Ngakoue traded to Ravens...what could Bengals' players fetch?

[*ochocincos*]

(10-23-2020, 09:37 AM)TJHoushmandzadeh Wrote: You're not going to get any comp picks for them though if you are spending big in free agency, which everyone here seems to agree is a must in order to fix the O-line.

The way you manage this is to have splurges in free agency in say even years and let players walk in odd years. Players who would attract a compensation pick in an even year instead of being allowed to hit free agency would be traded to a team who would be able to claim that compensatory pick.


You don't collect 5th-7th round picks expecting day one starters. You collect them in the hope of finding a starter in year 3. By that stage it's a numbers game so the more lottery tickets you have, the greater the chance of winning.

Comp picks are primarily based of number of players signed vs number of players who left.
So if the Bengals just sign 2 studs and 1 mediocre guy (or backup) but have 5 players walk, they should be eligible to receive 2 comp picks.
With all the guys the Bengals have set to hit FA this year, there's a good chance they end up with comp picks even if they do sign a couple new guys from outside.

[*Synric*]

I know no one wants to hear it but Jessie Bates is probably the best trade candidate the Bengals have at the moment. He could fetch a first or possibly two seconds.

[fredtoast]

(10-22-2020, 09:05 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Well, some of the players they traded away turned into assets that are currently on a 4-2 team. So I don’t think it’s as black and white as you’re suggesting as far as “proof” that trading away players doesn’t help.

You are right.  Sometimes those moves work, and sometimes they don't.  

I just think it is hilarious when people claim the browns are a better run organization than the Bengals.

[Rubekahn29]

(10-23-2020, 11:23 AM)Synric Wrote: I know no one wants to hear it but Jessie Bates is probably the best trade candidate the Bengals have at the moment. He could fetch a first or possibly two seconds.

Jessie bates to me is our most valuable defender, but I would hate to trade him because I think he is a building block for the future. 

[*Synric*]

(10-23-2020, 12:19 PM)Rubekahn29 Wrote: Jessie bates to me is our most valuable defender, but I would hate to trade him because I think he is a building block for the future. 

I'm not arguing to trade him I'd like to see him extended this off-season. Jessie Bates is a great centerfield safety . His range and instincts allow the Bengals to play multitudes of coverages, rotate coverages, and even run games on the back end. I'm just saying he is their best trade candidate... everyone wants to talk about how Miami gathered picks but they did that mostly by trading away their young star left tackle and star safety it wasn't just trading away aging vets on huge contracts.

[TJHoushmandzadeh's Shiny Shoes]

(10-23-2020, 11:08 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Comp picks are primarily based of number of players signed vs number of players who left.
So if the Bengals just sign 2 studs and 1 mediocre guy (or backup) but have 5 players walk, they should be eligible to receive 2 comp picks.
With all the guys the Bengals have set to hit FA this year, there's a good chance they end up with comp picks even if they do sign a couple new guys from outside.

I get that the comp picks are based on the numbers of players signed versus the number of players who have left, but if we have 5 good players walk (and if a player isn't good, are they attracting a comp pick?) we'll need to replace those 5 guys. 

That's on top of replacing at least two O-linemen.

We then need to move on from Dunlap so he'll need to be replaced as well.

That's then 8 players we need to find in the off-season, with two studs and a back-up being our total business in FA. That leaves us not only needing to hit on every player in the first 5/6 rounds of the draft but those players being ready to contribute immediately and not needing a year of development, which doesn't seem a winning strategy.

The other point is that if we're only getting picks for the weakest two of the five, we're probably only talking about 7th round comp picks. I'll take them, but I'm not basing my free agency strategy around them. It's the comp picks in the 3rd to 5th that matter and allow you to rebuild. Players like Darius Phillips, Marvin Jones, George Iloka who you can get and develop to start in a few years' time. There will be a high bust rate but when you hit it allows you an extra cost controlled player.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(10-23-2020, 11:23 AM)Synric Wrote: I know no one wants to hear it but Jessie Bates is probably the best trade candidate the Bengals have at the moment. He could fetch a first or possibly two seconds.

You are right, don't want to hear it.

[*ochocincos*]

(10-23-2020, 01:09 PM)TJHoushmandzadeh Wrote: I get that the comp picks are based on the numbers of players signed versus the number of players who have left, but if we have 5 good players walk (and if a player isn't good, are they attracting a comp pick?) we'll need to replace those 5 guys. 

That's on top of replacing at least two O-linemen.

We then need to move on from Dunlap so he'll need to be replaced as well.

That's then 8 players we need to find in the off-season, with two studs and a back-up being our total business in FA. That leaves us not only needing to hit on every player in the first 5/6 rounds of the draft but those players being ready to contribute immediately and not needing a year of development, which doesn't seem a winning strategy.

