DL worth Top 15 selection?

[*ochocincos*]

(11-04-2020, 01:13 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: First round has to be somebody who can directly help Burrow. Be it catching passes or giving him more time to throw passes.

Can't get a 1st overall franchise QB and not surround him with all the help you can possibly get him. OL or TE almost has to be the pick (or WR if Chase is somehow available there).

There's times where it is okay to cruise through the draft with BPA. This will not be one of those times.

If that's the goal for 1st round, here's my input...
Williams, Hopkins, and Spain are all good pass blockers. Spain has had a PFF pass blocking score of 70+ every year except this year. I would sign Spain for 2021+.
XSF was good pass blocking in Game 1 this year and also last year as a backup in DAL, but he's not been as consistently good as Spain has been.
Bobby Hart has improved in his pass blocking as the season has gone on, but he'd arguably be the weakest pass blocker of the current starting OL assuming Spain and XSF both start over Jordan.

For WR, I like Waddle or Smith if Chase isn't available.
For TE, I like Pitts and Freiermuth.
For OT, I like Leatherwood if Sewell isn't available.
For OG, I like Wyatt Davis. Leatherwood can also play OG.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(11-04-2020, 02:44 PM)ochocincos Wrote: If that's the goal for 1st round, here's my input...
Williams, Hopkins, and Spain are all good pass blockers. Spain has had a PFF pass blocking score of 70+ every year except this year.
XSF was good pass blocking in Game 1 this year and also last year as a backup in DAL, but he's not been as consistently good as Spain has been.
Bobby Hart has improved in his pass blocking as the season has gone on, but he'd arguably be the weakest pass blocker of the current starting OL assuming Spain and XSF both start over Jordan.

With that said, I would see OL, TE, or WR then.
For WR, I like Waddle or Smith if Chase isn't available.
For TE, I like Pitts and Freiermuth.
For OT, I like Leatherwood if Sewell isn't available.
For OG, I like Wyatt Davis. Leatherwood can also play OG.

Almost think that has to be the goal of the first 2 rounds, with 1 of the 2 HAVING to be an OL. Then you can go BPA or address other needs.

I think Jonah is fine to keep around (though if you can get a better LT say in FA, 100% move Williams to a different spot on the line) and that's the only current OL I would be willing to commit to being a starter in 2021. Gotta go big in draft/FA/trade this coming offseason.

You can probably manage to put together a good OL with Hopkins as a starter, but you will need significant upgrades at both G spots for that to happen. I think he's okay as a weak link starter, but if you're counting on him to be your 2nd or 3rd (or possibly even 4th) best OL, you're in serious trouble. The Reds actually ran into this problem over the previous few years. An abundance of guys who are JUST good enough to be a tolerable starter, but if you have more than one or two of those guys, all of a sudden you look around and it's just a team full of fringe starters... which is a bad team.


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As for the actual players in the draft, I haven't looked into it a ton yet so I don't know all those guys, but I have to imagine that the Bengals will pick too late for Sewell or Chase. The win over the Titans put them at 2.5, and they still play DC and the Giants (and possibly can add the Cowboys to that list of likely wins). 4.5 or 5.5 wins probably knocks them to the 8th-12th pick range.

[*Synric*]

The Bengals NEED a dominate edge defender someone that can create negative plays consistently and keep other QBs uncomfortable. Issue is will there be one where they are picking?

[*ochocincos*]

(11-04-2020, 02:57 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Almost think that has to be the goal of the first 2 rounds, with 1 of the 2 HAVING to be an OL. Then you can go BPA or address other needs.

I think Jonah is fine to keep around (though if you can get a better LT say in FA, 100% move Williams to a different spot on the line) and that's the only current OL I would be willing to commit to being a starter in 2021. Gotta go big in draft/FA/trade this coming offseason.

