(11-10-2020, 10:32 AM)fredtoast Wrote: You don't have to write ten pages just to agree with me.
I have always said he has the potential to be a very good QB. But that is not enough for some people.
I just find it funny that the same people that for years demanded that a QB prove he can win big games before he be anointed as great are now frothing at the mouth over a QB who has not accomplished anything of note in the NFL. And that people who used to cliam that great QB don't need to be surrounded by great players because they "make everyone around them better" are now saying "We have to get an O-line and a better TE, and a better play caller so Burrow can win".
I am thrilled that we had a chance to get one of the best QB prospects in years when we crashed so bad to get the #1 overall pick. We had to move on from Dalton. But I have always had a more realistic view of Burrow because I actually watched him play in 2018 when he was in his 4th season of college ball but did not have a record number of NFL draft picks or an NFL level OC. He was good but far from great.
He was a much higher rated prospect than Dalton. He should become a much better NFL QB, but just a few months ago people were telling me he did not need an O-line because he was better under pressure than throwing from a clean pocket. And that he was going to fix our offense just by "holding players accountable". Those are the people I have most disagreements with. But unfortunately any comment that is less than "Burrow can walk on water" is considered "hate" around here right now.
Patently false. He’s already set how many rookie records through half a season?
(11-10-2020, 10:32 AM)fredtoast Wrote: But unfortunately any comment that is less than "Burrow can walk on water" is considered "hate" around here right now.
(11-10-2020, 11:12 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Patently false. He’s already set how many rookie records through half a season?
He has set yardage marks because he is leading the league in pass attempts.
Jameis Winstead had more passing yards than any QB last year. How great do you think he was?
Through his first 8 games Joe has attempted more passes (330) than any rookie QB except Andrew Luck. Luck only had 6 more attempts than Burrow, but had over 130 more yards. Burrows yards per attempt through his firs 8 games (6.88) ranks 28th in league history. Justin Hebert is averaging a full yard more per attempt (7.98) than Burrow. Last year Gardner Minshew (7.60) averaged more than half a yard more than Burrow in his first 8 games. So did one of the biggest draft busts in history, Geno Smith (7.44).
(11-09-2020, 10:09 PM)QueenCity Wrote: Fred... I'm all for people playing devils advocate as I do it myself.
How can you accuse me of playing Devil's advocate when all I have done is remain consistent in my opinion.
I have always said that QBs need talented players around them to win. It is everyone else who has changed their opinion about this.
Same with a WR making a QB look good. It used to be that when AJ made a great catch he was "making Dalton look good", but when Higgens made an unbelievable sideline grab last game it was cited as proof that Joe was getting better at throwing the deep ball.
If I was just playing Devil's advocate my opinion would constantly be flip-flopping. But my opinion has not changed. Everyone else's has.
(11-10-2020, 02:38 PM)fredtoast Wrote: He has set yardage marks because he is leading the league in pass attempts.
Jameis Winstead had more passing yards than any QB last year. How great do you think he was?
Through his first 8 games Joe has attempted more passes (330) than any rookie QB except Andrew Luck. Luck only had 6 more attempts than Burrow, but had over 130 more yards. Burrows yards per attempt through his firs 8 games (6.88) ranks 28th in league history. Justin Hebert is averaging a full yard more per attempt (7.98) than Burrow. Last year Gardner Minshew (7.60) averaged more than half a yard more than Burrow in his first 8 games. So did one of the biggest draft busts in history, Geno Smith (7.44).
Throwing a ton doesn’t automatically equal setting records or they’d be broken all the time. This is not that hard to understand. And it certainly doesn’t mean you’re going to a actually complete enough passes. You have you know...actually be really good. He’s also set records for most attempts without an INT, records for 400 yard passing games along with a rushing TD, etc.
And if Winston didn’t throw 30 INT’s those numbers would look fantastic, and he’d still have a starting job. Joe is on pace for 10.
(11-10-2020, 02:48 PM)fredtoast Wrote: How can you accuse me of playing Devil's advocate when all I have done is remain consistent in my opinion.
I have always said that QBs need talented players around them to win. It is everyone else who has changed their opinion about this.
