Mixon's Migrane Should Be Good Now

[PDub80]

(09-01-2020, 03:58 PM)Au165 Wrote: No, the extension is 48 over 4. He has one year remaining on the current deal to make it 5. Now if they spread some money forward to this year and we are looking at somethign closer to 10 a year with little guranteed after 3 it wouldn't be a train wreck.

^ Your latter statement is correct, I believe.

[Okeana]

(09-01-2020, 04:09 PM)BobJones4980 Wrote: Thats insanity, your talking about saving a million to replace a guy that had more rushing yards than both those guys with one of if not the worst Oline in the NFL.

Jones had defenses worried about Aaron Rodgers while Mixon had defenses looking at a washed up Dalton and a rookie at QB.

Not to mention the Colts have one of the best lines in the NFL and Mack still looked pedestrian.

yeah its laughable to even compare the situation.  Both guys had much better offensive lines to play behind and Mixon has played behind the worst offensive line in nearly 20 years for the Bengals.

[Housh]

12 mil per of there wasn’t a signing bonus. But we all know he likely got at least 20 up front so ima just assume his salary is around 8 mil per


This is a GREAT deal for Mixon’s skill and compared to what other running backs whose teams depend on them as much as we do Mixon have had to pay their guys.


I’ll tell you what Mike Brown has ALWAYS been very good at signing back guys the fans take to.

[fredtoast]

(09-01-2020, 04:09 PM)BacknDaDey Wrote: Do you think they will let Gio go after paying Mixon?

Not this year.  We don't really need the cap space and we have zero proven RBs behind MIxon.  Plus Gio played more than most people think last year.  He was in on over 40% of the offensive snaps.

But he will carry a $4.8 cap hit next year.  So if Mixon stays healthy Gio probably isn't here in 2021.

[Okeana]

(09-01-2020, 04:09 PM)Au165 Wrote: Nah, that isn't how it works. It didn't dissolve the 1.7 he was owed this year. Now with that said, the Bengals historically front-load, so it is very possible they load 10 of it into this year to make the last 4 years much lower. The structure will matter here. If the bulk of the guarantee is done 3 years in it's not the worst thing in the world.

yeah, what we should see this year is a large signing bonus and the remainder split over 5.  This deal will look like a steal after AJ green stubs his toe and sits out the year raking in another 17m to do nothing?  or signing a cornerback who rips his titty 2 days into practice and is out for the year.  

[NATI BENGALS]

Made him the #6 highest paid RB by average annual value. Not bad. I expect Kamara to get slightly more making him fall to #7.

Congrats Joe. Keep up the good work

[Au165]

(09-01-2020, 04:14 PM)Okeana Wrote: yeah, what we should see this year is a large signing bonus and the remainder split over 5.  This deal will look like a steal after AJ green stubs his toe and sits out the year raking in another 17m to do nothing?  or signing a cornerback who rips his titty 2 days into practice and is out for the year.  

It won't because signing HB's is bad business. The below article on HB contract basically sums up why. It comes down to the fact that only about 10% of backs receiving second long term contracts maintain their production from before the contract. 90% of them either slowly declining or fall completely off the cliff but most are cut by the 2nd/3rd year.

https://overthecap.com/the-outcomes-of-running-back-contracts/

[Okeana]

(09-01-2020, 04:11 PM)Housh Wrote: 12 mil per of there wasn’t a signing bonus. But we all know he likely got at least 20 up front so ima just assume his salary is around 8 mil per


This is a GREAT deal for Mixon’s skill and compared to what other running backs whose teams depend on them as much as we do Mixon have had to pay their guys.


I’ll tell you what Mike Brown has ALWAYS been very good at signing back guys the fans take to.

What Mike Brown really likes is getting skilled guys who have a character concern and they prove him right in every way.  Remember the national media when he was drafted and the apology tour they went on.  Now that he's proven the whole narrative wrong it will get a 2 min segment on good morning football.

[BobJones4980]

(09-01-2020, 04:10 PM)Au165 Wrote: I can name a bunch of guys, point being HB's are a function of blocking. Advanced metrics will go as far as to say rushing outcomes most the time are functions of box counts. Either way, there will be a surplus of backs in FA and recent HB contracts have blown up most the time.

How'd Gio look running behind this Oline last year? Not anywhere near as good as Mixon. This idea that you can plug any RB into any system and have the same results is crazy, especially when were talking 1-2 mil difference in Mixon vs a guy like Mack.

[leonardfan40]

(09-01-2020, 04:09 PM)Au165 Wrote: Nah, that isn't how it works. It didn't dissolve the 1.7 he was owed this year. Now with that said, the Bengals historically front-load, so it is very possible they load 10 of it into this year to make the last 4 years much lower. The structure will matter here. If the bulk of the guarantee is done 3 years in it's not the worst thing in the world.

Initial reaction to seeing 4 yrs $48 mil was big overpay. You’re right, depending how they structure it will determine how bad/decent of a deal it is. I’ll wait until I see the final numbers before going off the deep end. Thought he was worth $8-9 mil/yr and we could be close to that around $10 mil which isn’t the end of the world. Still a little surprised to see them go that high during this year with next years cap in question

[Geno_Can_Dunk]

Good deal, I'm glad.

