team in one year is a tough chore. Take a look at the 31 times in NFL history that a team has gone 2-14 and then what they did the following year (listed in order of success):

11-5 (0-1)
11-5 (0-1)
9-7
9-7
5-4 (0-1)
8-8
7-8-1
7-9
6-10
6-10
6-10
6-10
6-10
6-10
6-10
6-10
5-11
5-11
4-12
4-12
4-12
4-12
4-12
3-13
3-13
3-13
3-13
2-14
2-14
2-14
1-15

As you can see, the chances of winning 10 or more games this year has about a 6% chance of happening if you go off the history. That's not saying that it's impossible or that they can't find a way to do it, but if they do, they're definitely bucking the odds. 

This is just my opinion, but I think it's a mistake to judge this season on purely wins and losses. There are a lot of things to take into account...a rookie QB, a 2nd year HC still finding his way, the development of the o-line and LBing corps, the evolution of the offense, the coming together of all the new players on defense, etc. 

There's going to be a lot of moving parts this season (assuming there is one) and I thinks it's going to require patience - as Joe has already talked about - for everything to start taking shape and becoming a more polished product. I do think everything is headed in a very positive direction though and they're doing all the right things to get this team back into playoff contention. It just might not be this year.

This is all very logical Holic. Cannot argue with any of this, I just look at Burrow and go anything is possible with this guy.

[Bengalholic]

(05-06-2020, 02:54 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: This is all very logical Holic. Cannot argue with any of this, I just look at Burrow and go anything is possible with this guy.

Yeah, I mean in today's NFL, anything is definitely possible. Hell the Falcon's went from 1 win to 11 wins in a season and the 49ers went from 4 wins to the SB, and there have been numerous teams go from worst in their division to winning it the next year, so there's always a chance and I'm excited as hell to see how it plays it this year.

I'm just trying to show that it's a pretty big task to go from 2 wins to 10 wins, and that the season shouldn't automatically be deemed a failure if they don't have a winning season. But, like I said in another post, if things can come together quickly and they can gel on both sides of the ball...this season could get very interesting. 

[motoarch]

(05-06-2020, 07:30 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: That deal fell through. He’s still a FA.

ah whatever.  point is he wasnt cut

[Cicero]

8-8 is my expectation. Steady improvement over the course of the season is what I want to see. An amazing run is always possible and this team is much better than the 2-14 record so I wont rule it out, I just see it as unlikely.

[Luvnit2]

(05-06-2020, 11:35 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: So one day Andy Dalton gives us the best chance to win due to a shortened offseason, and the next Burrow is expected to win 10 games...

You’re all over the place.

How so?

I would expect AD to win 10 games in 2020 if he were the starting QB for the Bengals.

Would you expect AD to win 5 to 8 or 10?

Simple question for you.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(05-06-2020, 03:10 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: Yeah, I mean in today's NFL, anything is definitely possible. Hell the Falcon's went from 1 win to 11 wins in a season and the 49ers went from 4 wins to the SB, and there have been numerous teams go from worst in their division to winning it the next year, so there's always a chance and I'm excited as hell to see how it plays it this year.

I'm just trying to show that it's a pretty big task to go from 2 wins to 10 wins, and that the season shouldn't automatically be deemed a failure if they don't have a winning season. But, like I said in another post, if things can come together quickly and they can gel on both sides of the ball...this season could get very interesting. 

All true, have to also point out this Free Agency where we went out and got proven players on Defense and at OG.

I think this combined with Burrow and this Draft we had gives us a good shot at the very least at being around .500.

But the players will have to improve and most of all the coaching to help the players out has to improve big time.

[Luvnit2]

(05-06-2020, 03:10 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: Yeah, I mean in today's NFL, anything is definitely possible. Hell the Falcon's went from 1 win to 11 wins in a season and the 49ers went from 4 wins to the SB, and there have been numerous teams go from worst in their division to winning it the next year, so there's always a chance and I'm excited as hell to see how it plays it this year.

I'm just trying to show that it's a pretty big task to go from 2 wins to 10 wins, and that the season shouldn't automatically be deemed a failure if they don't have a winning season. But, like I said in another post, if things can come together quickly and they can gel on both sides of the ball...this season could get very interesting. 

