Hypothetical 2021 #1 pick

[mikey6866]

Easiest decision ever. Take Lawrence trade burrow for a bunch of picks.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(08-04-2020, 08:33 AM)mikey6866 Wrote: Easiest decision ever. Take Lawrence trade burrow for a bunch of picks.

I get maybe preferring Lawrence a little more, but there would be nothing “easy” about trading away a guy like Joe Burrow before he takes even a single NFL snap. Not after what he just did.

[Murdock2420]

(08-04-2020, 08:44 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: I get maybe preferring Lawrence a little more, but there would be nothing “easy” about trading away a guy like Joe Burrow before he takes even a single NFL snap. Not after what he just did.

To me that is exactly why you have to draft Lawrence.

Everyone said over and over, you can't trade the #1 pick if you have a chance to take a franchise changing QB. 

Well, no season means we don't know if Burrow is or isn't that guy. Is he the guy from his Senior year (sensational but hard to reproduce)? The guy from his Junior year (decent but not a top pick)? Or the guy that couldn't beat out J.T. Barrett or Dwayne Haskins for a starting gig at OSU? (Note, Barrett isn't in the NFL and Haskins is probably the worst starting QB in the league. Did OSU just totally wiff on Burrow or did he just have the stars align for a magical season and will fall back to middle of the pack. Solid, not super?)

None of those questions can be answered without a season. In Lawrence you have a guy that has lost 1 game in his college career. He wins when he plays bad, that is important in the NFL. How many teams play down to their opponent or have off weeks, the great QBs still find a way to win that ugly game.

Cards had Rosen, and never even hesitated to draft Kyler Murray, and it clearly was the right call.

The Bengals if given the chance should absolutely do the same. You are going to get atleast one elite QB from the two of them and the competition should make them both better. Whoever fits your style best and performs best you keep. 

As long as neither looks like Josh Rosen (lost and confused) you will get a good return upon trading them. 

Long story short, if the league gives you a chance at Lawrence, even with Burrow on the team, you pull the damn trigger. Hell, keep them both if you want, with the rookie contracts, and trade one for a ransom of picks when a team loses a starter at some point which always happens.

[QueenCity]

If you get Lawrence threaten to take him #1 and sell to the highest bidder.

Unless we have a few football games this year and we believe Burrow isn't the guy you trade for a ransom.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(08-04-2020, 11:34 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: To me that is exactly why you have to draft Lawrence.

Everyone said over and over, you can't trade the #1 pick if you have a chance to take a franchise changing QB. 

Well, no season means we don't know if Burrow is or isn't that guy. Is he the guy from his Senior year (sensational but hard to reproduce)? The guy from his Junior year (decent but not a top pick)? Or the guy that couldn't beat out J.T. Barrett or Dwayne Haskins for a starting gig at OSU? (Note, Barrett isn't in the NFL and Haskins is probably the worst starting QB in the league. Did OSU just totally wiff on Burrow or did he just have the stars align for a magical season and will fall back to middle of the pack. Solid, not super?)

None of those questions can be answered without a season. In Lawrence you have a guy that has lost 1 game in his college career. He wins when he plays bad, that is important in the NFL. How many teams play down to their opponent or have off weeks, the great QBs still find a way to win that ugly game.

Cards had Rosen, and never even hesitated to draft Kyler Murray, and it clearly was the right call.

The Bengals if given the chance should absolutely do the same. You are going to get atleast one elite QB from the two of them and the competition should make them both better. Whoever fits your style best and performs best you keep. 

As long as neither looks like Josh Rosen (lost and confused) you will get a good return upon trading them. 

Long story short, if the league gives you a chance at Lawrence, even with Burrow on the team, you pull the damn trigger. Hell, keep them both if you want, with the rookie contracts, and trade one for a ransom of picks when a team loses a starter at some point which always happens.

I just can’t get on board with this. You’re never getting the full value by trading the player vs trading the pick. If there was any doubt at all whether Burrow is the guy they would have just taken Chase Young and hoped to land Lawrence or Fields next year.

[Gamma Ray Tan]

You obviously trade the pick for a team’s next 3 years of #1 and 2 picks.

[Murdock2420]

(08-05-2020, 12:15 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: I just can’t get on board with this. You’re never getting the full value by trading the player vs trading the pick. If their was any doubt at all whether Burrow is the guy they would have just taken Chase Young and hoped to land Lawrence or Fields this year.

I'm okay with not getting full value, if you get the right guy by drafting them both. 

A first overall nets a decent haul but never forget we got two first round picks out of Carson Palmer. 

If you draft Lawrence, they compete and you get the one that is the right fit after competition and then trade the other for 2 first round picks... that is still damn good value. Sure, you lose out on a 2nd round pick maybe in this exchange, but I'd rather lose the 2nd and know we have "the guy" that will lead us.

