Mixon- Bengals had productive talks

[McC]

(05-19-2020, 11:57 AM)SunsetBengal Wrote: They mention McCaffery at $15M and Gordon at $8M, then suggest that the Bengals and Mixon find a "happy medium" between the two?  Between the two would be around $12M/per avg.

As much as I like Mixon's play on the field, it's tough to imagine the Bengals paying North of $10M per on a RB.  

It is some guy from MSN probably guessing.  I can't see him getting more that 10 mil either.

[Wes Mantooth]

Fwiw, here's Mixon's position ranks by year, along with his YPC (Yards Per Carry):

2017

Rushing Yards - 30th
Rushing TD's - 27th
Receptions - 33rd
Receiving Yards -24th
Reciving TD's - 60th (Tied w/ 0)
YPC - 3.5

2018

Rushing Yards - 4th
Rushing TD's - 11th
Receptions - 18th
Receiving Yards -22nd
Reciving TD's - 28th
YPC - 4.9

2019

Rushing Yards - 8th
Rushing TD's - 24th
Receptions - 28th
Receiving Yards -24th
Reciving TD's - 8th
YPC - 4.1

Fwiw, I'm not really posting these to be an analysis of his skill, or to accrurately gauge his worth. But I do think you can use some of this to explain why or why not he would deserving "elite" money.

A few things to consider,

1.) His rookie year he shared duties, and only played in 14 games, with only 7 starts. And yeah, he was a rookie.
2.) He's played with God awful lines in each of his 3 seasons.
3.) He played on a horrible team in 2019, with another awful line.

So I'm not trying to say these numbers are bad or can't be further delved into. NOT the point of this.

I think what you really need to consider that he has yet demonstrate that he can be an elite level back in the receiving game, which is what drives many of these huge contracts. Most Backs in that 12+ mil range are all guys who put up huge numbers in the pass game, with the exception of Elliot who posts top 3 yardage and TD's seasons, with a well above average YPC.

So I really do think if the Bengals offer a deal that gets anywhere close to 10 mil they really are doing absolutely everything can to keep this guy, and for that I really think he should be elated. They're showing a lot of faith in his abilities.

Fwiw, I truly believe that if you put Mixon on the Cowboys for that span, and Elliot on the Bengals, that the numbers would pretty much reverse. One is a product a great OL, while the other is the product of a terrible OL. So I'm not so sure the skill level is really that different.

But if I'm Joe Mixon, or his agent, I'm not sure how you can expect to get paid EARLY, and to be paid anywhere near the very, very top.

If the Bengals float him Top 8 Money then they should be applauded for not penny pinching. And he really should be thankful. Because when you couple these numbers with the current market, they're doing everything they can to tell you they want you around. And if you're asking beyong that then you're being both selfish and naive.

[*bengalfan74*]

(05-19-2020, 01:51 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Fwiw, here's Mixon's position ranks by year, along with his YPC (Yards Per Carry):

2017

Rushing Yards - 30th
Rushing TD's - 27th
Receptions - 33rd
Receiving Yards -24th
Reciving TD's - 60th (Tied w/ 0)
YPC - 3.5

2018

Rushing Yards - 4th
Rushing TD's - 11th
Receptions - 18th
Receiving Yards -22nd
Reciving TD's - 28th
YPC - 4.9

2019

Rushing Yards - 8th
Rushing TD's - 24th
Receptions - 28th
Receiving Yards -24th
Reciving TD's - 8th
YPC - 4.1

Fwiw, I'm not really posting these to be an analysis of his skill, or to accrurately gauge his worth.  But I do think you can use some of this to explain why or why not he would deserving "elite" money.

A few things to consider,

1.) His rookie year he shared duties, and only played in 14 games, with only 7 starts.  And yeah, he was a rookie.
2.) He's played with God awful lines in each of his 3 seasons.
3.) He played on a horrible team in 2019, with another awful line.

So I'm not trying to say these numbers are bad or can't be further delved into.  NOT the point of this.

I think what you really need to consider that he has yet demonstrate that he can be an elite level back in the receiving game, which is what drives many of these huge contracts.  Most Backs in that 12+ mil range are all guys who put up huge numbers in the pass game, with the exception of Elliot who posts top 3 yardage and TD's seasons, with a well above average YPC.

So I really do think if the Bengals offer a deal that gets anywhere close to 10 mil they really are doing absolutely everything can to keep this guy, and for that I really think he should be elated.  They're showing a lot of faith in his abilities.

Fwiw, I truly believe that if you put Mixon on the Cowboys for that span, and Elliot on the Bengals, that the numbers would pretty much reverse.  One is a product a great OL, while the other is the product of a terrible OL.  So I'm not so sure the skill level is really that different.

