OUR 5 Bold Predictions for the 2020 Season

[*SHRacerX*]

(08-10-2020, 11:33 AM)fredtoast Wrote: 1. Mixon breaks Bengals single season rushing record.  Rudi Johnson averaged 91.1 yards per game to set the record (1458) in 2005.  Mixon averaged 102.1 over the second half of last season and I believe the O-line will be better this year.

2. Pratt finished top 10 in the league in tackles.  Pratt's playing time increased steadily over the 2019 season until over the last 4 games he was playing 70% of the snaps.  Pratt had 34 tackles over those final 4 games.  I know it is a small sample size, but projected over a full season his 136 tackles would have ranked 9th in the league.  And, to be honest, with Vigil gone I look for Pratt to play well over 70% of the snaps this year.  I really like the guys we drafted, but I don't expect middle round picks to step in play at a top level immediately as rookies.

3.  Drew Sample will have more receiving yards than any Bengal TE in 5 years.  Not as incredible as it first sounds when you realize he only has to get to 440 yards.  Eifert is gone and I see pictures of Sample working out with Burrow.  I think they are building a chemistry.  And a rookie QB playing behind a sketchy O-line will be looking for his TE a lot.

4.  Our defensive backs will have 5+ sacks.  Over the last two season our DBs have combined for just 3 sacks (2 by Shawn Williams, 1 by DreKirk), but both Vonn Bell and MacKensie Alexander have seasons with 4+ sacks.  I see us using lot of sets with 3 Safeties on the filed at the same time and also using "run blitzes" that can lead to sacks on first and second down.

5.  Bengals win Super Bowl.  Why the **** not?

Well said, Fred.  

I have to go after #1, though.  Can we make it all-purpose yards instead of just rushing yards?  I want to see him used more and more as a receiver.  And I don't want him getting ridiculous numbers of carries per game and taking a pounding, wearing him out by the playoffs.  I love your 2-5, though.  

[*SHRacerX*]

(08-10-2020, 11:46 AM)fredtoast Wrote: No he does not suck.  You are a perfect example of the people who love to make Hart a whipping boy.  You judge him by 2018 and ignore how much he improved in 2019

In 2019 Bobby Hart played 92 more snaps than he did in 2018 (1086 to 994), but even more important the Bengals had 85 more passing plays (attempts + sacks) than 2018 (664 to 579).  Yet Hart only allowed about a third as many sacks in 2019 as 2018 (4 to 11.5) and he cut his penalties in half (12 to 6).  Only 2 of Harts 6 penalties were holding.

There were 64 players that started at least 8 games as an OT last year and played at least 500 snaps.  If you look at snaps per (sacks allowed + holding penalties) Hart ranked 13th among those 64.  He also ranked 25th in sacks per snap. 


https://www.milehighreport.com/2020/2/18/21142328/2019-offensive-line-pass-blocking-review 

I will also say this for Hart:   Incredibly durable.  That being said, and although it shouldn't matter, reading his twitter makes me hate the guy and want him gone.  

[Wes Mantooth]

(08-10-2020, 11:46 AM)fredtoast Wrote: No he does not suck.  You are a perfect example of the people who love to make Hart a whipping boy.  You judge him by 2018 and ignore how much he improved in 2019

In 2019 Bobby Hart played 92 more snaps than he did in 2018 (1086 to 994), but even more important the Bengals had 85 more passing plays (attempts + sacks) than 2018 (664 to 579).  Yet Hart only allowed about a third as many sacks in 2019 as 2018 (4 to 11.5) and he cut his penalties in half (12 to 6).  Only 2 of Harts 6 penalties were holding.

There were 64 players that started at least 8 games as an OT last year and played at least 500 snaps.  If you look at snaps per (sacks allowed + holding penalties) Hart ranked 13th among those 64.  He also ranked 25th in sacks per snap. 


https://www.milehighreport.com/2020/2/18/21142328/2019-offensive-line-pass-blocking-review 

Sacks Per + Holding Penalties???