You can probably manage to put together a good OL with Hopkins as a starter, but you will need significant upgrades at both G spots for that to happen. I think he's okay as a weak link starter, but if you're counting on him to be your 2nd or 3rd (or possibly even 4th) best OL, you're in serious trouble. The Reds actually ran into this problem over the previous few years. An abundance of guys who are JUST good enough to be a tolerable starter, but if you have more than one or two of those guys, all of a sudden you look around and it's just a team full of fringe starters... which is a bad team.


- - - - - - - - -

As for the actual players in the draft, I haven't looked into it a ton yet so I don't know all those guys, but I have to imagine that the Bengals will pick too late for Sewell or Chase. The win over the Titans put them at 2.5, and they still play DC and the Giants (and possibly can add the Cowboys to that list of likely wins). 4.5 or 5.5 wins probably knocks them to the 8th-12th pick range.

The Bengals won't have enough cap space to "go big" in FA unless they let their big-name internal FAs walk.
I think you're discounting Spain, and you're undervaluing Jonah Williams, who has had less than half a season of starts but is already the team's best OL. And Williams is better than any OL in this draft class other than Sewell IMO. There are a couple LTs hitting FA worth pursuing if the team wanted, but we know how much they like Hart.

My gut tells me they stick with Williams, Hart, Hopkins, and two of Spain, XSF, and Jordan as the planned starters for next year.
I think they use most of their available cap on attempting to re-sign their own guys unless those guys don't want to be back.

Some people don't want to admit it, but I actually think DL and LB are worse than the OL right now. The offense is still putting up points but the defense isn't stopping people. They can't stop the run and they can't rush the passer. If the defense can improve, it should mean Burrow has to throw less, and thus also indirectly helps keep him upright.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(11-04-2020, 03:22 PM)ochocincos Wrote: The Bengals won't have enough cap space to "go big" in FA unless they let their big-name internal FAs walk.
I think you're discounting Spain, and you're undervaluing Jonah Williams, who has had less than half a season of starts but is already the team's best OL. And Williams is better than any OL in this draft class other than Sewell IMO. There are a couple LTs hitting FA worth pursuing if the team wanted, but we know how much they like Hart.

My gut tells me they stick with Williams, Hart, Hopkins, and two of Spain, XSF, and Jordan as the planned starters for next year.
I think they use most of their available cap on attempting to re-sign their own guys unless those guys don't want to be back.

Some people don't want to admit it, but I actually think DL and LB are worse than the OL right now. The offense is still putting up points but the defense isn't stopping people. They can't stop the run and they can't rush the passer. If the defense can improve, it should mean Burrow has to throw less, and thus also indirectly helps keep him upright.

The Bengals are in line to have the 6th most cap space in the NFL in the 2021 offseason. If they don't have enough, nobody does.

And even then that's assuming they don't cut any of their MANY cut candidates...

Bobby Hart: $5.9m cap savings (Assuming the coaching staff gets it's head out of it's ass.)
CJ Uzomah: $5.25m cap savings (Mediocre backup TE coming off torn achilles, real easy decision.)
Giovani Bernard: $4.1m cap savings (Mixon is a $10.7m cap hit in 2021... can't waste ~$15.5m on 2 RBs while leading in pass attempts.)
Vonn Bell: $3.5m cap savings (What a letdown.)
BJ Finney: $3.5m cap savings (Was just a throw-in to balance out money for Dunlap deal, probably would be gone if not for all the injuries.)
XSF: $2.5m cap savings (Like him as a backup, but it could offset the salary increase for adding a good G.)
Billy Price: $2.1m cap savings (Unnecessary with Spain as the IOL backup)

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If your gut is right and they stick with that OL, be prepared for another losing season. 

I don't think Taylor cares if they *need* to throw or not, they're still going to throw. Even when they have a lead and the run game is working, they're still throwing. Seems to be just what Taylor is as a playcaller. 

[*ochocincos*]

(11-04-2020, 03:50 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: The Bengals are in line to have the 6th most cap space in the NFL in the 2021 offseason. If they don't have enough, nobody does.