 Burrow or Lawrence, whoever wins it outright, but nothing would hurt worse, then having a chance at Lawrence, trading the pick and seeing Burrow be good, even above average but not getting the team to the Super Bowl, and seeing Lawrence lead another team to a title. 

As you said last year leading up to the draft, an elite QB can change a team, and when you get the chance to make sure you have one by taking the guy who set records and then a guy who has been hyped as the best prospect for years and letting them settle it on the field, how can you pass that up? 

I'll add this in real fast, I have been a Clemson fan for years, back before they were actually winning anything and a part of that love of the team makes me lean towards Lawrence as does the success of Watson coming out of the same school.

The other big factor here is being a Bengals fan for life. We'll get a shot at Lawrence and pass.... and my fear is that Bengal karma kicks us as always, and Burrow goes the way of Ryan Leaf and is gone in a few years while Lawrence takes a team like Detroit or some other bad team that picks high and flips their fortunes and they get a title. It is just life as a Bengals fan, always waiting for the next kick to the gut. I want Burrow to succeed, I want him to be elite, but I have been burned by first round pick after first round pick with this team and it just would be our luck to have some rare thing happen that could benefit us and we some how Bengal it up.

[Bengal Dude]

There's speculation that Belichick is shadow tanking this season. Not necessarily going for the #1 spot, but getting a higher draft pick than what they're used to. If he loves Lawrence enough, then I see what they're willing to give up to get him.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(08-05-2020, 12:57 AM)Murdock2420 Wrote: I'm okay with not getting full value, if you get the right guy by drafting them both. 

A first overall nets a decent haul but never forget we got two first round picks out of Carson Palmer. 

If you draft Lawrence, they compete and you get the one that is the right fit after competition and then trade the other for 2 first round picks... that is still damn good value. Sure, you lose out on a 2nd round pick maybe in this exchange, but I'd rather lose the 2nd and know we have "the guy" that will lead us.

 Burrow or Lawrence, whoever wins it outright, but nothing would hurt worse, then having a chance at Lawrence, trading the pick and seeing Burrow be good, even above average but not getting the team to the Super Bowl, and seeing Lawrence lead another team to a title. 

As you said last year leading up to the draft, an elite QB can change a team, and when you get the chance to make sure you have one by taking the guy who set records and then a guy who has been hyped as the best prospect for years and letting them settle it on the field, how can you pass that up? 

Actually seeing Burrow go somewhere else and win a Super Bowl and pick up right where he left off in college while Trevor Lawrence became yet another QB who couldn’t get us over the hump would absolutely hurt worse. If Trevor has the better career so be it, but Joe is our guy, and it would be very hard to live with giving up on him prematurely. It could end being like Tampa giving up on Steve Young.

And far as the Palmer trade? Hue done ****** up with that one.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(08-05-2020, 01:04 AM)Bengal Dude Wrote: There's speculation that Belichick is shadow tanking this season. Not necessarily going for the #1 spot, but getting a higher draft pick than what they're used to. If he loves Lawrence enough, then I see what they're willing to give up to get him.

I seriously doubt anyone will be worse than JAX.

[guyofthetiger]

I've got an idea. Trade the pick to New England to get Belichick. Coaches have been traded and this would help Burrow get better.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(08-05-2020, 01:11 AM)guyofthetiger Wrote: I've got an idea. Trade the pick to New England to get Belichick. Coaches have been traded and this would help Burrow get better.

Hell, as bad as ZT was calling plays last year I’d probably trade for Josh McDaniels. Lol

[Murdock2420]

(08-05-2020, 01:10 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: I seriously doubt anyone will be worse than JAX.

What?? You doubt the magic of the moustache?? 

[Nicomo Cosca]

(08-05-2020, 01:14 AM)Murdock2420 Wrote: What?? You doubt the magic of the moustache?? 

Being able to throw a football over a mountain only gets you so far...

[Murdock2420]

(08-05-2020, 01:07 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Actually seeing Burrow go somewhere else and win a Super Bowl and pick up right where he left off in college while Trevor Lawrence became yet another QB who couldn’t get us over the hump would absolutely hurt worse. If Trevor has the better career so be it, but Joe is our guy, and it would be very hard to live with giving up on him prematurely. It could end being like Tampa giving up on Steve Young.

And far as the Palmer trade? Hue done ****** up with that one.

Yes, Hue did screw it up, but it could happen again.

I get the fear of Burrow going somewhere else and winning titles, I actually added to my post as you were replying. My fear is in line with that. We stick with Burrow and he is decent not great and Lawrence wins titles... it's the curse of being a Bengals fan, we always are waiting for the next kick.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(08-04-2020, 08:13 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Drew Brees is not one of the 3 best QB’s right now. There’s not a team in the league that would currently take him over Lamar Jackson.

And for the record I’m not saying always take the bigger guy, but if it’s close between 2 QB’s it could be a factor.

By what possible QB metric?


