10-20-2020, 11:31 AM
The trade deadline is Nov 3 and pretty much coincides with our bye week. One the one hand, I don't see us making any big splashes. On the other hand, I was glad to see that when ZT was asked about it earlier this week he just deferred to the front office and didn't dismiss the possibility (like he did last year).
But for most of our tradeable assets, a lot of stars would have to align just so. And one of those stars if that if we win either of the next two games, we might mathematically be in the hunt for a wildcard, and the f.o. will use that as a reason not to trade anybody.
Here's what I see as our odds of trading the following people, in roughly descending order of probability.
1. John Ross. Yeah, he sucks, but plz spare me the "Ross SUX can't catch a cold" replies for now. But there's video as recently as last year of him putting up some big time plays against Seattle, San Fran, etc, and speed is still a valuable asset. The team acquiring him need only take on his 2.8M base salary. Will a team in contention give up a 6 or 7 to see if they can squeeze at least one big play out of him to change a game? I think so. I'd put our odds of trading him at around 35% and only that low due to our usual stinginess in trading. I also posted a twitter clip about Ross reportedly asking for a trade below.
2. Carlos Dunlap. Any team acquiring him must take on his 7.8M base salary, though I assume it's actually about half that since it would be half way through the season. They can cut him in the offseason and not worry about a cap hit (that's all ours). But, why would anybody trade for an aging player who's been whining and seen on film loafing this year? My only hope is that Paul Guenther's affection for his former players saves the day here. Vegas needs pass rushers, maybe Pauly convinces the brass that he can get more out of Dunlap. They don't have much cap room, but regardless I think we'd have to agree to pay a portion of his remaining salary, like half. Still probably only a day 3 pick. I'll put the odds at maybe 5%. A team like New Orleans or Seattle might have interest.
3. AJ Green. Nearly impossible given his 18M franchise salary. Even if it's half that, and we agree to pay half of it, another team still takes on 4.5M, roughly, for a guy who looks like a garden variety possession receiver at this point. And given ZT's effusive praise of Green's leadership (I don't buy lip-reading-gate for one second), I doubt they pull the trigger. Odds 1% and that's being generous.
4. Geno Atkins. It's an 11M cap hit (again, half that I assume) for a guy who isn't even starting on the league's sorriest DL. That's a tough sell. Only teams with that kind of cap space and a need are Dallas and New England. Maybe the Guenther connection again, but I doubt it. Odds 1%.
5. Shawn Williams. I doubt the rest of the NFL sees as much value in him as we do. Unlikely our f.o. would see the 2022 7th rounder we might get as equitable return. Again, milking the Guenther connection, maybe Vegas has an injury in their back end and they come calling. Odds 0.5%
6. Billy Price. No. Per overthecap.com we'd actually lose about a 100k in cap space if we trade him, he's our backup center, and nobody in the playoff hunt will see any value there. Believe it or not I can see us getting something like a conditional 7th in 2022 this offseason, but not now. Odds 0%
7. Gio Bernard: Forget it. I think he's still in the club's plans for next year so now way they deal him.
Point being there's a chance but many stars have to align to pull these things off.
But for most of our tradeable assets, a lot of stars would have to align just so. And one of those stars if that if we win either of the next two games, we might mathematically be in the hunt for a wildcard, and the f.o. will use that as a reason not to trade anybody.
Here's what I see as our odds of trading the following people, in roughly descending order of probability.
1. John Ross. Yeah, he sucks, but plz spare me the "Ross SUX can't catch a cold" replies for now. But there's video as recently as last year of him putting up some big time plays against Seattle, San Fran, etc, and speed is still a valuable asset. The team acquiring him need only take on his 2.8M base salary. Will a team in contention give up a 6 or 7 to see if they can squeeze at least one big play out of him to change a game? I think so. I'd put our odds of trading him at around 35% and only that low due to our usual stinginess in trading. I also posted a twitter clip about Ross reportedly asking for a trade below.
2. Carlos Dunlap. Any team acquiring him must take on his 7.8M base salary, though I assume it's actually about half that since it would be half way through the season. They can cut him in the offseason and not worry about a cap hit (that's all ours). But, why would anybody trade for an aging player who's been whining and seen on film loafing this year? My only hope is that Paul Guenther's affection for his former players saves the day here. Vegas needs pass rushers, maybe Pauly convinces the brass that he can get more out of Dunlap. They don't have much cap room, but regardless I think we'd have to agree to pay a portion of his remaining salary, like half. Still probably only a day 3 pick. I'll put the odds at maybe 5%. A team like New Orleans or Seattle might have interest.
3. AJ Green. Nearly impossible given his 18M franchise salary. Even if it's half that, and we agree to pay half of it, another team still takes on 4.5M, roughly, for a guy who looks like a garden variety possession receiver at this point. And given ZT's effusive praise of Green's leadership (I don't buy lip-reading-gate for one second), I doubt they pull the trigger. Odds 1% and that's being generous.
4. Geno Atkins. It's an 11M cap hit (again, half that I assume) for a guy who isn't even starting on the league's sorriest DL. That's a tough sell. Only teams with that kind of cap space and a need are Dallas and New England. Maybe the Guenther connection again, but I doubt it. Odds 1%.
5. Shawn Williams. I doubt the rest of the NFL sees as much value in him as we do. Unlikely our f.o. would see the 2022 7th rounder we might get as equitable return. Again, milking the Guenther connection, maybe Vegas has an injury in their back end and they come calling. Odds 0.5%
6. Billy Price. No. Per overthecap.com we'd actually lose about a 100k in cap space if we trade him, he's our backup center, and nobody in the playoff hunt will see any value there. Believe it or not I can see us getting something like a conditional 7th in 2022 this offseason, but not now. Odds 0%
7. Gio Bernard: Forget it. I think he's still in the club's plans for next year so now way they deal him.
Point being there's a chance but many stars have to align to pull these things off.
From @gmfb: #Bengals WR John Ross approached the team about a trade recently. The speedster, in the last year of his rookie deal, hasn't been playing much of late and wants a fresh start if that's going to continue being the case. pic.twitter.com/0LbfY9ODb4
— Mike Garafolo (@MikeGarafolo) October 20, 2020