The other point is that if we're only getting picks for the weakest two of the five, we're probably only talking about 7th round comp picks. I'll take them, but I'm not basing my free agency strategy around them. It's the comp picks in the 3rd to 5th that matter and allow you to rebuild. Players like Darius Phillips, Marvin Jones, George Iloka who you can get and develop to start in a few years' time. There will be a high bust rate but when you hit it allows you an extra cost controlled player.

I totally get that.

Bengals have 26 players set to hit FA, most of which are depth players. The only starting caliber players are:
- Green
- WJ3
- Lawson
- Alexander
- Bynes

Then add the ST guys in there:
- Bullock
- Huber
- Harris
- Wilson (KR)
- Erickson (PR)

That's 10 players that would need to be replaced. Although Green's spot will be taken by Higgins, Alexander's spot can be filled by Phillips, and Bynes can be replaced by Wilson, so only depth guys may be needed. Phillips can cover KR, even though I really like Wilson in that role.

Moving on from Dunlap and/or Atkins would add another 1-2 if it happens.

The Bengals will have 7 draft picks, more if they do trades.
They also have some guys on the PS potentially worth bringing up, and can also fill a back-end depth position with a UDFA.

All I'm saying is it doesn't make sense to sign even 20 of the Bengals FAs back, and the Bengals will be able to replace up to 7 of those spots with draft picks.

If Dunlap and Atkins are off the books, that gives them another $25 mill in cap to use for others. Personally, given they got 2 big-priced FAs last season with Waynes and Reader, I'd put the extra cap toward offense. Have two early-round picks go to DL to replace Dunlap and Atkins on the roster. DT would be the bigger starter need IMO whereas DE could be Hubbard and Lawson (assuming he is re-signed) with a rotational pass rusher drafted in Rd 3 or 4. Tupou will be back next year, so they could technically could put Tupou at NT and Reader at UT, thereby not requiring a new DT draft pick to have to see 70%+ snaps.

[*rfaulk34*]

(10-22-2020, 01:48 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: If you want max value for these players, you need to talk to the players and make sure they understand where things are, and then come out and openly state that Geno, Carlos and A.J. 100% are available. Then you work the phones, create competition and make the moves.

Of course, this is the move of a front office that has a clue, which...well yeah we know how that is around here.

Nobody...and i mean nobody ever announces that their players are available. That's all done on the phone and in the back channels.

[*rfaulk34*]

(10-22-2020, 02:19 PM)Trademark Wrote: Bengals don't care about winning

For some strange reason, recently, i started reading all your posts in the voice of Eeyore. 

[TJHoushmandzadeh's Shiny Shoes]

(10-23-2020, 02:08 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I totally get that.

Bengals have 26 players set to hit FA, most of which are depth players. The only starting caliber players are:
- Green
- WJ3
- Lawson
- Alexander
- Bynes

Then add the ST guys in there:
- Bullock
- Huber
- Harris
- Wilson (KR)
- Erickson (PR)

That's 10 players that would need to be replaced. Although Green's spot will be taken by Higgins, Alexander's spot can be filled by Phillips, and Bynes can be replaced by Wilson, so only depth guys may be needed. Phillips can cover KR, even though I really like Wilson in that role.

Moving on from Dunlap and/or Atkins would add another 1-2 if it happens.

The Bengals will have 7 draft picks, more if they do trades.
They also have some guys on the PS potentially worth bringing up, and can also fill a back-end depth position with a UDFA.

All I'm saying is it doesn't make sense to sign even 20 of the Bengals FAs back, and the Bengals will be able to replace up to 7 of those spots with draft picks.

If Dunlap and Atkins are off the books, that gives them another $25 mill in cap to use for others. Personally, given they got 2 big-priced FAs last season with Waynes and Reader, I'd put the extra cap toward offense. Have two early-round picks go to DL to replace Dunlap and Atkins on the roster. DT would be the bigger starter need IMO whereas DE could be Hubbard and Lawson (assuming he is re-signed) with a rotational pass rusher drafted in Rd 3 or 4. Tupou will be back next year, so they could technically could put Tupou at NT and Reader at UT, thereby not requiring a new DT draft pick to have to see 70%+ snaps.

I think they need to re-sign WJIII and Lawson. Otherwise they'd need a high draft pick to replace their production at what are both premium positions.

One of the first two picks needs to be on O-line, along with a stud free agency signing that should be enough to solidify the O-line. The other first/second round pick would need to be on the D-line. Maybe the back-up free agent could be a Edge rebound candidate - sort of like when they looked at Shaq Barrett a few years ago - and they draft pick an interior pass rusher to succeed Geno?

