Just how good is the AFC North ?

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(05-06-2020, 12:40 PM)Nately120 Wrote: Hard to say, Kitchens was awful and they lost 4 games by a score or less so things could turn around. 

I will say it's pure off-season fandom where our QB is set for 10+ years and the other 3 teams are all going to have their QBs peter out very soon.


Burrow is bodacious 
Ben is busted
Baker is a bust
Jackson is beat up and has the shelf life of an XFL RB

I liked the comments of "oh, but they played a soft schedule last year"... yeah, you know in part why it was soft? Because they played the Bengals twice. The Bengals are 2-10 against the division the last two years yet there's people automatically assuming two wins against the Browns (the Bengals are 1-3 against them the last two years) and discounting the Steelers who are on a 9 game winning streak against the Bengals.

[Wes Mantooth]

(05-06-2020, 11:18 AM)bengalfan74 Wrote: 1.) I doubt we see Big Jen of 5 years ago coming back. 2.) Big Jen is at the point in his career that QB's not named Brady drop off.

I'm not sure how Ben will look with a year of rust.  And he's definitely getting older.  That said...

1.) His last year played (2 years ago) he posted career highs in both yardage and TD's.  His completion % was his 2nd highest of his career, and his QBR ranked in the top 3.

So I'm not sure I understand the refernce point of a need to see him from 5 years ago.  To me this makes it sounds as if he's been on a steady decline over that span, that 5 years ago was the "real Ben" and that as of more recent he's not.

2018 was arguably his greatest season as a Pro.  So the question should be if he's close to 2 years ago, not 5.

2.)  Drew Brees has posted back to back to back 100+ QBR seasons since he was the age Ben is now.  At age 40, two years older than Ben his now, he posted a career high rating of 115.7, with 4000k+ yards and a 32 TD vs 5 INT split.

Peyton Manning, at the same age as Ben is now, posted 4,700 yards with 39 TD's and lead his team to 12-4 record, earning MVP votes and being ranked #5 in the Top 100 list.

Even the often forgotten Phillip Rivers, who has very recently finally "aged" out of being a great QB, was posting 4,300 yards, with 32 TD's and a 105 rating at the same age Ben is currently.

Tom Brady is not the only guy who can claim there's success past 35 for QB's.  The league has greatly changed due to the likes of not just Brady, but Brees, Manning, and yes, even Ben.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Like i said, maybe he falls off.  Maybe the injury is the nail in the coffin.  Maybe it's simply age, rust, or combination of every thing.  But I don't think it's fair to say he's due to fall just because he's not Tom Brady.  And he doesn't need to return to 5 years ago.  The last time we saw him he was still as good as ever.

PS While I think his football skills may have not diminished just yet, I have to believe that he's not raping as many people.  At least I hope so.  He's much bigger and not as quick so it's probably harder for him corner women in bathroom stalls and hotels.  

[Essex Johnson]

(05-06-2020, 12:06 PM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: AFCN you say? Really really good honestly.

Here is how I see it:

1) NFCW -- 49ers were in the SB last year, Rams in the SB 2 years ago, Seahawks still have RW and the Cardinals are up and coming with Hopkins and Murray. Tough division.
2) AFCN -- Ravens, Browns and Steelers all have playoff potential. Bengals have Burrow and will be looking better
3) NFCS -- Brees and Brady. This could end up having two 13 win teams... Will be interesting to see how good TB is this year
4) NFCE -- We used to talk about the Dalton line... this division is the Dalton line of divisions.. always has an 8-8 or 9-7 winner.
5) NFCN -- Disgruntled Rodgers Packers, declining Bears with a QB identity problem, Vikings got gutted on defense and lost Diggs. This division is on the decline after being a tough one a few years ago
6) AFCS -- Titans had a great year last year, but I feel they will perform worse in 2020. Texans lost Hopkins. Colts are okay and Jags have issues
7) AFCW -- Chiefs are the champs, but Broncos, Raiders and Chargers aren't much of a threat
8) AFCE -- No Brady. There are some up and coming teams in this division like the Bills, but I think last year was a good year for them. I expect a worse year this year

