How much did our defense really improve in second half of last season

[fredtoast]

What I have done is not a complicated formula.  All I have done is measure our defense's performance based on the offense they were facing.  You will understand what I am saying as I analyze the season.  When I list an opponent's ranking it is final season.

The first game of the season was amazing.  Our defense held the #8 offense in the league (Seattle) to only 232 yards.  That was an incredible 142 yards below the Seahawks' season average.  I still can't explain how well we played, but I remember being shocked at the improvement of our defense from 2018.

Unfortunately over the next 7 weeks we got consistently curb stomped.  We allowed an average of 465 yards per game which was almost 100 yards (99.1) higher than those teams averaged for the season.  And while 3 of those seven teams had top ten offenses (#2 Bal, #4 SF, #7 Rams) none of the other 4 ranked higher than 20 (#30 Pit, #24 Buf, #21 Ari, #20 Jax).

At the half way point of the season we were historically bad.  We were on pace to be the 2nd worst defense since the 1970 merger.  And we really did not face that high of a level of offense.  If you average the rankins of the offenses it is 14.5.  if you look at the average of how much yardage they gained (353.6) it would have ranled 15th in the league.

At this point I will post just the raw numbers and league rankings for each half

1-8.....435.8 ypg....32nd
9-16...351.6 ypg....18th

This is the point were some people say we just looked better because we played weaker offenses while others say we really improved.

First of all, it is true that the teams we faced in the second half had weaker offenses, but not by that much.  The league average for yards gained was 347.9.  Our first eight opponents averaged 353.6 which was 5.7 yards above average and would have ranked 15th.  The eight opponents in the second half averaged 333.4 for the season.  That was almost 15 yards below the league average and would have ranked 24th.  Worse than the first half but not by a lot compared to how much our defense improved.

When you look at the two different halfs and measure them based on opponents offense it is clear that the Defense improved significantly over the second half.  Over the first 8 games the defense was allowing opponents to gain 82 yards above their per game average.  Over the second half the defense allowed opponenets only 18 yards more than they usually gained. Still below average, but a great improvement over the first half trainwreck.

The Seattle game was the only one in the first half where the Bengals held their opponent below their season average.  In the second half the Bengals held 5 of 8 opponents below their season average (Bal, Jets, Pats, Cle X2).  The meltdown against the Dolphins were they gave up over 500 yards to the #27 offense ruined their second half stats.  Other than that game they held their opponents below their season average.

So although I am not ready to give Anarumo a gold star I am certainly starting to feel a little better about him than I did before.  Our defense last year was really, really bad.  But at least they showed signs of getting better.

[BengalChris]

You still cannot escape the fact that the Bengals played only 2 teams with a winning record in the second half of the season. And those two winning teams just pummeled the Bengals defense for 49 and 34 points. Now if they had played better against those two teams that would be another thing. Instead they had their asses handed to them.

The defense did improve some. But it sure wasn't enough for the team, witness the substantial free agent moves the team made at every level of the defense in the off-season.

[Nicomo Cosca]

The defense has been almost entirely revamped (at all 3 levels), so I’m not sure how much we should really focus on what they did last season.

[Mike M (the other one)]

(06-05-2020, 01:31 AM)BengalChris Wrote: You still cannot escape the fact that the Bengals played only 2 teams with a winning record in the second half of the season. And those two winning teams just pummeled the Bengals defense for 49 and 34 points. Now if they had played better against those two teams that would be another thing. Instead they had their asses handed to them.

The defense did improve some. But it sure wasn't enough for the team, witness the substantial free agent moves the team made at every level of the defense in the off-season.

The half season comparison vs another teams full seasons stats isn't quite fair.

All teams played in the 2nd half except for 2 had winning seasons in the 2nd half and all but 1 in the first half had winning records.

Also, this ignores the fact that other slow starting teams improved as well.

Ie what was Miami's avg score/yards etc in the first 8 vs second 8. Same with other teams as well.

