All Icing No Cake

[masterpanthera_t]

(09-08-2020, 08:52 PM)Bmore Birds Wrote: I'm not a true stat geek because context means a lot too. But in you want to see some numbers...

John Verros, the injury coordinator at Sports Info Solutions, looked at the injury rate on four types of plays from the last three seasons (2017-2019):

Knockdowns: 1 injury every 57.1 plays (90 total injuries on 5,135 plays for a 1.8% injury rate)
Sacks: 1 injury every 75.1 plays (52 total injuries on 3,903 for a 1.3% injury rate)
Scrambles: 1 injury every 106.7 plays (23 total injuries on 2,455 plays for a 0.9% injury rate)
Designed runs: 1 injury for every 174.2 plays (11 total injuries on 1,916 plays for an 0.6% injury rate)

Anyway, I really respect and appreciate the discussion. It's a blessing and objective fans are hard to find. Thankful for you guys

(09-08-2020, 09:44 PM)Bmore Birds Wrote: I automatically try to poke holes in studies because some of them are skewed to prove a narrative. (Like asking 1000 teachers if schools need more money or 1000 coaches if sports are important for child development, like duuuh).

But it kind of makes sense because you can't see all pocket pressure and can get rolled up on. Then I did the Lamar video to see all his runs at once and I was convinced, but still like to hear others' opinions.

I think RGIII himself ruined a lot of people's viewpoint because he had no vision or common sense running. Think of Cunningham, Young, McNabb, even Vick, Wilson, Cam lasted for a good bit. LJ will get hurt and banged up because he plays football. Yes he will slow down. But I think he's actually safest on runs designed to the outside.

I don't necessarily disagree with these posts because you make logical sense. But I do think that designed run stats might be safe in the context that typically you have them be a smaller percentage of runs in a game (I could be wrong about this), whereas, the Ravens rely on Lamar's designed runs to a much greater degree, that defenses might actually be less surprised and therefore more likely to actually hurt Lamar with a solid tackle. The great thing about Lamar's slight frame is the eel like slippery quality he has that he is hard to catch and even harder to hit cleanly. But the disadvantage of that wiry frame is that it really only takes one solid hit.

It could be my orange tinted glasses as a Bengals fan speaking, but I don't see his passing IQ or skill having progressed to the level of a great pocket QB. IMO, the threat of his running opens up a lot of easy passes even downfield, that simply wouldn't be available to most other QBs. If a defense figures out how to take his running lanes away, then he might become exposed for the average passer he is. But that's so far shown to be a huge IF. And, as I said, I might be seeing what I want to see, rather than what is.

[Bmore Birds]

(09-12-2020, 03:51 PM)masterpanthera_t Wrote: I don't necessarily disagree with these posts because you make logical sense. But I do think that designed run stats might be safe in the context that typically you have them be a smaller percentage of runs in a game (I could be wrong about this), whereas, the Ravens rely on Lamar's designed runs to a much greater degree, that defenses might actually be less surprised and therefore more likely to actually hurt Lamar with a solid tackle. The great thing about Lamar's slight frame is the eel like slippery quality he has that he is hard to catch and even harder to hit cleanly. But the disadvantage of that wiry frame is that it really only takes one solid hit.

It could be my orange tinted glasses as a Bengals fan speaking, but I don't see his passing IQ or skill having progressed to the level of a great pocket QB. IMO, the threat of his running opens up a lot of easy passes even downfield, that simply wouldn't be available to most other QBs. If a defense figures out how to take his running lanes away, then he might become exposed for the average passer he is. But that's so far shown to be a huge IF. And, as I said, I might be seeing what I want to see, rather than what is.

Thanks for taking the time to post this.

To your first paragraph: He does get to the sideline a lot. We leave the DE unblocked on those plays and Lamar keeps it only if the DE bites on the run. So it's mostly DBs who tackle him or run him out of bounds. It is a valid concern though. Lamar has to be smart about it but the plays are set up to give him the option of avoiding contact. You're right though, it only takes one hit. Disagree that defenses are surprised, pretty sure they've been wary of the read option since his first game.

Second paragraph: That's really the multi million dollar question. Safe to say he's not a bad passer but opinions really vary from there.

[masterpanthera_t]

(09-12-2020, 04:45 PM)Bmore Birds Wrote: Thanks for taking the time to post this.

To your first paragraph: He does get to the sideline a lot. We leave the DE unblocked on those plays and Lamar keeps it only if the DE bites on the run. So it's mostly DBs who tackle him or run him out of bounds. It is a valid concern though. Lamar has to be smart about it but the plays are set up to give him the option of avoiding contact. You're right though, it only takes one hit. Disagree that defenses are surprised, pretty sure they've been wary of the read option since his first game.

Second paragraph: That's really the multi million dollar question. Safe to say he's not a bad passer but opinions really vary from there.

Thanks to you for posting the stats and the analysis you made from those stats.