Man, you're really going out of your way on this one.  Kids, if you wanted an example "you can make statistics anything you want" this is a perfect example right here.

What Fred is convienently leaving out are obvious things, such as: False starts, pressures allowed, run blocking, etc.

Whether or not you want to use the description "sucks", you'll find he's well below average if you look at his complete body of work.  Run blocking matters (especially from the RT).  Pressures matter. False starts matter. 

Creating some made up metric of "Sacks per + Holding calls X 3.142 - the Atomic Weight of Helium = X" isn't an accurate or honest way to grade the position.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(08-10-2020, 12:53 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: Ok, but if he does, I will say it isn't that bold to say that the Bengals will be in the postseason.  I'm counting on him and Ross staying healthy.  

I don’t think we’re quite there yet. OL a huge work in progress, bunch of rookie LBers, etc. I’m feeling more 6-7 wins. Considering we only won 2 last year that would still be a pretty nice step forward.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(08-10-2020, 12:59 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: I will also say this for Hart:   Incredibly durable.  That being said, and although it shouldn't matter, reading his twitter makes me hate the guy and want him gone.  

Is he? He missed a bunch of games in NY.

[fredtoast]

(08-10-2020, 01:01 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Sacks Per + Holding Penalties???

Man, you're really going out of your way on this one.  Kids, if you wanted an example "you can make statistics anything you want" this is a perfect example right here.

Creating some made up metric of "Sacks per + Holding calls X 3.142 - the Atomic Weight of Helium = X" isn't an accurate or honest way to grade the position.

I did not create the stat.  And among other people who try to analyze pass protection it is not uncommon to count a holding penalty the same as a sack.  They both measure the same thing.  A guy who is horrible at pass protection can keep his sack numbers low by holding all the time.

Also funny how when people piss on some stat I use the never offer any statistical analysis of their own.  

[*Synric*]

(08-10-2020, 01:12 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I did not create the stat.  And among other people who try to analyze pass protection it is not uncommon to count a holding penalty the same as a sack.  They both measure the same thing.  A guy who is horrible at pass protection can keep his sack numbers low by holding all the time.

Also funny how when people piss on some stat I use the never offer any statistical analysis of their own.  

Quote: 
Hart is, in fact, not a good tackle. For example, Pro Football Focus gives him a pass-blocking grade of 60.3 on the season to date, which ranks 49t out of 62 qualified tackles based on snaps played. He is credited with allowing four sacks, three hits, and 23 hurries for 30 total pressures on the season, the eighth-most total pressures allowed by any tackle in the league.

https://steelersdepot.com/2019/11/on-this-afternoon-against-t-j-watt-have-a-heart-for-bobby-hart/

This is an article posted before the second Steelers game so with 6 games left on the schedule Bobby Hart had given up 30 pressures. For Comparison he gave up a total of 39 pressures in 2018.

Also over the last two seasons Hart has graded out in the bottom 10 as a run blocker.

[Wes Mantooth]

(08-10-2020, 01:12 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Also funny how when people piss on some stat I use the never offer any statistical analysis of their own.  

Bobby Hart's PFF rating last year 57.7.

If you're not familiar with their rating system, here it is:




PFF

@PFF

The Player Grading Scale:

100-90 Elite
89-85 Pro Bowler
84-70 Starter
69-60 Backup
59-0 Replaceable

He's doesn't even chart good enough to be a backup.

[fredtoast]

(08-10-2020, 01:31 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Bobby Hart's PFF rating last year 57.7.

If you're not familiar with their rating system, here it is:




PFF

@PFF

The Player Grading Scale:

100-90 Elite
89-85 Pro Bowler
84-70 Starter
69-60 Backup
59-0 Replaceable

He's doesn't even chart good enough to be a backup.