1st: NFCW: Ditto above
2rd:AFCS:  Titans tough last year, kept team together, Colts with Rivers will be tough, Houston still has a solid Def and QB... 
3th  NFCN-  3 teams solid shot at playoffs and Lions recover with Stafford healthy
4th: NFCS d Carolina in rebuild mode, Falcons continue to slide.. TB has to show me something.. NO is tough
5th: AFCN: Baltimore Top Dog.. Steelers weak Draft, Ben struggled before hurt last year, old, NO top WR, Def good, Browns who knows, Bengals improved
6th: AFCW: KC Super Bowl, Broncos improve, Raiders up and down
7th NFCE: Giants and Redskins not good.. Eagles up and down.. Dak and Cowboys have underachieved 
8th AFCE Ditto above

[*Nately120*]

(05-06-2020, 12:55 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I liked the comments of "oh, but they played a soft schedule last year"... yeah, you know in part why it was soft? Because they played the Bengals twice. The Bengals are 2-10 against the division the last two years yet there's people automatically assuming two wins against the Browns (the Bengals are 1-3 against them the last two years) and discounting the Steelers who are on a 9 game winning streak against the Bengals.

It's also interesting that Ben being "done" in 2020 is seen as auto victory over the Steelers after they swept us without him in 2019.

Our inability to beat the Steelers didn't leave with Marvin...maybe it left with Dalton?

[Hammerstripes]

(05-06-2020, 01:23 PM)Nately120 Wrote: It's also interesting that Ben being "done" in 2020 is seen as auto victory over the Steelers after they swept us without him in 2019.

Our inability to beat the Steelers didn't leave with Marvin...maybe it left with Dalton?

There's never an "auto" victory when 3/5 of your offensive line is gone before the season starts and your best WR is out for the season.

[GreenCornBengal]

(05-06-2020, 01:22 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: I have the NFCS down to 5th, Carolina in rebuild mode, Falcons continue to slide.. TB has to show me something.. I 
3rd:AFCS:  Titans tough last year, kept team together, Colts with Rivers will be tough, Houston still has a solid Def and QB... 
4th  NFCN-  3 teams solid shot at playoffs and Lions recover with Stafford healthy
6th NFCE:  Giants and Redskins not good.. Eagles up and down.. Dak and Cowboys have underachieved 

Forgot about Rivers @ the Colts. That certainly puts them up a few spots, agree with you there.

I don't believe as much in the NFCN. The vikings D is rebuilding, Stafford and the Lions always seem to underperform.

[*Nately120*]

(05-06-2020, 01:26 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: There's never an "auto" victory when 3/5 of your offensive line is gone before the season starts and your best WR is out for the season.

But Pig Jen is done!  And this time we mean it!  

But yeah AJ Green was out....cant beat Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges when you're all beat up.

[McC]

(05-06-2020, 12:15 PM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: It's wishful thinking, LJ hasn't shown any signs of slowing down. Russell Wilson runs around plenty and hasn't had any problems. Not every QB is going to end up like RG3.

Wilson is nothing like Jackson.  Wilson runs only when he needs to.  And he excels at not taking hits.

Jackson running is a key part of their offense.  If he's not running for seventy or more yards per game, their offense is severely handicapped.  They have to have him being a ball carrier.  Because of that, he is much more in harm's way.   What is implied but unsaid is yes, we know you can't last in this system but we don't give a shit if it gets us a SB.

There has been a whole off season to dissect the Ratbirds' offense by coordinators around the league.  That matters a lot.  The Wildcat offense gave defenses fits for about a year.  Defenses catch up to gimmicks.  They will not be 14-2 again.  They will still be good but not 14-2 good.  12-4 is their ceiling, imo.

[GreenCornBengal]

(05-06-2020, 01:48 PM)McC Wrote: Wilson is nothing like Jackson.  Wilson runs only when he needs to.  And he excels at not taking hits.