Same with a WR making a QB look good. It used to be that when AJ made a great catch he was "making Dalton look good", but when Higgens made an unbelievable sideline grab last game it was cited as proof that Joe was getting better at throwing the deep ball.
If I was just playing Devil's advocate my opinion would constantly be flip-flopping. But my opinion has not changed. Everyone else's has.
More lies. Everyone was praising *Higgins* (get the kid’s name right ffs) for his “Chad like footwork” not the throw from Burrow. There might have been a comment or two about the throw, but the overwhelming majority were about the CATCH. But that’s what you do, you take something one person says and try to present it as more than it was.
(11-10-2020, 09:23 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Throwing a ton doesn’t automatically equal setting records or they’d be broken all the time. This is not that hard to understand
And getting a lot of yards because you throw the ball a lot does not automatically mean you are an elite QB either. This is not that hard to understand.
(11-10-2020, 09:35 PM)fredtoast Wrote: And getting a lot of yards because you throw the ball a lot does not automatically mean you are an elite QB either. This is not that hard to understand.
Elite like Mahomes, Rodgers, Wilson, etc? Ofc not. He’s played 8 games. He looks like he certainly could be in the near future though.
(11-10-2020, 02:38 PM)fredtoast Wrote: He has set yardage marks because he is leading the league in pass attempts.
Jameis Winstead had more passing yards than any QB last year. How great do you think he was?
Through his first 8 games Joe has attempted more passes (330) than any rookie QB except Andrew Luck. Luck only had 6 more attempts than Burrow, but had over 130 more yards. Burrows yards per attempt through his firs 8 games (6.88) ranks 28th in league history. Justin Hebert is averaging a full yard more per attempt (7.98) than Burrow. Last year Gardner Minshew (7.60) averaged more than half a yard more than Burrow in his first 8 games. So did one of the biggest draft busts in history, Geno Smith (7.44).
Same Fred, different day.
Winston also led the league in INTs. Having had to air it out as much as Burrow has, and only having 5 INTs is amazing. Clearly, another stat you avoided because it doesn't make your cherry-picked argument.
And if you have been watching, his YPA have been increasing game over game. He has started to build a chemistry and has some more reliable targets now in Boyd, Higgins, and Tate whereas Green had a horrible targets-to-completion % early in the year. You contradict yourself in your post by talking about his poor YPA and how many times he has thrown the ball leading to his yardage totals by ignoring his 67% completion percentage.
Here are his last five games, in order oldest to most recent. The last two games, Huber had a TOTAL of three punts. They were never two scores behind dictating he had to throw. Look at his completion % in those games.
69.4
63.3
64.4
74.4%
70.2%
Again, doing all this without much of a rushing attack or offensive line. Best part is...he is still getting better each week.
(11-10-2020, 02:38 PM)fredtoast Wrote: He has set yardage marks because he is leading the league in pass attempts.
Jameis Winstead had more passing yards than any QB last year. How great do you think he was?
Through his first 8 games Joe has attempted more passes (330) than any rookie QB except Andrew Luck. Luck only had 6 more attempts than Burrow, but had over 130 more yards. Burrows yards per attempt through his firs 8 games (6.88) ranks 28th in league history. Justin Hebert is averaging a full yard more per attempt (7.98) than Burrow. Last year Gardner Minshew (7.60) averaged more than half a yard more than Burrow in his first 8 games. So did one of the biggest draft busts in history, Geno Smith (7.44).
The thing that you're missing is the difficulty in his throws.
Per Next Gen stats, Burrow has the 2nd highest Completion % Over Expected in the league behind Russell Wilson at +5.7%.
He also has the 2nd highest % of throws to targets with a defender within a yard of them at 22%.
Those stats combined together show us that Burrow is making his receivers look better than they actually are by threading the proverbial needle to them while they are blanketed. It's very impressive for a rookie in his first 8 games to be elevating his supporting cast. Usually, it's the other way around.
Not to butt in here or anything but no one in their right mind thinks Winston is a good quarterback and I can't believe someone would suggest Burrow's passing yardage(as a rookie I might add) isn't impressive because Winston led the league last year. Winston also threw thirty interceptions. An absolutely mind boggling number. It's the total body of work. You can't cherry pick stats to spin your narrative, it just makes you look even more wrong than you actually are.