But if I'm Joe Mixon, or his agent, I'm not sure how you can expect to get paid EARLY, and to be paid anywhere near the very, very top.

If the Bengals float him Top 8 Money then they should be applauded for not penny pinching.  And he really should be thankful.  Because when you couple these numbers with the current market, they're doing everything they can to tell you they want you around.  And if you're asking beyong that then you're being both selfish and naive.

Mostly agree

He's been on some bad teams and that factors in no matter how you spin it. But, as you point out his passing game production hasn't been great and to again be fair there's a lot of factors there.

All things considered I'm with you. If they offer him top 8 money he should be happy. 

[Goalpost]

I think at times Mixon is under used. I mean at times he had some terrific series and would find himself on the bench for the next one. I don't know if they are concerned with his conditioning or durability or if that is the way they just plan to do it. He sure doesn't seem like the type of player asking to come out of games. It doesn't happen a lot but enough to mention I guess.

[SunsetBengal]

(05-19-2020, 02:16 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Mostly agree

He's been on some bad teams and that factors in no matter how you spin it. But, as you point out his passing game production hasn't been great and to again be fair there's a lot of factors there.

All things considered I'm with you. If they offer him top 8 money he should be happy. 

Another pretty good RB for the Bengals also played on some crappy teams.  Corey Dillon for quite some time, WAS the only reason to watch the Bengals.

'97   7-9    1129 yds  10 TD  4.8 avg    Rec.  259 yds
'98   3-13   1130        4        4.3                  178       1 TD
'99   4-12   1200        5        4.6                  290       1

Just for comparison, Dillon also played on the only other Bengals team to go 2-14

'02   2-14   1311       7         4.2                  298


At this point in his career, Joe is on par with Corey for overall productivity.  The only decided edge to Dillon was the ability to take it to the house, with the home run ball.  So far, Mixon's best run was for 51 yds, and by this time in Dillon's career, he already had runs of 75 and 66 yards to his credit.  (career long of 96)

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

(05-19-2020, 12:49 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: It's my understanding that the new fines levied against holdouts only apply to those who are on the 2nd contract or greater.  I'm pretty sure if you read it closely it will say "verteran players" which is specified as the above.

I could be wrong, but I think players on a rookie deal can holdout just as before, with no additional fines.

Really doesn't matter though in this case.  Melvin Gordon really killed the chances of Mixon actually holding out into the season.

It is not the fines that destroy Mixon's leverage. It is the fact that if he misses ONE DAY, he loses a whole year. He would not be able to be a FA in 2021. No way he wants to make $1.9 mil for two more years. The holdout stuff is total nonsense.

Having said that, Mixon has put up HUGE rushing numbers (like Henry, Elliot,  or Gurley), nor is he a dual threat guy like McCafferey, Barkley, or Bell. He's a two-down back. Anything north of $10 mil is too much in my book. 

If it is north of that, we'd be better off paying him $1.9 this year and tagging him. Right? Use the savings for O-line/TE/DE help.

I also read where the deal needed to be done AFTER July 15, for contract purposes of some kind. So 2 months before it is likely official.

[Bengalitis]

Pay Nixon, heck he’s even a better receiver than Ross.

[Nebuchadnezzar]

(05-19-2020, 03:30 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Another pretty good RB for the Bengals also played on some crappy teams.  Corey Dillon for quite some time, WAS the only reason to watch the Bengals.

'97   7-9    1129 yds  10 TD  4.8 avg    Rec.  259 yds
'98   3-13   1130        4        4.3                  178       1 TD
'99   4-12   1200        5        4.6                  290       1

Just for comparison, Dillon also played on the only other Bengals team to go 2-14

'02   2-14   1311       7         4.2                  298


At this point in his career, Joe is on par with Corey for overall productivity.  The only decided edge to Dillon was the ability to take it to the house, with the home run ball.  So far, Mixon's best run was for 51 yds, and by this time in Dillon's career, he already had runs of 75 and 66 yards to his credit.  (career long of 96)

But, that game against Denver in 2000 or 2001 where he broke the single game rushing record with 260 or 270 yards gives Dillon more leverage now if he was on this team than Mixon does.

I want Mixon signed but only up to $10 million. I think that's what Mixon and his agent want, that 8 digit number. Go up to $9.99 million, say you got 8 digits and make the Bengals feel as if they got a deal too.

[Truck_1_0_1_]

(05-19-2020, 04:24 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: It is not the fines that destroy Mixon's leverage. It is the fact that if he misses ONE DAY, he loses a whole year. He would not be able to be a FA in 2021. No way he wants to make $1.9 mil for two more years. The holdout stuff is total nonsense.