Jackson running is a key part of their offense.  If he's not running for seventy or more yards per game, their offense is severely handicapped.  They have to have him being a ball carrier.  Because of that, he is much more in harm's way.   What is implied but unsaid is yes, we know you can't last in this system but we don't give a shit if it gets us a SB.

There has been a whole off season to dissect the Ratbirds' offense by coordinators around the league.  That matters a lot.  The Wildcat offense gave defenses fits for about a year.  Defenses catch up to gimmicks.  They will not be 14-2 again.  They will still be good but not 14-2 good.  12-4 is their ceiling, imo.

I know LJ isn't exactly like RW, but many people said Russell would break after a few years because of how he plays.. Just saying, everyone always claims the latest mobile QB is 'going to break'... some do, some don't. RG3 was quick, Cam took ~8 years, Deshaun Watson seems to be doing ok...

I watched a decent amount of Raven games last year (6ish?) and Lamar does a pretty good job of defending himself. He runs out of bounds to avoid hits a lot more than you would think. He doesn't against our crummy D because there hasn't been anyone intimidating enough to avoid. He is a smart kid and is doing his best to avoid injury and personally I hope he stays healthy.

Their offense is far more advanced than the wildcat.. i wouldn't call it a gimmick. They can throw when they need to. Jackson put up 485 yards and 6TDs with a 67.7% completion percentage on 65 attempts against the Browns. I think we as Bengal fans are reluctant to recognize the talent the Ravens have over there. They are going to be good for a few more years sorry to say.

[ezekiel23]

The ravens have a very good team and will be back at it again this year. But I think the Steelers might win the division. They are a different team when Big Ben is in there.Steelers,Ravens,Bengals,Browns.Although I believe the Bengals will be more competitive than some people think,especially after the midway point of the season.2021 might be the year for the Bengals.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(05-06-2020, 09:30 AM)bengalfan74 Wrote: I've seen a lot of posters talking about how tough the AFC North is, best division in football and so on. But is it really ?

Let's start off at the top:

Ravens - 14-2 obviously they're at the top and one of the best teams in the NFL. There's probably a decent chance they'll sweep us ! However, a lot can happen between now and Nov. Dec. whenever the 2nd game is ? Still if they come back anything like last season a win against them is unlikely. But now there's the other two:

Steelers - 8-8 they were damn lucky to finish 8-8 last season with Big Jen out. He'll be closing in on 39 when the season starts and having missed basically a full season just how good will he be ? They didn't get much in the draft and Bell and Brown are gone, they don't scare me much. Their defense is good but just how good are they really ? They played a pretty soft schedule last season which probably padded their defensive stats a good bit.

5-11 Chargers, of course 2 games vs. us, got a win vs. a 6-10 Browns team that wasn't setting any records on O, played the LA Rams when they were struggling the Rams only scored 12 points, but they weren't scoring on anybody, they lost to the Jets ! I'm just not convinced their D is all world. I believe at a minimum we can split with them and a sweep isn't out of the question, hopefully Burrow isn't afraid of them.

Browns - 6-10 It seems some peeps believe Cleveland is on the brink of being good/great ? I'm not buying it. I strongly feel they still need a QB ! I'd be shocked if we don't at least split with them and in fact I wouldn't be at all surprised at us sweeping them. I just don't buy they're that close.

I think we will at least go 3-3, I really do. I believe many are way over rating the Division besides the Ravens.

With the Ravens it really only takes one hit to Lamar and things could sink fast for them. I know they still have a damn good 
Defense but RG3 sure doesn't scare me. I don't like that they picked up Dobbins and had a very good Draft but these guys are
not unbeatable. I think what the Stoolers did with all their injuries was pretty spectacular. Still think we should split with them 
at the very least with Burrow.

The Stains are the Stains until they prove otherwise, I could see us sweeping them. I agree, 3-3 sounds likely to me.

[motoarch]

(05-06-2020, 01:10 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: I'm not sure how Ben will look with a year of rust.  And he's definitely getting older.  That said...