To the bolded: I'm saying the same thing you're saying. That because defenses are less surprised about the read option, especially because (I am not sure if stats back this up), the Ravens use designed runs at a much higher rate than other teams in previous years, the defense is expecting a Lamar run and more likely to get a hit on him. Also, the reason why I said that while designed runs are less likely to lead to injuries, it's usually (IMO) because a defense is likely to be surprised by it. But because defenses are not as surprised when they play the Ravens, those injury stats might not be in the same context. Hope that makes it clear. And because they use more designed runs, there's a chance Lamar will get "caught" in one of those runs that leads to an injury. I'm just wondering if the conclusion I drew could be plausible. If Lamar keeps running circles around defenses for one more season, perhaps I'd lean more toward the conclusion that he's that "one exceptional player" who sees the field so well, is so fast and so elusive, that he simply cannot be injured by a clean hit. Which, I'm not dismissing right now. We'll get more evidence this season, so let's see. I just happen to think if he's not that type of exception, then eventually his passing deficiencies will not be patched up enough to make him on the same level as a Mahomes or Russell Wilson. But we're talking about three to five years from now. Anyways, we'll find out.

[Bmore Birds]

Ok I gotcha, I misunderstood that

[Bmore Birds]

Not sure if you saw my videos. I posted them here before but they're spread out. The counter I included is subjective. But this is the end of every carry the Qbs had last year. It's a good eye test exercise. I'd love for you to watch them and respond. I spent a lot of time on this to help consider Lamar's longevity just as a runner.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BB3R7Ae1at8 - Lamar
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mckgNi17ITU&t=102s - Allen

[masterpanthera_t]

(09-12-2020, 05:14 PM)Bmore Birds Wrote: Not sure if you saw my videos. I posted them here before but they're spread out. The counter I included is subjective. But this is the end of every carry the Qbs had last year. It's a good eye test exercise. I'd love for you to watch them and respond. I spent a lot of time on this to help consider Lamar's longevity just as a runner.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BB3R7Ae1at8 - Lamar
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mckgNi17ITU&t=102s - Allen

Thanks for the videos.

I watched LJ's runs for about the first half of the video. I didn't see any runs where he made dumb decisions and took bad hits when he could have avoided them. I've seen many other qb's take such hits and I've always wondered why (are they really that confident in their invincibility or are they just that stupid). One of RG III's and Cam Newton's hits to the head where they could've avoided it by either slowing down or slipping or going out of bounds comes to mind.

Having said that, I saw enough hits that he took which would make me nervous if he played QB for my team. Granted he's very elusive and fast, and seemed to avoid the nasty hits well by getting to the sidelines, but there are still many runs where the sidelines are closed off, and I'm seeing him get hit by DEs and LBs or safeties. In fact, because I hadn't seen much of LJ's play last year except for highlights, now that I've seen this video, I'm leaning more towards the "he's really taking a risk and that one bad hit that would lead to an injury" is more likely to happen. Perhaps multiple such hits over the course of his career. Again, I could be talking out of bias, but I don't believe so.

I watched just a couple Allen runs, but suffice to say his lack of elusiveness (compared to LJ and the NFL level) and his larger size, makes me believe he is very likely to get hurt from his running.

I don't much like stating things about people and their potential for injury, since I try to avoid speaking these kind of things "into existence" if you will, but when I saw those videos, those were my thoughts from a practical point of view. Perhaps LJ will be lucky, but watching that video, to me, induces a real urgency that LJ needs to develop into a "very good" pocket passer than the "average" one that he is, and that too very soon, like this year, otherwise his career may not bode well. Again, just the opinions of a rival team's fan, so I certainly wouldn't begrudge anyone for disagreeing here. And of course, LJ might just completely prove me wrong this year, and I will either chalk it up to "I don't know jack diddly" or "he was lucky and you just wait and see".

EDIT:
I wanted to add, unlike Russell Wilson, who even in his rookie year, had great downfield vision, and was able to run just enough to create space and unload deep passes, I'm not sure LJ does that anywhere near as well. But honestly, I simply may not have seen enough of him to know this. The designed runs where he has two people (linemen, or linebackers) hit him are more worrisome because his frame is really very small for an NFL qb. He obviously reminds me of Michael Vick, with a better passing vision, but about the same slightness of build. And we know how Vick has dealt with injuries. I'm surprised that even today, there's really only one or two QBs fitting the Russell Wilson mold (Mahomes, to a smaller extent), that are runners who almost never take bad hits and run mainly to buy time to make a sure pass.

[Bmore Birds]

You da man! Thanks again

[*rfaulk34*]

...turnin' into ***** kindergarten in here...

[Bmore Birds]

Don't sleep on LJ's vision, it's already very good. Even with a nice scheme, dude only had 6 INTs. We had a lack of talent outside. Hollywood played hurt and Boykin can't run routes to save his life. At least last year, hopefully he's improved but LJ didn't trust him at all. I can say that with confidence having watched a ton of tape.

My biggest beef with Lamar is the lack of a laser arm to exploit the sidelines. He's also a smart QB, like the anti Fitzpatrick. Book smarts and football smarts are different. LJ will go through reads. Refreshing after watching Flacco for so long.

[*rfaulk34*]

(09-12-2020, 10:06 PM)Bmore Birds Wrote: Don't sleep on LJ's vision, it's already very good. Even with a nice scheme, dude only had 6 INTs. We had a lack of talent outside. Hollywood played hurt and Boykin can't run routes to save his life. At least last year, hopefully he's improved but LJ didn't trust him at all. I can say that with confidence having watched a ton of tape.

My biggest beef with Lamar is the lack of a laser arm to exploit the sidelines. He's also a smart QB, like the anti Fitzpatrick. Book smarts and football smarts are different. LJ will go through reads. Refreshing after watching Flacco for so long.

This is standard reading for "LJ".