That is the same PFF rating system that said Dalton was a better QB in 2018 than 2015.  It is a joke.  You can't even tell me what stats they used to come up with that number because all they use is a subjective grading system they plug into a formula so faulty that a player can be ranked higher than another despite playing fewer snaps and messing up more often.  

Every year we see free agents that are the darlings of the PFF ranking get paid peanuts because NFL teams know the PFF individual player ratings are worthless.

FootballOutsiders count "blown blocks" and based on their calculations Hart's 23 blown blocks were not among the top 20 for most by an OT, and he is just outside of the top twenty for most snaps per blown block by an OT.  The Falcons Jake Matthews ranked 20th with one every 51.7 snaps while Hart had one every 48.3.

If anyone else can provide other stats like pressures or hurries allowed I would like to see them.  But all the objective stats that I can find show that Hart was far from sucking in 2019.

[Nicomo Cosca]

Your go-to response about Dalton to discredit PFF is really quite lame. PFF isn’t the end all be all wrt to judging players, but it is also far from a “joke” just because of one example you don’t agree with.

But forget PFF, if Hart is as good as you say, why is there a open competition at RT? Especially with the other contender being a “scrub” (your words).

[*bengalfan74*]

1. Our LBer group isn't total trash all season.

2. Our defense makes it into the top 15

3. Drew Sample shuts down all the worst pick of all time talk.

4. Sam Hubbard has 15 sacks.

5. Burrow breaks rookie TD record.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(08-10-2020, 02:07 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: 1. Our LBer group isn't total trash all season.

2. Our defense makes it into the top 15

3. Drew Sample shuts down all the worst pick of all time talk.

4. Sam Hubbard has 15 sacks.

5. Burrow breaks rookie TD record.

#4 is quite bold indeed. That would break big Los’ single season franchise sack record.

[*SHRacerX*]

(08-10-2020, 01:05 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: I don’t think we’re quite there yet. OL a huge work in progress, bunch of rookie LBers, etc. I’m feeling more 6-7 wins. Considering we only won 2 last year that would still be a pretty nice step forward.

I get it.  That is a common thought, but I think last year's team is irrelevant to this year's success with one exception:  It showed it can adapt to what it has and improved throughout the year.  Not trying to start another Marv debate with Fred but I rarely saw that under previous regime.

Look at all that is new:

Starting QB coming off best season in history of college football
AJ Green returning
Jonah Williams returning
Joe Mixon (hopefully used more as a receiver this year) end of year ascent

On defense:

DJ Reader in the middle next to Geno
Josh Bynes veteran LB coming off playoff team
Vonn Bell at SS
Mackenzie Alexander at slot CB
Trae Waynes at outside CB
Healthy WJIII

Aside from Mixon and WJIII, the rest are all-new compared to last year's squad.  And every player on that list is arguably an improvement over what was in that spot last year.  In many cases (Green, Williams, Reader, and Bell) a TREMENDOUS improvement.  

I also look at last year's squad as likely a 4-5 win team if Dalton played all 16 games, but you get what I'm saying.  

I also get what you are saying and historical logic says you will be closer to correct than my estimates.  

[fredtoast]

(08-10-2020, 02:07 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: But forget PFF, if Hart is as good as you say, why is there a open competition at RT? Especially with the other contender being a “scrub” (your words).

There is open competition at every position.

[fredtoast]

(08-10-2020, 02:07 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Your go-to response about Dalton to discredit PFF is really quite lame. PFF isn’t the end all be all wrt to judging players, but it is also far from a “joke” just because of one example you don’t agree with.

It is not "just one example".  I actually have quite a list if you want to see it.

The ratings may not be a "joke" but they are definitely not reliable.  As I already pointed out, the formula they use allows a player to be rated ahead of another despite playing fewer snaps and messing up more often.  Not only is it based on subjective impressions the actual formula is flawed.

[*SHRacerX*]

(08-10-2020, 01:09 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Is he? He missed a bunch of games in NY.