And even then that's assuming they don't cut any of their MANY cut candidates...

Bobby Hart: $5.9m cap savings (Assuming the coaching staff gets it's head out of it's ass.)
CJ Uzomah: $5.25m cap savings (Mediocre backup TE coming off torn achilles, real easy decision.)
Giovani Bernard: $4.1m cap savings (Mixon is a $10.7m cap hit in 2021... can't waste ~$15.5m on 2 RBs while leading in pass attempts.)
Vonn Bell: $3.5m cap savings (What a letdown.)
BJ Finney: $3.5m cap savings (Was just a throw-in to balance out money for Dunlap deal, probably would be gone if not for all the injuries.)
XSF: $2.5m cap savings (Like him as a backup, but it could offset the salary increase for adding a good G.)
Billy Price: $2.1m cap savings (Unnecessary with Spain as the IOL backup)

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If your gut is right and they stick with that OL, be prepared for another losing season. 

I don't think Taylor cares if they *need* to throw or not, they're still going to throw. Even when they have a lead and the run game is working, they're still throwing. Seems to be just what Taylor is as a playcaller. 

Yes, I know all of this already.
And you hit it on the head, hardly any team will have much cap space because the cap is expected to drop $25 mill from this year.

So we'll see one of 3 scenarios:
1) Teams will pick and choose fewer key players to give big contracts about the same value as where their peers are (e.g. WJ3 is Waynes' level, so he could get paid $14 mill a year)
2) Most FAs will sign cheaper due to the league-wide cap reduction
3) Contracts could become more backloaded to account for a cheaper cap now and increase the cap hit in the following year(s) with the expectation the cap increases again.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(11-04-2020, 04:17 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Yes, I know all of this already.
And you hit it on the head, hardly any team will have much cap space because the cap is expected to drop $25 mill from this year.

So we'll see one of 3 scenarios:
1) Teams will pick and choose fewer key players to give big contracts about the same value as where their peers are (e.g. WJ3 is Waynes' level, so he could get paid $14 mill a year)
2) Most FAs will sign cheaper due to the league-wide cap reduction
3) Contracts could become more backloaded to account for a cheaper cap now and increase the cap hit in the following year(s) with the expectation the cap increases again.

4th scenario: Players sign shorter contracts with more guaranteed money, betting on themselves while letting the cap go back up.


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Also, really hoping that WJ3 doesn't get paid big money. He's just not that guy we saw in his 2nd year.

He's an okay starter, just don't love him at big time money. $14m would tie him with Waynes as the 9th highest paid. Two top-10 paid CBs, neither of them elite. Oof

[*ochocincos*]

(11-04-2020, 04:46 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: 4th scenario: Players sign shorter contracts with more guaranteed money, betting on themselves while letting the cap go back up.


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Also, really hoping that WJ3 doesn't get paid big money. He's just not that guy we saw in his 2nd year.

He's an okay starter, just don't love him at big time money. $14m would tie him with Waynes as the 9th highest paid. Two top-10 paid CBs, neither of them elite. Oof

Good 4th option. Yes, that could happen.

In regards to WJ3, he's having a better year this year than Waynes had last year, and Waynes got $14 mill a year.
Did the Bengals overpay for Waynes? Perhaps (I think yes).
But WJ3 could (and should) point to the fact that his teammate got $14 mill/year, WJ3 has been the best CB this year, and deserves to be paid as much as Waynes got.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(11-04-2020, 05:36 PM)ochocincos Wrote: In regards to WJ3, he's having a better year this year than Waynes had last year, and Waynes got $14 mill a year.
Did the Bengals overpay for Waynes? Perhaps (I think yes).
But WJ3 could (and should) point to the fact that his teammate got $14 mill/year, WJ3 has been the best CB this year, and deserves to be paid as much as Waynes got.

Best not to double down on 1 bad decision with a 2nd bad decision.

Waynes is stuck here for at least 2021 ($10m in dead cap).