[Essex Johnson]

It is pretty simple if you watched the play from 1st half and 2nd half the defense lead by the def. line played better. Pratt started to contribute. So with that to go on and the needed changes in areas especially LB with FA and draft heavy signs are pointing up.

[*SHRacerX*]

(06-05-2020, 01:52 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: The defense has been almost entirely revamped (at all 3 levels), so I’m not sure how much we should really focus on what they did last season.

While I agree with this statement, I think what Fred posted shows a little faith in the coaching staff.  What they did with not much talent and how they made adjustments.  

[*SHRacerX*]

(06-05-2020, 12:42 AM)fredtoast Wrote: What I have done is not a complicated formula.  All I have done is measure our defense's performance based on the offense they were facing.  You will understand what I am saying as I analyze the season.  When I list an opponent's ranking it is final season.

The first game of the season was amazing.  Our defense held the #8 offense in the league (Seattle) to only 232 yards.  That was an incredible 142 yards below the Seahawks' season average.  I still can't explain how well we played, but I remember being shocked at the improvement of our defense from 2018.

Unfortunately over the next 7 weeks we got consistently curb stomped.  We allowed an average of 465 yards per game which was almost 100 yards (99.1) higher than those teams averaged for the season.  And while 3 of those seven teams had top ten offenses (#2 Bal, #4 SF, #7 Rams) none of the other 4 ranked higher than 20 (#30 Pit, #24 Buf, #21 Ari, #20 Jax).

I think about that first week a lot...probably because there isn't much else to over-analyze right now with respect to the Bengals.
I remember how ZT said he wanted his team to be the freshest and the fastest team on Sundays.  When I look back, I can't help but think ZT took it too easy on the players in camp leading up to the season.  They may have been fresh and fast that first Sunday, but they were dead as a door nail the following week.  I am sure the travel didn't help...nor did the brilliant decision to wear the black uniforms against the 49ers on one of the hottest days of the year.  
As a stupid analogy, in swimming, some teams would have very light work loads.  They recruited "wimps" that would never be able to put up with ridiculous 9000 yard practices (they were stupid anyways, but stick with me) and they touted to their athletes how they wouldn't beat them down all season.  Well, you hated competing against them early in the season.  They were all fast and fresh.  However, when it came time to taper (when yardage is greatly reduced and the body is allowed to heal) for the big end of season conference meet, they were nowhere to be found.  They hadn't put in the work and didn't get nearly as much out of taper as the other teams.  
I look at last year's week 1 Bengals and how they played only to see them struggle as though they could barely move the following weeks.  
I remember the soreness you felt after the first game of the season couldn't be duplicated in practice or the gym, but the better conditioned you were heading in to it, the faster you recovered.  If that was the case with the Bengals, I hope ZT turns up the intensity in camp this year.  

[Truck_1_0_1_]

(06-05-2020, 01:31 AM)BengalChris Wrote: You still cannot escape the fact that the Bengals played only 2 teams with a winning record in the second half of the season. And those two winning teams just pummeled the Bengals defense for 49 and 34 points. Now if they had played better against those two teams that would be another thing. Instead they had their asses handed to them.

The defense did improve some. But it sure wasn't enough for the team, witness the substantial free agent moves the team made at every level of the defense in the off-season.

Andy was the cause for around 21 of those 34 Patriot points...

[SladeX]

I never pay attention to the first game of the season as a bellwether for the rest of a season. A poster on another board pointed out how random the first week was in terms of predicting a team's ultimate success, I started to pay attention and found he was correct.
Probably down to team's not fully rounded into form week 1.

[fredtoast]

(06-05-2020, 01:52 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: The defense has been almost entirely revamped (at all 3 levels), so I’m not sure how much we should really focus on what they did last season.

You don't think coaching makes any difference?

[fredtoast]

(06-05-2020, 07:14 AM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: The half season comparison vs another teams full seasons stats isn't quite fair.

All teams played in the 2nd half except for 2 had winning seasons in the 2nd half and all but 1 in the first half had winning records.

Also, this ignores the fact that other slow starting teams improved as well.