AJ, Alexander are easier to replace as 3rd WR and 3rd cornerback respectively and you could maybe find a mid-round speed receiver and a slot corner but there are other needs to consider there as well.  Safety is a huge need if you let both Shawn Williams and Brandon Wilson go as there's no depth there. You probably want to try and retain Brandon Wilson for STs anyway. He and the rest of the teams specialists shouldn't be particularly expensive and I'd look to retain them all except Erickson. If you're letting AJ Green, Ross and Erickson go then you probably re-sign Mike Thomas for depth. Higgins, Boyd, mid-round draft pick, Tate, Thomas, Morgan and maybe an extra FA. I think WR is a good position to target in FA because of the Burrow factor. Try and find a rebound candidate who wants to rebuild their value on a one year deal with Burrow throwing to them. Not only can they give you value for a year but if they succeed you get a nice compensatory pick at the end of it.

Other positions I'd like to address in the mid-rounds are TE, CB and O-line depth. Uzomah is expensive and injured which is a bad combination - might this be a good area to target in FA with the Burrow factor as well? We should get a look at Adeniji before the end of the year it would help if he was a viable back-up at OT but a swing tackle is probably required. CB badly needs some depth. They'll probably have to re-sign Sims for that reason but they should be looking for some developmental prospects at CB for the longer term anyway.

That means if they can move Green/Ross/Erickson/Dunlap/Atkins/S Williams/Alexander before the trade deadline then they need to do so, even if it involves eating salary. They need the extra draft capital to fill some more of those holes. Draftees will be cheaper than FA signings and will fit better into our window (FAs will generally be declining by Burrow's 3rd and 4th years; draft picks should be ascending by then).

Of course this assumes that suitable options are there in both FA and the draft and I haven't looked at names nor what positions are strong for either. It still feels like that would be largely running to stand still. We're a long way off being able to use the draft for BPA, which is what we should be using FA to put us in a position to do.

[Murdock2420]

(10-23-2020, 03:02 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Nobody...and i mean nobody ever announces that their players are available. That's all done on the phone and in the back channels.

Didn't the Fins do this last year during their fire sale?

And I know...different sport, but it is very common in baseball to "actively shop player A."

[*ochocincos*]

(10-23-2020, 03:35 PM)TJHoushmandzadeh Wrote: I think they need to re-sign WJIII and Lawson. Otherwise they'd need a high draft pick to replace their production at what are both premium positions.

One of the first two picks needs to be on O-line, along with a stud free agency signing that should be enough to solidify the O-line. The other first/second round pick would need to be on the D-line. Maybe the back-up free agent could be a Edge rebound candidate - sort of like when they looked at Shaq Barrett a few years ago - and they draft pick an interior pass rusher to succeed Geno?

AJ, Alexander are easier to replace as 3rd WR and 3rd cornerback respectively and you could maybe find a mid-round speed receiver and a slot corner but there are other needs to consider there as well.  Safety is a huge need if you let both Shawn Williams and Brandon Wilson go as there's no depth there. You probably want to try and retain Brandon Wilson for STs anyway. He and the rest of the teams specialists shouldn't be particularly expensive and I'd look to retain them all except Erickson. If you're letting AJ Green, Ross and Erickson go then you probably re-sign Mike Thomas for depth. Higgins, Boyd, mid-round draft pick, Tate, Thomas, Morgan and maybe an extra FA. I think WR is a good position to target in FA because of the Burrow factor. Try and find a rebound candidate who wants to rebuild their value on a one year deal with Burrow throwing to them. Not only can they give you value for a year but if they succeed you get a nice compensatory pick at the end of it.

Other positions I'd like to address in the mid-rounds are TE, CB and O-line depth. Uzomah is expensive and injured which is a bad combination - might this be a good area to target in FA with the Burrow factor as well? We should get a look at Adeniji before the end of the year it would help if he was a viable back-up at OT but a swing tackle is probably required. CB badly needs some depth. They'll probably have to re-sign Sims for that reason but they should be looking for some developmental prospects at CB for the longer term anyway.

That means if they can move Green/Ross/Erickson/Dunlap/Atkins/S Williams/Alexander before the trade deadline then they need to do so, even if it involves eating salary. They need the extra draft capital to fill some more of those holes. Draftees will be cheaper than FA signings and will fit better into our window (FAs will generally be declining by Burrow's 3rd and 4th years; draft picks should be ascending by then).

Of course this assumes that suitable options are there in both FA and the draft and I haven't looked at names nor what positions are strong for either. It still feels like that would be largely running to stand still. We're a long way off being able to use the draft for BPA, which is what we should be using FA to put us in a position to do.

Uzomah is only the 17th highest paid TE in the league. I dunno if I'd worry too much about TE, as he'll basically have a full year to recover from his achilles injury and Sample will still be here. Uzomah was on pace to have a great season based on the yardage he gained the first two games.
I like Austin Ferguson from Wisconsin as a mid-round TE with receiving ability though.