Could probably sign Richard Sherman for something like 3yr/$21m. (He's finishing a 3yr/$27m deal this year.) Not sure he'd be any worse than WJ3 over the first 2 years of that deal and then you get out of it with a little dead money right when Burrow will be getting an extension.

Just can't imagine good things coming from a team sinking $28m/yr into 2 good-not-great CBs while there's such bigger needs.

Also really want some CBs with better ball skills. WJ3 never had more than 1 in a year and Waynes hasn't had more than 1 since 2017. Waynes had 8 Pdef last year, Jackson 3.

[Jpoore]

(11-04-2020, 01:13 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: First round has to be somebody who can directly help Burrow. Be it catching passes or giving him more time to throw passes.

Can't get a 1st overall franchise QB and not surround him with all the help you can possibly get him. OL or TE almost has to be the pick (or WR if Chase is somehow available there).

There's times where it is okay to cruise through the draft with BPA. This will not be one of those times.

Completely disagree. We can score all we want but if defense can’t stop anyone? We’re in trouble. It wouldn’t be a problem at all if we weren’t bpa in 1 if 2nd round u got a olineman.

[Bengalpool]

Other than QB, RB and S, we probably should expect to take BPA in the first two rounds. CB, LB, DE, OL, WR and TE. Not in that order, but if you have a CB at the top of your big board still available, you take the CB over reaching for another position. Could be the next Richard Sherman/Darrell Revis. They can make a case for at least 6 different positions in the first two rounds. Be ready for it.

[Au165]

Saw this a few minutes ago and it's where I have been for a little while now.

Burrow needs help upfront, but with it being a deep OL class, the Bengals don’t need to force an OL pick in the first. Rousseau or Paye + a 2nd round OL would be a great start for CIN. https://t.co/Zj4EM0mhCG

— Jordan Reid (@JReidNFL) November 9, 2020

[*ochocincos*]

(11-09-2020, 11:46 AM)Au165 Wrote: Saw this a few minutes ago and it's where I have been for a little while now.

Burrow needs help upfront, but with it being a deep OL class, the Bengals don’t need to force an OL pick in the first. Rousseau or Paye + a 2nd round OL would be a great start for CIN. https://t.co/Zj4EM0mhCG

— Jordan Reid (@JReidNFL) November 9, 2020

I'm getting more and more into trading back ~5 spots to get an extra 2nd rounder (if a team would be interested obviously).

[Au165]

(11-09-2020, 02:07 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I'm getting more and more into trading back ~5 spots to get an extra 2nd rounder (if a team would be interested obviously).

I think  if those two guys are gone when we pick it makes sense because there is a pretty big gap in my mind to the next set of rushers. I would be okay with a trade back and consider a CB as this is a really nice CB class at the top end.

[*ochocincos*]

(11-09-2020, 03:15 PM)Au165 Wrote: I think  if those two guys are gone when we pick it makes sense because there is a pretty big gap in my mind to the next set of rushers. I would be okay with a trade back and consider a CB as this is a really nice CB class at the top end.

I'm not sold on Paye being a Top 15 draft pick quite yet. I've seen him mentioned as early as the 20's and as late as the 40's.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(11-09-2020, 02:07 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I'm getting more and more into trading back ~5 spots to get an extra 2nd rounder (if a team would be interested obviously).

We’re still getting over the last trade back...

[Whatever]

(11-09-2020, 02:07 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I'm getting more and more into trading back ~5 spots to get an extra 2nd rounder (if a team would be interested obviously).

I think it will be very tough to trade back this year due to the salary cap going down.  Teams are not going to want to give up those cheap rookie contracts.  It would honestly be a good year to try and move up since there will be a ton of cap strapped teams with thin depth charts.

[Jpoore]

(11-02-2020, 09:40 PM)coachmcneil71 Wrote: Not sure about top 15 but I like Wilson and Haskell. They both have good skill sets for the next level.

Wilson isn’t draft eligible till next year