2019-2020
Drew Brees (26 starts): 74.7% Completion... 6,971 yards (8.0 YPA)... 59 TD/9 INT... QB Rating roughly 116.0
Lamar Jackson (22 starts): 63.7% Completion... 4,324 yards (7.6 YPA)... 42 TD/9 INT... QB Rating 104.7

Sure if you asked someone who you'd want over the next 3-5 years then Jackson is the choice due to age, but right this second Drew Brees is playing QB at just an absurd level. Dude is completing essentially 3 out of every 4 passes he attempts and he's doing it with a good-not-great defense and running game.

That's not even touching the concerning difference in performance Jackson's turned in the last two playoffs.
51.1% Completion... 3 TD/3 INT... 6.4 YPA... 68.3 QB Rating (And even most of the "positive" parts of that stat line were in garbage time.)

[Nicomo Cosca]

(08-05-2020, 04:33 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: By what possible QB metric?


2019-2020
Drew Brees (26 starts): 74.7% Completion... 6,971 yards (8.0 YPA)... 59 TD/9 INT... QB Rating roughly 116.0
Lamar Jackson (22 starts): 63.7% Completion... 4,324 yards (7.6 YPA)... 42 TD/9 INT... QB Rating 104.7

Sure if you asked someone who you'd want over the next 3-5 years then Jackson is the choice due to age, but right this second Drew Brees is playing QB at just an absurd level. Dude is completing essentially 3 out of every 4 passes he attempts and he's doing it with a good-not-great defense and running game.

That's not even touching the concerning difference in performance Jackson's turned in the last two playoffs.
51.1% Completion... 3 TD/3 INT... 6.4 YPA... 68.3 QB Rating

Using Lamar’s rookie numbers is a bit unfair. We’re talking about who’s better right now, not 2 years ago. And are you seriously going to just throw out passing stats like that tells the whole story here? Lamar led his team in rushing and was 6th in the entire league. 1200 yds. As a QB. That’s just insane. Add in the 36 passing TD’s to only 6 INT’s and that’s equals an MVP. He had a season for the ages.

Brees wasn’t even in the top 10 on the NFL 100 that just came out. Not that it’s a perfect list, I had plenty of issues with it, but I do agree with them that Mahomes, Lamar, and Wilson are all better QB’s right now.

[Nicomo Cosca]

It’s also fair to point out that the Saints didn’t miss a beat when Brees went down last season. Bridgewater was a perfect 5-0, and played really well. Sean Payton is a hell of a coach. I don’t think the Ravens go 5-0 without Lamar. I’m not knocking Brees though, he’s one of the GOAT, and it’s extremely impressive he’s still doing it at such a high level at his age.

[*Synric*]

(08-04-2020, 08:33 AM)mikey6866 Wrote: Easiest decision ever.  Take Lawrence trade burrow for a bunch of picks.

(08-04-2020, 11:34 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: To me that is exactly why you have to draft Lawrence.

Don't buy into the 5 star hype (pre-draft year media) until you put the player under the microscope.

 I haven't broken down Lawrence specifically yet but I do know he was not as accurate as Tua or Burrow. He also has played in only around 3 games vs tough opponents. Lawrence looked like a future hall of fame guy vs Alabama but was mediocre against Ohio State and below average vs LSU. I do know he has the build and arm of a prototypical QB.

[Murdock2420]

(08-05-2020, 02:31 PM)Synric Wrote: Don't buy into the 5 star hype (pre-draft year media) until you put the player under the microscope.

 I haven't broken down Lawrence specifically yet but I do know he was not as accurate as Tua or Burrow. He also has played in only around 3 games vs tough opponents. Lawrence looked like a future hall of fame guy vs Alabama but was mediocre against Ohio State and below average vs LSU. I do know he has the build and arm of a prototypical QB.

As I admitted earlier, I am biased as I'm a lifelong Clemson fan, actually wanted to go there but life had other plans, and a proud UC grad I am.

But, watching their games the past two years, that arm is NFL ready. And that is what I really like about him as a prospect. He fits the two way threat as well, since he can hurt you with his feet, but he has a bigger frame and build then a guy like Lamar Jackson, which should allow him to last a little longer in the NFL.

His accuracy is not as good as Burrow's that is true, but accuracy and mechanics can be worked on and coached up, arm strength and athletic ability and vision you just have to have naturally. He has the latter three, can run, has a rocket for a left arm, and does well when things break down using his legs. That leaves it up to a coaching staff to work on his accuracy with better decision making and mechanical tweaks. Overall, like I said, even with Burrow on the team, if you have a chance at this guy you have to take him. You will hit on one, and if you hit on both, teams will be knocking on your door ready to over-pay when they lose a starting QB or have a guy drafted as the heir apparent fail miserably as was the case in Pitt with Mason Rudolph. 

To get the best value you would have to be willing to be patient, and that is one area Mike Brown has shown ability.