I never said it was easy, I never said it was against the odds.

I did ask a question, if AD were the starting QB would you and others be happy if we won 5 to 8 games in 2020? I would expect the same from AD win wise as I would from Job B. The name of the game is winning. Losers always have excuses, winners do not need them. It appears to me the excuses are already starting.

I have faith in Joe Burrow, based on these predictions in here, I wonder if others do. We watched AD take a bad team to the playoffs as a rookie. I think Burrow can do it also when you add in he has far better weapons. All my predictions are based on any team (us and others) being healthy. We know there will be injuries, last year it was our offense and in particular OL and our stud WR. Both are back so let's see how it goes with Joe.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(05-06-2020, 04:54 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: I never said it was easy, I never said it was against the odds.

I did ask a question, if AD were the starting QB would you and others be happy if we won 5 to 8 games in 2020? I would expect the same from AD win wise as I would from Job B. The name of the game is winning. Losers always have excuses, winners do not need them. It appears to me the excuses are already starting.

I have faith in Joe Burrow, based on these predictions in here, I wonder if others do. We watched AD take a bad team to the playoffs as a rookie. I think Burrow can do it also when you add in he has far better weapons. All my predictions are based on any team (us and others) being healthy. We know there will be injuries, last year it was our offense and in particular OL and our stud WR. Both are back so let's see how it goes with Joe.

Lots of good points, just think people are being skeptical cause of the rookie QB but it IS Joe Burrow...

If Dalton can do what he did his rookie year with AJ Green...

Burrow can definitely do as good or better with AJ Green (if healthy), Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins and Ross.

Not even mentioning Joe Mixon. The O-line will have to play decent and also stay healthy though.

[Luvnit2]

(05-06-2020, 05:04 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Lots of good points, just think people are being skeptical cause of the rookie QB but it IS Joe Burrow...

If Dalton can do what he did his rookie year with AJ Green...

Burrow can definitely do as good or better with AJ Green (if healthy), Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins and Ross.

Not even mentioning Joe Mixon. The O-line will have to play decent and also stay healthy though.

Always lots of ifs, but If Green returns, if Jonah can stabilize LT position, if Higgns can contribute and we keep our 4 WR's healthy and if Joe B. is an upgrade from AD in year #1, then this offense can make a hug jump from 2019.

The additions of defense should help the defense be better putting the offense back on the field more. Our special teams have been good so no reason to believe they won;t be solid. I gave Zac a pass for last year, not this year, he has to coach better.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(05-06-2020, 06:15 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Always lots of ifs, but If Green returns, if Jonah can stabilize LT position, if Higgns can contribute and we keep our 4 WR's healthy and if Joe B. is an upgrade from AD in year #1, then this offense can make a hug jump from 2019.

The additions of defense should help the defense be better putting the offense back on the field more. Our special teams have been good so no reason to believe they won;t be solid. I gave Zac a pass for last year, not this year, he has to coach better.

I think both the Offense and Defense make a huge jump unless devastating injuries hit us once again.

Coaching in the end is key as when injuries happen the best coaches know how to coach the next man up.

[Wes Mantooth]

(05-05-2020, 03:18 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: When you look at the last time time the Bengals were 2-14, they also had a pretty damn good off-season (probably the best until this one) and they went 8-8. To me, that would seem to be a fair marker to judge where this team is. If they're around that, and look like they're making substantial progress, I would be satisfied...just like I was with Marvin's crew in 2003.

This is exactly where I'm at.  That was a 6 game improvement, and the 2011 team, that so many love, was a 5 game improvement (from 4 to 9 wins)

I think if they can accomplish that, with a rookie QB and a ton of new faces, then that would be fantastic.  I also believe that's pretty close to their ceiling.  Perhaps they could stretch to 9, but I'm not really concerned with that. Nor would I be if they topped out at 7.  But I do think that 2003 season is a nice reference point, and something to realistically strive for.