I agree on re-signing WJ3, Lawson, and Wilson.
I'd also re-sign Clark Harris, Huber too for the right price.
I didn't realize this, but the Bengals have Austin Seibert for 3 more years after this, so they might view him as their K for next year. Seibert also punted in college.
The Bengals can use a late round pick or UDFA on a return specialist.


It may be worth getting a FA WR who can come on the cheaper end rather than need to invest a draft pick. Someone I'd love to have brought in who shouldn't cost too much is Josh Reynolds. Taylor is familiar with him, and he's better than Mike Thomas. He already has over 200 yards this season with LAC. He's a good fit for outside WR given his combo of size (6'3", 196 lb), speed (4.52), and skill set. He is faster than Higgins, Boyd, and Tate.

If the Bengals don't get a good FA for OG, I really hope they go OL in Rd 1. My preferences would be:
1) Sewell if available (not likely)
2) Alex Leatherwood - start at OG in 2021 and then move to RT in 2022
3) Wyatt Davis - long-time starter at RG

I really like the idea of an EDGE and DT both on Day 2.
Maybe re-sign Daniels for the right price to rotate with a DT draft pick.
The EDGE can rotate with Hubbard, Lawson, and Kareem.

[Wes Mantooth]

Regarding comp picks, I wouldn't expect us to get any this year. Someone that is more knowledgeable than me can probably better explain this, but this is how I understand it.

1.) You have to lose more talent than you sign. There's some sort of calculation and cancelation formula that they work out to do this. But with us already projected to have 30 mil in space at the reduced 175, and with us likely to move on from Geno and Carlos, I'd look for us to be pretty proactive in free agency.

I think we currently are projected to have the 10th most space. Add in Geno and Carlos to that total, and I think we'll most likely cancel out any talent that leaves by bringing in new talent.

2.) I'm 99.9% sure that AJ is not eligible for any draft compensation for us. It's eiter due to him being franchised and/or it's his age. I'm almost postive I read this somewhere.

[Destro]

(10-23-2020, 09:37 AM)TJHoushmandzadeh Wrote: You don't collect 5th-7th round picks expecting day one starters. You collect them in the hope of finding a starter in year 3. By that stage it's a numbers game so the more lottery tickets you have, the greater the chance of winning.

Yeah, I know. Was just speaking to some who think we can trade away the unwanted players and get great players back in trade. 

[Benton]

(10-22-2020, 01:00 PM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: Is he the guy that demanded out of Jacksonville? I wonder why they traded him so quickly. Smells like an attitude problem but maybe Vikings realize it’s a lost year.

Unfortunately I don’t think any of our vets are going to net high picks due to a few reasons. Large contracts, lack of production, could be free agents at the end of the year. None of them have been impactful enough like Ngakoue has to warrant a trade right now IMO.

He was on a short contract for a decent amount of money. Minnesota is in a rebuild so makes sense to get picks while they can.

[jj22]

Sounds like they learned nothing from last season missed opportunities to better the roster with draft picks.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/report-bengals-asking-prices-during-trade-talks-seem-unreasonable/ar-BB1aljup?ocid=msedgntp

[Nicomo Cosca]

(10-23-2020, 11:23 AM)Synric Wrote: I know no one wants to hear it but Jessie Bates is probably the best trade candidate the Bengals have at the moment. He could fetch a first or possibly two seconds.

Bates is on a very short list (along with Burrow and Jonah) of players I’d pretty much consider untouchable at this point. It would take a ridiculous offer for me to even think about it. We haven’t had a safety like him since Reggie Nelson, and he should absolutely be part of the core we build around.

[*ochocincos*]

(10-23-2020, 07:50 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Regarding comp picks, I wouldn't expect us to get any this year.  Someone that is more knowledgeable than me can probably better explain this, but this is how I understand it.

1.) You have to lose more talent than you sign.  There's some sort of calculation and cancelation formula that they work out to do this.  But with us already projected to have 30 mil in space at the reduced 175, and with us likely to move on from Geno and Carlos, I'd look for us to be pretty proactive in free agency.

I think we currently are projected to have the 10th most space.  Add in Geno and Carlos to that total, and I think we'll most likely cancel out any talent that leaves by bringing in new talent.

2.) I'm 99.9% sure that AJ is not eligible for any draft compensation for us.  It's eiter due to him being franchised and/or it's his age.  I'm almost postive I read this somewhere.

Any player who is over the age of 30 and has accrued 10+ seasons cannot return higher than a 5th round comp pick.
This is technically AJ's 10th year in the league, even though he didn't play all of last season.
If Dunlap and Atkins are kept through their contracts, they would fall under the same category.

[jj22]

The question with Bates and or Lawson is will they re-sign them? If no, then they should be looking to trade them.