1.) His last year played (2 years ago) he posted career highs in both yardage and TD's.  His completion % was his 2nd highest of his career, and his QBR ranked in the top 3.

So I'm not sure I understand the refernce point of a need to see him from 5 years ago.  To me this makes it sounds as if he's been on a steady decline over that span, that 5 years ago was the "real Ben" and that as of more recent he's not.

2018 was arguably his greatest season as a Pro.  So the question should be if he's close to 2 years ago, not 5.

2.)  Drew Brees has posted back to back to back 100+ QBR seasons since he was the age Ben is now.  At age 40, two years older than Ben his now, he posted a career high rating of 115.7, with 4000k+ yards and a 32 TD vs 5 INT split.

Peyton Manning, at the same age as Ben is now, posted 4,700 yards with 39 TD's and lead his team to 12-4 record, earning MVP votes and being ranked #5 in the Top 100 list.

Even the often forgotten Phillip Rivers, who has very recently finally "aged" out of being a great QB, was posting 4,300 yards, with 32 TD's and a 105 rating at the same age Ben is currently.

Tom Brady is not the only guy who can claim there's success past 35 for QB's.  The league has greatly changed due to the likes of not just Brady, but Brees, Manning, and yes, even Ben.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Like i said, maybe he falls off.  Maybe the injury is the nail in the coffin.  Maybe it's simply age, rust, or combination of every thing.  But I don't think it's fair to say he's due to fall just because he's not Tom Brady.  And he doesn't need to return to 5 years ago.  The last time we saw him he was still as good as ever.

PS While I think his football skills may have not diminished just yet, I have to believe that he's not raping as many people.  At least I hope so.  He's much bigger and not as quick so it's probably harder for him corner women in bathroom stalls and hotels.  

Dude you cant compare Ben to those guys.  They take/took care of themselves.  Ben is one beer and hotdog away from having a heart attack on the field.  Hes injured all the time it seems like and is reluctant to play it seems like a lot of the time when he is healthy.

He might put up some monster numbers but my guess is he wont.  He doesn't have the star power around him when Brown and Bell were on the team and Ju-Ju is over rated.  He was good when Brown and Bell were the focus of defenses; hes not going to carry the offence on his own.

Additionally he forced Haley out because he didn't like his style but he was putting up huge numbers with Haley so I don't know what his beef is but too much has changed since Ben looked good to make me believe hes still got it.

And the last time we saw him he wasn't as good as ever.  When he played last year he wasn't all that good at all.  He went 0-2 last year with no TDs and 1 interception and a 66 rating.   Granted that a very small sample size but you cant say he was good last time we saw him because he wasnt.

Maybe I'm wrong and you're right but I just don't see him having the the same end to his career as some of the guys you mentioned.  I see him falling off like Eli did.

[t3r3e3]

The Ravens arguably got better this offseason, and we’re damn good last year. Assuming nothing crazy happens, they should be somewhere between an 11-5 and 13-3 team.

The Steelers have an excellent defense and are getting Rapelisberger back, so probably somewhere between 8-8 and 10-6. Their o-line is good, but skill players are underwhelming. They did pick up Ebron, drafted Claypool, and also snagged a sleeper (albeit head case) in Anthony McFarland.

The Browns had a better offseason than the last one, likely fixed their o-line, and have a pretty solid, young roster. QB is the question mark. If Mayfield keeps it together and the tackles perform they’re probably a 9-7 or 10-6 team.

The Bengals improved a lot this offseason. However, the line is still a bottom tier league unit, and could arguably be upgraded at 2-3 spots next offseason. The defense, while improved, still has uncertainties at LB (rookies) and the secondary (new guys). Given the talent in the Division, I’d say a realistic projection for this season is somewhere between 6-10 and 9-7, depending on how things fall. Injuries to other teams, or to the Bengals will make all the difference. An RGIII led Ravens team is not as scary, nor is a Mason Rudolph/Devils Hodges led Steelers.