Ie what was Miami's avg score/yards etc in the first 8 vs second 8. Same with other teams as well.

Actually it makes no difference at all.

If it does then show me.

This is not about "winning records" this is about how our defense performed against opposing offenses based on how good the opposing offense was.  So if you have stats that show mistakes in my analysis please show me the numbers.

[Essex Johnson]

(06-05-2020, 09:08 AM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: Andy was the cause for around 21 of those 34 Patriot points...

Well have to correct you on that game.. Dalton had a pick 6 that contributed to 7 points.. he also had a pick at around our 40, Patriots went right through the defense (i would not put all points on Dalton )... the rest of their points were not off turnovers  So to me Dalton contributed 10 to 14 points since the second turnover gave them a short field, that game what hurt the defense what hurt use alot over last year.. stopping the run... Patriot rans for around 175 with a 5.8 ypc... Brady was only 15 out of 29 four 128

[SladeX]

Hopefully this indicates the defensive coaches can adapt and adjust.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(06-05-2020, 10:18 AM)fredtoast Wrote: You don't think coaching makes any difference?

Ofc it does.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(06-05-2020, 10:25 AM)Essex Johnson Wrote: Well have to correct you on that game.. Dalton had a pick 6 that contributed to 7 points.. he also had a pick at around our 40, Patriots went right through the defense (i would not put all points on Dalton )... the rest of their points were not off turnovers  So to me Dalton contributed 10 to 14 points since the second turnover gave them a short field, that game what hurt the defense what hurt use alot over last year.. stopping the run... Patriot rans for around 175 with a 5.8 ypc... Brady was only 15 out of 29 four 128

Dalton turns the ball over 4x and it’s still not his fault...LOL

[Essex Johnson]

(06-05-2020, 10:34 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Dalton turns the ball over 4x and it’s still not his fault...LOL

Man you must be having hard time lately reading correctly so guess i will point out again your lack of substance in your response.. notice i responded directly to Andy lead to around 21 of those points.. which I pointed out factually he contributed to 10 to 14 depending on how you see it.....  and pointed where our Defense did well (pass) and did not do well (run) Since you seem a bit weak in actually reading a post.. i attached a video for you for highlights .. hopefully that helps you  :andy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0OuMXtTalCw&feature=onebox

[*ochocincos*]

(06-05-2020, 12:42 AM)fredtoast Wrote: What I have done is not a complicated formula.  All I have done is measure our defense's performance based on the offense they were facing.  You will understand what I am saying as I analyze the season.  When I list an opponent's ranking it is final season.

The first game of the season was amazing.  Our defense held the #8 offense in the league (Seattle) to only 232 yards.  That was an incredible 142 yards below the Seahawks' season average.  I still can't explain how well we played, but I remember being shocked at the improvement of our defense from 2018.

Unfortunately over the next 7 weeks we got consistently curb stomped.  We allowed an average of 465 yards per game which was almost 100 yards (99.1) higher than those teams averaged for the season.  And while 3 of those seven teams had top ten offenses (#2 Bal, #4 SF, #7 Rams) none of the other 4 ranked higher than 20 (#30 Pit, #24 Buf, #21 Ari, #20 Jax).

At the half way point of the season we were historically bad.  We were on pace to be the 2nd worst defense since the 1970 merger.  And we really did not face that high of a level of offense.  If you average the rankins of the offenses it is 14.5.  if you look at the average of how much yardage they gained (353.6) it would have ranled 15th in the league.

At this point I will post just the raw numbers and league rankings for each half

1-8.....435.8 ypg....32nd
9-16...351.6 ypg....18th

This is the point were some people say we just looked better because we played weaker offenses while others say we really improved.

First of all, it is true that the teams we faced in the second half had weaker offenses, but not by that much.  The league average for yards gained was 347.9.  Our first eight opponents averaged 353.6 which was 5.7 yards above average and would have ranked 15th.  The eight opponents in the second half averaged 333.4 for the season.  That was almost 15 yards below the league average and would have ranked 24th.  Worse than the first half but not by a lot compared to how much our defense improved.