Fwiw, 2003 might just very well be the most fun I've ever had as a fan these last 20 years.  Sure, 2005 was amazing.  And the playoff stretch from 2011 through 2015 was enjoyable. But 2003 almost had a magical feeling to it, as cheesy as that sounds. Obviously a lot of that had to do with the disaster that was the previous decade. But I think a lot also had to do with a bunch of new players and coaches.

That year was just a blast.  There was so much newness surrounding the team, and it felt like, and was, a completely new era as well.  It was fresh, exciting, pick your word.

I'll never forget that Peter Warrick return against KC.  Some of those games are still my fondest memories of the Marvin Lewis era.  And Carson wasn't even playing yet, which made the future seem all that more bright.  Good times!

Yup, 8-8 is, i think a pretty realistic goal to set.  I'm looking more for progress and hope moving forward from this season than win totals.  I think .500 serves as a nice balance to that, and is a realistic achievement.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(05-06-2020, 08:51 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: This is exactly where I'm at.  That was a 6 game improvement, and the 2011 team, that so many love, was a 5 game improvement (from 4 to 9 wins)

I think if they can accomplish that, with a rookie QB and a ton of new faces, then that would be fantastic.  I also believe that's pretty close to their ceiling.  Perhaps they could stretch to 9, but I'm not really concerned with that. Nor would I be if they topped out at 7.  But I do think that 2003 season is a nice reference point, and something to realistically strive for.

Fwiw, 2003 might just very well be the most fun I've ever had as a fan these last 20 years.  Sure, 2005 was amazing.  And the playoff stretch from 2011 through 2015 was enjoyable.  But 2003 almost had a magical feeling to it, as cheesy as that sounds.  Obviously a lot of that had to do with the disaster that was the previous decade. But I think a lot also had to do with a bunch of new players and coaches.

That year was just a blast.  There was so much newness surrounding the team, and it felt like, and was, a completely new era as well.  It was fresh, exciting, pick your word.

I'll never forget that Peter Warrick return against KC.  Some of those games are still my fondest memories of the Marvin Lewis era.  And Carson wasn't even playing yet, which made the future seem all that more bright.  Good times!

Yup, 8-8 is, i think a pretty realistic goal to set.  I'm looking more for progress and hope moving forward from this season than win totals.  I think .500 serves as a nice balance to that, and is a realistic achievement.

All very understandable and a great post Wes. Here is to the future.

[*SHRacerX*]

(05-06-2020, 08:51 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: This is exactly where I'm at.  That was a 6 game improvement, and the 2011 team, that so many love, was a 5 game improvement (from 4 to 9 wins)

I think if they can accomplish that, with a rookie QB and a ton of new faces, then that would be fantastic.  I also believe that's pretty close to their ceiling.  Perhaps they could stretch to 9, but I'm not really concerned with that. Nor would I be if they topped out at 7.  But I do think that 2003 season is a nice reference point, and something to realistically strive for.

Fwiw, 2003 might just very well be the most fun I've ever had as a fan these last 20 years.  Sure, 2005 was amazing.  And the playoff stretch from 2011 through 2015 was enjoyable.  But 2003 almost had a magical feeling to it, as cheesy as that sounds.  Obviously a lot of that had to do with the disaster that was the previous decade. But I think a lot also had to do with a bunch of new players and coaches.

That year was just a blast.  There was so much newness surrounding the team, and it felt like, and was, a completely new era as well.  It was fresh, exciting, pick your word.

I'll never forget that Peter Warrick return against KC.  Some of those games are still my fondest memories of the Marvin Lewis era.  And Carson wasn't even playing yet, which made the future seem all that more bright.  Good times!

Yup, 8-8 is, i think a pretty realistic goal to set.  I'm looking more for progress and hope moving forward from this season than win totals.  I think .500 serves as a nice balance to that, and is a realistic achievement.

While I refuse to join the "realistic" team (I would rather be a dreamer), this is dead on.  This team. This season.  It just has such a unique feel to it.  I am so excited to see what Taylor can do with these weapons and a better line.  I am so excited to see what Lou can do with the infusion of talent and some speedy draft picks.  I am so excited to see Joe Fricking Burrow take over the quarterbacking duties.  I'm just so excited.