[Fan_in_Kettering]

The AFC North has two categories of teams:  (1) The Ravens and (2) everybody else.  Let's face it:  The entire division changed when Lamar Jackson learned how to pass.  They went 14-2 and the only reason they weren't in the Super Bowl was when Dean Pees, the Titans' defensive coordinator who had previously been the Ravens' defensive coordinator, found a two-wave defense which successfully stopped Lamar Jackson.  With all the upgrades Baltimore made over the offseason including drafting JK Dobbins and Malik Harrison from Ohio State they are stacked.  I can easily see them representing the AFC in the Super Bowl.

[McC]

(05-06-2020, 02:00 PM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: I know LJ isn't exactly like RW, but many people said Russell would break after a few years because of how he plays.. Just saying, everyone always claims the latest mobile QB is 'going to break'... some do, some don't. RG3 was quick, Cam took ~8 years, Deshaun Watson seems to be doing ok...

I watched a decent amount of Raven games last year (6ish?) and Lamar does a pretty good job of defending himself. He runs out of bounds to avoid hits a lot more than you would think. He doesn't against our crummy D because there hasn't been anyone intimidating enough to avoid. He is a smart kid and is doing his best to avoid injury and personally I hope he stays healthy.

Their offense is far more advanced than the wildcat.. i wouldn't call it a gimmick. They can throw when they need to. Jackson put up 485 yards and 6TDs with a 67.7% completion percentage on 65 attempts against the Browns. I think we as Bengal fans are reluctant to recognize the talent the Ravens have over there. They are going to be good for a few more years sorry to say.

I didn't say they wouldn't be good.  They will be good but they won't be taking the league by storm like last year.  As I said, 12-4 is their ceiling.

And yes, their offense is a gimmick.  If you take away their running game, they are screwed.  Lamar is not a pocket passer.  Think back to the playoff game.

Did Lamar ever slide all year?  Wilson does.  A lot.

Cam is 6'5" and 250.  Lamar is not.  He's way closer to RGIII in stature than Cam.   Sure, he's hard to catch but it only takes one.  He missed time his rookie year, in fact.

Watson runs when it's there.  But they don't go into the huddle and call running plays for him like the Rats do with Jackson.  That's also a different situation than Jackson.  And Watson has been hurt from time to time.

Watson, Wilson, even Cam are apples to oranges comparisons with Jackson.

[*bengalfan74*]

(05-06-2020, 03:37 PM)motoarch Wrote: Dude you cant compare Ben to those guys.  They take/took care of themselves.  Ben is one beer and hotdog away from having a heart attack on the field.  Hes injured all the time it seems like and is reluctant to play it seems like a lot of the time when he is healthy.

He might put up some monster numbers but my guess is he wont.  He doesn't have the star power around him when Brown and Bell were on the team and Ju-Ju is over rated.  He was good when Brown and Bell were the focus of defenses; hes not going to carry the offence on his own.

Additionally he forced Haley out because he didn't like his style but he was putting up huge numbers with Haley so I don't know what his beef is but too much has changed since Ben looked good to make me believe hes still got it.

And the last time we saw him he wasn't as good as ever.  When he played last year he wasn't all that good at all.  He went 0-2 last year with no TDs and 1 interception and a 66 rating.   Granted that a very small sample size but you cant say he was good last time we saw him because he wasnt.

Maybe I'm wrong and you're right but I just don't see him having the the same end to his career as some of the guys you mentioned.  I see him falling off like Eli did.

Yep,

I'm NOT saying Big Jen is gonna come out and suck bad. I'm just saying there's a good chance he's not gonna be among the best QB's next season. And I'll say it again - I don't believe the Steelers are gonna be that though, they're probably a 9-7 team.

[Sled21]

(05-06-2020, 12:48 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: It's really not.

If you take away every single one of Lamar's rushing yards, the 2019 Ravens STILL have the 7th running game in the league to go with their 4th overall/3rd scoring ranked defense. (And the best kicker in the league.)