Hasn't missed a snap here and is STILL just 25 years old.  FWIW, Whit was 27 before he became a starting tackle.  

Jesus, can we start games already?  I am defending Fred and Bobby Hart.  Someone call the white coats and sedate me. 

[*bfine32*]

(08-10-2020, 12:54 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: #2 in the NFL?  

On the team

[Wes Mantooth]

(08-10-2020, 01:51 PM)fredtoast Wrote: That is the same PFF rating system that said Dalton was a better QB in 2018 than 2015.  It is a joke.  You can't even tell me what stats they used to come up with that number because all they use is a subjective grading system they plug into a formula so faulty that a player can be ranked higher than another despite playing fewer snaps and messing up more often.  

Perhaps they took into account the players and play around him?  Let's not kid ourselves, there was a huge difference in talent that surrounded Dalton in 2015 vs. 2018.

2015

WR - AJ Green, Marvin Jones, Muhamed Sanu (All played 16 games, all in their prime)
OL - Andre Whitworth, Clint Boling, Russell Bodine, Kevin Zeitler, Andre Smith
TE - An in his prime, and healthy Tyler Eifert (Career high year)
Def - 2nd ranked in points allowed.

2018

WR - AJ Green, Tyler Boyd, John Ross (Green missed 7 games)
OL - Cordy Glenn, Clint Boling, Billy Price, Alex Redmond, Bobby Hart
TE - CJ Uzomah
Def -30th ranked in points allowed

The difference is OL talent is staggering.  The difference in TE is staggering.  The difference in defense in staggering. The difference at WR is more than noticable.

Could these things not help to explain why, depsite lesser numbers, his actual skill level may have been very similar?

I think the problem is, you're only looking to stats to help explain your position, whereas they are looking at everything.  Every single play, and every single player.

If, in 2015, Andy Dalton has 5+ seconds to sit in the pocket and throws to a wide open player who goes in for a TD then that isn't necessarily completely reflected in a stat line.  If, in 2018, Andy Dalton drops back to throw and has a guy in his face after 2 seconds and he tries to hit a receiver who ran the wrong route, then that isn't completely reflected either.  One stat simply says TD, and the other says incompletion. Completely ignoring everything else that surrounds the play.

Lastly, consider all of the above, and look at these numbers.

-In 2015 Dalton averaged 250 passing yards per game.

-In 2018 Dalton averaged 233 passing yards a game.

-In 2015 Dalton threw 25 TD's in 13 games. (1.92 per)

-In 2018 Dalton threw 21 TD's in 11 games. (1.91 per)

His overall QB rating went from 106.2 to 89.6. Why?  His completion % dropped 5 points and he threw 4 more picks.  Again, I think if you consider everything then this can somewhat be explain.

I don't think, knowing all of this, that is completely out of the realm for them to sit down and analyze everything, and come to their conclusion.  to each their own though...

[Mer]

By the looks of this thread my single bold prediction about Bobby Hart must be the boldest. I didn't mean to start a debate.

I'm with Fred on this one. Show me all the ratings you want but using the eye test Hart did improve last year as compared to 2018. Now that's not to say he's irreplaceable. In the hypothetical 2021 First pick thread I stated trade down with a team and try to get a good RT from the trade partner.

[*Synric*]

(08-10-2020, 01:51 PM)fredtoast Wrote: If anyone else can provide other stats like pressures or hurries allowed I would like to see them.  But all the objective stats that I can find show that Hart was far from sucking in 2019.

During the first 10 games Bobby Hart gave up 4 sacks 3 QB hits and 23 hurries for a total of 30 pressures with 6 games left to play which was the 8th worst pressure rate in the NFL. In 2018 he gave up 39 total pressures with 10 of them being sacks. While Bobby Hart didnt give up as many sacks in 2019 he still allowed alot of pressure on the QB. As a pass protector Hart went from one of the worst in the NFL in 2018 to merely below average in 2019....And hes a better pass protector than run blocker.