Whether you call it 48 over the *next* 4 years, or 48 over this year plus the next 4 years is academic. Either way, if you include this year's salary, it's a hair under 50 million for 5 years. We're probably shoving a bunch of it into this year's cap, but even if we aren't cap space rolls over so i'm not sure it matters.

And you'd rather have Jones or Mack for 9 than Mixon for 10? I mean how many hairs are we splitting here?

[Au165]

(09-01-2020, 04:19 PM)BobJones4980 Wrote: How'd Gio look running behind this Oline last year? Not anywhere near as good as Mixon. This idea that you can plug any RB into any system and have the same results is crazy, especially when were talking 1-2 mil difference in Mixon vs a guy like Mack.

Technically, Gio falls into the group that Mixon is heading into, which I am warning you about going in to. The stats show us the HBs on second and third contracts decline significantly, Mixon's production will start declining in the next two years if we are simply playing the data we know from the last decade or so on HBs.

[*bfine32*]

Two things:

The Bengals are very fiscally smart when it comes to signing contracts

Joe will make $1.2 Mil for next year (rookie contract) and $48 Mil for the next 4. So the final number we spend on him for the next 5 years is $49.2 Mil or about $9.84 Mil a year. I;m sure once all the final numbers come out, Katie has set the team up successfully.

I'm glad to see it

[Big Boss]

Might prove to be an overpay in the long run, but I really like him and wanted to keep him here. If he keeps producing at his level I've got no qualms with the team digging deeper into the wallet.

If they really want to get their money's worth, gotta get him more involved in the passing game.

[*pally*]

Look on the bright side. The deal is likely less expensive now with Mixon setting the price than it would have been in Alvin Kamara and/or Dalvin Cook got their deals first

[BobJones4980]

(09-01-2020, 04:23 PM)Au165 Wrote: Technically, Gio falls into the group that Mixon is heading into, which I am warning you about going in to. The stats show us the HBs on second and third contracts decline significantly, Mixon's production will start declining in the next two years if we are simply playing the data we know from the last decade or so on HBs.

So Gio falls into that group because hes on his 2nd contract? I'm sure it has nothing to do with a better RB being in front of him, or playing behind one of the worst Olines in the NFL. I'm sure it's just the fact he is on that 2nd contract. 

Simple fact is that this is the time to overpay a bit for a stable RB that can do it all to help your new QB and when it's time for that 3rd contract you move on. Right now you pay to give your rookie QB all the help you can instead of signing some random that gives him 3 yards a carry and can't pass protect.

[Wes Mantooth]

I'm not really sure where the confusion lies as far as extensions go.

He had one year remaining. He's being extended for an additional 4 years. He is now signed through the next 5 seasons.

And the new deal is worth 12 mil per. You have to take the extension on it's own, just like you would for a free agent signing. Just because he's signed for an average amount over 5 years does not mean this extension costs us that average.

We valued Joe Mixon at 12 mil per. I think it's a terrible contract, but I'll leave it at that. I know how the board works, and people will pitch a fit over peceived negativity.

Fwiw, I've said all along I thought he was worth between 8-10, with 8 being a bargain and 10 being paying a premium. I said anything over 10 and it's not worth it. To each their own.

[*SHRacerX*]

(09-01-2020, 04:02 PM)Au165 Wrote: No such thing as that deal being a bargain in the current realities of HB's in the NFL. I'd rather give Aaron Jones or maybe Marlon Mack 8 or 9 a year, to be honest. 

We can debate that point if the Bengals continue to waste his (and frankly, Gio's) value as a potential receiver.  Right now, for what Mixon can bring to the table, I consider the contract fair and could (emphasis on the word COULD) prove to be a bargain.  If he puts up CMC numbers this year, we will be singing the Brown family's praises for getting it done in advance.

Plus, at the very least, it is one thing less that ZT has to worry about.  His team, as he wished it to be assembled, is largely healthy and ready to take the field.  

[CJD]

I would have preferred a deal under 10 million a year, but I think the Henry deal kind of set the market for RBs. Mixon is younger, is a better receiver and has more room to grow than Henry so it makes sense that he'd get paid similar to him.

I'm glad this one extension is done and over with. Now we can focus on Green, Lawson and WJIII next year!  All three have big years coming up, as they each have injury concerns but a big year could mean a big pay day for their next contracts.

[*bfine32*]

(09-01-2020, 04:35 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: I'm not really sure where the confusion lies as far as extensions go.

He had one year remaining. He's being extended for an additional 4 years.  He is now signed through the next 5 seasons.

And the new deal is worth 12 mil per.  You have to take the extension on it's own, just like you would for a free agent signing.  Just because he's signed for an average amount over 5 years does not mean this extension costs us that average.

We valued Joe Mixon at 12 mil per.  I think it's a terrible contract, but I'll leave it at that.  I know how the board works, and people will pitch a fit over peceived negativity.

Fwiw, I've said all along I thought he was worth between 8-10, with 8 being a bargain and 10 being paying a premium.  I said anything over 10 and it's not worth it.  To each their own.

Would you call it a terrible deal if we tore up his rookie contract today and signed him for $49 Mil for 5 years? That puts you under your $10 Mil threshold. It's why many teams are doing extensions instead of new contracts it makes everyone happy.......well not some folks on a message board.