Having said that, Mixon has put up HUGE rushing numbers (like Henry, Elliot,  or Gurley), nor is he a dual threat guy like McCafferey, Barkley, or Bell. He's a two-down back. Anything north of $10 mil is too much in my book. 

If it is north of that, we'd be better off paying him $1.9 this year and tagging him. Right? Use the savings for O-line/TE/DE help.

I also read where the deal needed to be done AFTER July 15, for contract purposes of some kind. So 2 months before it is likely official.

You're joking, right?

He's not McCaffrey (nobody is), but really?

[Nicomo Cosca]

(05-20-2020, 12:31 AM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: You're joking, right?

He's not McCaffrey (nobody is), but really?

Yeah, saying Mixon isn’t a duel threat is crazy talk. He certainly was in college. Almost 900 Yds and 9 TD’s receiving in 2 seasons.

It’s up to ZT to utilize that part of Joe’s game more.

[TSwigZ]

If they pay him 10 mil or more they better start using him more in the passing game bc I love Joe but untill he plays great for an entire season instead of just half seasons he’s not worth a big contract especially at a position that is almost worthless to invest cash in. They messed up on Gio’s contract and barely use him. I understand there are other variables in play such as running behind a inferior OLine but it’s hard grasp what he’s worth based on production. I know he’s had a couple thousand yard seasons but he has so much more potential then running for 1000 yards and he needs to breakout this year

[fredtoast]

(05-20-2020, 06:44 AM)TSwigZ Wrote:  but untill he plays great for an entire season instead of just half seasons he’s not worth a big contract 

Mixon played the whole season last year.  It was the o-line that could only block the second half.  The coaches admitted they changed the blocking scheme in the run game during the bye week.  The change was incredible.

Bengals run game

1st 8 games

59.5 yards per game....32nd (on pace for lowest NFL team rushing total in 37 years)
3.17 per carry...………..31st
0 RB rush tds


Last 8 games

130.1 yards per game..6th
4.43 yards per carry....14th (would have been 2nd highest average per carry for a full Bengals season in last 20 years)



Over his final 8 games Mixon averaged 102.1.  If Mixon had averaged 102.1 over all 16 games his 1634 yards would have been the highest total in the league in 6 years.

[*bengalfan74*]

(05-20-2020, 12:31 AM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: You're joking, right?

He's not McCaffrey (nobody is), but really?

(05-20-2020, 12:53 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Yeah, saying Mixon isn’t a duel threat is crazy talk. He certainly was in college. Almost 900 Yds and 9 TD’s receiving in 2 seasons.

It’s up to ZT to utilize that part of Joe’s game more.

Yup

Joe has 134 targets and 108 receptions that's a success rate of over 80%. One of my big complaints about Mixon with both the past and current staff is the under utilization/misuse of him in the passing game.

Joe is a real threat in the passing game, they just gotta get him the ball.

[fredtoast]

Footballoutsiders did a great study about how anything over 350 carries is likely to effect the RBs production the next year. But the study also showed that carries are different from receptions when it came to wearing a RB out. S0 300 carries plus 50 receptions is easier on a RB than 350 carries.

Mixon can be a bigger weapon in the passing game. He may not be Marshall Faulk or McCaffrey, but he doesn't have to be to still be a lot more productive as a receiver.

[Murdock2420]

The good news it the Bengals are looking at this as an important move to get Joe signed. If they can work out a deal with A.J. to get him off the tag number and then sign Joe around 8 to 10 per year, should keep the team in a comfortable cap situation.

[fredtoast]

(05-20-2020, 02:53 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: The good news it the Bengals are looking at this as an important move to get Joe signed. If they can work out a deal with A.J. to get him off the tag number and then sign Joe around 8 to 10 per year, should keep the team in a comfortable cap situation.

As much as Green wants a long term deal he is not going to take one with less guaranteed money than the $18.5 million he gets under the tag.  And it would be crazy to give him more than $18.5 million guaranteed before we know if he can still play and stay healthy.


I am as big of a fan of AJ as anyone.  I am a SEC fan so I have been watching him light it up since college.  But you can't give a guy that much GUARANTEED money just because you like him. 

[*SHRacerX*]

(05-19-2020, 11:57 AM)SunsetBengal Wrote: They mention McCaffery at $15M and Gordon at $8M, then suggest that the Bengals and Mixon find a "happy medium" between the two?  Between the two would be around $12M/per avg.

As much as I like Mixon's play on the field, it's tough to imagine the Bengals paying North of $10M per on a RB.  