(11-11-2020, 02:21 PM)AlphaBengal Wrote: . You can't cherry pick stats to spin your narrative, it just makes you look even more wrong than you actually are.
Exactly. That is what I have been saying all along.
You can't cherry pick total yards and just ignore all the other stats (comp%, int%, td%, Yd/att) that go into the pass efficiency rating which has Burrow ranked as the 24th QB in the league.
(11-11-2020, 02:42 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Exactly. That is what I have been saying all along.
You can't cherry pick total yards and just ignore all the other stats (comp%, int%, td%, Yd/att) that go into the pass efficiency rating which has Burrow ranked as the 24th QB in the league.
No one is ignoring the other stats though. Particularly the ones in bold. They’re mentioned quite a bit when discussing Burrow, and are really good. Especially for a rookie.
Carson Palmer’s comp% as a *rookie: 60.9
Andy Dalton’s comp% as a rookie: 58.1
Joe Burrow’s: 67.0
It’s mind boggling anyone would work this hard to try and downplay how good this kid has started off.
(11-11-2020, 05:49 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: No one is ignoring the other stats though. Particularly the ones in bold. They’re mentioned quite a bit when discussing Burrow, and are really good. Especially for a rookie.
Carson Palmer’s comp% as a *rookie: 60.9
Andy Dalton’s comp% as a rookie: 58.1
Joe Burrow’s: 67.0
It’s mind boggling anyone would work this hard to try and downplay how good this kid has started off.
*1st season that he played anyway
Through the first nine weeks of his career Burrow ranks 18th in the league in completion percentage.
Through the first nine weeks of his career Dalton ranked 14th in the league in completion percentage.
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If you're thinking you might click on a thread that will stay somewhat on topic (boring), or that you'll see a lot of differing opinons (also boring), don't fret! Every thread here in JN is succeptable to Fred completely taking it over, and changing it into his own personal debate.
So if that's you're thing, and let's be honest, who doesn't like it, then this is the place for you! The man with 30k posts, and all of the time in the world, is here for all of our entertainment. Here's a guy that has taken the excitement of courtroom to a message board.
Round of applause for Fred everyone. He's done it again, another masterpiece!
(11-11-2020, 06:41 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: It's the Fred Show everybody! Hope all you members and lurkers are enjoying it.
If you're thinking you might click on a thread that will stay somewhat on topic (boring), or that you'll see a lot of differing opinons (also boring), don't fret! Every thread here in JN is succeptable to Fred completely taking it over, and changing it into his own personal debate.
So if that's you're thing, and let's be honest, who doesn't like it, then this is the place for you! The man with 30k posts, and all of the time in the world, is here for all of our entertainment. Here's a guy that has taken the excitement of courtroom to a message board.
Round of applause for Fred everyone. He's done it again, another masterpiece!
1. I can't debate myself. It doesn't matter if you are interested or not, others obviously are.
2. At least I am talking football instead of obsessing over another board member.
(11-11-2020, 06:33 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Through the first nine weeks of his career Burrow ranks 18th in the league in completion percentage.
Through the first nine weeks of his career Dalton ranked 14th in the league in completion percentage.
Dalton’s # of attempts through his first 8 games: 257
Burrow’s # of attempts through his first 8 games: 330
That’s about 2 full games worth more (at least). You could just admit Burrow’s comp% is pretty good considering how much he’s throwing it, and leave it at that...
(11-11-2020, 11:53 AM)Whatever Wrote: The thing that you're missing is the difficulty in his throws.
Per Next Gen stats, Burrow has the 2nd highest Completion % Over Expected in the league behind Russell Wilson at +5.7%.
He also has the 2nd highest % of throws to targets with a defender within a yard of them at 22%.
Those stats combined together show us that Burrow is making his receivers look better than they actually are by threading the proverbial needle to them while they are blanketed. It's very impressive for a rookie in his first 8 games to be elevating his supporting cast. Usually, it's the other way around.
![[Image: 4CV0TeR.png]](https://i.imgur.com/4CV0TeR.png)