When you look at the two different halfs and measure them based on opponents offense it is clear that the Defense improved significantly over the second half.  Over the first 8 games the defense was allowing opponents to gain 82 yards above their per game average.  Over the second half the defense allowed opponenets only 18 yards more than they usually gained. Still below average, but a great improvement over the first half trainwreck.

The Seattle game was the only one in the first half where the Bengals held their opponent below their season average.  In the second half the Bengals held 5 of 8 opponents below their season average (Bal, Jets, Pats, Cle X2).  The meltdown against the Dolphins were they gave up over 500 yards to the #27 offense ruined their second half stats.  Other than that game they held their opponents below their season average.

So although I am not ready to give Anarumo a gold star I am certainly starting to feel a little better about him than I did before.  Our defense last year was really, really bad.  But at least they showed signs of getting better.

I definitely understand where you are coming from.

While I wasn't pleased with Anarumo's defense last year at all, they were mostly using players who were part of Paul Guenther's system which they had been used to for years, so there definitely could have been some needed amount of games to adjust properly. We saw a similar issue with the defense trying to adjust to Austin's scheme just a year prior.

If there's any optimism from last year, it's that there was some improvement from 1st half to 2nd half of the season (offensively and defensively) and it still resulted in the Bengals getting to pick 1st overall (not in the "wasteland" area of 6-10 wins) to hopefully get elite players. And now the schemes will be in their second season, so hopefully the learning curve will be easier and quicker.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(06-05-2020, 10:51 AM)Essex Johnson Wrote: Man you must be having hard time lately reading correctly so guess i will point out again your lack of substance in your response.. notice i responded directly to Andy lead to around 21 of those points.. which I pointed out factually he contributed to 10 to 14 depending on how you see it.....  and pointed where our Defense did well (pass) and did not do well (run) Since you seem a bit weak in actually reading a post.. i attached a video for you for highlights .. hopefully that helps you  :andy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0OuMXtTalCw&feature=onebox

Nah, just a hard time with tired excuse making, and shifting of blame away from where it belongs.

And no thanks on the “highlights.” Watching your boy and his 39.2 rating once was more than enough.

[Geno_Can_Dunk]

(06-05-2020, 12:42 AM)fredtoast Wrote: First of all, it is true that the teams we faced in the second half had weaker offenses, but not by that much.  The league average for yards gained was 347.9.  Our first eight opponents averaged 353.6 which was 5.7 yards above average and would have ranked 15th.  The eight opponents in the second half averaged 333.4 for the season.  That was almost 15 yards below the league average and would have ranked 24th.  Worse than the first half but not by a lot compared to how much our defense improved.

When you look at the two different halfs and measure them based on opponents offense it is clear that the Defense improved significantly over the second half.  Over the first 8 games the defense was allowing opponents to gain 82 yards above their per game average.  Over the second half the defense allowed opponenets only 18 yards more than they usually gained. Still below average, but a great improvement over the first half trainwreck.

This is where standard deviation needs to be brought into the analysis. I'm not saying your analysis is wrong - I actually have no opinion on that. But what I do know is that you can't calculate a bunch of averages and then just try to eyeball what is significant and what is not. I bolded the points where you did that. 
Again, to be clear, you did solid work here and you may well be right. I'm just trying to point out why I would take this with a grain of salt. 

[fredtoast]

(06-05-2020, 12:11 PM)Geno_Can_Dunk Wrote:  But what I do know is that you can't calculate a bunch of averages and then just try to eyeball what is significant and what is not. I bolded the points where you did that. 

Yes I can do that, and it is significant.  First half of the season we allowed teams to gain over 80 yards more than what they usually do and we only held one opponent below their season average.  Second half of the season we hold 5 of 8 opponents below their season average and only allowed teams on average to gain only 18 yards more than their season average.


To me holding a team whose offense averages over 400 yards a game to 360 yards is a better defensive performance than letting a team whose offense only averages 330 yards a game to gain 350.  The raw total of yards allowed can be deceptive based on how good the opposing offense is.