Yeah, I caught that too.  But between the two could mean $1 inside of either number, and I would bet it is around $8.5 million per with a good signing bonus.  Joe deserves that, and I think this is why the Bengals don't sign Warford.  Between the two, I would rather have Joe locked up and rearing to go from day 1.

[Wes Mantooth]

(05-20-2020, 03:51 PM)fredtoast Wrote: As much as Green wants a long term deal he is not going to take one with less guaranteed money than the $18.5 million he gets under the tag.  And it would be crazy to give him more than $18.5 million guaranteed before we know if he can still play and stay healthy.

THIS!!!!

I keep trying to remind people of this when they float numbers out there, and it never seems to stick.  And I've seen you do it as well.

Not only does it obviously need to be at least that amount in guarantees, the reality is that it most likely needs to be a decent amount more in a multi-year contract.

As it stands he's got 18.5 fully guaranteed, and he's free to secure additional guarantees, and a brand new signing bonus, in a brand new contract, after this season.  So I really can't see him letting the team control his rights for additional 3 or 4 years without at least a decent amount above that. I mean, why would he?

That's why these posts of "I'd like to see him sign an incentive laden deal" make no sense.  How do you work out an incentive laden contract with 25+ mil in guaranteed money???

Cuz that's the minimum I think it would truly take if you really want AJ Green on an extension. And honestly, that number is probably closer to 30 than 25. You're talking at least 25 mil guaranteed to pull that off.  So people can estimate that and go from there. 

3 years, 4 years, 12-16 mil per, take your pick. But the years and the total dollars are secondary to the guaranteed amount.  You're talking about a pretty HUGE investment to lock him.

Like a few of us have said, you have to work off the guarantees. I'm sure we'd all love to sign him for 3 years with less guaranteed and put a ton of incentives in the contract.  The problem is there is no incentive for him to do that right now.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(05-19-2020, 11:39 AM)bengalfan74 Wrote: https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/report-joe-mixon-bengals-had-productive-talks-about-new-deal/ar-BB14iUE7?ocid=spartandhp

Seems the Bengals are making resigning Mixon a priority.

Good news, want to keep Mixon here. He just stayed healthy last season and hasn't been properly utilized yet and still has
played very well considering all this. About 8-10 million a year sounds about right with him still being in his prime. Need to
use Mixon in the passing game more, don't know how many times I have to say this.

[Geno_Can_Dunk]

(05-20-2020, 07:44 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: THIS!!!!

I keep trying to remind people of this when they float numbers out there, and it never seems to stick.  And I've seen you do it as well.

Not only does it obviously need to be at least that amount in guarantees, the reality is that it most likely needs to be a decent amount more in a multi-year contract.

As it stands he's got 18.5 fully guaranteed, and he's free to secure additional guarantees, and a brand new signing bonus, in a brand new contract, after this season.  So I really can't see him letting the team control his rights for additional 3 or 4 years without at least a decent amount above that. I mean, why would he?

That's why these posts of "I'd like to see him sign an incentive laden deal" make no sense.  How do you work out an incentive laden contract with 25+ mil in guaranteed money???

Cuz that's the minimum I think it would truly take if you really want AJ Green on an extension. And honestly, that number is probably closer to 30 than 25.   You're talking at least 25 mil guaranteed to pull that off.  So people can estimate that and go from there. 

3 years, 4 years, 12-16 mil per, take your pick. But the years and the total dollars are secondary to the guaranteed amount.  You're talking about a pretty HUGE investment to lock him.

Like a few of us have said, you have to work off the guarantees. I'm sure we'd all love to sign him for 3 years with less guaranteed and put a ton of incentives in the contract.  The problem is there is no incentive for him to do that right now.

I think you're right in principle, but this will not be as hard to do as you make it out to be. The franchise tag 18.5 is guaranteed for one year. It's basically a guaranteed base salary with no signing bonus. You might as well guaranteed his base salary in 2020 because it's not like we're cutting him no matter what he does this year. 

Figure it like this: 

3 year deal, $12 million signing bonus, 10 million base salary per year (forget workout bonuses and such for the sake of simplicity). 

If you then guarantee his base salary in year 1 (but not thereafter), he's getting 22 million his first year, way above what he's getting now. 

In years 2-3 he'd get a non-guaranteed 10 million base, but you can add to that those incentives other folks are talking about to kick it up to the mid teens. Or he might be interested in roster bonuses to disincentivize the team from releasing him a week after the draft like they did Andy (cut him early or not at all). The question is what's he willing to do in years 2-3 in exchange for giving him more guaranteed money now, fully knowing he's had trouble staying healthy as of late. 

Those are just rough numbers, not meant to be predictions, but note that in that scenario his 2020 cap hit would drop to 14 million, and I bet we could even get it lower.