That's only because opposing teams have to focus so much on Lamar's running ability. If they didn't have to focus on him running the ball so much, the other runners would not have so many opportunities....

[GreenCornBengal]

(05-06-2020, 04:39 PM)McC Wrote: I didn't say they wouldn't be good.  They will be good but they won't be taking the league by storm like last year.  As I said, 12-4 is their ceiling.

And yes, their offense is a gimmick.  If you take away their running game, they are screwed.  Lamar is not a pocket passer.  Think back to the playoff game.

Did Lamar ever slide all year?  Wilson does.  A lot.

Cam is 6'5" and 250.  Lamar is not.  He's way closer to RGIII in stature than Cam.   Sure, he's hard to catch but it only takes one.  He missed time his rookie year, in fact.

Watson runs when it's there.  But they don't go into the huddle and call running plays for him like the Rats do with Jackson.  That's also a different situation than Jackson.  And Watson has been hurt from time to time.

Watson, Wilson, even Cam are apples to oranges comparisons with Jackson.

Agree to disagree on their offense not being a gimmick. There is no way to convince you otherwise. *shrugs*

Give me some apples to apples comparisons then... the only player remotely close to this in the last 20 years is Mike Vick and believe it or not his injury history is pretty good. He actually got hurt more often after he came back into the league and wanted to be a pocket passer.

How about Kaepernick? He didn't suffer many injuries (if any, didn't look).

Who are all of these running QBs that are always getting hurt anyways?

I see more injuries from guys like David Carr, Andrew Luck and Sam Bradford. Seems to me it might be even more dangerous to be immobile in the pocket. As you said, it only takes one hit... why can't that hit happen inside the pocket??? Just because a guy is running up the field or laterally makes him more susceptible to injury? Carson Palmer was standing like a statue when he took a shot to his lower leg...

I don't buy this 'one hit away' for the mysterious running QB being more likely than for the pocket passer.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(05-06-2020, 04:59 PM)Sled21 Wrote: That's only because opposing teams have to focus so much on Lamar's running ability. If they didn't have to focus on him running the ball so much, the other runners would not have so many opportunities....

I disagree, and here's why...
- - - - - - - - - - -

OFFENSIVELY:
2019 was pretty much in line with Mark Ingram's previous few years. He's been a 1k yards at a 5ypc type of RB. Also the Ravens had an OL with 3 Pro Bowlers (1 of them an All-Pro) on it. 

In 2018 they were the 2nd ranked rushing offense in the league (still Top-10 even without Lamar's yards again).

Heck, in 2017 before Lamar was even in the league the Ravens were still the 11th ranked rushing offense (they have better RBs now than they did then).

- - - - - - - - -

DEFENSIVELY: 
In 2018 they were the 1st ranked overall defense and 2nd scoring defense.

In 2017 they were the 12th ranked overall defense and 6th ranked scoring defense.


- - - - - - - - - 

Lamar Jackson or no Lamar Jackson, the Ravens are a team that can run the ball and play defense. (And they've continued to have the best kicker in the NFL.)

They are a complete team, man. Joe Flacco was just a turd.

[McC]

(05-06-2020, 04:35 PM)Fan_in_Kettering Wrote: The AFC North has two categories of teams:  (1) The Ravens and (2) everybody else.  Let's face it:  The entire division changed when Lamar Jackson learned how to pass.  They went 14-2 and the only reason they weren't in the Super Bowl was when Dean Pees, the Titans' defensive coordinator who had previously been the Ravens' defensive coordinator, found a two-wave defense which successfully stopped Lamar Jackson.  With all the upgrades Baltimore made over the offseason including drafting JK Dobbins and Malik Harrison from Ohio State they are stacked.  I can easily see them representing the AFC in the Super Bowl.

Nope.  They still can't beat the Chefs.

They'll be good--11-5, 12-4 good, but they aren't running wild through everybody again this year.  Yanda retiring is a BIG deal. 

Greg Roman's offenses seem to have about a two to three year shelf life. The Titans put the blueprint out there.